So, coronavirus...

[TheNatalShark]

Some short but interesting analysis of available data re current and expected vaccine supply and administration continent side. As author notes, going to be a lot of sticks to wield in upcoming elections that national govs may not be able to escape from if the Nordics vaccinate by end of summer.

Odd because it wasn't too long ago Von Der Leyden reaffirmed the 70% target by end of September. Hopefully she and her team are wrong, again.

[dpedin]

Cheers Marylandolorian - interesting articles. Pop density does not explain differences in cases nor deaths between countries, it is the PH policies the Gov of those countries decide on and how well they implement them. However within a country there may be a correlation between pop density, poverty and covid19 for the reasons described in the articles. However I also think it has a lot to do with the messaging from the country/region/city leaders, their local implementation of national policies and access to basic PH and healthcare services. I haven't looked at the variation between various US states in any detail but I think it would be fascinating to see how each has performed. I am aware that there is a lot of local manipulation of covid19 data so comparisons may be difficult just now, for example I believe Florida has been less than forthcoming with covid19 data sets? Any good sites you can recommend?

I find it hard to believe that all the countries with low covid fatalities have decided on, and implemented, Public Health poilicies that are better at handling the pandemic than most of the wealthy countries with vastly superior Health infrastructures, but worse rates. I don't think anyone knows what the reason is, other than the lower average age and some poor recording of deaths (In India only 22% of deaths are medically certified). But those things certainly don't explain all the differences (and Japan has an old population and low rates). It seems to have the experts baffled.

This article, from last summer, goes through many of the possibilities. But, without a lot more research, there's no definitive conclusion - but the suggestion is that there is, for some reason, more natural immunity in those populations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/re ... tory.html

There is obviously a lot more research required to get to the bottom of this and yes some of the data can be dodgy, no one is disputing that. However for many of the factors the article, which is now 10 moths old and we have learnt a lot since then, raises there are always contradictory evidence. For example obesity is mentioned and the USA and the UK have high levels but then so does NZ. Pop density we have covered. Population size is also used but again you can compare the UK and Germany and we have double the death rate they have. Levels of deprivation, ditto. AS far as I am aware there is no evidence that shows a link between any of these factors and a countries performance with covid19.

I haven't seen anything about research into genetics providing greater/lesser immunity but was there not research in UK to show that there was no genetic reason why BAME individuals had a higher death rate here? It was because they were exposed to the virus more frequently due to the fact they were often in low pay categories and the jobs they did i.e. bus drivers, care assistants, shop workers.The other BAME group with high death rates, scandalously, were doctors and nurses at the beginning of the pandemic and this was due to exposure and the shortage of PPE.

There is some suggestion vitamin D levels, BCG coverage, etc might have an impact but more research is required. I take Bit D supplements daily.

However from most of what I have read the researchers seem to come back to is countries performance is determined by how well Governments of countries have developed and implemented policies that reflect basic Public Health guidance. Some of that is supported by local custom and practice i.e. many eastern countries don't shake hands, mask wearing is the public norm, etc.

On the back of all this I still hold the view that our Gov has performed miserably badly and has directly contributed to our horrendous death rates and our economic disaster. Slow to respond, incredibly bad messaging, poor role modelling, lack of preparation, etc etc. Over 50% of our deaths have occurred in the last 4 months of this pandemic, no feckin lessons learnt!

[Raggs]

Population density isn't granular enough at a countrywide level would be my guess. Prevalence of multi-generational households could be a decent measure, since you then have children to grandparent transmission becoming a larger factor? And it's not necessarily only going to relate directly to the density of the county/country involved.

[dpedin]

Population density isn't granular enough at a countrywide level would be my guess. Prevalence of multi-generational households could be a decent measure, since you then have children to grandparent transmission becoming a larger factor? And it's not necessarily only going to relate directly to the density of the county/country involved.

Might be, haven't seen any research on this but I have heard some suggest this is an explanation for higher levels of spread within parts of the UK with higher levels of deprivation and a BAME communities. However I am not sure the UK stands out for having more multi generational households compared to its european neighbours for example?

[Raggs]

Population density isn't granular enough at a countrywide level would be my guess. Prevalence of multi-generational households could be a decent measure, since you then have children to grandparent transmission becoming a larger factor? And it's not necessarily only going to relate directly to the density of the county/country involved.

Might be, haven't seen any research on this but I have heard some suggest this is an explanation for higher levels of spread within parts of the UK with higher levels of deprivation and a BAME communities. However I am not sure the UK stands out for having more multi generational households compared to its european neighbours for example?

I've no idea. There's also the question of single person, couples, families etc. The whole lot. With evidence suggesting children are bringing into homes, you'd think that households with more than 1 child could have higher incidents etc. I think BAME still tend to have more children than white British, which could easily expose them more often.

All things that I'm sure are being looked into, and may well have been already. Just a question of finding it, and whether the study was solely in single country, or comparative.

[Ovals]

Cheers Marylandolorian - interesting articles. Pop density does not explain differences in cases nor deaths between countries, it is the PH policies the Gov of those countries decide on and how well they implement them. However within a country there may be a correlation between pop density, poverty and covid19 for the reasons described in the articles. However I also think it has a lot to do with the messaging from the country/region/city leaders, their local implementation of national policies and access to basic PH and healthcare services. I haven't looked at the variation between various US states in any detail but I think it would be fascinating to see how each has performed. I am aware that there is a lot of local manipulation of covid19 data so comparisons may be difficult just now, for example I believe Florida has been less than forthcoming with covid19 data sets? Any good sites you can recommend?

I find it hard to believe that all the countries with low covid fatalities have decided on, and implemented, Public Health poilicies that are better at handling the pandemic than most of the wealthy countries with vastly superior Health infrastructures, but worse rates. I don't think anyone knows what the reason is, other than the lower average age and some poor recording of deaths (In India only 22% of deaths are medically certified). But those things certainly don't explain all the differences (and Japan has an old population and low rates). It seems to have the experts baffled.

This article, from last summer, goes through many of the possibilities. But, without a lot more research, there's no definitive conclusion - but the suggestion is that there is, for some reason, more natural immunity in those populations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/re ... tory.html

There is obviously a lot more research required to get to the bottom of this and yes some of the data can be dodgy, no one is disputing that. However for many of the factors the article, which is now 10 moths old and we have learnt a lot since then, raises there are always contradictory evidence. For example obesity is mentioned and the USA and the UK have high levels but then so does NZ. Pop density we have covered. Population size is also used but again you can compare the UK and Germany and we have double the death rate they have. Levels of deprivation, ditto. AS far as I am aware there is no evidence that shows a link between any of these factors and a countries performance with covid19.

I haven't seen anything about research into genetics providing greater/lesser immunity but was there not research in UK to show that there was no genetic reason why BAME individuals had a higher death rate here? It was because they were exposed to the virus more frequently due to the fact they were often in low pay categories and the jobs they did i.e. bus drivers, care assistants, shop workers.The other BAME group with high death rates, scandalously, were doctors and nurses at the beginning of the pandemic and this was due to exposure and the shortage of PPE.

There is some suggestion vitamin D levels, BCG coverage, etc might have an impact but more research is required. I take Bit D supplements daily.

However from most of what I have read the researchers seem to come back to is countries performance is determined by how well Governments of countries have developed and implemented policies that reflect basic Public Health guidance. Some of that is supported by local custom and practice i.e. many eastern countries don't shake hands, mask wearing is the public norm, etc.

On the back of all this I still hold the view that our Gov has performed miserably badly and has directly contributed to our horrendous death rates and our economic disaster. Slow to respond, incredibly bad messaging, poor role modelling, lack of preparation, etc etc. Over 50% of our deaths have occurred in the last 4 months of this pandemic, no feckin lessons learnt!

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

[Sandstorm]

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

Let me help you:

[Ovals]

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

Let me help you:

[Sandstorm]

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

Let me help you:

Is that Gatwick South Terminal Arrivals?

[FalseBayFC]

Oh, I definitely agree with the last para. I just fail to see how some countries, that appear to have done even less to mitigate transmission and the consequences of illness, have outperformed the UK in terms of death rates, to such an enormous margin. And I can't find any recent studies that really get to the bottom of the issues.

Let me help you:

These countries have low testing rates, poor death reporting protocols and zero post mortem testing. You cannot rely on data from countries with health systems like Bangladesh or South Africa.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Let me help you:

Is that Gatwick South Terminal Arrivals?

There are people there with their luggage.

So No.

[Saint]

[Sandstorm]

[Ovals]

Is that Gatwick South Terminal Arrivals?

There are people there with their luggage.

So No.

Very Good

[Ovals]

Let me help you:

These countries have low testing rates, poor death reporting protocols and zero post mortem testing. You cannot rely on data from countries with health systems like Bangladesh or South Africa.

Nonetheless - it is still fairly evident that India, for example, has a far lower death rate than the UK. I think someone would have noticed if they'd had >1 million covid deaths - which is what it would be at our levels

[Raggs]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

[Ovals]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

Except that the vast majority of Covid deaths would have come in short spaces of time, so would be far more noticeable. I believe thay have a fairly good idea of the number of deaths in India but that many just aren't accompanied by a medical cert - but 22% are. At the moment, India are recording about 7% of the Covid death rate of the UK - that's too big a difference to be explained by poor records - Especially given the spotlight on Covid. And that's just India - there's many more countries with substantially lower death rates.

[FalseBayFC]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

Except that the vast majority of Covid deaths would have come in short spaces of time, so would be far more noticeable. I believe thay have a fairly good idea of the number of deaths in India but that many just aren't accompanied by a medical cert - but 22% are. At the moment, India are recording about 7% of the Covid death rate of the UK - that's too big a difference to be explained by poor records - Especially given the spotlight on Covid. And that's just India - there's many more countries with substantially lower death rates.

Well it is noticable in South Africa. We have about 140000 excess deaths with only 49000 accounted for by Covid. In South Africa a rural death can and is often recorded by a village elder or policeman. No medical professional is required.

[Raggs]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

Except that the vast majority of Covid deaths would have come in short spaces of time, so would be far more noticeable. I believe thay have a fairly good idea of the number of deaths in India but that many just aren't accompanied by a medical cert - but 22% are. At the moment, India are recording about 7% of the Covid death rate of the UK - that's too big a difference to be explained by poor records - Especially given the spotlight on Covid. And that's just India - there's many more countries with substantially lower death rates.

I doubt they've missed that many in truth, but I really suspect there's a lot more out there that aren't seen as covid. And yes, if you read articles, you can get a sense of just how many don't reach the governmental levels.

Another strong factor is probably just their age range. Under 6% are over 65, in the UK it's closer to 18%.

[Biffer]

1 million is less than 0.1% of India's population. Considering around 2/3rds live in poverty, would it be that shocking to find out that a lot of deaths simply aren't recorded properly? People have been noticing that the numbers don't really add up that well.

Yeah, there's probably at least 15 million deaths a year in India. Would a million extra really be noticed immediately? Particularly if they're amongst the poorest where they might not be in hospital anyway?

[FalseBayFC]

Also very high rates of obesity and other first world lifestyle diseases mean the USA and Europe have a lot of comorbidity out there.

[Marylandolorian]

Also very high rates of obesity and other first world lifestyle diseases mean the USA and Europe have a lot of comorbidity out there.

This is also a following of dpedin and Ovals conversation

Yes it’s one of the main reasons, lot of unhealthy people all over the US with a big percentage in the black-poor communities.
We are 4% of the world pop, with about a 1/4 of the total cases and 20% of the deaths.
These numbers are mainly due to Trump and the people’s behavior. It became political, in every states, red counties (Rep) have a much higher % of covid than the blue ones, Democrats wear mask.

[TheNatalShark]

Some short but interesting analysis of available data re current and expected vaccine supply and administration continent side. As author notes, going to be a lot of sticks to wield in upcoming elections that national govs may not be able to escape from if the Nordics vaccinate by end of summer.

Odd because it wasn't too long ago Von Der Leyden reaffirmed the 70% target by end of September. Hopefully she and her team are wrong, again.

Looks like AZ believes it will also substantially miss second quarter targets to EU by more than half again, so above plans go up in smoke (again)

https://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSKBN2AN1ZY

[Ovals]

Also very high rates of obesity and other first world lifestyle diseases mean the USA and Europe have a lot of comorbidity out there.

This is also a following of dpedin and Ovals conversation

Yes it’s one of the main reasons, lot of unhealthy people all over the US with a big percentage in the black-poor communities.
We are 4% of the world pop, with about a 1/4 of the total cases and 20% of the deaths.
These numbers are mainly due to Trump and the people’s behavior. It became political, in every states, red counties (Rep) have a much higher % of covid than the blue ones, Democrats wear mask.

The age thing is interesting - Japan has a low covid death rate and a large old age population.

I don't think there's a simple, all encompassing answer. If there were, the experts would have sussed it by now.It'll need much deeper study to understand it.

[Saint]

Some short but interesting analysis of available data re current and expected vaccine supply and administration continent side. As author notes, going to be a lot of sticks to wield in upcoming elections that national govs may not be able to escape from if the Nordics vaccinate by end of summer.

Odd because it wasn't too long ago Von Der Leyden reaffirmed the 70% target by end of September. Hopefully she and her team are wrong, again.

Looks like AZ believes it will also substantially miss second quarter targets to EU by more than half again, so above plans go up in smoke (again)

https://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSKBN2AN1ZY

Shouldn't matter - apparently it's an inferior vaccine that no-one wants

[Sandstorm]

Also very high rates of obesity and other first world lifestyle diseases mean the USA and Europe have a lot of comorbidity out there.

This is also a following of dpedin and Ovals conversation

Yes it’s one of the main reasons, lot of unhealthy people all over the US with a big percentage in the black-poor communities.
We are 4% of the world pop, with about a 1/4 of the total cases and 20% of the deaths.
These numbers are mainly due to Trump and the people’s behavior. It became political, in every states, red counties (Rep) have a much higher % of covid than the blue ones, Democrats wear mask.

The age thing is interesting - Japan has a low covid death rate and a large old age population.

I don't think there's a simple, all encompassing answer. If there were, the experts would have sussed it by now.It'll need much deeper study to understand it.

Which expert is going to stick his neck out and say:

“BAME types are dying because they are fat and don’t follow instructions”

[Ovals]

This is also a following of dpedin and Ovals conversation

Yes it’s one of the main reasons, lot of unhealthy people all over the US with a big percentage in the black-poor communities.
We are 4% of the world pop, with about a 1/4 of the total cases and 20% of the deaths.
These numbers are mainly due to Trump and the people’s behavior. It became political, in every states, red counties (Rep) have a much higher % of covid than the blue ones, Democrats wear mask.

The age thing is interesting - Japan has a low covid death rate and a large old age population.

I don't think there's a simple, all encompassing answer. If there were, the experts would have sussed it by now.It'll need much deeper study to understand it.

Which expert is going to stick his neck out and say:

“BAME types are dying because they are fat and don’t follow instructions”

Not sure that has the slightest thing to do with what we are discussing.

[Raggs]

The age thing is interesting - Japan has a low covid death rate and a large old age population.

I don't think there's a simple, all encompassing answer. If there were, the experts would have sussed it by now.It'll need much deeper study to understand it.

Which expert is going to stick his neck out and say:

“BAME types are dying because they are fat and don’t follow instructions”

Not sure that has the slightest thing to do with what we are discussing.

I'm wondering which expert is going to ague that India isn't full of Asians...

It's obviously going to be a mix of things. I simply don't believe the results of any country that has significant slums, and struggles to keep count of it's actual population, if they don't know how many are even alive, there's no way to know how many died. A lower age skew will help against an illness that mainly hits the elderly however.

[FalseBayFC]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56167296
A study shows 4 million million people in Lagos state alone may have had Covid according to antibody tests. Their population is really young though.

[eldanielfire]

It will be interesting to see who wins - the right wing, Brexit Ultras/ERG/Covid Recovery Group who want to open everything up tomorrow or the scientists/clinicians who are urging caution and a slower and more measured unlocking over next 3-6 months. Hopefully the latter will prevail but I suspect the blonde Bumblecunt will bow to the internal pressure, wave a Union Jack, give us another 'Oh, eh, umm' speech and declare covid19 is over.

It doesn't look that way. It looks like a slow staged opening and a willingness to not go to fast if the data says so.

.......and of course Johnson over-promised and under-delivered every time he opened his mouth last year.
Perhaps he is finally taking good advice?

To be fair, I don't think anybody predicted we would be still in the pandemic a year later.

[Sandstorm]

Hello

[eldanielfire]

I would suggest that saying all of Europe across the board have failed on covid19 as much as the UK has is a bit misleading, the likes of Norway, Denmark, Finland have done much better than us with less than 25% of the deaths per million that we have had. Germany has a death rate of 50% of the UKs, ditto Ireland. Even France and Spain have a lower death rate than the UK. Belgium is worse than the UK, along with Slovenia and Italy and Portugal aren't far behind the UK. It is without doubt that the UK has done remarkably badly in responding to covid19 pandemic if you use deaths per million population as a measure of success/failure. Even allowing for some differences in recording of deaths etc the numbers don't lie. Most countries in Europe have done better, some a lot better. The question is was our UK Gov response to covid19 pandemic the root cause of our deplorable death rate? I would suggest it is.

You are correct but a couple of things should be mentioned.
We can’t compare countries with not only a population of 5 million but mainly with a density of less than 20/sq kilometer like Finland, Norway and even Danemark with others like Belgium ( 376/sq K) or the UK 68 million (270/ sq K)
My other point will be gov & people,
Germany did very well until fall, don’t forget that Merkel has a doctorate in Quantum chemistry and she believes in science as the contrary of your PM and my past moron in chief, then the German people like the Brits, Yanks French etc... decided they deserved to have fun and masks and social distancing was bs... we know the results. Almost no government were up to the task beside a few like NZ and ?..

Again pop density is not a factor - many of the SE Asia countries have higher pop density that UK yet have lower death rates and have done remarkably well compared to UK. International studies have found no correlation between pop density and covid deaths across countries, there may be some within countries but that probably reflects deprivation and poor PH and medical systems i.e. the USA? The SE Asia countries also have populations similar or larger than ours.

If we had a similar death rate per million to Germany then c60,000 lives would have been saved. If we had a similar one to Denmark the c90,000 lives would have been saved. Also something like 50% of all UK deaths have happened in the last 4 months, despite having time to learn the lessons from the previous 6 months. All the PH research I have seen suggests that the key determinant in how a country has performed in managing the pandemic and keeping deaths low is how their gov has performed in deciding and implementing good, standard PH practices - lock down quick, hard and longer than you might want, shut borders, implement robust test, track and trace, help folk to isolate and support local community based PH responses to local outbreaks.

Whilst I agree some of the international comparisons are problematic the numbers are the numbers and they tell a story, however it was Eldaniefire who made the comparison suggesting all the countries in Europe were equally as bad in managing the pandemic , I was just suggesting that the figures don't support that statement and if we go there then the UK is bottom or close to bottom of the league on almost all of the stats you look at.

I wasn't making the point all European countries were equally as bad. I said they were all bad and made pretty much the same broad mistakes. I agree absolute figures are not absolute factors, the UK would always get worse figures all things considered due to it's interconnectivity and early adopter of the strains that spread faster and easier. They were all in denial about the coming winter peak as well and what clearly worked so brilliantly in New Zealand and Australia.

[eldanielfire]

Hello

Hi.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

It doesn't look that way. It looks like a slow staged opening and a willingness to not go to fast if the data says so.

.......and of course Johnson over-promised and under-delivered every time he opened his mouth last year.
Perhaps he is finally taking good advice?

To be fair, I don't think anybody predicted we would be still in the pandemic a year later.

Before the development of vaccines which themselves look (hopefully) set to see Covid19 remain with us for at least a few years to come surely people thought the pandemic was going to stay more than a year? Unless they agreed with Trump it was going to magically go away

[JM2K6]

.......and of course Johnson over-promised and under-delivered every time he opened his mouth last year.
Perhaps he is finally taking good advice?

To be fair, I don't think anybody predicted we would be still in the pandemic a year later.

Before the development of vaccines which themselves look (hopefully) set to see Covid19 remain with us for at least a few years to come surely people thought the pandemic was going to stay more than a year? Unless they agreed with Trump it was going to magically go away

"This is not going to go away any time soon" was a common refrain from experts and commentators alike. People were talking years, from the start.

[Saint]

First Covax deliveries made to Ghana, with 600,000 doses of AZ

[dpedin]

To be fair, I don't think anybody predicted we would be still in the pandemic a year later.

Before the development of vaccines which themselves look (hopefully) set to see Covid19 remain with us for at least a few years to come surely people thought the pandemic was going to stay more than a year? Unless they agreed with Trump it was going to magically go away

"This is not going to go away any time soon" was a common refrain from experts and commentators alike. People were talking years, from the start.

I think all the experts were clearly warning this was going to be a long haul as soon as the virus began to spread in Feb/March 2020, and by that the thought many years. Trump and Boris are just numpties and if anyone believed a word they said about it going away on 14 days, by Easter, by Christmas, etc are equally just numpties! The thing that no-one expected was a vaccination with such a high level of efficacy to be developed and rolled out within 10 months and for that we have to eternally thank the scientists and, in the UK, the NHS. Having said that it will still be an issue for the world PH for many years to come.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

To be fair, I don't think anybody predicted we would be still in the pandemic a year later.

Before the development of vaccines which themselves look (hopefully) set to see Covid19 remain with us for at least a few years to come surely people thought the pandemic was going to stay more than a year? Unless they agreed with Trump it was going to magically go away

"This is not going to go away any time soon" was a common refrain from experts and commentators alike. People were talking years, from the start.

There might have been some messaging that presented short term to try and gee the population along. I don't know if the short termism in messaging is actual a useful tool in managing a population, many without any sensible scientific background (which isn't in itself sensible), especially one across so many social media platforms during a pandemic, complicated again by those who labelled the virus a hoax or piled in with the anti-vax morons. But even with the short termism in the messaging you'd like to think people could work out for themselves this wasn't vanishing inside a year when there was no reason for it to do so.

[SaintK]

To be fair, I don't think anybody predicted we would be still in the pandemic a year later.

Before the development of vaccines which themselves look (hopefully) set to see Covid19 remain with us for at least a few years to come surely people thought the pandemic was going to stay more than a year? Unless they agreed with Trump it was going to magically go away

"This is not going to go away any time soon" was a common refrain from experts and commentators alike. People were talking years, from the start.

Quite.
And as I said Johnson continued to over promise and under deliver in his usual "boosterish" manner for months. With the changes to his team in Downing St he appears to have finally started to rein all the over-optimistic bollocks in somewhat.

[Torquemada 1420]

South Africa gets in early with proposals to plug the hole created by COVID spending

https://international-adviser.com/will- ... ovid-bill/