So, coronavirus...

[Ovals]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

Exactly. And it's a fair old stretch of the imagination to suggest that some of the countries, with much lower covid death rates, have a better PH preparedness and infrastructure.

[tc27]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

[Calculon]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited sequencing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

[Raggs]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited sequencing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

Can you show me the data showing that it isn't the dominant strain?
EDIT - And that they have the British variant, not just a variant with similar mutation in one spot.

[Openside]

Had the AstraZeneca yesterday. Got the side effects, injection arm achy, ran hot a few hours ago now cold and weirdly my butt muscles ache. I might have blamed the bed but it started before bed last night. I'm also very tired.

Men don't just wear a shirt to it, put a t-shirt underneath or plan your clothes to make it easier. Way too many bare torso's on view, you have no real privacy.

Jeez I am disappointed adults need to be told this

Worse than Portobello Beach?

erm you have lost me

[Biffer]

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

Can you show me the data showing that it isn't the dominant strain?
EDIT - And that they have the British variant, not just a variant with similar mutation in one spot.

Either way, there are questions to answer. If it’s not the dominant strain, why not? If it is the dominant strain, why didn’t they have the same surge of deaths post Christmas?

This ‘oh, but new strains’ thing distracts from the point that whether we have a new strain that others don’t, or if both we and they have it, we’ve done fundamentally worse in the UK.

[dpedin]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

What bullshit! This has nothing to do with elections, that is just spurious nonsense.

There is no evidence that a country has done worse than comparable others because of obesity levels, diabetes, population demographic, population size, population density, etc. In fact all the evidence says otherwise, see the examples I gave, which is the point I am making. Of course there are risk factors associated with covid19 but to use anecdotal evidence within a country to try and explain why one country has performed significantly worse than others is just not sound. To try and explain away the UK's awful Covid19 response and one of the highest death rates when compared to similar countries or indeed many other countries by saying 'we are fatter, have more diabetes, live more densely, are older, etc' is just a nonsense and not backed up by the data, or at least any data I can find.

I also think folk misunderstand the research. It is relatively easy to look at the range of factors above by country, these are well documented already, and to look at the relationship between these and the emerging covid19 deaths from each country and the demographic of those who have died and to try and identify if there is a common factor or issue across these i.e. obesity, demographic, pop density or diabetes. There have been a number of article published which have done this high level analyses.

There may be as yet an unidentified factor which has led to the UK having double the death rate per million than Germany for example or 4 times the death rate of Norway but no-one has identified it yet. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is just because the UK has been pretty awful in its covid19 preparedness, its speed of response, its PH policies and its ability to communicate and implement these?

We can leave why the devolved countries have responded better than England to the pandemic for another day.

[Raggs]

Id say we handled it badly. The tier systems just meant lower tiers were free to get to higher. The lack of enforcement on movement between tiers meant tier 1 areas had a load of incoming traffic.

Christmas was a disaster, 1 day back at school the same.

[Calculon]

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

Exactly, I don't know the reasons for why the UK figures are that bad, I think in terms of excess deaths per capita - even worse than Belgium, but if this variant really is so much more transmissible it would quickly have become the dominant variant in all these other countries.

Can you show me the data showing that it isn't the dominant strain?
EDIT - And that they have the British variant, not just a variant with similar mutation in one spot.

It seems I made a mistake of what exactly the UK variant is, should probably do some more reading before I write shite on here. Nevertheless, similar variants with similar mutations that are though to increase rate of transmission have been found in many countries. In terms of its prevalence I'm just going on what I've read in news reports.

[Ovals]

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

What bullshit! This has nothing to do with elections, that is just spurious nonsense.

There is no evidence that a country has done worse than comparable others because of obesity levels, diabetes, population demographic, population size, population density, etc. In fact all the evidence says otherwise, see the examples I gave, which is the point I am making. Of course there are risk factors associated with covid19 but to use anecdotal evidence within a country to try and explain why one country has performed significantly worse than others is just not sound. To try and explain away the UK's awful Covid19 response and one of the highest death rates when compared to similar countries or indeed many other countries by saying 'we are fatter, have more diabetes, live more densely, are older, etc' is just a nonsense and not backed up by the data, or at least any data I can find.

I also think folk misunderstand the research. It is relatively easy to look at the range of factors above by country, these are well documented already, and to look at the relationship between these and the emerging covid19 deaths from each country and the demographic of those who have died and to try and identify if there is a common factor or issue across these i.e. obesity, demographic, pop density or diabetes. There have been a number of article published which have done this high level analyses.

There may be as yet an unidentified factor which has led to the UK having double the death rate per million than Germany for example or 4 times the death rate of Norway but no-one has identified it yet. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is just because the UK has been pretty awful in its covid19 preparedness, its speed of response, its PH policies and its ability to communicate and implement these?

We can leave why the devolved countries have responded better than England to the pandemic for another day.

It's very odd.

We know that age is a huge factor in covid mortality
We know that underlying health problems, such as diabetes, are a significant contributor to covid mortality.
We know that obesity is another factor in covid mortality
We know that transmission is more likely where people mix closely and that most hot spots within a country are in areas of high population density.

And yet, according to the 'data', none of these factors can explain why one country does worse than another.

Perplexing.

[Paddington Bear]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

[Raggs]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

A few arseholes will struggle to ruin a nationwide lockdown, since no one else is about anyway. There were 4 guys from Liverpool arrested on the Isle of Wight when it was tier 1, who'd been in numerous pubs etc. Tier systems only work if people stick to them, sure the tier 4 numbers probably improve, but they'd improve with general lockdown anyway.

[Saint]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

The biggest difference between us and most other countries I think was enforcement. Broadly speaking, in the UK the whole thing was run on trust. That's not really what happened on the continent

[I like neeps]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

[Saint]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

[Lobby]

I'm intrigued to understand how and why the English tier system failed and was not complied with when compared with lockdowns that broadly have been. I suppose by and large we're all too close together.

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

Another factor is that we simply don’t have the police numbers to enforce a strict lockdown. In England there are only 211 police officers per 100,000 people. Germany have 358, France have 429, Italy 456 and Spain 533. Policing here has also been on the basis of consent, rather than being imposed on the population.

[Saint]

What evidence is there compliance here was worse than other countries? Genuinely interesting stuff.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

Another factor is that we simply don’t have the police numbers to enforce a strict lockdown. In England there are only 211 police officers per 100,000 people. Germany have 358, France have 429, Italy 456 and Spain 533. Policing here has also been on the basis of consent, rather than being imposed on the population.

True - and when people saw Dominic take a drive (as an example) at least some decided to stop consenting.

It's impossible to quantify the effect that that escapade hade, but it definitely had some sort of impact

[tc27]

[tc27]

An expat friend in Crete tells me you can only leave the house if you text a police number and obtain a pass - if you are found outside without such a pass you are subject to a heavy fine.

Police presence far more noticeable too.

[Line6 HXFX]

It is mainly 10 years of austerity, together with zero hour contracts, and people desperate to make their not much barely survivable cash, motivated just by resentment and the terror of being out of work, with absolutely nothing to fall back on, and who were avoiding getting tested.

It was the perfect storm.

When asked Matt Hancock said it was inexplicable that people (basically the section of society that will spread it most) want to go into work here... ignoring the fact his government specifly and deliberately created this.
I mean it is no mystery, it isn't even controversial.

[Paddington Bear]

For what it's worth I'm not convinced that I'd rather have police checking papers etc than what we have.

[Saint]

Covaxin - India's "home-grown" Covid vaccine - reports 80% efficacy from Phase III completed results. It;s already being deployed in India with an Emergency use authorisation based on interim Phase III results

[Saint]

So around 2-2.5 million or so this week increasing to 4 million or so from halfway through next week then, sustained for at least a couple of weeks.

[sturginho]

For what it's worth I'm not convinced that I'd rather have police checking papers etc than what we have.

We just love freedom too much

[Saint]

And in other vaccine news, it's expected that Novavax will receive MHRA approval late-March/early-April which should significantly improve the vaccine supply situation

[TheNatalShark]

Covaxin - India's "home-grown" Covid vaccine - reports 80% efficacy from Phase III completed results. It;s already being deployed in India with an Emergency use authorisation based on interim Phase III results

Great news on a miserable day. Hopefully they can churn out production and that eases pressure on demand of local AZ production.

[Ovals]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 53341.html

Has to be taken with some caution, but basically rectrictions were tighter in France and Italy and observed/enforced better

Another factor is that we simply don’t have the police numbers to enforce a strict lockdown. In England there are only 211 police officers per 100,000 people. Germany have 358, France have 429, Italy 456 and Spain 533. Policing here has also been on the basis of consent, rather than being imposed on the population.

True - and when people saw Dominic take a drive (as an example) at least some decided to stop consenting.

It's impossible to quantify the effect that that escapade hade, but it definitely had some sort of impact

Absolutely. The rules became more like guidelines - open to interpretation and bending.

[dpedin]

I think the driver here is someones running for election in May (or not as events may unfold) on the basis on competence WRT dealing with CV19 so a narrative is being constructed.

What bullshit! This has nothing to do with elections, that is just spurious nonsense.

There is no evidence that a country has done worse than comparable others because of obesity levels, diabetes, population demographic, population size, population density, etc. In fact all the evidence says otherwise, see the examples I gave, which is the point I am making. Of course there are risk factors associated with covid19 but to use anecdotal evidence within a country to try and explain why one country has performed significantly worse than others is just not sound. To try and explain away the UK's awful Covid19 response and one of the highest death rates when compared to similar countries or indeed many other countries by saying 'we are fatter, have more diabetes, live more densely, are older, etc' is just a nonsense and not backed up by the data, or at least any data I can find.

I also think folk misunderstand the research. It is relatively easy to look at the range of factors above by country, these are well documented already, and to look at the relationship between these and the emerging covid19 deaths from each country and the demographic of those who have died and to try and identify if there is a common factor or issue across these i.e. obesity, demographic, pop density or diabetes. There have been a number of article published which have done this high level analyses.

There may be as yet an unidentified factor which has led to the UK having double the death rate per million than Germany for example or 4 times the death rate of Norway but no-one has identified it yet. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is just because the UK has been pretty awful in its covid19 preparedness, its speed of response, its PH policies and its ability to communicate and implement these?

We can leave why the devolved countries have responded better than England to the pandemic for another day.

It's very odd.

We know that age is a huge factor in covid mortality
We know that underlying health problems, such as diabetes, are a significant contributor to covid mortality.
We know that obesity is another factor in covid mortality
We know that transmission is more likely where people mix closely and that most hot spots within a country are in areas of high population density.

And yet, according to the 'data', none of these factors can explain why one country does worse than another.

Perplexing.

I can't work out if you are being deliberately thick or are simply just plain thick! I will leave it to others to point out the nonsense in your response, I'm giving up trying to explain.

[dpedin]

Lewis Goodall, BBC, quotes the OBR,

'OBR lays out the UK situation in stark terms in their first paragraph: "1 in 5 people have contracted the virus, 1 in 150 have been hospitalised and 1 in 550 have died, the 4th highest mortality rate in the world. And GDP fell 9.9 per cent in 2020, the largest decline in the G7."

Seems the OBR understand how shite the UK Gov has been in responding to the pandemic!

[C T]

Lewis Goodall, BBC, quotes the OBR,

'OBR lays out the UK situation in stark terms in their first paragraph: "1 in 5 people have contracted the virus, 1 in 150 have been hospitalised and 1 in 550 have died, the 4th highest mortality rate in the world. And GDP fell 9.9 per cent in 2020, the largest decline in the G7."

Seems the OBR understand how shite the UK Gov has been in responding to the pandemic!

It really is impressive how far people will go to make it not the governments fault. It's worrying how far ingrained people become in "their" party. Obviously of course there is the other side to this, people trying to blame the government for everything.

But the excuses people are finding. I'm confident that there are other contributing factors other than just the far too slow or far too fast (depending on if going into or coming out of lockdown) incompetence shown by our leaders... amongst other things they've mishandled. But it is at very least a large chunk of the problem.

If someone is so far into being a tory that they can't see this then they should grab a red cap and join a rally in America.

I also find the desperate clutching at straws of the successful vaccine roll out hard to comprehend. It is going well, and a big well done to everyone involved. But taking that success as a glowing example of how great the Tories are doing and ignoring everything else, no point engaging with people that far gone.

[Ovals]

What bullshit! This has nothing to do with elections, that is just spurious nonsense.

There is no evidence that a country has done worse than comparable others because of obesity levels, diabetes, population demographic, population size, population density, etc. In fact all the evidence says otherwise, see the examples I gave, which is the point I am making. Of course there are risk factors associated with covid19 but to use anecdotal evidence within a country to try and explain why one country has performed significantly worse than others is just not sound. To try and explain away the UK's awful Covid19 response and one of the highest death rates when compared to similar countries or indeed many other countries by saying 'we are fatter, have more diabetes, live more densely, are older, etc' is just a nonsense and not backed up by the data, or at least any data I can find.

I also think folk misunderstand the research. It is relatively easy to look at the range of factors above by country, these are well documented already, and to look at the relationship between these and the emerging covid19 deaths from each country and the demographic of those who have died and to try and identify if there is a common factor or issue across these i.e. obesity, demographic, pop density or diabetes. There have been a number of article published which have done this high level analyses.

There may be as yet an unidentified factor which has led to the UK having double the death rate per million than Germany for example or 4 times the death rate of Norway but no-one has identified it yet. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is just because the UK has been pretty awful in its covid19 preparedness, its speed of response, its PH policies and its ability to communicate and implement these?

We can leave why the devolved countries have responded better than England to the pandemic for another day.

It's very odd.

We know that age is a huge factor in covid mortality
We know that underlying health problems, such as diabetes, are a significant contributor to covid mortality.
We know that obesity is another factor in covid mortality
We know that transmission is more likely where people mix closely and that most hot spots within a country are in areas of high population density.

And yet, according to the 'data', none of these factors can explain why one country does worse than another.

Perplexing.

I can't work out if you are being deliberately thick or are simply just plain thick! I will leave it to others to point out the nonsense in your response, I'm giving up trying to explain.

Well, when you've stopped being obnoxious and rude - maybe you can explain what you've taken exception to. I appreciate that the evidence doesn't support that countries with higher ages, etc., have higher death rates - but I find it perplexing that that is the case, given what we know about factors that affect death rates. Why you seem to get on your high horse about it, I can't imagine. Especially when there appears to be no evidence to actually say what causes the variability in death rates between countries. Which leaves the cause as, rather, an unknown quantity.

You have suggested that the cause is around the Public Health systems - but that seems entirely anecdotal - something that you complained about others for using.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75848-2 From Nov and heavy going - but an interesting read. They seem a bit perplexed as well.

[Saint]

Lewis Goodall, BBC, quotes the OBR,

'OBR lays out the UK situation in stark terms in their first paragraph: "1 in 5 people have contracted the virus, 1 in 150 have been hospitalised and 1 in 550 have died, the 4th highest mortality rate in the world. And GDP fell 9.9 per cent in 2020, the largest decline in the G7."

Seems the OBR understand how shite the UK Gov has been in responding to the pandemic!

It really is impressive how far people will go to make it not the governments fault. It's worrying how far ingrained people become in "their" party. Obviously of course there is the other side to this, people trying to blame the government for everything.

But the excuses people are finding. I'm confident that there are other contributing factors other than just the far too slow or far too fast (depending on if going into or coming out of lockdown) incompetence shown by our leaders... amongst other things they've mishandled. But it is at very least a large chunk of the problem.

If someone is so far into being a tory that they can't see this then they should grab a red cap and join a rally in America.

I also find the desperate clutching at straws of the successful vaccine roll out hard to comprehend. It is going well, and a big well done to everyone involved. But taking that success as a glowing example of how great the Tories are doing and ignoring everything else, no point engaging with people that far gone.

There is virtually no-one on this thread who has done anything but criticise the government at various stages for how they've handled things (even Bimbo has criticised them, albeit from a very different standpoint). But there are obviously MANY different factors involved when you start looking at how well any single government has performed in terms of response to the pandemic (putting Vaccine dev and rollout to one side completely). To try and pretend that Covid impacts every country completely equally without government intervention is fallacy number one - we know with absolute certainty that that is not the case, but we also know that we are struggling to quantify both the levels of difference and exactly what the key factors are.

As for the OBR - all the oBR review is stating absolute facts. What has happened. It's manking no judgement as to fault, how we got here or anything like that. It's not assigning blame. That's not their job and to try and pretend that that's what they're doing there is fairly dumb

[Ovals]

Lewis Goodall, BBC, quotes the OBR,

'OBR lays out the UK situation in stark terms in their first paragraph: "1 in 5 people have contracted the virus, 1 in 150 have been hospitalised and 1 in 550 have died, the 4th highest mortality rate in the world. And GDP fell 9.9 per cent in 2020, the largest decline in the G7."

Seems the OBR understand how shite the UK Gov has been in responding to the pandemic!

It really is impressive how far people will go to make it not the governments fault. It's worrying how far ingrained people become in "their" party. Obviously of course there is the other side to this, people trying to blame the government for everything.

But the excuses people are finding. I'm confident that there are other contributing factors other than just the far too slow or far too fast (depending on if going into or coming out of lockdown) incompetence shown by our leaders... amongst other things they've mishandled. But it is at very least a large chunk of the problem.

If someone is so far into being a tory that they can't see this then they should grab a red cap and join a rally in America.

I also find the desperate clutching at straws of the successful vaccine roll out hard to comprehend. It is going well, and a big well done to everyone involved. But taking that success as a glowing example of how great the Tories are doing and ignoring everything else, no point engaging with people that far gone.

There is virtually no-one on this thread who has done anything but criticise the government at various stages for how they've handled things (even Bimbo has criticised them, albeit from a very different standpoint). But there are obviously MANY different factors involved when you start looking at how well any single government has performed in terms of response to the pandemic (putting Vaccine dev and rollout to one side completely). To try and pretend that Covid impacts every country completely equally without government intervention is fallacy number one - we know with absolute certainty that that is not the case, but we also know that we are struggling to quantify both the levels of difference and exactly what the key factors are.

As for the OBR - all the oBR review is stating absolute facts. What has happened. It's manking no judgement as to fault, how we got here or anything like that. It's not assigning blame. That's not their job and to try and pretend that that's what they're doing there is fairly dumb

Well put Saint. I'm certainly no supporter of the Tories - and they have certainly mishandled many aspects of this pandemic - but I'm not convinced that is the entire reason for our high death rate - there seems to be other factors, as yet unclear, at play.

The success of the vaccine programme certainly does not give this Government a free pass, but it is most welcome.

[Sandstorm]

Let’s not let this thread go the way of PR, folks. Keep it civil please.

[Ymx]

I thought it was quite telling the NHS staff said for the public to stop clapping for the overstretched NHS, and show appreciation by following the government’s guidelines.

[Ovals]

Let’s not let this thread go the way of PR, folks. Keep it civil please.

[Rinkals]

For what it's worth I'm not convinced that I'd rather have police checking papers etc than what we have.

No, but if that's the way that you want to go (and I do concur that it's preferable), then you need your leaders setting an example rather than behaving as if they are exempt.

Also, any measures implemented need to be backed up with a rational scientific methodology rather than appearing to be sucked out of some politician's thumb. Rule of six? Jesus!

[Rinkals]

It's very odd.

We know that age is a huge factor in covid mortality
We know that underlying health problems, such as diabetes, are a significant contributor to covid mortality.
We know that obesity is another factor in covid mortality
We know that transmission is more likely where people mix closely and that most hot spots within a country are in areas of high population density.

And yet, according to the 'data', none of these factors can explain why one country does worse than another.

Perplexing.

I can't work out if you are being deliberately thick or are simply just plain thick! I will leave it to others to point out the nonsense in your response, I'm giving up trying to explain.

Well, when you've stopped being obnoxious and rude - maybe you can explain what you've taken exception to. I appreciate that the evidence doesn't support that countries with higher ages, etc., have higher death rates - but I find it perplexing that that is the case, given what we know about factors that affect death rates. Why you seem to get on your high horse about it, I can't imagine. Especially when there appears to be no evidence to actually say what causes the variability in death rates between countries. Which leaves the cause as, rather, an unknown quantity.

You have suggested that the cause is around the Public Health systems - but that seems entirely anecdotal - something that you complained about others for using.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75848-2 From Nov and heavy going - but an interesting read. They seem a bit perplexed as well.

I think he thought you were being sarcastic.

I agree that the behaviour of the virus doesn't follow logic.

Which makes tackling it all the more problematic.

However, there's another aspect to this, which is that the inconsistencies of this behaviour feeds daft conspiracy theories and barmy snake-oil cures.

[Ovals]

I can't work out if you are being deliberately thick or are simply just plain thick! I will leave it to others to point out the nonsense in your response, I'm giving up trying to explain.

Well, when you've stopped being obnoxious and rude - maybe you can explain what you've taken exception to. I appreciate that the evidence doesn't support that countries with higher ages, etc., have higher death rates - but I find it perplexing that that is the case, given what we know about factors that affect death rates. Why you seem to get on your high horse about it, I can't imagine. Especially when there appears to be no evidence to actually say what causes the variability in death rates between countries. Which leaves the cause as, rather, an unknown quantity.

You have suggested that the cause is around the Public Health systems - but that seems entirely anecdotal - something that you complained about others for using.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75848-2 From Nov and heavy going - but an interesting read. They seem a bit perplexed as well.

I think he thought you were being sarcastic.

I agree that the behaviour of the virus doesn't follow logic.

Which makes tackling it all the more problematic.

However, there's another aspect to this, which is that the inconsistencies of this behaviour feeds daft conspiracy theories and barmy snake-oil cures.

I certainly don't subscribe to his notion that countries with much lowers rates, in Asia, had Public Health system that were better prepared than in the UK and other Western countries. Unless I've totally misunderstood him.

I had wondered whether poorer nations, with lower hygiene and medical resources, were accidentally 'proof testing' their population. People that survived conditions in poorer countries being those that are either stronger and, or, have built up greater immunity/resistance through exposure to more communicable diseases.

This study, from last year, follows that sort of hypothesis and finds some evidence to support it, particularly with respect to auto immune diseases. However, it doesn't really explain the high incidence of deaths in several South American Countries.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 696v2.full

[Paddington Bear]

Read a thing a while back and can't remember who wrote it so take with plenty of salt, but there was a suggestion that less dangerous coronaviruses may have spread through asia over the last few years, giving people a higher underlying level of immunity. May be total bollocks.