Re: The Official English Rugby Thread
Posted: Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:11 pm
Care is a much better fit playing with Smith at the moment
A Quins 8 - 9 - 10 combo makes sense imo
A Quins 8 - 9 - 10 combo makes sense imo
A place where escape goats go to play
https://notplanetrugby.com/
England vs Argentina? Quins v Glaws? Saracens v Exeter (think this was a draw)? There's been plenty of others, though I don't commit them all to memory as they're not that rare now. This is a commonly occurring discussion on here: notplanetrugby.com/viewtopic.php?p=81208Ovals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:05 pmExcept that most times the attacking side doesn't take the 3 pints on offer, preferring to go for the try, knowing they have an extra man and the defending side is at a big disadvantage.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:01 pmIt's plenty of times, yeah - because it's always mentioned on here when it happens and it's been happening often enough to become a meme. Of course you also jumped into an argument that was partly about England's total lack of attacking ability, which cannot be blamed purely on the red card even though R&C seems convinced that all and every attack is stymied by the lack of Ewels.Ovals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 4:58 pm
Countless
Lots of factors to consider - eg how many of them played the whole game with 14. Anyway, it stands to reason that losing a player for 80mins, against a team that were already favourites, is a huge disadvantage and, even if you then play well, you're almost certain to lose.
But you missed my edit as well, 3-5 points for a yellow card is meaningless given how often a yellow is immediately followed by a 3 point penalty. You can't just multiply that out. They don't get a free penalty every 10 minutes.
So, what other games have a side won after being down a man in the 1st couple of mins ?
Care isn't fit enough for international rugby and his form is pretty shaky this season, plus he's had several yellow cards in his past few games. It's a terrible idea.
I'm a Quins fan. Are you disagreeing with his awful discipline in the last month or two?
Forget I asked.
Qu’un sang impurHal Jordan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:19 pmForget I asked.
Thank god this is on last so I can get wrecked and fall into bed.
On the other hand, you might be able to mitigate being a player down for 10 mins - doing that for 80 is another matter entirely - I only gave the extrapolation as an indicator as to how hard it is for a side to cope with a man down. As was shown in the England game, the longer you are down a man, the tougher it gets - 10 mins you can cope with, 80 and you're pretty much cooked.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:14 pmEngland vs Argentina? Quins v Glaws? Saracens v Exeter (think this was a draw)? There's been plenty of others, though I don't commit them all to memory as they're not that rare now. This is a commonly occurring discussion on here: notplanetrugby.com/viewtopic.php?p=81208Ovals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:05 pmExcept that most times the attacking side doesn't take the 3 pints on offer, preferring to go for the try, knowing they have an extra man and the defending side is at a big disadvantage.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:01 pm
It's plenty of times, yeah - because it's always mentioned on here when it happens and it's been happening often enough to become a meme. Of course you also jumped into an argument that was partly about England's total lack of attacking ability, which cannot be blamed purely on the red card even though R&C seems convinced that all and every attack is stymied by the lack of Ewels.
But you missed my edit as well, 3-5 points for a yellow card is meaningless given how often a yellow is immediately followed by a 3 point penalty. You can't just multiply that out. They don't get a free penalty every 10 minutes.
So, what other games have a side won after being down a man in the 1st couple of mins ?
Also sorry, I edited again You're referencing something else I added: those situations where a yellow card happens because a team is having to infringe to avoid conceding a try, i.e. they are likely to concede a try anyway. It's not a case of "there's been a yellow, now we can score" as often as it is "let's keep the pressure on". Yellows for multiple infringements, yellows for cheating to stop a probably try being scored - all of those are examples of how points scored after yellow cards can often be a reflection of the match situation.
So: quite a lot of 3-pointers scored after yellow cards. Quite a lot of tries scored after yellow cards that were dished out because a team was already struggling to prevent the opposition from scoring. You can't just extrapolate that across all matches. Stats don't work that way.
It's definitely harder, no question. I just don't agree with the extrapolating the "average points conceded" stat because of how misleading it can be.Ovals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:25 pmOn the other hand, you might be able to mitigate being a player down for 10 mins - doing that for 80 is another matter entirely - I only gave the extrapolation as an indicator as to how hard it is for a side to cope with a man down. As was shown in the England game, the longer you are down a man, the tougher it gets - 10 mins you can cope with, 80 and you're pretty much cooked.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:14 pmEngland vs Argentina? Quins v Glaws? Saracens v Exeter (think this was a draw)? There's been plenty of others, though I don't commit them all to memory as they're not that rare now. This is a commonly occurring discussion on here: notplanetrugby.com/viewtopic.php?p=81208Ovals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:05 pm
Except that most times the attacking side doesn't take the 3 pints on offer, preferring to go for the try, knowing they have an extra man and the defending side is at a big disadvantage.
So, what other games have a side won after being down a man in the 1st couple of mins ?
Also sorry, I edited again You're referencing something else I added: those situations where a yellow card happens because a team is having to infringe to avoid conceding a try, i.e. they are likely to concede a try anyway. It's not a case of "there's been a yellow, now we can score" as often as it is "let's keep the pressure on". Yellows for multiple infringements, yellows for cheating to stop a probably try being scored - all of those are examples of how points scored after yellow cards can often be a reflection of the match situation.
So: quite a lot of 3-pointers scored after yellow cards. Quite a lot of tries scored after yellow cards that were dished out because a team was already struggling to prevent the opposition from scoring. You can't just extrapolate that across all matches. Stats don't work that way.
I do, however, agree about our attack - it's been toothless with 15 and it was toothless with 14. But having one less player certainly wouldn't have helped.
Good examples but still a minority by a huge distance - it may not be a death sentence but it ain't far off - especially when the side with 15 is the better side to start with. I'm confident that we'd have lost with 15, even with the dominance we had in the scrum - so playing with 14 just took out what slim chance we had.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:36 pmIt's definitely harder, no question. I just don't agree with the extrapolating the "average points conceded" stat because of how misleading it can be.Ovals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:25 pmOn the other hand, you might be able to mitigate being a player down for 10 mins - doing that for 80 is another matter entirely - I only gave the extrapolation as an indicator as to how hard it is for a side to cope with a man down. As was shown in the England game, the longer you are down a man, the tougher it gets - 10 mins you can cope with, 80 and you're pretty much cooked.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:14 pm
England vs Argentina? Quins v Glaws? Saracens v Exeter (think this was a draw)? There's been plenty of others, though I don't commit them all to memory as they're not that rare now. This is a commonly occurring discussion on here: notplanetrugby.com/viewtopic.php?p=81208
Also sorry, I edited again You're referencing something else I added: those situations where a yellow card happens because a team is having to infringe to avoid conceding a try, i.e. they are likely to concede a try anyway. It's not a case of "there's been a yellow, now we can score" as often as it is "let's keep the pressure on". Yellows for multiple infringements, yellows for cheating to stop a probably try being scored - all of those are examples of how points scored after yellow cards can often be a reflection of the match situation.
So: quite a lot of 3-pointers scored after yellow cards. Quite a lot of tries scored after yellow cards that were dished out because a team was already struggling to prevent the opposition from scoring. You can't just extrapolate that across all matches. Stats don't work that way.
I do, however, agree about our attack - it's been toothless with 15 and it was toothless with 14. But having one less player certainly wouldn't have helped.
Some other examples:
Toulouse beating Racing away from home in a European knockout game with an early red: https://www.rugbydump.com/news/toulouse ... -red-card/
Ireland with their only win on tour in South Africa despite losing CJ Stander to an early red: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/ ... tch-report
Australia beating France to seal the series in 2021 despite losing Koroibete after 5 minutes: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/ ... ver-france
Ireland smash Samoa at the world cup despite Aki's red card in the first half: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50027152
All Blacks beat Australia comfortably despite an early red for Jordie Barrett: https://www.rugby.com.au/news/wallabies ... ship202195
Munster smash Glasgow despite Earls being red carded early on: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/37730494
Obviously there are plenty of examples of red cards leading to losses. But it's not at all a death sentence. And no matter what the crazy man says, it does not excuse England's total lack of attack (I know you agree!). These matches are evidence of it. It's total nonsense to claim that losing a mediocrity like Ewels made our complete inability to create anything a foregone conclusion.
Ovals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:49 pmGood examples but still a minority by a huge distance - it may not be a death sentence but it ain't far off - especially when the side with 15 is the better side to start with. I'm confident that we'd have lost with 15, even with the dominance we had in the scrum - so playing with 14 just took out what slim chance we had.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:36 pmIt's definitely harder, no question. I just don't agree with the extrapolating the "average points conceded" stat because of how misleading it can be.Ovals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:25 pm
On the other hand, you might be able to mitigate being a player down for 10 mins - doing that for 80 is another matter entirely - I only gave the extrapolation as an indicator as to how hard it is for a side to cope with a man down. As was shown in the England game, the longer you are down a man, the tougher it gets - 10 mins you can cope with, 80 and you're pretty much cooked.
I do, however, agree about our attack - it's been toothless with 15 and it was toothless with 14. But having one less player certainly wouldn't have helped.
Some other examples:
Toulouse beating Racing away from home in a European knockout game with an early red: https://www.rugbydump.com/news/toulouse ... -red-card/
Ireland with their only win on tour in South Africa despite losing CJ Stander to an early red: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/ ... tch-report
Australia beating France to seal the series in 2021 despite losing Koroibete after 5 minutes: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/ ... ver-france
Ireland smash Samoa at the world cup despite Aki's red card in the first half: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50027152
All Blacks beat Australia comfortably despite an early red for Jordie Barrett: https://www.rugby.com.au/news/wallabies ... ship202195
Munster smash Glasgow despite Earls being red carded early on: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/37730494
Obviously there are plenty of examples of red cards leading to losses. But it's not at all a death sentence. And no matter what the crazy man says, it does not excuse England's total lack of attack (I know you agree!). These matches are evidence of it. It's total nonsense to claim that losing a mediocrity like Ewels made our complete inability to create anything a foregone conclusion.
Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree - for me a red card, that early, radically alters the odds against you and, in that game, it was pretty well curtains in the 2nd minute and it ended up being a record defeat despite us playing above ourselves.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 6:27 pmOvals wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:49 pmGood examples but still a minority by a huge distance - it may not be a death sentence but it ain't far off - especially when the side with 15 is the better side to start with. I'm confident that we'd have lost with 15, even with the dominance we had in the scrum - so playing with 14 just took out what slim chance we had.JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:36 pm
It's definitely harder, no question. I just don't agree with the extrapolating the "average points conceded" stat because of how misleading it can be.
Some other examples:
Toulouse beating Racing away from home in a European knockout game with an early red: https://www.rugbydump.com/news/toulouse ... -red-card/
Ireland with their only win on tour in South Africa despite losing CJ Stander to an early red: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/ ... tch-report
Australia beating France to seal the series in 2021 despite losing Koroibete after 5 minutes: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/ ... ver-france
Ireland smash Samoa at the world cup despite Aki's red card in the first half: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50027152
All Blacks beat Australia comfortably despite an early red for Jordie Barrett: https://www.rugby.com.au/news/wallabies ... ship202195
Munster smash Glasgow despite Earls being red carded early on: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/37730494
Obviously there are plenty of examples of red cards leading to losses. But it's not at all a death sentence. And no matter what the crazy man says, it does not excuse England's total lack of attack (I know you agree!). These matches are evidence of it. It's total nonsense to claim that losing a mediocrity like Ewels made our complete inability to create anything a foregone conclusion.
It's not an exhaustive list, and it's not a huge minority - early red cards aren't all that common full stop. It also doesn't need to be exhaustive in order to disprove the idea that red cards ruin the contest.
We agree that we were likely to lose that match anyway. But then most people thought that about Australia and they still won with a red card.
(there's plenty more)It was crisp, clear and grounded in simple principles. You wonder what that Eddie Jones would make of this Eddie Jones and what would he say about England now if he still had that column in the Mail.
Would he ask why the captaincy is being passed around between Tom Curry, Courtney Lawes and Farrell when the man who sets the standards, Maro Itoje, is frozen out because he may or may not be too “inward-looking” to do it (it depends if you go on Jones’s last book or what he said about it afterwards)? Would he ask why if England’s forwards played so well against Ireland when Itoje and Lawes were packing down together at lock England don’t play them there every week?
perhaps more telling was his suggestion that England could struggle to field their absolute first-choice XV until next year’s Rugby World Cup.
The Premiership clubs would argue the attrition rate on international duty is an equally major factor but Jones, now lacking a clutch of Lions including Curry, Owen Farrell, Manu Tuilagi, Anthony Watson, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Jonny Hill, believes that English injury disruption is becoming harder to avoid than ever. “Now, more so than at any time, the length of the season in England is daunting,” Jones says. “We’ve got to be more accepting that this is going to be part of the normal going forward. Your ability to get your best team on the field is probably only going to be seen at the World Cup when you get three months to prepare the players properly. Otherwise you’ve just got to make do with what you have available.”
Given France, even with the occasional Covid issues, have used just 26 players in the entire championship and have an even longer domestic season, there is a certain irony to the timing of Jones’s complaint. Cohesion, too, is not entirely down to good luck with injuries. Those English supporters exasperated by England’s endless comings and goings will be wondering if England’s management are subtly – or not too subtly – trying to get their excuses in early.
Cheers, will do. Need to listen to the one with Cipriani running the rule over England's attack tooKawazaki wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 9:42 am JM, you should listen to the latest BBC Rugby podcast entitled 'The one about France'. Don't worry, there no Ugo in it. It's an intelligent insight into the changes made in France particularly by the 30 - yes 30 - fully professional clubs in France toward working in the best interests of French rugby. Features the Brive chairman for the last 17 years who is English and John Beattie gives a players perspective of what is like our there. Basically, it's no fluke that France are now a very good team, Shaun Edwards of course had a lot to do with it but Fabian Galthie is the real catalyst apparently. He's not just a fancy pair of spectacles.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3OvcA0 ... =copy-link
Attack coach has definitely had the most churn under Eddie and I don't think it's a coincidence that it's the most dysfunctional part of our game.Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 10:08 am
The podcast on France was a good listen as well whilst walking down the canal - got me wondering where we'd be with a settled and top level assistant coach group. Cockerill seems to be doing a decent job with the forwards, the rest?
Always have to take these things with a pinch of salt, likewise the videos coming from RFU channels, but it's hard to look at this and the efforts being put in, and see this as a squad who hate their time with England and can't stand/are afraid of their coaches.“I feel like, as a group, probably this campaign more than any other we’ve come together as a squad,” he added. “Although that maybe hasn’t been reflected in the results against Scotland and Ireland, I feel like people could see at Twickenham what it meant for us to play for England. Also we’re not just playing for England, we’re playing for the coaches. That’s big to see that, and how much confidence we have in what Eddie does and in how we play the game at the weekend.”
I think you're absolutely correct. Eddie has always liked seeing his side hoofing the ball. After our excellent rearguard action last weekend he probably thinks that's the template for how we should play this weekend - hence the rather 'hotchpot' team he's selected this week. It's a very limited gameplan and won't be pretty to watch. We're also very unlikely to achieve the same success we managed at the scrums.
It's a case of if you have to tell people you're playing for the coaches...Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 10:27 am From an interview with Sam Simmonds:
Always have to take these things with a pinch of salt, likewise the videos coming from RFU channels, but it's hard to look at this and the efforts being put in, and see this as a squad who hate their time with England and can't stand/are afraid of their coaches.“I feel like, as a group, probably this campaign more than any other we’ve come together as a squad,” he added. “Although that maybe hasn’t been reflected in the results against Scotland and Ireland, I feel like people could see at Twickenham what it meant for us to play for England. Also we’re not just playing for England, we’re playing for the coaches. That’s big to see that, and how much confidence we have in what Eddie does and in how we play the game at the weekend.”
It was in answer to a specific question about EddieJM2K6 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:33 amIt's a case of if you have to tell people you're playing for the coaches...Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 10:27 am From an interview with Sam Simmonds:
Always have to take these things with a pinch of salt, likewise the videos coming from RFU channels, but it's hard to look at this and the efforts being put in, and see this as a squad who hate their time with England and can't stand/are afraid of their coaches.“I feel like, as a group, probably this campaign more than any other we’ve come together as a squad,” he added. “Although that maybe hasn’t been reflected in the results against Scotland and Ireland, I feel like people could see at Twickenham what it meant for us to play for England. Also we’re not just playing for England, we’re playing for the coaches. That’s big to see that, and how much confidence we have in what Eddie does and in how we play the game at the weekend.”
Look what players say when selection is no longer anything they have to worry about. Like Dylan Hartley.
It's not exactly the attack that nobody else has line of thinking being espoused but a few weeks ago. Hard too to see what it does to develop the pairing of Randall and SmithOvals wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 10:38 amI think you're absolutely correct. Eddie has always liked seeing his side hoofing the ball. After our excellent rearguard action last weekend he probably thinks that's the template for how we should play this weekend - hence the rather 'hotchpot' team he's selected this week. It's a very limited gameplan and won't be pretty to watch. We're also very unlikely to achieve the same success we managed at the scrums.
Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 2:05 pm U20s for the France game on Sunday. Arundell back in. Stephens makes shows up on the bench (guessing he's been injured up to now?). Probably the strongest line up they've turned out so far, so hopefully managed to end on a positive note.
England U20 v France U20
15. Henry Arundell (London Irish, Caps 2)
14. Deago Bailey (Bristol Bears, Caps 7)
13. Will Joseph (London Irish, Caps 1)
12. Ethan Grayson (Northampton Saints, Caps 4)
11. Cassius Cleaves (Harlequins, Caps 2)
10. Louie Johnson (Newcastle Falcons, 3 Caps)
9. Nye Thomas (Sale Sharks, Caps 1)
1. Fin Baxter (Harlequins, Caps 6)
2. John Stewart (Bath Rugby, Caps 4)
3. Tim Hoyt (Leicester Tigers, Caps 1)
4. Lewis Chessum (Leicester Tigers, Caps 2)
5. Chandler Cunningham-South (London Irish, Caps 2)
6. Ewan Richards (Bath Rugby, Caps 6)
7. Toby Knight (Saracens, Caps 3)
8. Emeka Ilione (Leicester Tigers, Caps 5) - Captain
Replacements
16. Ollie Fletcher (Newcastle Falcons, Caps 0)
17. Archie McArthur (Wasps, Caps 1)
18. Mikey Summerfield (London Irish, Caps 4)
19. Tom Lockett (Northampton Saints, Caps 2)
20. Lucas Brooke (London Irish, Caps 3)
21. Matty Jones (Gloucester Rugby, Caps 3)
22. Iwan Stephens (Newcastle Falcons, Caps 0)
23. Tom Litchfield (Northampton Saints, Caps 4)
It's pretty much an admission that they've completely failed and just aren't going to bother with it any longer. TBH you don't need a highly paid head coach to implement the limited gameplan that appears to be latest Eddie's latest brain brainwave. Yet again we've made no real progress during the 6N.Rhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:58 amIt's not exactly the attack that nobody else has line of thinking being espoused but a few weeks ago. Hard too to see what it does to develop the pairing of Randall and SmithOvals wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 10:38 amI think you're absolutely correct. Eddie has always liked seeing his side hoofing the ball. After our excellent rearguard action last weekend he probably thinks that's the template for how we should play this weekend - hence the rather 'hotchpot' team he's selected this week. It's a very limited gameplan and won't be pretty to watch. We're also very unlikely to achieve the same success we managed at the scrums.
It's almost less we make little progress and instead we keep resetting and starting anew. The attack we had last 6N was interesting if difficult to see how it could be sustained, the autumn was not good, but since then we started this 6N in very similar style to France as regards the attack. But whereas France have developed their attack over several years we've again changed or perhaps again given up. For sure Eddie runs some very nice strike moves, and in a lot of games our pack, the kick chase and running strike moves off penalties will work, but if you don't get the penalties and the other side take your kicks then not only is it a rotten watch it's near doomed to failure.Ovals wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 3:16 pmIt's pretty much an admission that they've completely failed and just aren't going to bother with it any longer. TBH you don't need a highly paid head coach to implement the limited gameplan that appears to be latest Eddie's latest brain brainwave. Yet again we've made no real progress during the 6N.Rhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:58 amIt's not exactly the attack that nobody else has line of thinking being espoused but a few weeks ago. Hard too to see what it does to develop the pairing of Randall and SmithOvals wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 10:38 am
I think you're absolutely correct. Eddie has always liked seeing his side hoofing the ball. After our excellent rearguard action last weekend he probably thinks that's the template for how we should play this weekend - hence the rather 'hotchpot' team he's selected this week. It's a very limited gameplan and won't be pretty to watch. We're also very unlikely to achieve the same success we managed at the scrums.
The u20s game in general is faster. U20s international referee fitness test is higher than any other level.