NPR

Biffer wrote: Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:47 am Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

tabascoboy wrote: Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:25 pm


Thread unroll at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1547 ... 18336.html

fishfoodie wrote: Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:52 pm

Biffer wrote: Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:47 am Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

Grandpa wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:48 am

fishfoodie wrote: Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:52 pm

Biffer wrote: Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:47 am Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

fishfoodie wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:57 am

Grandpa wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:48 am

fishfoodie wrote: Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:52 pm

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

Grandpa wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:19 am

fishfoodie wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:57 am

Grandpa wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:48 am

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

Hellraiser wrote: Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:36 pm

fishfoodie wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:56 am

Grandpa wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:19 am

fishfoodie wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:57 am

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

Defensive mode is what they're trying, & failing to do. The WW I trenches & fortifications don't work when your opposition can reach out from 40+ miles away, & pick off your artillery, command posts, & supply lines with precision strikes. So you try to, sanitize that area with your own artillery, but when you've a massive front line like the Russians have made for themselves, that needs thousands of artillery pieces, & millions, & millions of shells, all delivered by trucks, & logistics that need tens of thousands of trained personnel.

The obvious thing for the Russians to do is cut the length of their front (which we've already seen in the North), but that's politically unacceptable, so they're just going to bleed, & bleed, until the moral of their troops is gone, or their logistics fail, & the Ukrainians retake large parts of the occupied territory.

Grandpa wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:46 pm

fishfoodie wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:56 am

Grandpa wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:19 am

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

Defensive mode is what they're trying, & failing to do. The WW I trenches & fortifications don't work when your opposition can reach out from 40+ miles away, & pick off your artillery, command posts, & supply lines with precision strikes. So you try to, sanitize that area with your own artillery, but when you've a massive front line like the Russians have made for themselves, that needs thousands of artillery pieces, & millions, & millions of shells, all delivered by trucks, & logistics that need tens of thousands of trained personnel.

The obvious thing for the Russians to do is cut the length of their front (which we've already seen in the North), but that's politically unacceptable, so they're just going to bleed, & bleed, until the moral of their troops is gone, or their logistics fail, & the Ukrainians retake large parts of the occupied territory.

I hope you are right. I just find it amazing that someone with that much knowledge and experience, would be so out of touch with what is actually happening. Thankfully he's an ex..

yermum wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:06 pm they would be playing a dangerous game with Turkey if they fuck about too much.

Complete denial of passage from the black sea would be problematic for Russia

But being Russian I guess doing something completely stupid is a distinct possibility.

Hellraiser wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:35 pm

Uncle fester wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:33 pm

yermum wrote: Fri Jul 22, 2022 3:06 pm they would be playing a dangerous game with Turkey if they fuck about too much.

Complete denial of passage from the black sea would be problematic for Russia

But being Russian I guess doing something completely stupid is a distinct possibility.

If their behaviour to date is any guide, they are probably waiting for the ships to leave laden with produce and then sink them.

tabascoboy wrote: Sat Jul 23, 2022 12:11 pm You just know that the Russian will claim Ukraine used the cover of the agreement to use the port area for military storage and so it was a "legitimate target", though not until after they deny the attack happened of course and then it happened but it was UA that launched the missiles themselves...

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:38 pm 25% cut in the value of the Ukranian currency yesterday and expected further devaluation shortly. They've been downgraded in credit rating. The economic situation of Ukraine is not good.

They've got sovereign debt relief and private funding is expected to follow but Ukraine is in trouble. They certainly want their ag exports flowing.

Plim wrote: Sat Jul 23, 2022 10:38 pm

Flockwitt wrote: Sat Jul 23, 2022 9:38 pm 25% cut in the value of the Ukranian currency yesterday and expected further devaluation shortly. They've been downgraded in credit rating. The economic situation of Ukraine is not good.

They've got sovereign debt relief and private funding is expected to follow but Ukraine is in trouble. They certainly want their ag exports flowing.

And the rouble’s at an 8 year high.

tabascoboy wrote: Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:40 pm And thus begins the denial phase...



Wonder if someone, somewhere at an airbase or on a warship "didn't get the memo"

Hellraiser wrote: Sun Jul 24, 2022 2:42 pm