What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

[PornDog]

Thread unroll at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1547 ... 18336.html

Was this a discussion between LBJ and McNamara?

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

Hide in the forest, still get found and wrecked

[Grandpa]

Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

[fishfoodie]

Maybe they're going to be staying like they stayed in Afghanistan.

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

[Grandpa]

I really don't see how the Russians can stay, & maintain an armed force that any potential opponent considers a threat ?

It was a long fucking walk from Afghanistan to home for the Russians; but it's much easier for one of the contract cannon fodder mugs to just say, fuck it, I can't spend the money if I'm dead; & pack their bags & desert !

The only two forces in theater the commanders can rely on, are the local DPR, etc, who are on a par with their equivalents on the Ukraine side, in that they're only part-timers, & motivated mostly by protecting their homes (but much worse equipped), & the merc's who'll fight while the economics make sense, but how many mercs can the Russians afford ?

There's no rabbit the Orcs can pull out of the hat, that will change the balance; & the longer this goes on, the stronger the Ukrainians will get, & the weaker the Orcs get.

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

[fishfoodie]

They have stayed in parts of Donbas and Crimea since 2014... so not sure why they can't hang around?

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

Defensive mode is what they're trying, & failing to do. The WW I trenches & fortifications don't work when your opposition can reach out from 40+ miles away, & pick off your artillery, command posts, & supply lines with precision strikes. So you try to, sanitize that area with your own artillery, but when you've a massive front line like the Russians have made for themselves, that needs thousands of artillery pieces, & millions, & millions of shells, all delivered by trucks, & logistics that need tens of thousands of trained personnel.

The obvious thing for the Russians to do is cut the length of their front (which we've already seen in the North), but that's politically unacceptable, so they're just going to bleed, & bleed, until the moral of their troops is gone, or their logistics fail, & the Ukrainians retake large parts of the occupied territory.

[TheFrog]

Not sure this is much shelter against shelling...

But hats off to the guys, they are brave and contribute to the war effort by going out in the fields and delivering grain for the country.

[tabascoboy]

Not sure where I found the picture now, but the Russians successfully demilitarised and denazified a UA combine harvester recently. Add to that the risk of unexploded ordinance and land mines and you have to be more than a little brave to be out in the fields

[Uncle fester]

Deal signed to get Ukrainian wheat moving.

Will the Russians stick to it?

[yermum]

they would be playing a dangerous game with Turkey if they fuck about too much.

Complete denial of passage from the black sea would be problematic for Russia

But being Russian I guess doing something completely stupid is a distinct possibility.

[Grandpa]

There's no comparison between the intensity of warfare after 2014, and now !

Now the Russians are having to commit their mainline forces, & are losing some of their best equipment, stuff that's irreplaceable will the sanctions now in place, & all while their Domestic economy is slowly dying, along with hundreds of soldiers, every week.

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

Defensive mode is what they're trying, & failing to do. The WW I trenches & fortifications don't work when your opposition can reach out from 40+ miles away, & pick off your artillery, command posts, & supply lines with precision strikes. So you try to, sanitize that area with your own artillery, but when you've a massive front line like the Russians have made for themselves, that needs thousands of artillery pieces, & millions, & millions of shells, all delivered by trucks, & logistics that need tens of thousands of trained personnel.

The obvious thing for the Russians to do is cut the length of their front (which we've already seen in the North), but that's politically unacceptable, so they're just going to bleed, & bleed, until the moral of their troops is gone, or their logistics fail, & the Ukrainians retake large parts of the occupied territory.

I hope you are right. I just find it amazing that someone with that much knowledge and experience, would be so out of touch with what is actually happening. Thankfully he's an ex..

[fishfoodie]

Wouldn't they just go into defensive mode? It's the offensive mode which is the most draining of resources? That Chief of Defence Staff guy is surely aware of what would be involved? Or maybe not...

Defensive mode is what they're trying, & failing to do. The WW I trenches & fortifications don't work when your opposition can reach out from 40+ miles away, & pick off your artillery, command posts, & supply lines with precision strikes. So you try to, sanitize that area with your own artillery, but when you've a massive front line like the Russians have made for themselves, that needs thousands of artillery pieces, & millions, & millions of shells, all delivered by trucks, & logistics that need tens of thousands of trained personnel.

The obvious thing for the Russians to do is cut the length of their front (which we've already seen in the North), but that's politically unacceptable, so they're just going to bleed, & bleed, until the moral of their troops is gone, or their logistics fail, & the Ukrainians retake large parts of the occupied territory.

I hope you are right. I just find it amazing that someone with that much knowledge and experience, would be so out of touch with what is actually happening. Thankfully he's an ex..

Like many of his generation be believed in, & expected the 8ft Bear, & still hasn't come to terms with the hamster that has arrived instead.

[yermum]

Also a big scary Bear means a potential return to the good old days of the Cold war when the HMAF were much much bigger.

Don't need to increase the size of the Armed forces for hamster fighting.

In the early days of the Ukraine war Lord Dannett was calling for Nato to get involved with a no fly zone he is very much a hawk.

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

they would be playing a dangerous game with Turkey if they fuck about too much.

Complete denial of passage from the black sea would be problematic for Russia

But being Russian I guess doing something completely stupid is a distinct possibility.

If their behaviour to date is any guide, they are probably waiting for the ships to leave laden with produce and then sink them.

[Flockwitt]

Command pots eh? What's next, logistics pans?

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Uncle fester]

they would be playing a dangerous game with Turkey if they fuck about too much.

Complete denial of passage from the black sea would be problematic for Russia

But being Russian I guess doing something completely stupid is a distinct possibility.

If their behaviour to date is any guide, they are probably waiting for the ships to leave laden with produce and then sink them.

Told ya.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... dApp_Other

[tabascoboy]

You just know that the Russian will claim Ukraine used the cover of the agreement to use the port area for military storage and so it was a "legitimate target", though not until after they deny the attack happened of course and then it happened but it was UA that launched the missiles themselves...

[petej]

You just know that the Russian will claim Ukraine used the cover of the agreement to use the port area for military storage and so it was a "legitimate target", though not until after they deny the attack happened of course and then it happened but it was UA that launched the missiles themselves...

Traditional disinformation nonsense. Hopefully, various Russian officials and western quislings get hammered with dog memes.

[tabascoboy]

And thus begins the denial phase...



Wonder if someone, somewhere at an airbase or on a warship "didn't get the memo"

[Flockwitt]

Somebody didn't get the memo

[Flockwitt]

Yum.

Check out Denys' latest and the bridge they took out at Darivka.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdKu2FrQzLw

[Flockwitt]

25% cut in the value of the Ukranian currency yesterday and expected further devaluation shortly. They've been downgraded in credit rating. The economic situation of Ukraine is not good.

They've got sovereign debt relief and private funding is expected to follow but Ukraine is in trouble. They certainly want their ag exports flowing.

[Plim]

25% cut in the value of the Ukranian currency yesterday and expected further devaluation shortly. They've been downgraded in credit rating. The economic situation of Ukraine is not good.

They've got sovereign debt relief and private funding is expected to follow but Ukraine is in trouble. They certainly want their ag exports flowing.

And the rouble’s at an 8 year high.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

25% cut in the value of the Ukranian currency yesterday and expected further devaluation shortly. They've been downgraded in credit rating. The economic situation of Ukraine is not good.

They've got sovereign debt relief and private funding is expected to follow but Ukraine is in trouble. They certainly want their ag exports flowing.

And the rouble’s at an 8 year high.

Which is completely meaningless as it only has that nominal value due to unsustainable levels of government intervention and it can't be spent outside Russia.

[AD345]

[tabascoboy]

And thus begins the denial phase...



Wonder if someone, somewhere at an airbase or on a warship "didn't get the memo"

And as usual onto stage 2 after the denial...

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova: “Russian forces had hit a Ukrainian military boat in the port of Odesa in Ukraine with high-precision missiles.”

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Hal Jordan]

That's a lot of senior officers.

[Hellraiser]