NPR

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:31 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:28 am
It has!

Problem is access to testing is now more difficult - many folk have to pay for a LFT in England now, most free testing sites have now closed, and many aren't buying LFTs or if they are aren't sending in their LFT tests online. Also messaging from Govs is essentially covid is over or it is nothing more than a mild flu so don't worry. Despite ONS study suggesting 1 in 12 in Scotland had covid the number of tests carried out last week dropped by 20%, in England the number of tests reported has dropped by almost 50% in recent weeks despite ONS study showing number of cases has gone up. The case info is interesting but isn't useful for monitoring trends or comparisons now - the data is too muddled and comparing like for like.

I'll tell you what. Let's wait a week or two until the ONS data for this week.

Will be happy to admit to being wrong if the figures then continue to show the same upward trend for this week.

Calculon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:20 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 11:28 am

You can buy FFP2 or FFP3 masks on Amazon - there are lots of shapes and designs - have a look. They are more comfortable to wear than surgical masks and fit better around the nose and moth. They are more expensive that surgical masks. Both give over 90% filtration rates - FFP3 highest. They are very common in number of industries ie building trade and are recommended by HSE in UK for lots of jobs which generate dust/particles, etc. If I was in a job in an enclosed area and/or with lots of people contact I would recommend using these. Research shows far lower levels of transmission when these are used.

The clever thing about these masks is that the filter materials are electrostatically charged so they attract particles/viruses and prevent them feeding through to be inhaled.

thanks, interesting about the charge but no amazon where I live so will have to take my chances

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:59 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:31 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:28 am
It has!

Problem is access to testing is now more difficult - many folk have to pay for a LFT in England now, most free testing sites have now closed, and many aren't buying LFTs or if they are aren't sending in their LFT tests online. Also messaging from Govs is essentially covid is over or it is nothing more than a mild flu so don't worry. Despite ONS study suggesting 1 in 12 in Scotland had covid the number of tests carried out last week dropped by 20%, in England the number of tests reported has dropped by almost 50% in recent weeks despite ONS study showing number of cases has gone up. The case info is interesting but isn't useful for monitoring trends or comparisons now - the data is too muddled and comparing like for like.

I'll tell you what. Let's wait a week or two until the ONS data for this week.

Will be happy to admit to being wrong if the figures then continue to show the same upward trend for this week.

Inevitable there will be a downturn in infection numbers in the ONS data, that is what happens, that is the very nature of being in the midst of a pandemic - peaks and troughs of infection. Wait a week or two and of course numbers will begin to dip ... until the next wave.

Case numbers reported previously using PCR and LFT tests is now a redundant figure due to lack of testing access which was my point.

Ymx wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:44 pm Indeed. Case numbers are pretty much meaningless over this period.

With covid v For covid is significant enough to distort covid hospital admissions - unless there is an excess hospitalisations metric somewhere??

And the other key metrics being ICU admissions and excess deaths. Though as it happens there is plenty of natural variance in excess deaths. And in fact excess death rates is going to be distorted for the next few years over the previous covid peaks of eg March/Apr 2020.

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:08 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:59 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:31 am

I'll tell you what. Let's wait a week or two until the ONS data for this week.

Will be happy to admit to being wrong if the figures then continue to show the same upward trend for this week.

Inevitable there will be a downturn in infection numbers in the ONS data, that is what happens, that is the very nature of being in the midst of a pandemic - peaks and troughs of infection. Wait a week or two and of course numbers will begin to dip ... until the next wave.

Case numbers reported previously using PCR and LFT tests is now a redundant figure due to lack of testing access which was my point.

Where have I said there won't be another wave? I just questioned your assertion that infections were still increasing a few days ago

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:32 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:08 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:59 am

Inevitable there will be a downturn in infection numbers in the ONS data, that is what happens, that is the very nature of being in the midst of a pandemic - peaks and troughs of infection. Wait a week or two and of course numbers will begin to dip ... until the next wave.

Case numbers reported previously using PCR and LFT tests is now a redundant figure due to lack of testing access which was my point.

Where have I said there won't be another wave? I just questioned your assertion that infections were still increasing a few days ago

I didn't say you had!

My assertion that case numbers were increasing was based on the latest ONS data which showed a trend that I outlined earlier. they said in their most recent publication which I suggested is more reliable than looking at case numbers published from PCR and LFT testing data.

However the trends for England and Wales and NI I refer to are correct - all have been steadily increasing. I am not sure why you think the trend should be reversing this week?

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:02 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:32 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:08 am

Where have I said there won't be another wave? I just questioned your assertion that infections were still increasing a few days ago

I didn't say you had!

My assertion that case numbers were increasing was based on the latest ONS data which showed a trend that I outlined earlier. they said in their most recent publication which I suggested is more reliable than looking at case numbers published from PCR and LFT testing data.

I'm not challenging the ONS data. It's a great resource. All I suggested was that cases were unlikely to be rising still this week (not week ending 26 March). You then said

However the trends for England and Wales and NI I refer to are correct - all have been steadily increasing. I am not sure why you think the trend should be reversing this week?

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:19 am Because the daily case numbers were falling (prior to 1st April). But let's not go around that loop again.

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:23 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:19 am Because the daily case numbers were falling (prior to 1st April). But let's not go around that loop again.

No - I think others have suggested why case numbers are not a reliable measure to use.

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:26 am

Ymx wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:44 pm Indeed. Case numbers are pretty much meaningless over this period.

With covid v For covid is significant enough to distort covid hospital admissions - unless there is an excess hospitalisations metric somewhere??

And the other key metrics being ICU admissions and excess deaths. Though as it happens there is plenty of natural variance in excess deaths. And in fact excess death rates is going to be distorted for the next few years over the previous covid peaks of eg March/Apr 2020.

Hospitalisation numbers are pretty much fixed as most hospitals are running at c98% bed occupancy so they can't really go any higher so there isn't really a metric for this! If there are no beds then hospitalisation rates can't increase unless discharges really go up and this won't happen as the care home/social care sector is under even greater pressure. Better measures are length of A&E waits, waiting times/lists for non emergency operations, cancellations of ops at short notice, diagnosis/treatment of cancer patients within the target timescales, etc. These are where the 'excess activity' shows up when beds are full.

If hospitals are filling with covid patients then the actual number of available beds goes down as you need to split hospital and patients into positive and negative areas, emergency admissions need to be isolated until tested, etc. Also when covid is high then staff absence is high and if you have no nurses then you have to close beds/wards as you cannot safely provide a service. Also staff often need to be split into separate teams for each area thus reducing flexibility for the staff who are at work. Also the infection control requirements - masking, gowning, etc - all takes time and requires more staff in covid positive areas.

Also advances in covid treatment has meant that many fewer patients are intubated and those that are are only intubated if absolutely necessary. In fact intubation caused more problems than it solved for many patients. Most covid patients are now maintained in wards due to improved medicines and oxygen therapies so comparing covid ICU numbers with those earlier in the pandemic provides a false picture.

Deaths due to covid are greatly reduced due to vaccines and better hospital treatments based on medics now knowing how best to treat covid and better therapeutics. If deaths start climbing even close to where we were before then start panicking because this will indicate either a greatly reduced vaccine protection and/or big increase in covid transmissibility, as we have seen with omicron BA2. Excess deaths will naturally flatten out over time given the high number of deaths in last two years (c160,000),many of whom were the most vulnerable, plus as you say there is natural variation in trends - for example we have seen excess deaths reduce dramatically and dip below 5 year average about this time of year for the last 2-3 years during the pandemic probably because although covid deaths have been there other deaths usually happening due to transmissible respiratory viruses ie flu, have fallen dramatically due to lock downs and other PH protections ie wearing masks, we have taken when covid waves have been high.

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:10 am Interesting piece of research which demonstrates covid is more than the flu ...

As someone who had a sub massive saddle PE in May 2020 after having suspected covid in Feb/March that year I am glad to see the evidence emerging to support what many of us suspected. Blue lighted into A&E due to lack of breath and nearly collapsing, luckily consultant recognised I didn't have covid early in seeing me, this was in peak of 1st wave, but already knew covid was responsible for doubling or more of blood clotting issues they were seeing in A&E so jabbed me with big dose of blood thinner asap, said it was better safe and sorry, and sent me for MRI which showed clot on lungs. I had no other medical indicator or reason why I should have had a PE, can't prove definitively it was covid but consultants view was this was by far the most likely cause. I spent 4 days in hospital desperately trying not to catch covid and released once O sats got back to over 94%. Had to inject myself for a couple of months with blood thiner before blood was ok to go onto tablets. I was lucky to make full recovery but on thinners for life.

FFS wear a mask!



Also this is looking a bit worrying? Could just be a coincidence ....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61013731

challenger scat pack 0 60

Ymx wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:22 am These wouldn’t be deaths as covid listed on the certificate I’m taking it. Not sure it’s really worth even looking/quoting at the discredited 28 day stat any more.

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:37 pm That 5-11 appears sensible enough. Vaccinate if have health problems don't bother your arse if don't. I have been vindicated once again.

dpedin wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:34 pm

Ymx wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:22 am These wouldn’t be deaths as covid listed on the certificate I’m taking it. Not sure it’s really worth even looking/quoting at the discredited 28 day stat any more.

Like them or not the trend is a worry - 120% increase is hard to ignore.

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:37 pm That 5-11 appears sensible enough. Vaccinate if have health problems don't bother your arse if don't. I have been vindicated once again.

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:02 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:10 pm

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:37 pm That 5-11 appears sensible enough. Vaccinate if have health problems don't bother your arse if don't. I have been vindicated once again.

The longer term impact of covid is still unknown in both adults and children and best not to take any risks, just vaccinate kids with what we know is a very safe and effective vaccine like we do for measles, polio, mumps rubella, etc. No brainer.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2022 ... long-covid

What is it with you and post viral illnesses. You do know they are not new. People talk about long covid like it is a unique set of new viral rules and we should all shit ourselves. How about telling everyone you will be grand after about 3-4 weeks max but the odd outlier. I'll see how it pans out. See if any kids arses fall off first

Grandpa wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 8:03 am

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:02 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 6:10 pm

The longer term impact of covid is still unknown in both adults and children and best not to take any risks, just vaccinate kids with what we know is a very safe and effective vaccine like we do for measles, polio, mumps rubella, etc. No brainer.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2022 ... long-covid

What is it with you and post viral illnesses. You do know they are not new. People talk about long covid like it is a unique set of new viral rules and we should all shit ourselves. How about telling everyone you will be grand after about 3-4 weeks max but the odd outlier. I'll see how it pans out. See if any kids arses fall off first

One man's odd outlier is another person's 643,000?

https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/09/16/how- ... easure-it/

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:39 am He's not being a hysterical fanny therefore he has to be joking, right?

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:45 am

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:39 am He's not being a hysterical fanny therefore he has to be joking, right?

You know a huge proportion of his posts are a pisstake, yeah?

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:02 am I absolutely am not taking the piss about covid. Its a mess. Anyway I don't know what I am doing even discussing it. It's in the rear view mirror though I do get reminded the odd time like I am going to the states soon. I need the following because of all the super covid weirdos

A. Recovery cert
B. Doctors cert
C. Attestation
D. CDC Locator form

What a palaver

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:26 am Who's irritated with everready?

Rinkals wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:42 am

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:26 am Who's irritated with everready?

I am, for one.

I find the piss taking inappropriate for this thread.

I appreciate that others enjoy his banter, but the promotion of doubt about dangers of covid and the ability of measures to combat it risks encouraging a resistance to these measures.

For the time being, I am quite prepared to listen to what scientists tell us about the virus, and I accept that we are still learning about it, so things may change.

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:58 am

Rinkals wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:42 am

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:26 am Who's irritated with everready?

I am, for one.

I find the piss taking inappropriate for this thread.

I appreciate that others enjoy his banter, but the promotion of doubt about dangers of covid and the ability of measures to combat it risks encouraging a resistance to these measures.

For the time being, I am quite prepared to listen to what scientists tell us about the virus, and I accept that we are still learning about it, so things may change.

It works both ways though. It's like there's a dogma in place now where people pretend it's still 2020/2021 when the threat level was fundamentally different.

Yes it's still a significant public health challenge and there needs to be continuous vigilance for more threatening variants. But there are continued panicked posts on threads like this where the huge reduction of risk just doesn't seem to be acknowledged. We've had sky high infection in the UK in the last month and in Jan and barely any impact at all on the number of patients in mechanical ventilation beds.

Grandpa wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:52 am Are Everready and EnergiseR2 the same?


Sounded similar to Bimbo off PR?