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Lobby
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New Leicester coach announced - Dan McKellar, the Aussies forwards coach and previously head coach at the ACT Brumbies

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/ ... head-coach

A fun snippet in the piece for Eddie-watchers/haters:

"With forwards coach McKellar and scrum coach Petrus du Plessis both resigning [from the Australian coaching team] on Wednesday, Jones, the former England coach, is now without any of the assistant coaching staff employed by his predecessor, Dave Rennie."

Not surprised no one wants to work under Eddie after his increasingly fractious regime in England.
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SaintK
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Lobby wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:41 am New Leicester coach announced - Dan McKellar, the Aussies forwards coach and previously head coach at the ACT Brumbies

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/ ... head-coach

A fun snippet in the piece for Eddie-watchers/haters:

"With forwards coach McKellar and scrum coach Petrus du Plessis both resigning [from the Australian coaching team] on Wednesday, Jones, the former England coach, is now without any of the assistant coaching staff employed by his predecessor, Dave Rennie."

Not surprised no one wants to work under Eddie after his increasingly fractious regime in England.
Jones is poison.
Mate of mine done consultancy work for ARU with McKellar reckons he's a top bloke. Hope he adapts to the Premiership quickly
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Paddington Bear
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I wonder how challenging it is for the England squad this week trying to get ready for a game that quite possibly won't happen? Yes they're professionals, drown it out etc but it has to play on the mind
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JM2K6
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Lobby wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:41 am New Leicester coach announced - Dan McKellar, the Aussies forwards coach and previously head coach at the ACT Brumbies

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/ ... head-coach

A fun snippet in the piece for Eddie-watchers/haters:

"With forwards coach McKellar and scrum coach Petrus du Plessis both resigning [from the Australian coaching team] on Wednesday, Jones, the former England coach, is now without any of the assistant coaching staff employed by his predecessor, Dave Rennie."

Not surprised no one wants to work under Eddie after his increasingly fractious regime in England.
Not to defend Eddie but this always happens - every new guy wants his own people and it's incredibly rare for existing coaches to stay in post for long.
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JM2K6
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The Earl thing IS weird. I can see some criticisms of him being valid - he doesn't seem very clever on the rugby pitch, he's often prone to brainfarts and being a bit loose, which can translate to a number of different things - but he's hugely skilled, high impact, and while you can point to individual errors he's made off the bench he's also done a lot of good stuff, far more than Ben Curry.

He's an ideal bench option for me. Can play 7 or 8, ups the tempo, can do something to turn the match, is a huge problem for the opposition to deal with when they've spent all game trying to deal with the different challenges presented by the starting backrow. Where does Ben Curry surpass him?
inactionman
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JM2K6 wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:15 pm The Earl thing IS weird. I can see some criticisms of him being valid - he doesn't seem very clever on the rugby pitch, he's often prone to brainfarts and being a bit loose, which can translate to a number of different things - but he's hugely skilled, high impact, and while you can point to individual errors he's made off the bench he's also done a lot of good stuff, far more than Ben Curry.

He's an ideal bench option for me. Can play 7 or 8, ups the tempo, can do something to turn the match, is a huge problem for the opposition to deal with when they've spent all game trying to deal with the different challenges presented by the starting backrow. Where does Ben Curry surpass him?
Shares lots of genes with Tom, would be my glib answer.

In seriousness, I'm not sure there's much to comfortably separate (given that I've not really seen enough of either in an England shirt to know) but Earl does seem in particularly fine fettle for Sarries.
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Of the two, Earl is who you'd want off the bench if we're down a few with 20 to play
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Earl might end up being one of those players who tears it up at club level but doesn't fit the Test team, either due to not being able to adapt to what the national team need from him in style, not having a face that fits (even the best coaches have these players before we go Poison Dwarf flinging) or just not translating club for to Test form.
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Kawazaki
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As I noted elsewhere, England are retreating to the mean when it comes to selection. It's a selection designed for average.

I feared Borthwick was not the right man for the job and said so before he was appointed. He's a low risk, low return coach just like he was as a player. He'll use statistics to confirm his 'logical' choices so regardless of performance, style or result he can post-rationalise and say to himself and his critics that he followed the logical path and the process led him to the team he selected. The trouble with using logic like that is that it kills magic. Result; the big, heavy slow lump who can catch is seen as more vital than the shorter, lighter player who has great footwork and lightening pace or Ben Curry gets picked instead of Ben Earl.
Ovals
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Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:53 pm As I noted elsewhere, England are retreating to the mean when it comes to selection. It's a selection designed for average.

I feared Borthwick was not the right man for the job and said so before he was appointed. He's a low risk, low return coach just like he was as a player. He'll use statistics to confirm his 'logical' choices so regardless of performance, style or result he can post-rationalise and say to himself and his critics that he followed the logical path and the process led him to the team he selected. The trouble with using logic like that is that it kills magic. Result; the big, heavy slow lump who can catch is seen as more vital than the shorter, lighter player who has great footwork and lightening pace or Ben Curry gets picked instead of Ben Earl.
I agree that Borthers isn't the 'Bazball' choice - but I'm willing to give him more time before condemning him. He has, at least, binned Youngs and brought in the likes of Chessum, OHC, Malins, Arundell etc.. It's step change up from Eddie. He's also working to a very tight timescale leading up to the WC - I'd like to see what he does with the side when the WC is over and he has a free rein to build a new team.
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Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:34 pm I agree that Borthers isn't the 'Bazball' choice - but I'm willing to give him more time before condemning him. He has, at least, binned Youngs and brought in the likes of Chessum, OHC, Malins, Arundell etc.. It's step change up from Eddie. He's also working to a very tight timescale leading up to the WC - I'd like to see what he does with the side when the WC is over and he has a free rein to build a new team.
This is where I'm surprised at how tentative he's been so far in his changes.

As you say, fair enough it looks like he's binned Youngs, but he's been left a mess, & he has to pick his starting SH, OH, 12, & get a replacement for Mako, who's blowing out his arse before he's run on the pitch.

He's got very few games to work out who he's going take to France, & he's running out of minutes to work out if the likes of Rapava-Ruskin can step up.
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fishfoodie wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:52 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:34 pm I agree that Borthers isn't the 'Bazball' choice - but I'm willing to give him more time before condemning him. He has, at least, binned Youngs and brought in the likes of Chessum, OHC, Malins, Arundell etc.. It's step change up from Eddie. He's also working to a very tight timescale leading up to the WC - I'd like to see what he does with the side when the WC is over and he has a free rein to build a new team.
This is where I'm surprised at how tentative he's been so far in his changes.

As you say, fair enough it looks like he's binned Youngs, but he's been left a mess, & he has to pick his starting SH, OH, 12, & get a replacement for Mako, who's blowing out his arse before he's run on the pitch.

He's got very few games to work out who he's going take to France, & he's running out of minutes to work out if the likes of Rapava-Ruskin can step up.
He's limited to how many changes he can make to the EPS. I suspect he'll take a much larger group to the world cup camp, and try a few out at the warmups.
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fishfoodie
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Raggs wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:04 pm
fishfoodie wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:52 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:34 pm I agree that Borthers isn't the 'Bazball' choice - but I'm willing to give him more time before condemning him. He has, at least, binned Youngs and brought in the likes of Chessum, OHC, Malins, Arundell etc.. It's step change up from Eddie. He's also working to a very tight timescale leading up to the WC - I'd like to see what he does with the side when the WC is over and he has a free rein to build a new team.
This is where I'm surprised at how tentative he's been so far in his changes.

As you say, fair enough it looks like he's binned Youngs, but he's been left a mess, & he has to pick his starting SH, OH, 12, & get a replacement for Mako, who's blowing out his arse before he's run on the pitch.

He's got very few games to work out who he's going take to France, & he's running out of minutes to work out if the likes of Rapava-Ruskin can step up.
He's limited to how many changes he can make to the EPS. I suspect he'll take a much larger group to the world cup camp, and try a few out at the warmups.

Ahhhh. I'd forgotten about that :thumbup:

That does hamstring him.
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Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:34 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:53 pm As I noted elsewhere, England are retreating to the mean when it comes to selection. It's a selection designed for average.

I feared Borthwick was not the right man for the job and said so before he was appointed. He's a low risk, low return coach just like he was as a player. He'll use statistics to confirm his 'logical' choices so regardless of performance, style or result he can post-rationalise and say to himself and his critics that he followed the logical path and the process led him to the team he selected. The trouble with using logic like that is that it kills magic. Result; the big, heavy slow lump who can catch is seen as more vital than the shorter, lighter player who has great footwork and lightening pace or Ben Curry gets picked instead of Ben Earl.
I agree that Borthers isn't the 'Bazball' choice - but I'm willing to give him more time before condemning him. He has, at least, binned Youngs and brought in the likes of Chessum, OHC, Malins, Arundell etc.. It's step change up from Eddie. He's also working to a very tight timescale leading up to the WC - I'd like to see what he does with the side when the WC is over and he has a free rein to build a new team.
Yep, exactly this.

A by-product of having a large player pool and a pretty flat Premiership is that there will always be selection debates, whoever is coach.
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Ovals
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fishfoodie wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:31 pm
Raggs wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:04 pm
fishfoodie wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:52 pm

This is where I'm surprised at how tentative he's been so far in his changes.

As you say, fair enough it looks like he's binned Youngs, but he's been left a mess, & he has to pick his starting SH, OH, 12, & get a replacement for Mako, who's blowing out his arse before he's run on the pitch.

He's got very few games to work out who he's going take to France, & he's running out of minutes to work out if the likes of Rapava-Ruskin can step up.
He's limited to how many changes he can make to the EPS. I suspect he'll take a much larger group to the world cup camp, and try a few out at the warmups.

Ahhhh. I'd forgotten about that :thumbup:

That does hamstring him.
Yeah - but doesn't explain his preference for Mako over Rodd on the bench - the former has looked woeful when he's come on - and it doesn't help that Cole is also very slow around the park even if he does beef up the scrum. Our bench really hasn't performed to date.
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Paddington Bear wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:44 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:34 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:53 pm As I noted elsewhere, England are retreating to the mean when it comes to selection. It's a selection designed for average.

I feared Borthwick was not the right man for the job and said so before he was appointed. He's a low risk, low return coach just like he was as a player. He'll use statistics to confirm his 'logical' choices so regardless of performance, style or result he can post-rationalise and say to himself and his critics that he followed the logical path and the process led him to the team he selected. The trouble with using logic like that is that it kills magic. Result; the big, heavy slow lump who can catch is seen as more vital than the shorter, lighter player who has great footwork and lightening pace or Ben Curry gets picked instead of Ben Earl.
I agree that Borthers isn't the 'Bazball' choice - but I'm willing to give him more time before condemning him. He has, at least, binned Youngs and brought in the likes of Chessum, OHC, Malins, Arundell etc.. It's step change up from Eddie. He's also working to a very tight timescale leading up to the WC - I'd like to see what he does with the side when the WC is over and he has a free rein to build a new team.
Yep, exactly this.

A by-product of having a large player pool and a pretty flat Premiership is that there will always be selection debates, whoever is coach.
I think he's made limited, but much needed changes in obvious areas, but is also trying to get much more from the players we already had in place. Even the sides that EJ was picking, should have been performing much better than they were - that is probably where his main focus is.
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Please explain the grubber tactic then? That was clearly something practiced on the training pitch.
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Tom Curry out for the rest of the 6N - new hamstring injury.
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Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:48 pm Please explain the grubber tactic then? That was clearly something practiced on the training pitch.
Best ask Farrell !!
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From the Telegraph
Wales’s Six Nations match against England this weekend is set to go ahead after crunch talks.

Sources close to negotiations have confirmed that this Saturday’s Test is expected to take place as planned, with players and officials from the Welsh Rugby Union and Professional Rugby Board locked in tense discussions throughout Wednesday afternoon.

Players had threatened to go on strike after they were proposed reduced contracts with fixed-variable pay bands, and in return had asked for an end to the national team’s 60-cap selection rule and a player representation on the PRB to have their say on the future of the game.

More to follow...
inactionman
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Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:15 pm From the Telegraph
Wales’s Six Nations match against England this weekend is set to go ahead after crunch talks.

Sources close to negotiations have confirmed that this Saturday’s Test is expected to take place as planned, with players and officials from the Welsh Rugby Union and Professional Rugby Board locked in tense discussions throughout Wednesday afternoon.

Players had threatened to go on strike after they were proposed reduced contracts with fixed-variable pay bands, and in return had asked for an end to the national team’s 60-cap selection rule and a player representation on the PRB to have their say on the future of the game.

More to follow...
Purely selfishly, bloody good job.
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Happy the game is going to go ahead, very concerned it's going to be a massive bananaskin. Wales may not have been training, but they're really going to have something to prove. I know it's the 6 nations and they're all big games, but when there's something so personal on the line, it'll kick things up a notch.
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Raggs wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:28 pm Happy the game is going to go ahead, very concerned it's going to be a massive bananaskin. Wales may not have been training, but they're really going to have something to prove. I know it's the 6 nations and they're all big games, but when there's something so personal on the line, it'll kick things up a notch.
Yes we're on an absolute hiding to nothing here, fuck me I hate playing Wales at the best of times
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Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:15 pm From the Telegraph
Wales’s Six Nations match against England this weekend is set to go ahead after crunch talks.

Sources close to negotiations have confirmed that this Saturday’s Test is expected to take place as planned, with players and officials from the Welsh Rugby Union and Professional Rugby Board locked in tense discussions throughout Wednesday afternoon.

Players had threatened to go on strike after they were proposed reduced contracts with fixed-variable pay bands, and in return had asked for an end to the national team’s 60-cap selection rule and a player representation on the PRB to have their say on the future of the game.

More to follow...
Gavin Mairs is usually one of the more accurate rugby correspondents so fingers crossed.
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SaintK wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:40 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:15 pm From the Telegraph
Wales’s Six Nations match against England this weekend is set to go ahead after crunch talks.

Sources close to negotiations have confirmed that this Saturday’s Test is expected to take place as planned, with players and officials from the Welsh Rugby Union and Professional Rugby Board locked in tense discussions throughout Wednesday afternoon.

Players had threatened to go on strike after they were proposed reduced contracts with fixed-variable pay bands, and in return had asked for an end to the national team’s 60-cap selection rule and a player representation on the PRB to have their say on the future of the game.

More to follow...
Gavin Mairs is usually one of the more accurate rugby correspondents so fingers crossed.
Go Ahead confirmed by the Beeb :clap:
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Kawazaki
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Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:55 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:48 pm Please explain the grubber tactic then? That was clearly something practiced on the training pitch.
Best ask Farrell !!

Farrell was rubbish and should have known better but he would never do that for his club. Smith did the same as soon as he came on and even Earl did it. That was coach-led.
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Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:23 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:55 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:48 pm Please explain the grubber tactic then? That was clearly something practiced on the training pitch.
Best ask Farrell !!

Farrell was rubbish and should have known better but he would never do that for his club. Smith did the same as soon as he came on and even Earl did it. That was coach-led.
They clearly identified Italy's weakness in exiting from deep in their 22 - but I doubt the coaches asked them to kick away overlaps - that's down to the player/s to use their heads. Anyway, we've done that one to death.
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Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:30 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:23 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:55 pm

Best ask Farrell !!

Farrell was rubbish and should have known better but he would never do that for his club. Smith did the same as soon as he came on and even Earl did it. That was coach-led.
They clearly identified Italy's weakness in exiting from deep in their 22 - but I doubt the coaches asked them to kick away overlaps - that's down to the player/s to use their heads. Anyway, we've done that one to death.


Not really - it ties in with how Borthwick is preparing the team to play. Remember how Borthwick's Leicester played? :wtf:
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Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:48 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:30 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:23 pm


Farrell was rubbish and should have known better but he would never do that for his club. Smith did the same as soon as he came on and even Earl did it. That was coach-led.
They clearly identified Italy's weakness in exiting from deep in their 22 - but I doubt the coaches asked them to kick away overlaps - that's down to the player/s to use their heads. Anyway, we've done that one to death.


Not really - it ties in with how Borthwick is preparing the team to play. Remember how Borthwick's Leicester played? :wtf:
Yeah - OK - Borthers told Farrell that he was, in all circumstances, to kick Grubbers their 22, regardless of any overlaps. :bimbo:
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Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:48 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:30 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:23 pm


Farrell was rubbish and should have known better but he would never do that for his club. Smith did the same as soon as he came on and even Earl did it. That was coach-led.
They clearly identified Italy's weakness in exiting from deep in their 22 - but I doubt the coaches asked them to kick away overlaps - that's down to the player/s to use their heads. Anyway, we've done that one to death.


Not really - it ties in with how Borthwick is preparing the team to play. Remember how Borthwick's Leicester played? :wtf:
Quite. His Tigers were a very pragmatic bunch who kicked a lot. Ford provided some sparkle to make the difference every now and then.

I suspect we shan't see quite so much kicking away of good ball in future fixtures, but because the players were crap at it and picked poor moments to do so rather than because it was only in the very specific plan to take on Italy.
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sockwithaticket wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:58 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:48 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:30 pm

They clearly identified Italy's weakness in exiting from deep in their 22 - but I doubt the coaches asked them to kick away overlaps - that's down to the player/s to use their heads. Anyway, we've done that one to death.


Not really - it ties in with how Borthwick is preparing the team to play. Remember how Borthwick's Leicester played? :wtf:
Quite. His Tigers were a very pragmatic bunch who kicked a lot. Ford provided some sparkle to make the difference every now and then.

I suspect we shan't see quite so much kicking away of good ball in future fixtures, but because the players were crap at it and picked poor moments to do so rather than because it was only in the very specific plan to take on Italy.
Being pragmatic is a good thing.
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Let's kick to apply pressure, so we can create try scoring opportunities, and when we get those try scoring opportunities, let's kick to apply pressure so we can create try scoring opportunities, and when we create those opportunities, let's kick so we can....

We created plenty of opportunities and overlaps, the kicking had done the job, it cannot be the default. Yes we dragged italian defenders into the backfield, brilliant, then we kept kicking to them!
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Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:40 pm
sockwithaticket wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:58 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:48 pm



Not really - it ties in with how Borthwick is preparing the team to play. Remember how Borthwick's Leicester played? :wtf:
Quite. His Tigers were a very pragmatic bunch who kicked a lot. Ford provided some sparkle to make the difference every now and then.

I suspect we shan't see quite so much kicking away of good ball in future fixtures, but because the players were crap at it and picked poor moments to do so rather than because it was only in the very specific plan to take on Italy.
Being pragmatic is a good thing.
To a point, but it can't be allowed to take over and quash any risk taking at all or get us caught in a loop of pursuing percentage options without actually utilising any opportunities they produce as Raggs described.
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Leicester weren't known for kicking the ball away after their kicking game had produced territorial advantage, and it's wildly disingenous to claim they did. Leicester wanted ball in hand near the oppo 22 because they trusted their power game and their ability to convert from set pieces. There's a huge difference between kicking from halfway/40m out when you're outnumbered and kicking as the option on good attacking ball.


On another, note, how fucking ridiculous is this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/64723422

Tuilagi, 31, was given the suspension for an elbow to the head of Saints' Tommy Freeman at a citing hearing.

The ban will be cut to three games if he attends a World Rugby coaching workshop to improve tackle technique.
Manu was the fucking ball carrier
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Kawazaki
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Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:57 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:48 pm
Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:30 pm

They clearly identified Italy's weakness in exiting from deep in their 22 - but I doubt the coaches asked them to kick away overlaps - that's down to the player/s to use their heads. Anyway, we've done that one to death.


Not really - it ties in with how Borthwick is preparing the team to play. Remember how Borthwick's Leicester played? :wtf:
Yeah - OK - Borthers told Farrell that he was, in all circumstances, to kick Grubbers their 22, regardless of any overlaps. :bimbo:


You didn't watch the Premiership final last year then?

I said Farrell was rubbish but he was playing to a coaching plan.
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Ovals wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:40 pm
sockwithaticket wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:58 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:48 pm



Not really - it ties in with how Borthwick is preparing the team to play. Remember how Borthwick's Leicester played? :wtf:
Quite. His Tigers were a very pragmatic bunch who kicked a lot. Ford provided some sparkle to make the difference every now and then.

I suspect we shan't see quite so much kicking away of good ball in future fixtures, but because the players were crap at it and picked poor moments to do so rather than because it was only in the very specific plan to take on Italy.
Being pragmatic is a good thing.


It's a good thing if you are in charge of a business that makes ladders.

Borthwick is a rugby coach. Some creativity, and originality are required.
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SaintK
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JM2K6 wrote: Wed Feb 22, 2023 11:42 pm Leicester weren't known for kicking the ball away after their kicking game had produced territorial advantage, and it's wildly disingenous to claim they did. Leicester wanted ball in hand near the oppo 22 because they trusted their power game and their ability to convert from set pieces. There's a huge difference between kicking from halfway/40m out when you're outnumbered and kicking as the option on good attacking ball.


On another, note, how fucking ridiculous is this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/64723422

Tuilagi, 31, was given the suspension for an elbow to the head of Saints' Tommy Freeman at a citing hearing.

The ban will be cut to three games if he attends a World Rugby coaching workshop to improve tackle technique.
Manu was the fucking ball carrier
Ludicrous.
They obviously don't have coaching workshop to cut out forearm smashes to the throat :roll:
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The charge they hit him with comes under the framework that allows the tackle course. Guessing it's more to do with hitting the head than being tackler.
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Joost
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Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:35 am

Being reported in several places that Watson will come in for OHC and Lawes in for Itoje(!), who is benched. Otherwise no changes from last week.

Thought Maro was decent against Italy and not sure about the wisdom of parachuting Lawes straight back in with no recent game time. OHC is injured apparently, though hasn’t made much of an impact - thought he might be in trouble anyway.
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Margin__Walker
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Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:47 am

Joost wrote: Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:23 am Being reported in several places that Watson will come in for OHC and Lawes in for Itoje(!), who is benched. Otherwise no changes from last week.

Thought Maro was decent against Italy and not sure about the wisdom of parachuting Lawes straight back in with no recent game time. OHC is injured apparently, though hasn’t made much of an impact - thought he might be in trouble anyway.
Mail have Lawes onto the bench which sounds far more realistic.

We'll see though.
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