NPR

Grandpa wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:09 pm In the UK, if you are under 50 is there no way to get a Covid booster if you want it?

Biffer wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:11 pm

Grandpa wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:09 pm In the UK, if you are under 50 is there no way to get a Covid booster if you want it?

Not at the moment, unless you're in an at risk group / carer / frontline medical worker etc.

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 11:25 am 90% of people in Henan province infected according to health official

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64208127

Find it easy to believe, instead of the 3, 4 or 5 fives that most countries experienced they're having one big fuck off wave.

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:33 pm Sure, but this wave is so big partly because of the lack of previous ones. Any future SARS COV 2 waves would likley be smaller as well.

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:33 pm Sure, but this wave is so big partly because of the lack of previous ones. Any future SARS COV 2 waves would likley be smaller as well.

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Jan 10, 2023 11:04 am

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:33 pm Sure, but this wave is so big partly because of the lack of previous ones. Any future SARS COV 2 waves would likley be smaller as well.

Nope! Just because lots of people caught it this time doesn't mean lots of people won't catch it a 2nd, 3rd or 4th time. Hopefully there will be a build up of immunity from prior infection and/or vaccination that is true but many folk contract covid multiple times despite this. My mate has been fully vaxxed x4 and had covid a year ago yet caught it again last month. He says the 2nd dose was far worse than the first and laid him low for about 10 days, the first dose barely made him ill. However in China as is the case here it is likely that hospitalisation and death rates will be reduced during subsequent waves but many will still feel ill and some will be hospitalised, as we are seeing here.

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Jan 10, 2023 11:04 am

Calculon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:33 pm Sure, but this wave is so big partly because of the lack of previous ones. Any future SARS COV 2 waves would likley be smaller as well.

Nope! Just because lots of people caught it this time doesn't mean lots of people won't catch it a 2nd, 3rd or 4th time. Hopefully there will be a build up of immunity from prior infection and/or vaccination that is true but many folk contract covid multiple times despite this. My mate has been fully vaxxed x4 and had covid a year ago yet caught it again last month. He says the 2nd dose was far worse than the first and laid him low for about 10 days, the first dose barely made him ill. However in China as is the case here it is likely that hospitalisation and death rates will be reduced during subsequent waves but many will still feel ill and some will be hospitalised, as we are seeing here.

petej wrote: ↑Tue Jan 10, 2023 12:03 pm
Edit: to clarify china will have a big wave (currently) then a pattern of progressively smaller waves then come next year and for the foreseeable future will have medium sized waves.

Results: Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 10.1 and 15.1 per 10,000 vaccinated over placebo baselines of 17.6 and 42.2 (95 % CI -0.4 to 20.6 and -3.6 to 33.8), respectively. Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 2.1 to 22.9); risk ratio 1.43 (95 % CI 1.07 to 1.92). The Pfizer trial exhibited a 36 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group; risk difference 18.0 per 10,000 vaccinated (95 % CI 1.2 to 34.9); risk ratio 1.36 (95 % CI 1.02 to 1.83). The Moderna trial exhibited a 6 % higher risk of serious adverse events in the vaccine group: risk difference 7.1 per 10,000 (95 % CI -23.2 to 37.4); risk ratio 1.06 (95 % CI 0.84 to 1.33). Combined, there was a 16 % higher risk of serious adverse events in mRNA vaccine recipients: risk difference 13.2 (95 % CI -3.2 to 29.6); risk ratio 1.16 (95 % CI 0.97 to 1.39).

Discussion: The excess risk of serious adverse events found in our study points to the need for formal harm-benefit analyses, particularly those that are stratified according to risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes. These analyses will require public release of participant level datasets.

We also assessed if the difference in the risk of death involving COVID-19 between Omicron and Delta variants varied by age and sex. The risk of death varied by age, with those aged under 70 years (Aged 18-59 years: hazard ratio: 0.13, 95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.30; Aged 60-69 years: hazard ratio: 0.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.05 to 0.36) having a greater reduction in the risk of COVID-19 death with Omicron compared with Delta than individuals aged 70 years and over (hazard ratio: 0.45, 95% confidence interval: 0.16 to 1.24).

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 10:36 am So, myocarditis… Well, vaccine injury …

What does the boreds mega-jabbers say about this?

To add, I’m not talking about the past where dangerous variants were circulating, but from here on in. Which cohorts of people do we feel the current benefits of the vaccine are outweighed by risk? Young and healthy for example.

FalseBayFC wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 3:59 pm

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 10:36 am So, myocarditis… Well, vaccine injury …

What does the boreds mega-jabbers say about this?

To add, I’m not talking about the past where dangerous variants were circulating, but from here on in. Which cohorts of people do we feel the current benefits of the vaccine are outweighed by risk? Young and healthy for example.

I'm contemplating my 4th jab. My doc says go for it. My octogenarian parents have been advised not to by their GP. I've read that myocarditis and pericarditis is something that young adults are more at risk from?

Dinsdale Piranha wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:45 pm

FalseBayFC wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 3:59 pm

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 10:36 am So, myocarditis… Well, vaccine injury …

What does the boreds mega-jabbers say about this?

To add, I’m not talking about the past where dangerous variants were circulating, but from here on in. Which cohorts of people do we feel the current benefits of the vaccine are outweighed by risk? Young and healthy for example.

I'm contemplating my 4th jab. My doc says go for it. My octogenarian parents have been advised not to by their GP. I've read that myocarditis and pericarditis is something that young adults are more at risk from?

Have you (or your parents) had COVID?

Evidence seems to be that if you have had COVID then more than 2 jabs doesn't provide any extra benefit.

To Ymx's point. Risk from COVID increases massively with age. If you are old, the risk of COVID is way, way higher than the risk of the vaccines. For the young, it's much less clear cut.

Dinsdale Piranha wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:45 pm

FalseBayFC wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 3:59 pm

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 10:36 am So, myocarditis… Well, vaccine injury …

What does the boreds mega-jabbers say about this?

To add, I’m not talking about the past where dangerous variants were circulating, but from here on in. Which cohorts of people do we feel the current benefits of the vaccine are outweighed by risk? Young and healthy for example.

I'm contemplating my 4th jab. My doc says go for it. My octogenarian parents have been advised not to by their GP. I've read that myocarditis and pericarditis is something that young adults are more at risk from?

Have you (or your parents) had COVID?

Evidence seems to be that if you have had COVID then more than 2 jabs doesn't provide any extra benefit.

To Ymx's point. Risk from COVID increases massively with age. If you are old, the risk of COVID is way, way higher than the risk of the vaccines. For the young, it's much less clear cut.

FalseBayFC wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:09 pm

Dinsdale Piranha wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:45 pm

FalseBayFC wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 3:59 pm
I'm contemplating my 4th jab. My doc says go for it. My octogenarian parents have been advised not to by their GP. I've read that myocarditis and pericarditis is something that young adults are more at risk from?

Have you (or your parents) had COVID?

Evidence seems to be that if you have had COVID then more than 2 jabs doesn't provide any extra benefit.

To Ymx's point. Risk from COVID increases massively with age. If you are old, the risk of COVID is way, way higher than the risk of the vaccines. For the young, it's much less clear cut.

I am 51 and in good shape. I did have a stroke a few years back though and I take meds for blood pressure but play touch rugby, squash and cricket. I did test positive for Covid after the first two shots of Pfizer.

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:06 pm That’s what I was trying to figure out, badly.

But also how is it for those already had covid and jabbed.

I’ve had covid twice and three jabs. I suspect I only stand to gain a vaccine injury by getting another jab.

But I was hoping to see it with numbers.

Biffer wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:35 pm

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:06 pm That’s what I was trying to figure out, badly.

But also how is it for those already had covid and jabbed.

I’ve had covid twice and three jabs. I suspect I only stand to gain a vaccine injury by getting another jab.

But I was hoping to see it with numbers.

There’s going to be a few years in there where it’s roughly equivalent. I’m over fifty and got a booster in December. From what I’ve seen and read (and I work in science, with a decent understanding of statistics) I reckon it’s probably better for me personally.

Enzedder wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:53 pm Depends really. Of those adverse effects, how many were feeling lethargic and how many ended up in hospital?. Needs more filling before baking I fear

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England increased to 1.60% in the week ending 21 November 2022.

Overall hospital admissions increased slightly to 4.69 per 100,000 people, while ICU and HDU admissions remained low, at 0.11 per 100,000 people, in the week ending 27 November 2022.

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:07 pm With our current level of vaccination

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... s/overview

ONS report

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England increased to 1.60% in the week ending 21 November 2022.

Overall hospital admissions increased slightly to 4.69 per 100,000 people, while ICU and HDU admissions remained low, at 0.11 per 100,000 people, in the week ending 27 November 2022.

4 of 100,000 are hospitalised
1.6% of pop have covid. Or 1600 out of 100k

1 in 400 of those with covid are hospitalised.


So it’s kind of the same playing field as the shot itself.

If it’s 12.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 800) it’s worth getting the shot, depending on age.

If it’s 42.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 235), then probably not worth getting it.


I’d appreciate someone checking this. I don’t want to be putting out incorrect analysis on this.

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:07 pm With our current level of vaccination

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... s/overview

ONS report

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England increased to 1.60% in the week ending 21 November 2022.

Overall hospital admissions increased slightly to 4.69 per 100,000 people, while ICU and HDU admissions remained low, at 0.11 per 100,000 people, in the week ending 27 November 2022.

4 of 100,000 are hospitalised
1.6% of pop have covid. Or 1600 out of 100k

1 in 400 of those with covid are hospitalised.


So it’s kind of the same playing field as the shot itself.

If it’s 12.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 800) it’s worth getting the shot, depending on age.

If it’s 42.5 in 10,000 risk of vaccine injury (or 1 in 235), then probably not worth getting it.


I’d appreciate someone checking this. I don’t want to be putting out incorrect analysis on this.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday that there is a possible safety issue with the bivalent Covid-19 vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech but that it is unlikely to represent a true risk. The agency said it continues to recommend that people stay up-to-date with Covid-19 vaccines.

The CDC said one of its vaccine safety monitoring systems – a “near real-time surveillance system” called the Vaccine Safety Datalink – detected a possible increase in a certain kind of stroke in people 65 and older who recently got one of Pfizer’s updated booster shots.

A rapid response analysis of that signal revealed that seniors who got an bivalent booster might be more likely to have ischemic strokes within the first three weeks after their shots, compared with weeks four through six.

Biffer wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:31 pm

FalseBayFC wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:09 pm

Dinsdale Piranha wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:45 pm
Have you (or your parents) had COVID?

Evidence seems to be that if you have had COVID then more than 2 jabs doesn't provide any extra benefit.

To Ymx's point. Risk from COVID increases massively with age. If you are old, the risk of COVID is way, way higher than the risk of the vaccines. For the young, it's much less clear cut.

I am 51 and in good shape. I did have a stroke a few years back though and I take meds for blood pressure but play touch rugby, squash and cricket. I did test positive for Covid after the first two shots of Pfizer.

You’re a high risk group. I’d be amazed if your risk when getting covid isn’t higher than your risk from the jab.

I am not a medical professional and am in no way offering advice,

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:27 am "Adverse reactions" is, I suspect without any further information, just like the warnings for any over the counter medicine which range from, 1 in 250 "Mild headache or slight nausea" to 1 in a million "Your testicles catch fire and roll down the street."

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:27 am "Adverse reactions" is, I suspect without any further information, just like the warnings for any over the counter medicine which range from, 1 in 250 "Mild headache or slight nausea" to 1 in a million "Your testicles catch fire and roll down the street."

Ymx wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 9:29 am

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:27 am "Adverse reactions" is, I suspect without any further information, just like the warnings for any over the counter medicine which range from, 1 in 250 "Mild headache or slight nausea" to 1 in a million "Your testicles catch fire and roll down the street."

In the study it refers to
“Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults”

So that presumably is not simply headaches.