NPR

salanya wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:06 am Lots of positive outcomes, though how 25% of voters decided to vote conservative after 14 years of shit show, is concerning.

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:17 am They've got 5 years now, regardless of whether this is them winning or the tories losing or whatever, they have 5 years. Lib Dem have 5 years to solidify those seats as much as possible too.

Gaza won't have disappeared, but hopefully be less of a hot topic. It's disappointing that MPs can be elected on a single foreign issue, they're there to represent the constituency, what the hell is a single independent going to do about Gaza?

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:17 am They've got 5 years now, regardless of whether this is them winning or the tories losing or whatever, they have 5 years. Lib Dem have 5 years to solidify those seats as much as possible too.

Gaza won't have disappeared, but hopefully be less of a hot topic. It's disappointing that MPs can be elected on a single foreign issue, they're there to represent the constituency, what the hell is a single independent going to do about Gaza?

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:39 am I don't know if this is true, but there's probably a few close calls out there that may well be disputed over the postal vote issues:

https://x.com/willglloyd/status/1809054323852169375

Will
@willglloyd
Badenoch's majority is 2600, an estimated 2600 postal votes did not go out in her seat.

Labour could very well end up challenging this result to force a by-election, blocking her from standing for Tory leader.

Sandstorm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:21 am

salanya wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:06 am Lots of positive outcomes, though how 25% of voters decided to vote conservative after 14 years of shit show, is concerning.

A lot of Brits think Starmer/Labour are Commies coming to heavily tax their pensions and rent out that 2nd bedroom. Likewise those with Private Investment portfolios are regularly warned by their brokers that only the Tories will protect their futures.

sturginho wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:38 am Tories hold my constituency, I fucking hate my neighbours

Hal Jordan wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:49 am

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:39 am I don't know if this is true, but there's probably a few close calls out there that may well be disputed over the postal vote issues:

https://x.com/willglloyd/status/1809054323852169375

Will
@willglloyd
Badenoch's majority is 2600, an estimated 2600 postal votes did not go out in her seat.

Labour could very well end up challenging this result to force a by-election, blocking her from standing for Tory leader.

Given that she was whining this week about the possibility of her losing it on delayed postal votes, she's been curiously silent on the subject following the result.

tc27 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:48 am FPTP is designed to keep the fringe out and give the largest party a working majority.....it's absurd in many ways but it usually delivers both of those. Im open to it changing but the replacement must be considered carefully.

Very gracious speech by Sunak.

sockwithaticket wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:51 am

Sandstorm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:21 am

salanya wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:06 am Lots of positive outcomes, though how 25% of voters decided to vote conservative after 14 years of shit show, is concerning.

A lot of Brits think Starmer/Labour are Commies coming to heavily tax their pensions and rent out that 2nd bedroom. Likewise those with Private Investment portfolios are regularly warned by their brokers that only the Tories will protect their futures.

On his podcast Alistair Campbell was recounting someone he met on the doorstep this campaign who was absolutely livid with Labour because of what their last Prime Minister did to the country. Campbell had to cycle through all the actual former Labour PM's of the last almost century before the guy said he was talking about Corbyn.



I dunno what you do about an electorate that fabricates alternate realities for themselves and swallows outright lies like the £2000 tax thing, which, according to many of the pollsters, had a lot of cut through.

Paddington Bear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:55 am
In fairness Alastair Campbell has some fucking neck complaining about alternate realities, misleading voters and just about anything else. The fact he’s developed such a following is rage inducing.

FPTP is rarely fair but it’s rarely been this unfair

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:28 am
Reform UK: 4,073,607 (4)

Sunak says he will resign as Tory leader. But he says he will not do so immediately - only when formal arrangements for a successor have taken place.

"It is important that, after 14 years in government, the Conservative party rebuilds, but also that it takes up its crucial role in opposition professionally and effectively."

Sandstorm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:04 am

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:28 am
Reform UK: 4,073,607 (4)

'Lotta racists on board, Cap'n"

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:07 am

Sandstorm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:04 am

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:28 am
Reform UK: 4,073,607 (4)

'Lotta racists on board, Cap'n"

Scary stuff, really scary stuff. A lot of the boys I coach (including my own) have at least one parent who's an immigrant, it's outright depressing seeing that number. My constituency just put Con in charge, with Reform in 2nd. If Lab/Grn/LibDem added up together, they'd have bigger numbers sure, but it's still a crazy amount of racists. They try and justify it by the people they know are "the good ones".

Slick wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:11 am

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:07 am

Sandstorm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:04 am

'Lotta racists on board, Cap'n"

Scary stuff, really scary stuff. A lot of the boys I coach (including my own) have at least one parent who's an immigrant, it's outright depressing seeing that number. My constituency just put Con in charge, with Reform in 2nd. If Lab/Grn/LibDem added up together, they'd have bigger numbers sure, but it's still a crazy amount of racists. They try and justify it by the people they know are "the good ones".

When I was watching last night I was constantly amazed at the number of votes Reform were getting up here, I had assumed it was just an English thing - they didn't come anywhere near to winning anything, but still, to me, a surprising number of votes. The lady analysing for BBC Scotland was surprising candid - something along the lines of "Maybe this will dispel the myth that we are some kind of social utopia in Scotland that is better than England, we have plenty of racists too" - then went back to staring at her screen.

sockwithaticket wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:33 am Yeah, I think it's beyond doubt that a lot of people who support Reform are simply racist, but there are also plenty who just live in deprived areas where things continue to get shitter and that correlates with the number of migrants increasing where they live. Obviously correlation is not causation, but frustrated, desperate people can end up being quite reactionary and create causal links where they don't exist. Make them more prosperous or at least less precarious with genuine levelling up and improvement of decaying areas and many would be a lot less concerned by migrants.

Connected to that is that, even though their leadership is a bunch of posh, rich wankers, they are Westminster outsiders. As far as a lot of people are concerned the main parties haven't done much of anything for them over the course of decades now and they are completely disillusioned with mainstream politics. A new group with none of that baggage claiming to have the answers will have a certain level of appeal to the hopeless and angry.

It is concerning to see the rise of Reform, but to address it we need to understand why people are drawn towards the rhetoric.

sockwithaticket wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:33 am Yeah, I think it's beyond doubt that a lot of people who support Reform are simply racist, but there are also plenty who just live in deprived areas where things continue to get shitter and that correlates with the number of migrants increasing where they live. Obviously correlation is not causation, but frustrated, desperate people can end up being quite reactionary and create causal links where they don't exist. Make them more prosperous or at least less precarious with genuine levelling up and improvement of decaying areas and many would be a lot less concerned by migrants.

Connected to that is that, even though their leadership is a bunch of posh, rich wankers, they are Westminster outsiders. As far as a lot of people are concerned the main parties haven't done much of anything for them over the course of decades now and they are completely disillusioned with mainstream politics. A new group with none of that baggage claiming to have the answers will have a certain level of appeal to the hopeless and angry.

It is concerning to see the rise of Reform, but to address it we need to understand why people are drawn towards the rhetoric.

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:35 am

sockwithaticket wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:33 am Yeah, I think it's beyond doubt that a lot of people who support Reform are simply racist, but there are also plenty who just live in deprived areas where things continue to get shitter and that correlates with the number of migrants increasing where they live. Obviously correlation is not causation, but frustrated, desperate people can end up being quite reactionary and create causal links where they don't exist. Make them more prosperous or at least less precarious with genuine levelling up and improvement of decaying areas and many would be a lot less concerned by migrants.

Connected to that is that, even though their leadership is a bunch of posh, rich wankers, they are Westminster outsiders. As far as a lot of people are concerned the main parties haven't done much of anything for them over the course of decades now and they are completely disillusioned with mainstream politics. A new group with none of that baggage claiming to have the answers will have a certain level of appeal to the hopeless and angry.

It is concerning to see the rise of Reform, but to address it we need to understand why people are drawn towards the rhetoric.

Reform was also promising ponies for everyone basically. Anyone stupid enough to believe them might not be racist, but just daft.

Paddington Bear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:40 am I just don’t think Reform’s surge is a surprise. Both parties have promised to cut migration at every election for 20 years and have done the opposite. The Tories turbo charged it and have lost total control over the last 5 years. Is it any wonder that people then try something more radical when they’ve had two fingers stuck up at them so clearly and regularly?

Proportionate controls and manageable numbers would have Farage on a plane to the States and Reform polling near zero (as they were after 2019 in a previous guise when their voters though Boris would live up to his word). This is an easily surmountable problem if any party cared to grasp it

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:42 am

Paddington Bear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:40 am I just don’t think Reform’s surge is a surprise. Both parties have promised to cut migration at every election for 20 years and have done the opposite. The Tories turbo charged it and have lost total control over the last 5 years. Is it any wonder that people then try something more radical when they’ve had two fingers stuck up at them so clearly and regularly?

Proportionate controls and manageable numbers would have Farage on a plane to the States and Reform polling near zero (as they were after 2019 in a previous guise when their voters though Boris would live up to his word). This is an easily surmountable problem if any party cared to grasp it

Starmer's response in the debate was really soft, but completely correct, he said they'd get to processing them, since without processing them they can't do anything else. I love Reforms claim that they'll just take them to France, who's going to force France to take them from us???

Paddington Bear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:43 am

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:42 am

Paddington Bear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:40 am I just don’t think Reform’s surge is a surprise. Both parties have promised to cut migration at every election for 20 years and have done the opposite. The Tories turbo charged it and have lost total control over the last 5 years. Is it any wonder that people then try something more radical when they’ve had two fingers stuck up at them so clearly and regularly?

Proportionate controls and manageable numbers would have Farage on a plane to the States and Reform polling near zero (as they were after 2019 in a previous guise when their voters though Boris would live up to his word). This is an easily surmountable problem if any party cared to grasp it

Starmer's response in the debate was really soft, but completely correct, he said they'd get to processing them, since without processing them they can't do anything else. I love Reforms claim that they'll just take them to France, who's going to force France to take them from us???

I didn’t vote for Reform and didn’t claim they have proper answers. But why would anyone who’s vote is based on migration believe either of the two main parties on the issue? Why not take a punt?

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:42 am

Paddington Bear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:40 am I just don’t think Reform’s surge is a surprise. Both parties have promised to cut migration at every election for 20 years and have done the opposite. The Tories turbo charged it and have lost total control over the last 5 years. Is it any wonder that people then try something more radical when they’ve had two fingers stuck up at them so clearly and regularly?

Proportionate controls and manageable numbers would have Farage on a plane to the States and Reform polling near zero (as they were after 2019 in a previous guise when their voters though Boris would live up to his word). This is an easily surmountable problem if any party cared to grasp it

Starmer's response in the debate was really soft, but completely correct, he said they'd get to processing them, since without processing them they can't do anything else. I love Reforms claim that they'll just take them to France, who's going to force France to take them from us???

I like neeps wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:50 am

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:42 am

Paddington Bear wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:40 am I just don’t think Reform’s surge is a surprise. Both parties have promised to cut migration at every election for 20 years and have done the opposite. The Tories turbo charged it and have lost total control over the last 5 years. Is it any wonder that people then try something more radical when they’ve had two fingers stuck up at them so clearly and regularly?

Proportionate controls and manageable numbers would have Farage on a plane to the States and Reform polling near zero (as they were after 2019 in a previous guise when their voters though Boris would live up to his word). This is an easily surmountable problem if any party cared to grasp it

Starmer's response in the debate was really soft, but completely correct, he said they'd get to processing them, since without processing them they can't do anything else. I love Reforms claim that they'll just take them to France, who's going to force France to take them from us???

I agree that effective removals post claim is essential. But removals is kind of irrelevant to the voter who cares because they aren't shown in (a) small boat arrival numbers or (b) legal migration numbers. Farage understands that.

Reform doing well isn't a surprise. They have a lot of supporters and Europe + the US anti immigration right politician do well with voters who are angry and miserable. The only way for Reform to do badly is for the centre govts to deliver quality outcomes. Which takes more than one Parliament (and money Labour won't spend/don't have) sadly.

I like neeps wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:50 am
Reform doing well isn't a surprise. They have a lot of supporters and Europe + the US anti immigration right politician do well with voters who are angry and miserable. The only way for Reform to do badly is for the centre govts to deliver quality outcomes. Which takes more than one Parliament (and money Labour won't spend/don't have) sadly.

Sandstorm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:59 am

I like neeps wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:50 am
Reform doing well isn't a surprise. They have a lot of supporters and Europe + the US anti immigration right politician do well with voters who are angry and miserable. The only way for Reform to do badly is for the centre govts to deliver quality outcomes. Which takes more than one Parliament (and money Labour won't spend/don't have) sadly.

I don't agree with that. Processing immigrants/refugees is the cheapest of the Big Issues Facing Britain by far!! Add some people to the department, follow the law and get people integrated or deported (not to Rwanda). Then Reform just dies on the vine.

Compared to NHS, Public Services, Debt, Infrastructure, Law & Order......this is an easy and cheap win.

In his speech earlier Sunak paid tribute to Starmer, describing him as a “decent, public spirited man”. The outgoing prime minister said “He and his family deserve the very best of our understanding as they make the huge transition to their new lives behind this door.”

robmatic wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:17 am

Sandstorm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:59 am

I like neeps wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:50 am
Reform doing well isn't a surprise. They have a lot of supporters and Europe + the US anti immigration right politician do well with voters who are angry and miserable. The only way for Reform to do badly is for the centre govts to deliver quality outcomes. Which takes more than one Parliament (and money Labour won't spend/don't have) sadly.

I don't agree with that. Processing immigrants/refugees is the cheapest of the Big Issues Facing Britain by far!! Add some people to the department, follow the law and get people integrated or deported (not to Rwanda). Then Reform just dies on the vine.

Compared to NHS, Public Services, Debt, Infrastructure, Law & Order......this is an easy and cheap win.

This and actually building some houses would be the easiest potential wins for the incoming government but I'm not sure there is the institutional capacity in the UK.

Sandstorm wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:59 am

I like neeps wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:50 am
Reform doing well isn't a surprise. They have a lot of supporters and Europe + the US anti immigration right politician do well with voters who are angry and miserable. The only way for Reform to do badly is for the centre govts to deliver quality outcomes. Which takes more than one Parliament (and money Labour won't spend/don't have) sadly.

I don't agree with that. Processing immigrants/refugees is the cheapest of the Big Issues Facing Britain by far!! Add some people to the department, follow the law and get people integrated or deported (not to Rwanda). Then Reform just dies on the vine.

Compared to NHS, Public Services, Debt, Infrastructure, Law & Order......this is an easy and cheap win.

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:54 am

Hal Jordan wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:49 am

Raggs wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:39 am I don't know if this is true, but there's probably a few close calls out there that may well be disputed over the postal vote issues:

https://x.com/willglloyd/status/1809054323852169375

Will
@willglloyd
Badenoch's majority is 2600, an estimated 2600 postal votes did not go out in her seat.

Labour could very well end up challenging this result to force a by-election, blocking her from standing for Tory leader.

Given that she was whining this week about the possibility of her losing it on delayed postal votes, she's been curiously silent on the subject following the result.

I suspect every one where the postal vote count matches or exceed the majority, may end up being challenged. And rightly so. The question is though, who would it actually help? If it could just be the postal votes, that's one thing, but it can't, it would have to be the whole thing again.

tc27 wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:48 am FPTP is designed to keep the fringe out and give the largest party a working majority.....it's absurd in many ways but it usually delivers both of those. Im open to it changing but the replacement must be considered carefully.

Very gracious speech by Sunak.

I quite like the idea of alternate vote, you still end up with the potential of FPTP in terms of fringe being removed, and parties getting reasonable numbers, but at the same time, you do encourage people to vote for who they actually want first and foremost.