Stop voting for fucking Tories

[Slick]

I don’t know the answer to this, but surely policy decisions can be made to get people already here, immigrants or not, to take the jobs that constantly seem to be needed to be filled by more immigrants

Not possible. Just before the Brexit vote I had an argument with my wife’s cousin, 2 kids in their mid twenties with degrees both sat on their arses doing nothing. He was voting leave cos migrants, I said if our kids were taking those jobs then we wouldn’t need migrants, to which of course he agreed. I then suggested his kids could get jobs as cleaners cos we’d never had white British cleaners at work (in 40 odd years) to which he obviously replied “why should they have to do that”

For the first half of the 20th century the clothing industry in the UK was kept alive by the Jews, for the second half it was Pakistanis, Indians, Bangladeshis, Cypriots. By the 21st century pretty much no second/third generation migrants were working in clothing factories so a lot of the jobs were taken up by EU migrants.

Now the industry is more or less extinct.

The biggest issue here is the end of FOM, EU migrants were much more likely to go home afterwards. So right wing populists properly fucked themselves over, their followers will ensure that the same thing keeps happening.

The kind of policies that some of you are talking about are generational if not multi generational, that does not align with 4-5yearly cycles in a system where politicians working together across party seems to mean shouting at each other.

Really interesting point about EU migrants returning home, hadn’t properly considered that before.

My example of a policy change would be in the care sector. My dad ended up in a care home for the last stages of Alzheimer’s. There was a constant flow of immigrants who were utterly professional and awesome people - we are still in touch with 2 of them - but without deviation the path was - shit pay, shit conditions in a care home - join the NHS as nurses - shit pay, shit conditions - husband/family arrived - drop out of work - new immigrants come to continue the cycle. All the time the care home group are posting massive profits and the directors are arriving once a month in Jags.

Fine the fuck out of them if they don’t provide pay and conditions that keep staff. Refuse to allow them access to visas if they can’t keep staff

There are something like 250,000 registered nurses in the U.K. not working in the NHS because pay and conditions are awful and they need to be constantly replaced because of this

[Paddington Bear]

Just read only 16% of non EU migrants were via work visas.

JFC.

It’s been hard not to notice the rapid demographic change, but when stuff like this finally gets laid out it still shocks me

I’ve been in London all week and although it sounds strange even saying it, I even noticed the difference there. The number of Uber drivers was insane - as was their driving - and the roads around central London were the worst for congestion I have seen in many years

Yep. It’s actually more noticeable in slightly smaller cities, the Midlands in particular.

[robmatic]

Just read only 16% of non EU migrants were via work visas.

JFC.

Meanwhile it would be a ballache for me and my non-EU wife to return to the UK because the process is so lengthy and we have careers and a small child. Basically I would have to either leave them in Turkey for 6 months while I proved my income in the UK or sell my flat in Edinburgh in order to meet the cash requirements.

It's great that the system works for Deliveroo drivers and the non-working in huge numbers but not for educated professionals, isn't it?

[Biffer]

Agreed - Remember the context of the fertility rate in England and Wales of 1.65 and in Scotland it is even lower at 1.3! To sustain a UK population then the fertility rate needs to be at 2.1 babies per fertile woman so we are about 20-35% below where we need to be. So with lower birth rates and an increase in 65+ years olds from 1in5 to 1in4 over the next 30+ years then the only way we will sustain a working age population that we need to survive is by immigration. The debate isnt about stopping immigration but rather how do we ensure we get the working population we need, and can afford, in order to sustain our economy. Shutting the doors of UK is just plain economic suicide and denies the demographic facts already in place.

Alternatively we can develop a range of policies/measures to encourage folk to have more babies - affordable housing, better employment rights, higher wages, access to affordable childcare, cheaper and more accessible public transport, etc, get more young folk to work in dead end jobs paying below a proper living wage whilst encouraging older folk to continue working to 67 whilst waiting for their hospital appointments for their arthritis/joint replacements, diabetes, COPD and chronic heart disease. All of this is just too difficult for Governments to tackle seriously so ongoing immigration it is then!

The reality is that it is easier for Governments to ignore the figures and just wang on about immigration being bad whilst opening the back door to even higher levels of immigration. Brexit and getting rid of FoM has been a shotgun to both feet and has merely accelerated the immigration 'crisis'. Farage and his racist buddies are now foaming at the mouth as it was bad enough with the Germans, Polish, Ukrainian and French coming here to live and 'taking our jobs' but post Brexit they've been replaced with immigrants from India, Nigeria, Pakistan and China! Expect more riots once the warm weather arrives next year.

Can you point to any country, anywhere that has managed to increase its birth rate significantly through policy measures?

I don’t know the answer to this, but surely policy decisions can be made to get people already here, immigrants or not, to take the jobs that constantly seem to be needed to be filled by more immigrants

You don't kniw but it isn't a fault on your part - no country has ever managed to do this. People come up with ideas based on false assumptions that will work for 'other people'

[Paddington Bear]

Just read only 16% of non EU migrants were via work visas.

JFC.

Meanwhile it would be a ballache for me and my non-EU wife to return to the UK because the process is so lengthy and we have careers and a small child. Basically I would have to either leave them in Turkey for 6 months while I proved my income in the UK or sell my flat in Edinburgh in order to meet the cash requirements.

It's great that the system works for Deliveroo drivers and the non-working in huge numbers but not for educated professionals, isn't it?

It’s a great example of the British state full stop. Only those playing by the rules get stung. If you don’t fancy working and hate the western world we’re somewhat more lenient, for reasons that defeat me

[Paddington Bear]

Can you point to any country, anywhere that has managed to increase its birth rate significantly through policy measures?

I don’t know the answer to this, but surely policy decisions can be made to get people already here, immigrants or not, to take the jobs that constantly seem to be needed to be filled by more immigrants

You don't kniw but it isn't a fault on your part - no country has ever managed to do this. People come up with ideas based on false assumptions that will work for 'other people'

Surely the place to start though is:
1) if we are going to have immigration there is an onus on a) a majority of migrants working and b) working predominantly in higher paid jobs, and
2) what has changed in 15 years to plummet the British birthrate? Can we change the factors that have caused this?

Some on 2) are societal but the core of it is that until 2008 it was possible to have a half decent house and get by on 1/1.5 incomes in a way that is no longer true. This is changeable

[Biffer]

I don’t know the answer to this, but surely policy decisions can be made to get people already here, immigrants or not, to take the jobs that constantly seem to be needed to be filled by more immigrants

You don't kniw but it isn't a fault on your part - no country has ever managed to do this. People come up with ideas based on false assumptions that will work for 'other people'

Surely the place to start though is:
1) if we are going to have immigration there is an onus on a) a majority of migrants working and b) working predominantly in higher paid jobs, and
2) what has changed in 15 years to plummet the British birthrate? Can we change the factors that have caused this?

Some on 2) are societal but the core of it is that until 2008 it was possible to have a half decent house and get by on 1/1.5 incomes in a way that is no longer true. This is changeable

Is there any evidence for that assumption?

[sockwithaticket]

I don’t know the answer to this, but surely policy decisions can be made to get people already here, immigrants or not, to take the jobs that constantly seem to be needed to be filled by more immigrants

Not possible. Just before the Brexit vote I had an argument with my wife’s cousin, 2 kids in their mid twenties with degrees both sat on their arses doing nothing. He was voting leave cos migrants, I said if our kids were taking those jobs then we wouldn’t need migrants, to which of course he agreed. I then suggested his kids could get jobs as cleaners cos we’d never had white British cleaners at work (in 40 odd years) to which he obviously replied “why should they have to do that”

For the first half of the 20th century the clothing industry in the UK was kept alive by the Jews, for the second half it was Pakistanis, Indians, Bangladeshis, Cypriots. By the 21st century pretty much no second/third generation migrants were working in clothing factories so a lot of the jobs were taken up by EU migrants.

Now the industry is more or less extinct.

The biggest issue here is the end of FOM, EU migrants were much more likely to go home afterwards. So right wing populists properly fucked themselves over, their followers will ensure that the same thing keeps happening.

The kind of policies that some of you are talking about are generational if not multi generational, that does not align with 4-5yearly cycles in a system where politicians working together across party seems to mean shouting at each other.

Really interesting point about EU migrants returning home, hadn’t properly considered that before.

My example of a policy change would be in the care sector. My dad ended up in a care home for the last stages of Alzheimer’s. There was a constant flow of immigrants who were utterly professional and awesome people - we are still in touch with 2 of them - but without deviation the path was - shit pay, shit conditions in a care home - join the NHS as nurses - shit pay, shit conditions - husband/family arrived - drop out of work - new immigrants come to continue the cycle. All the time the care home group are posting massive profits and the directors are arriving once a month in Jags.

Fine the fuck out of them if they don’t provide pay and conditions that keep staff. Refuse to allow them access to visas if they can’t keep staff

There are something like 250,000 registered nurses in the U.K. not working in the NHS because pay and conditions are awful and they need to be constantly replaced because of this

See teaching also. Absolutely loads of qualified teachers of working age no longer in the profession, although this is an area where we're much, much less likely to try and use migrants to plug the gap.

[Paddington Bear]

You don't kniw but it isn't a fault on your part - no country has ever managed to do this. People come up with ideas based on false assumptions that will work for 'other people'

Surely the place to start though is:
1) if we are going to have immigration there is an onus on a) a majority of migrants working and b) working predominantly in higher paid jobs, and
2) what has changed in 15 years to plummet the British birthrate? Can we change the factors that have caused this?

Some on 2) are societal but the core of it is that until 2008 it was possible to have a half decent house and get by on 1/1.5 incomes in a way that is no longer true. This is changeable

Is there any evidence for that assumption?

Very hard to prove negatives but either something in the water changed in 2008 or as ever recessions were bad for birthrates, and if you’re of childbearing age you have essentially lived your working life in recession conditions

[tabascoboy]

Declining birthrate is not just an issue for the UK but large parts of the world and projected to decline further in the next decades. Granted that we have to look for our own solutions of course

[Biffer]

Surely the place to start though is:
1) if we are going to have immigration there is an onus on a) a majority of migrants working and b) working predominantly in higher paid jobs, and
2) what has changed in 15 years to plummet the British birthrate? Can we change the factors that have caused this?

Some on 2) are societal but the core of it is that until 2008 it was possible to have a half decent house and get by on 1/1.5 incomes in a way that is no longer true. This is changeable

Is there any evidence for that assumption?

Very hard to prove negatives but either something in the water changed in 2008 or as ever recessions were bad for birthrates, and if you’re of childbearing age you have essentially lived your working life in recession conditions

There are huge problems with the way we look at fertility and reproduction across society. For example, We have no numbers or research on male fertility - no idea how many children per man. it takes to people to make a child but half of them are pretty much ignored in terms of policy. The ‘well, it must be economic’ default that so many people instantly come out with is just a simple assumption based on correlation not causation. What about other things like women’s career considerations, broader societal situation or things like that? Once again the desire to focus on a simple cause is likely to make any action taken on it ineffective. That and the overwhelming evidence across multiple cultures and societies that the main factor which reduces birth rates is education of young women.

[inactionman]

Declining birthrate is not just an issue for the UK but large parts of the world and projected to decline further in the next decades. Granted that we have to look for our own solutions of course

Isn't this - all told - a good thing?

[Paddington Bear]

Declining birthrate is not just an issue for the UK but large parts of the world and projected to decline further in the next decades. Granted that we have to look for our own solutions of course

Britain has tended to trend above much of the rest of developed Europe for reasons that aren’t fully explained. One interesting element in our domestic context is that once a British woman decides to have children, she tends to have as many as previous generations. The challenge is convincing women to have children in the first place, which is why I think sorting housing is an obvious first step

[tabascoboy]

Declining birthrate is not just an issue for the UK but large parts of the world and projected to decline further in the next decades. Granted that we have to look for our own solutions of course

Britain has tended to trend above much of the rest of developed Europe for reasons that aren’t fully explained. One interesting element in our domestic context is that once a British woman decides to have children, she tends to have as many as previous generations. The challenge is convincing women to have children in the first place, which is why I think sorting housing is an obvious first step

Well, for a start we can't overlook the expense of childcare when both parents need to be in full time work. But we not only have to examine deferred childbirth but understand that couples decide not to have children for many reasons, not the least of which are pessimism about the global future and "lifestyle choice".

[inactionman]

Is there any evidence for that assumption?

Very hard to prove negatives but either something in the water changed in 2008 or as ever recessions were bad for birthrates, and if you’re of childbearing age you have essentially lived your working life in recession conditions

There are huge problems with the way we look at fertility and reproduction across society. For example, We have no numbers or research on male fertility - no idea how many children per man. it takes to people to make a child but half of them are pretty much ignored in terms of policy. The ‘well, it must be economic’ default that so many people instantly come out with is just a simple assumption based on correlation not causation. What about other things like women’s career considerations, broader societal situation or things like that? Once again the desire to focus on a simple cause is likely to make any action taken on it ineffective. That and the overwhelming evidence across multiple cultures and societies that the main factor which reduces birth rates is education of young women.

I've casually - and no doubt erroneously - noted the decrease in birth rates when the catholic church has had a reduced say in people's lives. You could make the case this is a feature of education of young women, particularly in terms of their bodily autonomy, societal autonomy and use of contraception.

You could also make the case that my evidence is anecdotal and will conflate causation and correlation - I've no objective evidence to confirm any of this.

I come from a colossal Irish family and none of my Irish relatives have anything close to the number of offspring my grandparents had - this is also true for my wife's family. Although other factors exist, we are all notably less devout -that is the one main thing we all have in common.

[Paddington Bear]

Declining birthrate is not just an issue for the UK but large parts of the world and projected to decline further in the next decades. Granted that we have to look for our own solutions of course

Britain has tended to trend above much of the rest of developed Europe for reasons that aren’t fully explained. One interesting element in our domestic context is that once a British woman decides to have children, she tends to have as many as previous generations. The challenge is convincing women to have children in the first place, which is why I think sorting housing is an obvious first step

Well, for a start we can't overlook the expense of childcare when both parents need to be in full time work. But we not only have to examine deferred childbirth but understand that couples decide not to have children for many reasons, not the least of which are pessimism about the global future and "lifestyle choice".

100%. There are reasonably quick if imperfect fixes on childcare - increasing the ratio of adults to children. Seems to work fine in a lot of comparable countries.

Not having children due to pessimism is I think a ‘high status’ belief, i.e. it is far more common among the types who write newspaper columns or are friends with the people that do. I’m not saying you don’t see it in the wild but I don’t think it is statistically significant. It also doesn’t really matter - some people have always not wanted kids, and that’s fine.

Lifestyle choice more so, but again I think this more than cancelled out by people who would make alternative choices if they felt able to; i.e. if they felt they could afford to.

I’m of the age where this is a common conversation and whilst I appreciate anecdotes aren’t data, I’d say that those who actively don’t want kids are very much in the minority, but those who would like them but are fatalistic about their chances are a disturbingly high number.

[epwc]

If I was 30 years younger I’d be thinking very carefully about whether to have kids but primarily on the basis of climate change and our inability to make the necessary changes

[sockwithaticket]

Is there any evidence for that assumption?

Very hard to prove negatives but either something in the water changed in 2008 or as ever recessions were bad for birthrates, and if you’re of childbearing age you have essentially lived your working life in recession conditions

There are huge problems with the way we look at fertility and reproduction across society. For example, We have no numbers or research on male fertility - no idea how many children per man. it takes to people to make a child but half of them are pretty much ignored in terms of policy. The ‘well, it must be economic’ default that so many people instantly come out with is just a simple assumption based on correlation not causation. What about other things like women’s career considerations, broader societal situation or things like that? Once again the desire to focus on a simple cause is likely to make any action taken on it ineffective. That and the overwhelming evidence across multiple cultures and societies that the main factor which reduces birth rates is education of young women.

I've increasingly picked up on a few bits and pieces about male fertility, it does seem to be entering the public discourse.

One of the interesting ones is that men also have a biological clock of sorts. While there's no menopause hard cut off equivalent for us, the quality of sperm and general reproductive health are known to fall off after 40 and the likelihood of the pregnancy having issues increases as does the chance of the child having some. The right are often up in arms about the alleged explosion of disorders that kids today have and they may have a point that we can't attribute it all to better detection. Whee they're wrong is that it's likely a genuine increase. There's emerging evidence that rate of behavioural and psychiatric disorders correlates with an increased age of the father. The average age of fathers is trending upward along with that of mothers and men will often be older than their reproductive partner.

General health is also a factor. We are, at a population level, becoming increasingly less healthy in all manner of ways and that will be having its impact on fertility. Whether that's spiralling rates of being overweight and obese or the micro-plastics and PFAs infesting us all.

[dpedin]

Can you point to any country, anywhere that has managed to increase its birth rate significantly through policy measures?

I don’t know the answer to this, but surely policy decisions can be made to get people already here, immigrants or not, to take the jobs that constantly seem to be needed to be filled by more immigrants

You don't kniw but it isn't a fault on your part - no country has ever managed to do this. People come up with ideas based on false assumptions that will work for 'other people'

It's why I suggested it is easier for Govs to resort to increased immigration rather than tackle the wide range of issues that have driven the fertility rate downwars. Theoretically it is possible but Gov would need a whole suite of major policy changes that would take some time to implement in order to shift the fertility rate upwards, a generational shift. However it would seem eminently sensible to start taking serious steps to make having children a more financially feasible option for many couples to have children and nurture them in a positive and supportive environment. If we don't then .....

[Biffer]

I don’t know the answer to this, but surely policy decisions can be made to get people already here, immigrants or not, to take the jobs that constantly seem to be needed to be filled by more immigrants

You don't kniw but it isn't a fault on your part - no country has ever managed to do this. People come up with ideas based on false assumptions that will work for 'other people'

It's why I suggested it is easier for Govs to resort to increased immigration rather than tackle the wide range of issues that have driven the fertility rate downwars. Theoretically it is possible but Gov would need a whole suite of major policy changes that would take some time to implement in order to shift the fertility rate upwards, a generational shift. However it would seem eminently sensible to start taking serious steps to make having children a more financially feasible option for many couples to have children and nurture them in a positive and supportive environment. If we don't then .....

But you're making some inherent assumptions in there. Is financial situation going to make a difference? Or enough of a difference? This is a long term trend for all societies and the usual stuff around tax breaks etc has never worked, anywhere.

[dpedin]

You don't kniw but it isn't a fault on your part - no country has ever managed to do this. People come up with ideas based on false assumptions that will work for 'other people'

It's why I suggested it is easier for Govs to resort to increased immigration rather than tackle the wide range of issues that have driven the fertility rate downwars. Theoretically it is possible but Gov would need a whole suite of major policy changes that would take some time to implement in order to shift the fertility rate upwards, a generational shift. However it would seem eminently sensible to start taking serious steps to make having children a more financially feasible option for many couples to have children and nurture them in a positive and supportive environment. If we don't then .....

But you're making some inherent assumptions in there. Is financial situation going to make a difference? Or enough of a difference? This is a long term trend for all societies and the usual stuff around tax breaks etc has never worked, anywhere.

Financial considerations associated with careers/employment and affordable housing are big factors for some wanting but not having children. There is research to suggest these factors might delay when people have children or how many they eventually have but as you rightly say these are only a few of many factors at play here which is why I suggest a whole range of major policies over a generational shift is required to at least stabilize fertility rates let alone reverse the trend.

[Biffer]

It's why I suggested it is easier for Govs to resort to increased immigration rather than tackle the wide range of issues that have driven the fertility rate downwars. Theoretically it is possible but Gov would need a whole suite of major policy changes that would take some time to implement in order to shift the fertility rate upwards, a generational shift. However it would seem eminently sensible to start taking serious steps to make having children a more financially feasible option for many couples to have children and nurture them in a positive and supportive environment. If we don't then .....

But you're making some inherent assumptions in there. Is financial situation going to make a difference? Or enough of a difference? This is a long term trend for all societies and the usual stuff around tax breaks etc has never worked, anywhere.

Financial considerations associated with careers/employment and affordable housing are big factors for some wanting but not having children. There is research to suggest these factors might delay when people have children or how many they eventually have but as you rightly say these are only a few of many factors at play here which is why I suggest a whole range of major policies over a generational shift is required to at least stabilize fertility rates let alone reverse the trend.

Yeah, but Singapore tried this and it didn't really work

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fan ... -rates-tan

A place where there seems to have been a bit of success though is in Sweden. Their birth rate is 1.9. Alongside other measures they have a significant focus on shared parental leave. That's a significant difference between Sweden and Singapore in terms of policy. This is why I raised the point of male fertility earlier - a key issue is impacts on women's careers. If we renormalise society to expect both parents to take significant amounts of leave on the birth of a child it will help to remove this factor. We have to stop the discriminatory effect of childbirth - it sets back a woman's career but has no effect on a man's. State provision of childcare is a big one too. These things are damn expensive though, so in this country there would only be howling from the regular fuckwits in the rw press.

[epwc]

If we renormalise society to expect both parents to take significant amounts of leave on the birth of a child it will help to remove this factor. We have to stop the discriminatory effect of childbirth - it sets back a woman's career but has no effect on a man's. State provision of childcare is a big one too. These things are damn expensive though, so in this country there would only be howling from the regular fuckwits in the rw press.

So we need migrants then? But PBs worried about resources, he and Slick are both worried about changing demographics, what to do?
Meanwhile no one wants their kids to do shit jobs, even if it was for decent money.

I agree with PB that the current situation could well see a huge swing to Reform at the next GE but that will answer none of the underlying problems. But as the previous government proved (and our Kemi has restated) you don't need to do a thing, you just need to say you're doing it, just like Trump and his magical wall that Mexico was going to pay for.

And no one gives a shit about climate change which will very soon be the biggest driver of migration.

There is no simple answer to this, and certainly not one that will make a meaningful difference in the current political landscape

[Sandstorm]

Meanwhile no one wants their kids to do shit jobs......

[epwc]

Metal Mickeys my favourite robot

[Slick]

If we renormalise society to expect both parents to take significant amounts of leave on the birth of a child it will help to remove this factor. We have to stop the discriminatory effect of childbirth - it sets back a woman's career but has no effect on a man's. State provision of childcare is a big one too. These things are damn expensive though, so in this country there would only be howling from the regular fuckwits in the rw press.

So we need migrants then? But PBs worried about resources, he and Slick are both worried about changing demographics, what to do?
Meanwhile no one wants their kids to do shit jobs, even if it was for decent money.

I agree with PB that the current situation could well see a huge swing to Reform at the next GE but that will answer none of the underlying problems. But as the previous government proved (and our Kemi has restated) you don't need to do a thing, you just need to say you're doing it, just like Trump and his magical wall that Mexico was going to pay for.

And no one gives a shit about climate change which will very soon be the biggest driver of migration.

There is no simple answer to this, and certainly not one that will make a meaningful difference in the current political landscape

Do you have any opinions or possible solutions?

What are the shit jobs, even on good pay, you are talking about?

[epwc]

Opinions? Fucking millions.

Solutions? Some of them too but nothing that is going to happen

Busy weekend we’re running some charity events but if I get the time will put something rogether

[fishfoodie]

There is no simple answer to this, and certainly not one that will make a meaningful difference in the current political landscape

Well there kinda is, but getting people to get their heads around it is the problem.

The UK is canary in the coal mine when it comes to the Demographic cliff.

You've an older population, with a declining birthrate, you've a pretty generous social welfare system, & thanks to the GFC & Brexit, you've fucked your economy......

If you don't find a way to get your economy growing, then taxes to the Government that support all those systems that an older demographic rely on will collapse, & then it all goes titsup.com

For decades it's been using immigrants as low wage workers, so that internally costs stayed low, & companies could maximize profits, while not squeezing customers too tight; but now Brexit has cut off a lot of the low cost workers, for example in agriculture, & now that brake on rising costs is gone, & not only that, but the taxes from the businesses that relied on them have evaporated, & there's an empty place on supermarket shelves.

In the same way; in the NHS there were 100k empty positions before the UK cut itself off from it's obvious source of those employees; & has anything useful happened to fill those jobs ? I'm going to guess that if anything, the situation is worse; because the NHS is now trying to recruit from further away, with more conditions, & for lower wages; so the UK is now less attractive than say Ireland, & so the jobs take longer to fill, & if they do recruit, the wages paid by the recruit are lower.

How is any of this helping a UK teenager who wants to work in agriculture of nursing ?

[epwc]

I agree with most of what you say but there are layers of complexity beyond that

[Sandstorm]

I agree with most of what you say but there are layers of complexity beyond that

You sound like a politician. His list of headline issues is exactly what’s wrong with UK and why it’s sliding down the shitter.

[sockwithaticket]

There is no simple answer to this, and certainly not one that will make a meaningful difference in the current political landscape

In the same way; in the NHS there were 100k empty positions before the UK cut itself off from it's obvious source of those employees; & has anything useful happened to fill those jobs ? I'm going to guess that if anything, the situation is worse; because the NHS is now trying to recruit from further away, with more conditions, & for lower wages; so the UK is now less attractive than say Ireland, & so the jobs take longer to fill, & if they do recruit, the wages paid by the recruit are lower.

How is any of this helping a UK teenager who wants to work in agriculture of nursing ?

We've gotten ourselves into a real pickle with domestic medical staff. We have thousands upon thousands of qualified domestic applicants turned away from doctoring and nursing because of the limited number of training places. Even if we wanted to we can't really open them up at this point because we lack sufficient staff to teach and train them without pulling them away from front line care.

And of course, as pointed out up thread by Slick, we also have thousands upon thousands of qualified nurses who are no longer in the profession due to pay and conditions who likely can't be tempted back. Fishing for migrant nurses to fill the roles is a sticking plaster solution to why the job is fundamentally unattractive for so many who've opted for it, in addition to being morally murky by brain draining less developed nations.

[dpedin]

There is no simple answer to this, and certainly not one that will make a meaningful difference in the current political landscape

In the same way; in the NHS there were 100k empty positions before the UK cut itself off from it's obvious source of those employees; & has anything useful happened to fill those jobs ? I'm going to guess that if anything, the situation is worse; because the NHS is now trying to recruit from further away, with more conditions, & for lower wages; so the UK is now less attractive than say Ireland, & so the jobs take longer to fill, & if they do recruit, the wages paid by the recruit are lower.

How is any of this helping a UK teenager who wants to work in agriculture of nursing ?

We've gotten ourselves into a real pickle with domestic medical staff. We have thousands upon thousands of qualified domestic applicants turned away from doctoring and nursing because of the limited number of training places. Even if we wanted to we can't really open them up at this point because we lack sufficient staff to teach and train them without pulling them away from front line care.

And of course, as pointed out up thread by Slick, we also have thousands upon thousands of qualified nurses who are no longer in the profession due to pay and conditions who likely can't be tempted back. Fishing for migrant nurses to fill the roles is a sticking plaster solution to why the job is fundamentally unattractive for so many who've opted for it, in addition to being morally murky by brain draining less developed nations.

The last Gov completely fucked up the training pipeline for medical staff! They fucked up the push element - increased undergraduate places at medical schools in a panic, funded most but not all the required Foundation places and then realised that they couldn't increase the core/specialty training places by as much as they thought because of what epwc says - they require supervision, training and support by the very same staff being asked to work weekends etc to tackle waiting times who have less support from trainees as they were leaving for foreign lands. Oh ... and Specialty trainees cost a lot more money which wasn't budgeted for. The training pipeline is only as big as its narrowest point and the Gov failed miserably in recognizing this - probably because they knew they would be out of power by the time it hit the fan. The same argument applies for nursing and for more specialist nursing roles. Given medics take a minimum of 4 years undergraduate training plus another 5 years for a GP and 7 years for a consultant, and in many cases it is much more than this, the last 14 years has been a shitshow of medical workforce planning! The pull factors have also been completely fucked up - by putting below inflation increases that didn't take account of growing demand into the NHS the money just isnt there to pay decent salaries or enough of them to retain key clinical staff. Employers end up looking for cheap and fast solutions - recruit trained staff from abroad, recruit PAs and then abuse them or didn't provide the full range of services ie do the knee/hip replacement but dont give the physio or rehab required.

The new gov has begun to sort out the shit show of pay and conditions but the training issues is a far bigger problem and it will take some years and a lot of money to sort out, and it needs to be sorted out whether we have a NHS or not.

[epwc]

I agree with most of what you say but there are layers of complexity beyond that

You sound like a politician. His list of headline issues is exactly what’s wrong with UK and why it’s sliding down the shitter.

Me a politician? I don’t think anyone that knows me would describe me in that way.

There are huge complexities in both what got us here and how we got out

I will respond properly as soon as I get the time but right now I’m oiling more chopping boards because the ones I made for all 4 sessions have pretty much all gone at the first one