NPR

Blake wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 6:42 pm I don’t think Ramaphosa wants door #2, but it will possibly be the least “painful” option for him politically.

Partnering with the DA will cost what remains of the ANC too many votes that will go directly to MK.

And MK will demand Ramaphosa’s head as the first condition of any coalition.

So I think EFF and PA is most likely. The EFF is weakened and on the back foot. They will not be in a strong bargaining position and Malema and Ramaphosa will see the Zulu threat for both their parties and need to take action. PA will be hangers-on and get something to enrich themselves in the process.

Very bad for SA in the short term. Nothing will get fixed and the markets will punish the decision, but it’s part of the growing pains we have to go through unfortunately.

Monk wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 11:04 am i believe they will go with the DA. The economic benefits are immediate and should translate to citizens being less stressed.

The other option has them involved in personality politics and they simply don't have the personalities.

Monk wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 11:04 am i believe they will go with the DA. The economic benefits are immediate and should translate to citizens being less stressed.

The other option has them involved in personality politics and they simply don't have the personalities.

_Os_ wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 7:41 pm I have stumbled across an old friend whilst following the most complicated period in the politics of post-94 SA. I have discovered Rubber Stamp's Twitter account.

20k Tweets since November 2022, 115 followers. It's quite mad. Seems to be on the MK train and supporting Russia, but it's hard to tell. He always was a JZ fan.

assfly wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 5:53 am What a bonkers few days. I spent the best part of Sunday reading newspapers about the results, and I still can't get my head around it.

I really hope it's a DA ANC coalition, surely they must know it's the best option for them. Surely!

Blake wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 6:29 am

assfly wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 5:53 am What a bonkers few days. I spent the best part of Sunday reading newspapers about the results, and I still can't get my head around it.

I really hope it's a DA ANC coalition, surely they must know it's the best option for them. Surely!

One has to wonder how aggressive the DAs terms are going to be and the ANC will be willing to stomach them…

Unfortunately my gut feeling is that they won’t and are going to gamble with the EFF.

LoveOfTheGame wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 7:36 am

Blake wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 6:29 am

assfly wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 5:53 am What a bonkers few days. I spent the best part of Sunday reading newspapers about the results, and I still can't get my head around it.

I really hope it's a DA ANC coalition, surely they must know it's the best option for them. Surely!

One has to wonder how aggressive the DAs terms are going to be and the ANC will be willing to stomach them…

Unfortunately my gut feeling is that they won’t and are going to gamble with the EFF.

I'm afraid you are spot on Blakey. How does it work though, even combined the ANC and EFF won't have enough to get over the 50% mark? I take it another smaller party will also join the coalition? An ANC/EFF coalition probably means I need to seriously consider me and my family's future in this country. Pretty grim prospects for everybody concerned.

average joe wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:00 am It's not possible for the DA to go into an official coalition with the ANC. The DA's policies are the polar opposite of the ANC's. They will bicker and fight over everything and nothing will get done. The NHI will be the first major point of contention and will probably break any coalition between the two.

average joe wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:00 am The EFF wants Ramaphosa out, Malema as the vice president and Shivambu as the minister of finance. The reserve bank will become the next VSB.

bok_viking wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 9:57 am For me if it ends up with an ANC/EFF coalition I think my return to SA will be short lived. I will head back to Asia or maybe Costa Rica. That coalition will be disastrous and I can see our economy finally collapsing in a Zimbabwe fashion under that coalition. The EFF will definitely want to have the permission to take farms/property/businesses any way they can as part of the agreement to join such a coalition apart from Malema being made Vice president. Not to mention that the EFF likes Soviet era economic practices. The EFF is just the back version of the AWB.

average joe wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:00 am The EFF wants Ramaphosa out, Malema as the vice president...

RYAN COETZEE: Parties in centrist coalition will have to swallow policies they detest
International experience worth taking into account if ANC and DA agree to share power
03 JUNE 2024 - 05:00
by RYAN COETZEE

Thirty years from the dawn of democracy, SA finds itself facing an existential choice once more. One path leads to disaster. The other might — just might — provide the country with the Better Life for All it voted for three decades ago.

That we face a choice at all is cause for hope. So accustomed are we to expecting the worst that we fail, sometimes, to celebrate the best.

Consider this: after 30 years, the ANC has lost its majority and responded maturely. Yes, it is surprised — indeed shocked — but it has accepted the results without hesitation. From the military we have not heard a peep. There are no protests on the streets.

Meanwhile, having positioned itself as the ANC’s most intractable opposition for three decades, the DA has responded to the new reality with openness and pragmatism, declaring its willingness to consider a future in which it and others share power with the ANC. Things could be very much worse.

But before discussions with the DA and other constitutionalists can begin in earnest, the ANC must choose to reject a future that involves the EFF and MK.


The choice is existential, for itself and the country. And it is a choice only the national executive committee (NEC) can make. While it deliberates, SA waits, and hopes.

It is critical to understand just how existential the moment is. What the EFF plans to do with SA is well known: it has a populist agenda that will destroy the economy. MK, by contrast, has behaved with all the hallmarks of a party inspired by Vladimir Putin or as Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla put it in a tweet, “President Putin, ♥ ♥ ♥”. When asked what MK’s plan for the country was, she said, “The same kind of government that we had under president Zuma — those nine amazing years. Very similar.” Or put another way: a country run by kleptocratic ethnic chauvinists. A disaster for everyone except those with access to public money.

For the DA, the conundrum is different but equally existential: on the one hand, it feels it cannot stand by and watch as SA slides ever deeper into poverty, unemployment, crime and corruption. And it would indeed be a gross betrayal of its own supporters to campaign to “Rescue SA” and then, when given a chance to do so, turn tail and run.

Plausible deniability

On the other hand, entering a power-sharing arrangement with the ANC is fraught with risk. Will it be lashing itself to an organisation that can’t — or won’t — do what it takes to turn SA around, and thus expose itself to electoral devastation at the hands of those who keep their distance, but with nothing to show for it? What it will seek to do is find a way to protect SA from MK and the EFF while protecting itself from an electoral savaging. It won’t be easy. But it must try.

There is more than one way to proceed for the DA. It could stay out of government while offering parliamentary support for Cyril Ramaphosa as president and voting his government a budget, in exchange for specific policy concessions. Whether this approach would be acceptable to the ANC is unknown, and whether it would give the DA the plausible deniability it seeks if things go badly is doubtful. But it is an option.

Another is a full coalition, in which the DA and some other opposition parties take seats in the cabinet and agree a foundational policy agenda with the ANC. It would mean taking responsibility for the performance of at least some parts of government, and given the circumstances it might be extremely difficult to succeed. But it, too, is an option.

Whatever transpires, if the DA and the ANC do find themselves in a power-sharing arrangement, there is international experience worth taking into account.

I took up a post as director of strategy to the UK’s deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, in October 2012. Clegg had led the Liberal Democrats into government in 2010 as the smaller partner in a coalition with Britain’s Conservatives. He had learnt a lot about the challenges of coalition government by the time I arrived, and I quickly caught up. Of course, SA is not Britain, and the protagonists are nothing like each other, despite some superficial similarities, but the dynamics of sharing power are in many respects the same.

Red lines

Power-sharing is hard. It requires more skill, effort and resilience than single-party governments, and not just for leaders and their parties. It demands a lot of citizens too. Certainly, it’s hard not getting everything you want. Much more painfully, it also requires parties and their supporters to accept policies they deeply detest. If they are not prepared to, they will either “red line” themselves out of sharing power before it even begins, or the agreement they reach will disintegrate in acrimony.

Some lines are indeed red, and cannot be crossed. There is no point making an agreement that cannot deliver a positive outcome for the country. But party leaders should be honest with their troops, many of whom will be asked to do something very difficult: learn to work with the enemy.

Success depends largely on ensuring the public has adequate sight of the give and take that goes on behind the scenes. Party supporters will only accept the things that feel like betrayal if they experience the things that feel like triumph. And some will never accept any of it at all. Leading in this environment requires exceptional communication skills and an acceptance on both sides of government that the other party has a constituency it needs to take along. If there is a coalition, both Ramaphosa and leader of the opposition, John Steenhuisen, will have their work cut out.

So, can SA be governed from the centre by parties that represent a majority of black, white, coloured and Indian South Africans, or will the forces of racial and ethnic nationalism always win out in the end?

Can the dream of 1994 and the constitutional dispensation that underpins it become a sustainable reality for South Africans, or are we destined always to compete as groups in a zero-sum game that no-one ever wins? Perhaps the next two weeks will give us an answer.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opini ... ey-detest/

_Os_ wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 11:10 am

bok_viking wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 9:57 am For me if it ends up with an ANC/EFF coalition I think my return to SA will be short lived. I will head back to Asia or maybe Costa Rica. That coalition will be disastrous and I can see our economy finally collapsing in a Zimbabwe fashion under that coalition. The EFF will definitely want to have the permission to take farms/property/businesses any way they can as part of the agreement to join such a coalition apart from Malema being made Vice president. Not to mention that the EFF likes Soviet era economic practices. The EFF is just the back version of the AWB.

Open question how long any version of ANC-EFF-MK could survive. It's not a minor thing that they're directly competing for the same voters and will seek to outbid eachother. We're not talking about people with excellent career prospects, we're talking about people who when the EFf and MK take their seats have a family they can no longer support because there's no income.

The ANC is in this situation because they failed, the economic performance of SA is well below potential. The ANC know it too, years ago people wondered if they would try to fight their way out of losing an election, as in a military coup. They graciously accepted their fate (I always thought that route was more likely).

If a version of ANC-EFF-MK happens and the outbidding starts. The economy is going to be hit hard by the markets. At that point many in the ANC will say "we're in this situation because we failed on the economy, now the economy is really fucked, the DA offered us a better deal than this". As soon as ANC-EFF-MK hits a bump in the road, there'll be people in the ANC demanding an ANC-DA deal.

Another is a full coalition, in which the DA and some other opposition parties

Of course, SA is not Britain, and the protagonists are nothing like each other, despite some superficial similarities

Blake wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 11:38 am It will be interesting to see if there are any high profile defectors from the ANC to MK in the coming weeks. The ANC has lost so many seats, and are so broke, that those that were at the bottom of the lists will not be able to sustain their lifestyles.

The MK meanwhile has no experience, and probably have more seats than they have qualified people to fill them. It will be interesting to see which of the rats are going to jump.

_Os_ wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 12:10 pm Stone cold facts like KZN is the most anti-ANC province now, more than the WC ... have not sunk in. Some interviews with random guys speaking isiZulu on a taxi rank in Durban are pretty much saying that. Then the analysts back in the studio ignore what they're saying.

Blake wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 1:16 pm

_Os_ wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 12:10 pm Stone cold facts like KZN is the most anti-ANC province now, more than the WC ... have not sunk in. Some interviews with random guys speaking isiZulu on a taxi rank in Durban are pretty much saying that. Then the analysts back in the studio ignore what they're saying.

Things have pretty much reset back to 1994 in a sense:


The parties have changed names, or fractured, but:
ANC still very strong in Limpopo and Eastern Cape, solid in Freestate and North West, and just holding on in the Northern Cape.
All the Zulu voters that Zuma brought to the ANC have followed him away, bit didn't go back to the IFP. And the ANC lost a bunch of others as well.
Western Cape votes went from NP to DA.

Gauteng is the big mover where the ANC's 57% in 1994 has eroded to 34.5%...which has mostly gone to EFF and MK.

So ja, 30 years later and not much has really changed. The ANC has just splintered into 3 factions. Quite depressing actually.

bok_viking wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 1:58 pm The problem for the DA is that many black voters still see them as a pro-white party that is only interested in what is good for the white people of SA. You just have to look at all the comments on the internet related to a possible coalition between the ANC and DA and you can see that a lot of people think if it happens, the ANC will sell out the country to white domination. Unfortunately people like Steenhuisen are not that good in eroding those fears in the way they bring their message across. They also seem to think that the DA will sell out to the USA and Israel (the oppressors) if they get more power.

_Os_ wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 2:30 pm The racists are crying because they genuinely think the EFF or MK or whoever else are automatically entitled to be larger than the DA, because in their minds the DA is white and should be small and defeated. They also cannot get their heads around the idea that there could be a government of SA that isn't 100% African nationalist. It actually enrages them.

_Os_ wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 2:06 pm That's some terrible analysis there Blakey!

It's a very different set of voters now compared to 1994. People die and young people start voting. Because of voter apathy it's much harder to get votes now than in '94, everyone able voted back then, it's still the biggest turnout despite the population being smaller then.

NP back in '94: NP had the white voters other than the 420k who voted FF and the 340k who voted DP, about half the coloured voters, no Indian voters, no black voters. It was also the fucking NP, sending them into the dustbin was something white and coloured voters should get some credit for.

DA in 2024: The coalition of voters backing the DA is much larger than the one which backed the NP in '94, despite the percentage of the vote and some of the geography being similar. DA support is split roughly into thirds white/coloured/black, with Indians in there too. Some apathy among white/coloured/Indian voters is hidden by the DA's growth among black voters. Far more black people voted DA than the parties trying to be a "black DA" put together (Rise, BOSA, ASA, UIM). 1999 was the breakthrough elections, DA voters deserve some credit for sticking with it through a quarter of a century of voting without a hope of being in government. That's next level stubborn. In a lot of countries those voters give up well before now and the country ends up worse off.

ANC back in '94: People actually believed in them. The only people who didn't voted FF or DP.

ANC in 2024: No one believes in them now, even the ANC itself seems tired of it all. 2 million less people are voting ANC-EFF-MK than voted ANC alone in '94. Basically no way they can avoid shedding more voters whatever they do, smaller more narrow coalition of voters than in '94.

_Os_ wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 6:59 pm

Johnson is worth a listen here don't always agree with him but this all sounds correct, a lot of the points he makes I've made on the thread. If you're from KZN and interested in politics a lot of this stuff isn't hard to see. Johnson is from the UK but moved to Durban when he was young, oddly he was a childhood friend of JZ (can't recall the circumstances, something like JZ's mother was a domestic for Johnson's mother), he can basically rock up at Nkandla and have lunch with JZ if he wants.

Sards wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 8:49 am There is some movement in the markets. Just a trickle but I expect it to start opening up. With the Western Cape secured there is more optimistic investment.

In my industry the Hospitality industry there have been a lot of restaurants, convention venues and hotels going into auction.

assfly wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 6:06 am

Sards wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 8:49 am There is some movement in the markets. Just a trickle but I expect it to start opening up. With the Western Cape secured there is more optimistic investment.

In my industry the Hospitality industry there have been a lot of restaurants, convention venues and hotels going into auction.

At this rate, there could be quite an influx of people moving to the Western Cap.