NPR

Biffer wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:00 pm

fishfoodie wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 8:48 pm

Biffer wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 8:02 pm Liquid water found on Mars.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxl849j77ko

A worthwhile society would now examine this in a careful way to look for any form of microbial life in there. But we're more likely to scream EXPLOIT EXPLOIT EXPLOIT and thereby fuck up whatever ecosystem exists. Probably Musk, the cunt, will pledge to be first there.

Mars has one advantage ......................................................................................... distance !

Space Karen can flap his lips all he wants, but he still has to deal with the mathematics of reality, that doesn't pay a blind bit of attention to the bullshit he endlessly spouts.

He can't land an spacecraft on the martian surface, & if he could, he couldn't get any equipment off the ship, & if he could, he couldn't get a gram of weight back off the surface.

He's a joke !

The problem is that he's a joke that somehow still gets taken seriously by people who should know he's a joke, & should therefore not get a single penny of Government subsidy

Starship is designed for lunar and Mars transport, it can lift more than anything previously made. So getting there will be within uis capability.

Landing on Mars though, as you say, really fucking difficult. It's the most difficult place to land in the solar system. I'm genuinely expecting him to kill people doing that.

Sandstorm wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:13 pm Landing on Mars is harder than Jupiter? Or Venus?

Guy Smiley wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:18 pm

Sandstorm wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:13 pm Landing on Mars is harder than Jupiter? Or Venus?

Fuck yeah. It's the traffic.

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:08 am First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:25 am

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:08 am First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

I'm really starting to get excited by this.

We're the only sovereign nation to have voluntarily given up our space programme - arguably sensibly at the time, given the required funding and the ability to go into cahoots through Europe- so I wasn't expecting any steps back towards it prior to the announcements about Shetland and Cornwall. I've lost track a bit of where things sit with these, so this is very welcome news.

I've visited the old launch sites down on Isle of Wight, it's quite sad they haven't really made the most of it - although it was only the testing site for Saunders-Roe, with the actual payload-bearing rockets being launched from Australia, it would still make an outstanding museum. They 've got a few exhibits there, but it's mainly about the battery. I last went a decade ago and you could walk beside the launch pads but there wasn't anything of any note to bring it to life. A real shame.

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:25 am

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:08 am First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

I'm really starting to get excited by this.

We're the only sovereign nation to have voluntarily given up our space programme - arguably sensibly at the time, given the required funding and the ability to go into cahoots through Europe- so I wasn't expecting any steps back towards it prior to the announcements about Shetland and Cornwall. I've lost track a bit of where things sit with these, so this is very welcome news.

I've visited the old launch sites down on Isle of Wight, it's quite sad they haven't really made the most of it - although it was only the testing site for Saunders-Roe, with the actual payload-bearing rockets being launched from Australia, it would still make an outstanding museum. They 've got a few exhibits there, but it's mainly about the battery. I last went a decade ago and you could walk beside the launch pads but there wasn't anything of any note to bring it to life. A real shame.

fishfoodie wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 12:01 pm

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:25 am

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:08 am First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

I'm really starting to get excited by this.

We're the only sovereign nation to have voluntarily given up our space programme - arguably sensibly at the time, given the required funding and the ability to go into cahoots through Europe- so I wasn't expecting any steps back towards it prior to the announcements about Shetland and Cornwall. I've lost track a bit of where things sit with these, so this is very welcome news.

I've visited the old launch sites down on Isle of Wight, it's quite sad they haven't really made the most of it - although it was only the testing site for Saunders-Roe, with the actual payload-bearing rockets being launched from Australia, it would still make an outstanding museum. They 've got a few exhibits there, but it's mainly about the battery. I last went a decade ago and you could walk beside the launch pads but there wasn't anything of any note to bring it to life. A real shame.

Don't forget Spadeadam !, the Irish contribution to the UKs space program

It was the coolest location with that massive test stand for engine tests, & it's a pity the RAF held onto it, as it would definitely be useful with all the infrastructure & buildings for tests

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:08 am First company granted a vertical launch license in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gzl9dz5rdo

The launch site has secured all its licensing, this is now the rocket builder getting license for their vehicle.

Should have the first launch from Shetland later this year

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 3:18 pm We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 3:18 pm We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 3:18 pm We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 8:00 pm

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 3:18 pm We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

Raggs wrote: Sat Feb 08, 2025 4:32 pm

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 8:00 pm

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 3:18 pm We're all screwed



If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

Now around a 1 in 43 chance....

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense ... -2024-yr4/

That's got to be risky enough to actually need to plan for?

Raggs wrote: Sat Feb 08, 2025 4:32 pm

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 8:00 pm

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 3:18 pm We're all screwed



If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

Now around a 1 in 43 chance....

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense ... -2024-yr4/

That's got to be risky enough to actually need to plan for?

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 8:00 pm

inactionman wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 3:18 pm We're all screwed

Asteroid triggers global defence plan amid chance of collision with Earth in 2032

If I was more measured I'd acknowledge there's a circa 1 in a 100 chance of this happening, and damage will not be fully global, but I'm in a pessimistic mood today.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... earth-2032

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

Biffer wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2025 8:40 am This is something I’m increasingly worried about.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 24GL109280

As we increase the number of satellites in orbit, and we’re now on course to put thousands up every year, that means a decade or so away we have that number burning up in the atmosphere.

Upper atmosphere dynamics and chemistry aren’t fully understood, and neither are those of a satellite burning up. Every burn up will put aluminium oxide, and compounds including heavy metals and fragments of long chain hydrocarbons into this environment.

Aluminium oxide is a catalyst for ozone depletion (I.e. it speeds up the process), and this study estimates that we could be dumping more than 350 tonnes of it annually every year in ten years time.

That stuff will likely hang around in the atmosphere for decades. So fifteen or twenty years from now there are thousands of tons in the upper atmosphere.

As a species, we have a poor record of how things go when we say ‘we can just dump this in the river / the sea / the atmosphere, it’ll cope’.

We’re about to fuck things up again.

fishfoodie wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2025 6:28 pm

Biffer wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2025 8:40 am This is something I’m increasingly worried about.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 24GL109280

As we increase the number of satellites in orbit, and we’re now on course to put thousands up every year, that means a decade or so away we have that number burning up in the atmosphere.

Upper atmosphere dynamics and chemistry aren’t fully understood, and neither are those of a satellite burning up. Every burn up will put aluminium oxide, and compounds including heavy metals and fragments of long chain hydrocarbons into this environment.

Aluminium oxide is a catalyst for ozone depletion (I.e. it speeds up the process), and this study estimates that we could be dumping more than 350 tonnes of it annually every year in ten years time.

That stuff will likely hang around in the atmosphere for decades. So fifteen or twenty years from now there are thousands of tons in the upper atmosphere.

As a species, we have a poor record of how things go when we say ‘we can just dump this in the river / the sea / the atmosphere, it’ll cope’.

We’re about to fuck things up again.

I must dig out an interesting article I found months ago about how we're already approaching a tipping point where the plot of the movie "Gravity", becomes a real event & debris in LEO gets to the point where a catastrophic chain reaction occurs, & the result is so much debris that it becomes almost impossible to launch something without it getting hit on the way out thru LEO, so manned space flight becomes impossible.

Shit like Space Karens Starlink has on its own dramatically increased the probability of this happening.

fishfoodie wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2025 6:28 pm

Biffer wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2025 8:40 am This is something I’m increasingly worried about.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 24GL109280

As we increase the number of satellites in orbit, and we’re now on course to put thousands up every year, that means a decade or so away we have that number burning up in the atmosphere.

Upper atmosphere dynamics and chemistry aren’t fully understood, and neither are those of a satellite burning up. Every burn up will put aluminium oxide, and compounds including heavy metals and fragments of long chain hydrocarbons into this environment.

Aluminium oxide is a catalyst for ozone depletion (I.e. it speeds up the process), and this study estimates that we could be dumping more than 350 tonnes of it annually every year in ten years time.

That stuff will likely hang around in the atmosphere for decades. So fifteen or twenty years from now there are thousands of tons in the upper atmosphere.

As a species, we have a poor record of how things go when we say ‘we can just dump this in the river / the sea / the atmosphere, it’ll cope’.

We’re about to fuck things up again.

I must dig out an interesting article I found months ago about how we're already approaching a tipping point where the plot of the movie "Gravity", becomes a real event & debris in LEO gets to the point where a catastrophic chain reaction occurs, & the result is so much debris that it becomes almost impossible to launch something without it getting hit on the way out thru LEO, so manned space flight becomes impossible.

Shit like Space Karens Starlink has on its own dramatically increased the probability of this happening.

mat the expat wrote: Sun Feb 09, 2025 2:54 am

Raggs wrote: Sat Feb 08, 2025 4:32 pm

Biffer wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 8:00 pm

It's not a massive one, so not an extinction threat. But it's big. If it hit London, it'd flatten the entire city, shatter windows 100km away, cause earthquakes elsewhere and throw enough crap in the air to cool the climate for a few years.

Now around a 1 in 43 chance....

https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense ... -2024-yr4/

That's got to be risky enough to actually need to plan for?

What a time to be cutting funding for NASA....

Hal Jordan wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2025 3:39 pm

Don't worry, Space X just got $39m in non-waste Government money for some reason.

Raggs wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:28 am Asteroid is now upto a 1 in 38 chance of hitting us. Keeps going up.

Wonder just how much time and what odds are required for it to be acted upon for real.

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 11:28 am

Raggs wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:28 am Asteroid is now upto a 1 in 38 chance of hitting us. Keeps going up.

Wonder just how much time and what odds are required for it to be acted upon for real.

Can you be more specific which city is in the firing line before we assign resources. Orlando? Dublin? Durban?

Raggs wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 11:49 am

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 11:28 am

Raggs wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:28 am Asteroid is now upto a 1 in 38 chance of hitting us. Keeps going up.

Wonder just how much time and what odds are required for it to be acted upon for real.

Can you be more specific which city is in the firing line before we assign resources. Orlando? Dublin? Durban?

I don't know, it does make for an interesting question though! If Supreme Leader Musk is still in charge of the States, are they even going to recognise it's coming, or are they going to be first in line to have rockets to shoot at it?

Biffer wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:35 pm So, 1 in 38 chance of an impact, impact time would be around 2 pm UT on 22nd December 2032, but the uncertainty on that is plus or minus ten hours.

Given what's known about it, the impact would be in the equatorial region - so Europe and North America no risk of direct impact, but the Northern part of South America (Bogota/Caracas), sub Saharan Africa (including e.g. Abuja, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos), India (Mumbai, and Hyderabad) and parts of Western China would be at risk.

Damage would be up to 50km from the impact point although it's most likely to be an airburst if it hits over land. Would be equivalent to a 7-8 Megaton explosion. If it hit over ocean, it would cause some kind of tsunami, I've no idea how big that would be.

It'll be observable until about May (although for most of that only with the JWST space base telescope) and these observations are scheduled. After that we'll know a lot more about it. It has an orbit of about four years, so there will be another pass from about June 2028 which will allow further observation of the orbit. By that time we'll have a pretty accurate indication of how likely it is to hit us.

If it's still perceived to be a significant danger when observations in 2028 are taken in to account, then we will most likely launch a mission similar to the DART probe, which collided with an asteroid in 2022. The DART impact altered the motion of the asteroid in an observable way, so we could launch a mission to give 2024 YR4 a nudge at a vital time to take it well clear of Earth in 2032.

Raggs wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:58 pm

Biffer wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:35 pm So, 1 in 38 chance of an impact, impact time would be around 2 pm UT on 22nd December 2032, but the uncertainty on that is plus or minus ten hours.

Given what's known about it, the impact would be in the equatorial region - so Europe and North America no risk of direct impact, but the Northern part of South America (Bogota/Caracas), sub Saharan Africa (including e.g. Abuja, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos), India (Mumbai, and Hyderabad) and parts of Western China would be at risk.

Damage would be up to 50km from the impact point although it's most likely to be an airburst if it hits over land. Would be equivalent to a 7-8 Megaton explosion. If it hit over ocean, it would cause some kind of tsunami, I've no idea how big that would be.

It'll be observable until about May (although for most of that only with the JWST space base telescope) and these observations are scheduled. After that we'll know a lot more about it. It has an orbit of about four years, so there will be another pass from about June 2028 which will allow further observation of the orbit. By that time we'll have a pretty accurate indication of how likely it is to hit us.

If it's still perceived to be a significant danger when observations in 2028 are taken in to account, then we will most likely launch a mission similar to the DART probe, which collided with an asteroid in 2022. The DART impact altered the motion of the asteroid in an observable way, so we could launch a mission to give 2024 YR4 a nudge at a vital time to take it well clear of Earth in 2032.

Cheers for that! Fingers crossed it's in with a chance to hit us, but very dealable with.

Raggs wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:58 pm

Biffer wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:35 pm So, 1 in 38 chance of an impact, impact time would be around 2 pm UT on 22nd December 2032, but the uncertainty on that is plus or minus ten hours.

Given what's known about it, the impact would be in the equatorial region - so Europe and North America no risk of direct impact, but the Northern part of South America (Bogota/Caracas), sub Saharan Africa (including e.g. Abuja, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos), India (Mumbai, and Hyderabad) and parts of Western China would be at risk.

Damage would be up to 50km from the impact point although it's most likely to be an airburst if it hits over land. Would be equivalent to a 7-8 Megaton explosion. If it hit over ocean, it would cause some kind of tsunami, I've no idea how big that would be.

It'll be observable until about May (although for most of that only with the JWST space base telescope) and these observations are scheduled. After that we'll know a lot more about it. It has an orbit of about four years, so there will be another pass from about June 2028 which will allow further observation of the orbit. By that time we'll have a pretty accurate indication of how likely it is to hit us.

If it's still perceived to be a significant danger when observations in 2028 are taken in to account, then we will most likely launch a mission similar to the DART probe, which collided with an asteroid in 2022. The DART impact altered the motion of the asteroid in an observable way, so we could launch a mission to give 2024 YR4 a nudge at a vital time to take it well clear of Earth in 2032.

Cheers for that! Fingers crossed it's in with a chance to hit us, but very dealable with.

Biffer wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:55 pm

Raggs wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:58 pm

Biffer wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:35 pm So, 1 in 38 chance of an impact, impact time would be around 2 pm UT on 22nd December 2032, but the uncertainty on that is plus or minus ten hours.

Given what's known about it, the impact would be in the equatorial region - so Europe and North America no risk of direct impact, but the Northern part of South America (Bogota/Caracas), sub Saharan Africa (including e.g. Abuja, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Lagos), India (Mumbai, and Hyderabad) and parts of Western China would be at risk.

Damage would be up to 50km from the impact point although it's most likely to be an airburst if it hits over land. Would be equivalent to a 7-8 Megaton explosion. If it hit over ocean, it would cause some kind of tsunami, I've no idea how big that would be.

It'll be observable until about May (although for most of that only with the JWST space base telescope) and these observations are scheduled. After that we'll know a lot more about it. It has an orbit of about four years, so there will be another pass from about June 2028 which will allow further observation of the orbit. By that time we'll have a pretty accurate indication of how likely it is to hit us.

If it's still perceived to be a significant danger when observations in 2028 are taken in to account, then we will most likely launch a mission similar to the DART probe, which collided with an asteroid in 2022. The DART impact altered the motion of the asteroid in an observable way, so we could launch a mission to give 2024 YR4 a nudge at a vital time to take it well clear of Earth in 2032.

Cheers for that! Fingers crossed it's in with a chance to hit us, but very dealable with.

It’s dealable with IF

1. We have functioning governments that believe in science
2. Some fucking idiot doesn’t assure everyone he can do it, cheaper and better, with added benefits, on a shoestring budget, and some fucking arseholes believe him
3. We’re not in the middle of global fucking war by that time.

Raggs wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 8:24 pm

Biffer wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 1:55 pm

Raggs wrote: Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:58 pm

Cheers for that! Fingers crossed it's in with a chance to hit us, but very dealable with.

It’s dealable with IF

1. We have functioning governments that believe in science
2. Some fucking idiot doesn’t assure everyone he can do it, cheaper and better, with added benefits, on a shoestring budget, and some fucking arseholes believe him
3. We’re not in the middle of global fucking war by that time.

Those 3 are more or less why I want it to happen, hoping it'll focus the minds a bit more.

Guy Smiley wrote: Wed Feb 19, 2025 8:46 pm France's Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) WEST experimental reactor reports a successful fusion reaction for just over 22 minutes... (1337 seconds)

https://newatlas.com/energy/france-toka ... -duration/


if Europe manage to harness fusion, that could solve the whole Trump thing in minutes.