NPR

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:54 am

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:34 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:20 am Going back to the vaccine discussion yesterday - analysis from the FT:

Which pretty much matches the online calculator.

The real questionmark is the 3 million per week limit - but you can see how by mid July, in conjunction with seasonality, Covid deaths should be effectively zero, on the assumption that the 99% of deaths in groups 1-9 stays constant.

Possibly earlier if the single dose, effectively, prevents very serious disease. 1-9 should all have one dose by the end of March, so have protection by end April. I'd like to see may as the 'target' for the uk getting back to a relatively normal way of life - as long as the data supports it.

I don't think a single dose gets that far. It should cut down death rates by a good 60+%, and some seasonality will start to kick in, but I think a realisation that allowing any potential mass rates of infection (even if they don't result in serious illness/death) is what leads to rapid mutation and new strains

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:04 am

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:54 am

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:34 am

Which pretty much matches the online calculator.

The real questionmark is the 3 million per week limit - but you can see how by mid July, in conjunction with seasonality, Covid deaths should be effectively zero, on the assumption that the 99% of deaths in groups 1-9 stays constant.

Possibly earlier if the single dose, effectively, prevents very serious disease. 1-9 should all have one dose by the end of March, so have protection by end April. I'd like to see may as the 'target' for the uk getting back to a relatively normal way of life - as long as the data supports it.

I don't think a single dose gets that far. It should cut down death rates by a good 60+%, and some seasonality will start to kick in, but I think a realisation that allowing any potential mass rates of infection (even if they don't result in serious illness/death) is what leads to rapid mutation and new strains

Yep, new cases are, probably. still the yardstick. And, the most likely 'spreaders' are likely to be the last to be vaccinated. Hopefully the combination of vaccines, seasonal effects, and some moderate restrictions, can keep new cases to a low level. We'll have to wait until we see how effective the vaccine is, at preventing serious disease/death, in practice.

Can't quite see it mentioned yet, but South Africa has today started rolling out the Jannssen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine. As it's seemingly the first country to do so (emergency approval given on Friday) hopefully it (continues?) to return positive results against the predominant local variant.

Local production hasn't come into affect yet, seems they are performing the rollout coming from doses requisitioned for global clinical trials produced in Europe. Hopefully local production comes online before any issues re exports becomes a thing.

https://qz.com/africa/1973285/south-afr ... 9-vaccine/

Also Japan has started rollout today of the Pfizer jab. Qs I guess as to whether some countries will allow teams to go to the Olympics if insufficient domestic and Japanese vaccinations have taken place. If I recall the Aus government were the first to bar in 2020? Would be a shame if they didn't go ahead.

https://www.ft.com/content/644c9605-8ac ... wuWadBQbHM

Data from NRS today has further suggestion that the vaccine is starting to have an effect

I can't understand this!

The vaccine roll out is going far faster in some parts than others. A 52 year-old friend with no underlying health problems was given a 1st jab in Battersea yesterday. By next week, his GPs’ surgery will have completed all 9 at-risk groups and don’t know what to do next.

Yet a couple of miles away

A major vaccination centre in Hammersmith, that has already been delayed, has been pushed back further and now won't open until at least March.
The Novotel vaccination site was due to open in the week beginning February 8 but was initially delayed for two weeks due to a shortage in vaccine supply.

SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:50 pm I can't understand this!

The vaccine roll out is going far faster in some parts than others. A 52 year-old friend with no underlying health problems was given a 1st jab in Battersea yesterday. By next week, his GPs’ surgery will have completed all 9 at-risk groups and don’t know what to do next.

Yet a couple of miles away

A major vaccination centre in Hammersmith, that has already been delayed, has been pushed back further and now won't open until at least March.
The Novotel vaccination site was due to open in the week beginning February 8 but was initially delayed for two weeks due to a shortage in vaccine supply.

Sounds like London doesn't have a co-ordinated vaccine strategy. Individual trusts/surgeries just getting stocks delivered and calling their own patients only.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:30 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:50 pm I can't understand this!

The vaccine roll out is going far faster in some parts than others. A 52 year-old friend with no underlying health problems was given a 1st jab in Battersea yesterday. By next week, his GPs’ surgery will have completed all 9 at-risk groups and don’t know what to do next.

Yet a couple of miles away

A major vaccination centre in Hammersmith, that has already been delayed, has been pushed back further and now won't open until at least March.
The Novotel vaccination site was due to open in the week beginning February 8 but was initially delayed for two weeks due to a shortage in vaccine supply.

Sounds like London doesn't have a co-ordinated vaccine strategy. Individual trusts/surgeries just getting stocks delivered and calling their own patients only.

Surely its down to the PCN ?

"vaccination centres are organised by PCNs, groups of Practices working together."
Direct quote from my local surgery.

Glaston wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:25 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:30 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:50 pm I can't understand this!


Yet a couple of miles away

Sounds like London doesn't have a co-ordinated vaccine strategy. Individual trusts/surgeries just getting stocks delivered and calling their own patients only.

Surely its down to the PCN ?

"vaccination centres are organised by PCNs, groups of Practices working together."
Direct quote from my local surgery.

I had my vaccination at one of the "superhubs" managed by the local Community NHS Trust. Perhaps the Hammersmith operation is based on that model and the Battersea one a PCN?
Still a bit odd!

"Head out on the piss in Battersea, but stay away from infected Hammersmith"

SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:35 pm

Glaston wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:25 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:30 pm

Sounds like London doesn't have a co-ordinated vaccine strategy. Individual trusts/surgeries just getting stocks delivered and calling their own patients only.

Surely its down to the PCN ?

"vaccination centres are organised by PCNs, groups of Practices working together."
Direct quote from my local surgery.

I had my vaccination at one of the "superhubs" managed by the local Community NHS Trust. Perhaps the Hammersmith operation is based on that model and the Battersea one a PCN?
Still a bit odd!

There's crossover between the PCNs and Community Health. Our local GP is part of a group of 4 PCNs serving the town and local villages; but South Oxfordshire NHS Trust have a super vax centre in the Kassam and are running through a similar (but not quite the same) dataset, You can end up with an invite form both, but you only accept one or the other. Our neighbours have ended up split - one taking the vaccine from the PCN, the other from the trust.

377K doses delivered across the UK including 12K second doses (the highest since early Jan)

Saint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:01 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:35 pm

Glaston wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:25 pm
Surely its down to the PCN ?

"vaccination centres are organised by PCNs, groups of Practices working together."
Direct quote from my local surgery.

I had my vaccination at one of the "superhubs" managed by the local Community NHS Trust. Perhaps the Hammersmith operation is based on that model and the Battersea one a PCN?
Still a bit odd!

There's crossover between the PCNs and Community Health. Our local GP is part of a group of 4 PCNs serving the town and local villages; but South Oxfordshire NHS Trust have a super vax centre in the Kassam and are running through a similar (but not quite the same) dataset, You can end up with an invite form both, but you only accept one or the other. Our neighbours have ended up split - one taking the vaccine from the PCN, the other from the trust.

Wife and I are scheduled for our jabs on Saturday 27th. My daughter checked at the right time and slots were available, and I guess that a fair number of the over 65s are done so the early rush is over.

Fangle wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:31 pm Wife and I are scheduled for our jabs on Saturday 27th. My daughter checked at the right time and slots were available, and I guess that a fair number of the over 65s are done so the early rush is over.

Are you under 65?!

I feel grossly misled.

Enzedder will be telling us he's not qualified for a free bus pass next.

Mahoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:48 pm

Fangle wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:31 pm Wife and I are scheduled for our jabs on Saturday 27th. My daughter checked at the right time and slots were available, and I guess that a fair number of the over 65s are done so the early rush is over.

Are you under 65?!

I feel grossly misled.

Enzedder will be telling us he's not qualified for a free bus pass next.

Well over 65. I can’t see how I misled you. They are still only doing the oldies of the general population.

I thought you were saying the slots were available because all the over 65s were done, implying you are under 65.

Mahoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:08 pm I thought you were saying the slots were available because all the over 65s were done, implying you are under 65.

I was trying to say that the eager ones were done, the ones who monitor the sites 24/7 grabbing all the available appointments, and now us slower ones get a chance.

Mahoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:48 pm

Fangle wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:31 pm Wife and I are scheduled for our jabs on Saturday 27th. My daughter checked at the right time and slots were available, and I guess that a fair number of the over 65s are done so the early rush is over.

Are you under 65?!

I feel grossly misled.

Enzedder will be telling us he's not qualified for a free bus pass next.

Free buses? Woohoo - where do I sign up (and where do I catch them from these days?)

487k doses in the UK yesterday. Still hovering around the 3 million a week range

My missus had her jab today. She’s 60, but has advanced dementia so may have been bumped up the queue a bit. As her carer, I was put on a waiting list for a jab if they had any spare this evening, but I haven’t heard anything, so will just have to wait until I get called.

Saint wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:55 pm 487k doses in the UK yesterday. Still hovering around the 3 million a week range

Best Wednesday yet

Lobby wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:05 pm My missus had her jab today. She’s 60, but has advanced dementia so may have been bumped up the queue a bit. As her carer, I was put on a waiting list for a jab if they had any spare this evening, but I haven’t heard anything, so will just have to wait until I get called.

Tough about your wife.

My daughter put herself as my carer as I currently need help getting around, and despite her only being in her 30s, she is scheduled for a jab along with me.

Fangle wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:17 pm

Mahoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:08 pm I thought you were saying the slots were available because all the over 65s were done, implying you are under 65.

I was trying to say that the eager ones were done, the ones who monitor the sites 24/7 grabbing all the available appointments, and now us slower ones get a chance.

Excellent news, Fangle. Delighted for you both.

Lobby wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:05 pm My missus had her jab today. She’s 60, but has advanced dementia so may have been bumped up the queue a bit. As her carer, I was put on a waiting list for a jab if they had any spare this evening, but I haven’t heard anything, so will just have to wait until I get called.

Sympathies mate. Hope all goes well for you both..

TB63 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:57 pm

Lobby wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:05 pm My missus had her jab today. She’s 60, but has advanced dementia so may have been bumped up the queue a bit. As her carer, I was put on a waiting list for a jab if they had any spare this evening, but I haven’t heard anything, so will just have to wait until I get called.

Sympathies mate. Hope all goes well for you both..

Yeah, very sorry to hear that Lobby. Must be even harder for you with all the restrictions atm. Best of luck mate.

Depressingly the COVID Zoe app reckons that daily new cases have started to rise again in the UK - c.13,500 today after bottoming out around the 9th February at c.12,500.

(The Zoe data is normally ahead of the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases data because it's going off people reporting their symptoms each day.)

Theres some suggestion the bad weather last week suppressed testing so may have overstated the fall in cases leading to an apparent rise this week.

Mahoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:03 pm Depressingly the COVID Zoe app reckons that daily new cases have started to rise again in the UK - c.13,500 today after bottoming out around the 9th February at c.12,500.

(The Zoe data is normally ahead of the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases data because it's going off people reporting their symptoms each day.)

"Hey kids, Grandma had her jab yesterday. Let's all go visit her!"

Mahoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:03 pm Depressingly the COVID Zoe app reckons that daily new cases have started to rise again in the UK - c.13,500 today after bottoming out around the 9th February at c.12,500.

(The Zoe data is normally ahead of the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases data because it's going off people reporting their symptoms each day.)

I'm not sure how much the Government use the published figure compared to using the ONS estimates. I think these show a continuing decline.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... bruary2021

But the levelling off in the official stats is a bit discouraging.

468k doses delivered yesterday. Tailing off at the moment

JCVI seems to be vindicated with its 12 week gap strategy.

AZ actually seems more effective with a 12 week gap and PZ is showing robust protection from one jab:

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-02-19/pfi ... l-suggests

Meanwhile hostile briefing against AZ by some EU leaders are leading to problems with take up.

Got my AZ one in the arm today...

feel ok so far.

waiting for the autism to kick in later.

12027 cases yesterday - very marginally down on the day before - but still a couple of K reduction from last week. Graph is showing a levelling off though.

I guess the nature of the lockdown will be that there is a natural lower end, due to the number of people that are still having to travel to work places etc. And most of the 'spreaders' will not have been vaxxed yet. That should start to change now as we get more 'pre-retired' people jabbed.

yermum wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:11 pm Got my AZ one in the arm today...

feel ok so far.

waiting for the autism to kick in later.

Had mine last weekend
Arm ached a bit for 3 days and felt a bit listless/ tired for 48 hours
Had no effect on my autism though!

I've just found out I am in Group 6 (underlying health conditions, mine being epilepsy) for the vaccine, so apparently I can jump the queue.

SaintK wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:32 pm

yermum wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:11 pm Got my AZ one in the arm today...

feel ok so far.

waiting for the autism to kick in later.

Had mine last weekend
Arm ached a bit for 3 days and felt a bit listless/ tired for 48 hours
Had no effect on my autism though!

Do you guys have a choice of the vaccine you want or it’s decided by your health/age or just by the availability at the time?

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:02 pm I've just found out I am in Group 6 (underlying health conditions, mine being epilepsy) for the vaccine, so apparently I can jump the queue.

SaintK wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:32 pm

yermum wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:11 pm Got my AZ one in the arm today...

feel ok so far.

waiting for the autism to kick in later.

Had mine last weekend
Arm ached a bit for 3 days and felt a bit listless/ tired for 48 hours
Had no effect on my autism though!

Same here. Ms GL had the shakes and chills, ok now. You’ll be pleased to hear.