Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 10:08 pm
dpedin wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 8:22 pm
Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 5:15 pm
I’m the same as you. UK is in a great place at last.
The only issue is the more transmissible the variant the higher the % of the pop required to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and stop community transmission. If this variant is 50% more transmissible than the Kent one then that increases the figure required for herd immunity from the 80-85% previously thought required. Ive not seen the new % requirement and haven't done the calculation myself yet but it does stretch the target a little bit further away. Also as long as we have community transmission of the new variant then the more cases we will get - only 55% of the UK pop have had at least one jab so there are still c30m folk unvaccinated - and the more hospitalisations and long covid type cases we have and with still a lot of unknowns about the long term effect it is probably prudent not to just let the unvaccinated pop be put at unknown health risks? Even though hospitalisations are much lower in younger age groups it could potentially still be a lot of folk, a small % of a very large number is still likely to be a very large number! The last thing we want is for the NHS, which is now focusing upon the huge backlog of non covid cases to have to deal with lots of admissions of covid cases - the cancers, the cardiac cases etc need to be the priority. Better to be prudent and keep social distancing and masks etc until we reach higher levels of vaccination and cut community transmission to very low levels, it is only a matter a weeks away. Lets just be sensible, we are in a good place it would be a shame to snatch defeat ...
First of all there’s no evidence that any new variant is 50% more transmissible.
Second, you’re ruining my buzz man.
Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?
Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!