So, coronavirus...

[Calculon]

Children in the UK unlikely to be vaccinated

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57496074

Correct decision IMO

Why?

Delta variant leads to 1 in 100 children ending up in hospital.

That's not to mention the fact that delta variant pushes the % requirement for herd immunity up, to a point where we're unlikely to reach it with adults alone.

And the expert actually said: He said he was "veering towards not vaccinating children" because of the need to get the vaccine into the arms of more hard-to-reach adults instead.

So rather than using limited supplies on children, it was better to get it into adult arms first.

Mainly for the reasons stated in the article

Children's risk of severe disease from Covid is tiny, deaths are extremely rare and have only occurred in UK children with profound underlying and life-limiting conditions. The direct benefits to them of vaccination would be low.

Some people question whether it's morally right to vaccinate children in the UK, when so many millions of other people in the rest of the world are still unvaccinated.

Vaccinating children would be "mainly to protect public health and reduce transmission", he added

The risk to children are minute unless your child is immunocompromised in which case it might be bennificial for them to be prescribed the vaccine. You're gonna get herd immunity one way or the other and if a few extra children get the sniffles to achieve it so be it.

I also have other, selfish and ethical concerns, regarding the vaccination of children.

[tabascoboy]

Local vaccination centre accepting walk-ins for 18+ today

Actually a correction to that, it's for over 40s awaiting their 2nd jab although another centre is accepting 18+ walk-ins for 1st jab. Local centre was supposed to be getting some supply of Pfizer but they haven't received it and might have to close for a few days next week.

[Raggs]

Mainly for the reasons stated in the article

Children's risk of severe disease from Covid is tiny, deaths are extremely rare and have only occurred in UK children with profound underlying and life-limiting conditions. The direct benefits to them of vaccination would be low.

Some people question whether it's morally right to vaccinate children in the UK, when so many millions of other people in the rest of the world are still unvaccinated.

Vaccinating children would be "mainly to protect public health and reduce transmission", he added

The risk to children are minute unless your child is immunocompromised in which case it might be bennificial for them to be prescribed the vaccine. You're gonna get herd immunity one way or the other and if a few extra children get the sniffles to achieve it so be it.

I also have other, selfish and ethical concerns, regarding the vaccination of children.

As stated, 1 in 100 children are getting hospitalised with the delta variant. That's no longer tiny in my mind.

Getting infected also doesn't prevent further re-infection, people have caught covid multiple times, and in cases, subsequent infections have been worse. Vaccination is more effective than being infected.

If the risk of the vaccine is less than 1 in 100 being hospitalised, then it's the safer and better method of reaching herd immunity, it's also a far reliable method, as it doesn't expose those immunocompromised children to get there.

[Ovals]

Mainly for the reasons stated in the article

Children's risk of severe disease from Covid is tiny, deaths are extremely rare and have only occurred in UK children with profound underlying and life-limiting conditions. The direct benefits to them of vaccination would be low.

Some people question whether it's morally right to vaccinate children in the UK, when so many millions of other people in the rest of the world are still unvaccinated.

Vaccinating children would be "mainly to protect public health and reduce transmission", he added

The risk to children are minute unless your child is immunocompromised in which case it might be bennificial for them to be prescribed the vaccine. You're gonna get herd immunity one way or the other and if a few extra children get the sniffles to achieve it so be it.

I also have other, selfish and ethical concerns, regarding the vaccination of children.

As stated, 1 in 100 children are getting hospitalised with the delta variant. That's no longer tiny in my mind.

Getting infected also doesn't prevent further re-infection, people have caught covid multiple times, and in cases, subsequent infections have been worse. Vaccination is more effective than being infected.

If the risk of the vaccine is less than 1 in 100 being hospitalised, then it's the safer and better method of reaching herd immunity, it's also a far reliable method, as it doesn't expose those immunocompromised children to get there.

Where does the '1 in a hundred children' data come from - link ? And what % of those hospitalised, have underlying medical conditions that contribute to the severity of their illness ?

[Calculon]

Mainly for the reasons stated in the article

Children's risk of severe disease from Covid is tiny, deaths are extremely rare and have only occurred in UK children with profound underlying and life-limiting conditions. The direct benefits to them of vaccination would be low.

Some people question whether it's morally right to vaccinate children in the UK, when so many millions of other people in the rest of the world are still unvaccinated.

Vaccinating children would be "mainly to protect public health and reduce transmission", he added

The risk to children are minute unless your child is immunocompromised in which case it might be bennificial for them to be prescribed the vaccine. You're gonna get herd immunity one way or the other and if a few extra children get the sniffles to achieve it so be it.

I also have other, selfish and ethical concerns, regarding the vaccination of children.

As stated, 1 in 100 children are getting hospitalised with the delta variant. That's no longer tiny in my mind.

Getting infected also doesn't prevent further re-infection, people have caught covid multiple times, and in cases, subsequent infections have been worse. Vaccination is more effective than being infected.

If the risk of the vaccine is less than 1 in 100 being hospitalised, then it's the safer and better method of reaching herd immunity, it's also a far reliable method, as it doesn't expose those immunocompromised children to get there.

Do you have link for that one percent figure? And of that 1% how many were age 12 to 17? My understanding is that when it comes to children, infants under three months are the most vulnerable to covid19. How many of that 1% were immunocompromised, how many developed severe illness, how many died? IIRC, 0.006% of deaths of children during the pandemic in the States where as a result of covid19, that 0.006 % includes deaths with comorbidities.

And of course getting infected does prevent you getting reinfected - for the vast majority of people (over 99%). Slightly less so for the over 65s, but they should have already been fully vaccinated.


Vaccinating children should be useful in reducing overall transmission and some countries have started this. Maybe Britain will follow suit, once it has vaccinated its adult population and assessed if the vaccination of children is needed to further reduce transmission. This will also be a political decision. But from a global perspective when millions of health care workers and elderly people are still waiting for the vaccine, it is hardly the most effective use of the available vaccines, and for me at least, quite clearly ethically questionable.

[Biffer]

Children in the UK unlikely to be vaccinated

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57496074

Correct decision IMO

Why?

Delta variant leads to 1 in 100 children ending up in hospital.

That's not to mention the fact that delta variant pushes the % requirement for herd immunity up, to a point where we're unlikely to reach it with adults alone.

And the expert actually said: He said he was "veering towards not vaccinating children" because of the need to get the vaccine into the arms of more hard-to-reach adults instead.

So rather than using limited supplies on children, it was better to get it into adult arms first.

Mainly for the reasons stated in the article

Children's risk of severe disease from Covid is tiny, deaths are extremely rare and have only occurred in UK children with profound underlying and life-limiting conditions. The direct benefits to them of vaccination would be low.

Some people question whether it's morally right to vaccinate children in the UK, when so many millions of other people in the rest of the world are still unvaccinated.

Vaccinating children would be "mainly to protect public health and reduce transmission", he added

The risk to children are minute unless your child is immunocompromised in which case it might be bennificial for them to be prescribed the vaccine. You're gonna get herd immunity one way or the other and if a few extra children get the sniffles to achieve it so be it.

I also have other, selfish and ethical concerns, regarding the vaccination of children.

Mmm, mibbes. 19% of UK population is under 18. On the projected R number for the latest variant, we need 83% of the population vaccinated to get herd immunity. So you can't do it purely on over 18s. And the most recent research shows a stronger immune response from the vaccines than from infection.

[Sandstorm]

And of course getting infected does prevent you getting reinfected - for the vast majority of people (over 99%).

Is that a fact? I'll need some evidence please.

[Calculon]

Yeah, we're never gonna achieve full herd immunity but natural infection will play a role in achieving practical herd immunity.

[Saint]

And of course getting infected does prevent you getting reinfected - for the vast majority of people (over 99%).

Is that a fact? I'll need some evidence please.

The studies on this are pretty hard to translate in real world, because we have virtually no idea how many people returning positive tests have had asymptomatic Covid previously. However, the evidence suggests that if you've had symptomatic Covid previously then your protection against symptomatic Covid is around the same as with a vaccine - in the 90-95% range. However, your protection against death from Covid appears to be less than from the vaccines, which are near 100% effective

[Calculon]

And of course getting infected does prevent you getting reinfected - for the vast majority of people (over 99%).

Is that a fact? I'll need some evidence please.

No, not a fact, a mistake I made.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/study-co ... 3a1d04a8d4


Still, if you're under under 65 an infection does provide considerable protection against being reinfected. Depending on if it is with different variant, and the time frame, but these factors will influence protection from vaccination as well. Not saying you don't get better protection from the vaccine, and you're far, far less likely to get ill as well, which is a bonus.

[Raggs]

And of course getting infected does prevent you getting reinfected - for the vast majority of people (over 99%).

Is that a fact? I'll need some evidence please.

No, not a fact, a mistake I made.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/study-co ... 3a1d04a8d4


Still, if you're under under 65 an infection does provide considerable protection against being reinfected. Depending on if it is with different variant, and the time frame, but these factors will influence protection from vaccination as well. Not saying you don't get better protection from the vaccine, and you're far, far less likely to get ill as well, which is a bonus.

That study also shows that it's less effective than a vaccine. Furthermore, this would have been before the even more infectious, and vaccine evasive Delta variant.

Set spoilers as they're long tweets with images in.

As for the 1% figure:

Spoiler

Show

He's getting the data from the NHS admission figures.

He did one showing child admissions for the first wave too:

Spoiler

Show

[Saint]

One in every know child Covid case is being admitted. But there's bucket loads of unknowns. And it;s inevitble that children will form a much higher % of Covid cases during this wave, as will every group that isn;t double dosed. A lrge chun of the population is effectively removed from the equation now

[BnM]

[Raggs]

One in every know child Covid case is being admitted. But there's bucket loads of unknowns. And it;s inevitble that children will form a much higher % of Covid cases during this wave, as will every group that isn;t double dosed. A lrge chun of the population is effectively removed from the equation now

We can say the same about the hospitalisation rate of adults, in that there were those we didn't know about. We do know that Kent and Delta both travel through children more, and Delta effects children more. As pointed out previously, to reach herd immunity levels, a portion of children have to be vaccinated. Otherwise it's still going to just keep going round and reaching the vulnerable who couldn't be vaccinated.

[Saint]

One in every know child Covid case is being admitted. But there's bucket loads of unknowns. And it;s inevitble that children will form a much higher % of Covid cases during this wave, as will every group that isn;t double dosed. A lrge chun of the population is effectively removed from the equation now

We can say the same about the hospitalisation rate of adults, in that there were those we didn't know about. We do know that Kent and Delta both travel through children more, and Delta effects children more. As pointed out previously, to reach herd immunity levels, a portion of children have to be vaccinated. Otherwise it's still going to just keep going round and reaching the vulnerable who couldn't be vaccinated.

Well, whjat we really know is that Kent and Delta pass through people more. But, as a large % of adults are now double dosed, children will show up as a larger % of the cases

All other things being equal, if you eliminate the oldest 50% of the population from being infected then the remaining 50% will appear twice as much in the infection rate. So if children were 3% of infections before then they will be 6% this time round. And that assumes that your likelihood of admission was equal across age groups.

[Raggs]

One in every know child Covid case is being admitted. But there's bucket loads of unknowns. And it;s inevitble that children will form a much higher % of Covid cases during this wave, as will every group that isn;t double dosed. A lrge chun of the population is effectively removed from the equation now

We can say the same about the hospitalisation rate of adults, in that there were those we didn't know about. We do know that Kent and Delta both travel through children more, and Delta effects children more. As pointed out previously, to reach herd immunity levels, a portion of children have to be vaccinated. Otherwise it's still going to just keep going round and reaching the vulnerable who couldn't be vaccinated.

Well, whjat we really know is that Kent and Delta pass through people more. But, as a large % of adults are now double dosed, children will show up as a larger % of the cases

All other things being equal, if you eliminate the oldest 50% of the population from being infected then the remaining 50% will appear twice as much in the infection rate. So if children were 3% of infections before then they will be 6% this time round. And that assumes that your likelihood of admission was equal across age groups.

I understand that, but I believe case numbers (rather than simply ratios) are increasing in that age-range.

[Marylandolorian]

Guys, what are the positivity rate and the case rate per 100k in your area or county ?

[Biffer]

Guys, what are the positivity rate and the case rate per 100k in your area or county ?

Just over 200/100,000 in Edinburgh (seven day rate)

10 days ago it was 167. Only about 20 people in hospital off the back of that.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Guys, what are the positivity rate and the case rate per 100k in your area or county ?

74 in my area - Kingston upon Thames. It's been stable for about a week. Positivity rate in London is estimated at 0.24%

[dpedin]

Guys, what are the positivity rate and the case rate per 100k in your area or county ?

Just over 200/100,000 in Edinburgh (seven day rate)

10 days ago it was 167. Only about 20 people in hospital off the back of that.

It is very different from the previous waves. Case numbers now being driven largely by cases in younger folk, 15-24 year olds have by far the highest rate. Lower numbers in under 15 and 15-44 year olds and above that rates are very low. Looks like schools and colleges have been the main centres for transmission. Largest number of hospital admissions are in 25-44 year olds and from what I hear length of stays are shorter and less are being admitted to ICU beds. No data on long covid though, which is a worry still. There is some evidence that the Delta variant is causing more issues, even in the young so it is a worry that they are being exposed to it in large numbers.

Hospitals are very busy with routine work and are trying to make inroads into the backlogs of patients. However capacity issues are mostly workforce related - there might be theatre and bed capacity but staff are knackered and are catching up with delayed time offs etc. Going forward the workforce will be the critical and limiting factor.

[Slick]

Guys, what are the positivity rate and the case rate per 100k in your area or county ?

Just over 200/100,000 in Edinburgh (seven day rate)

10 days ago it was 167. Only about 20 people in hospital off the back of that.

It is very different from the previous waves. Case numbers now being driven largely by cases in younger folk, 15-24 year olds have by far the highest rate. Lower numbers in under 15 and 15-44 year olds and above that rates are very low. Looks like schools and colleges have been the main centres for transmission. Largest number of hospital admissions are in 25-44 year olds and from what I hear length of stays are shorter and less are being admitted to ICU beds. No data on long covid though, which is a worry still. There is some evidence that the Delta variant is causing more issues, even in the young so it is a worry that they are being exposed to it in large numbers.

Hospitals are very busy with routine work and are trying to make inroads into the backlogs of patients. However capacity issues are mostly workforce related - there might be theatre and bed capacity but staff are knackered and are catching up with delayed time offs etc. Going forward the workforce will be the critical and limiting factor.

Heard of 4 nursery’s being closed this week in Edinburgh. It’s certainly very different to previous waves

[laurent]

Guys, what are the positivity rate and the case rate per 100k in your area or county ?

35 in the country :) only 3 départements are over 50

Guyane is a concern though

numbers are still dropping so looks like summer will be OK and vaccination still going high. (hopefully by september we will be back to normal).

[Sandstorm]

Big spike in West Berkshire after months of almost none.

[Saint]

35.2 per 100,000 in South Oxfordshire - down 15.3% over the last 7 days. 75 per 100,000 across the UK - that's up 33.7% over the last 7 days

[Ovals]

Is that a fact? I'll need some evidence please.

No, not a fact, a mistake I made.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/study-co ... 3a1d04a8d4


Still, if you're under under 65 an infection does provide considerable protection against being reinfected. Depending on if it is with different variant, and the time frame, but these factors will influence protection from vaccination as well. Not saying you don't get better protection from the vaccine, and you're far, far less likely to get ill as well, which is a bonus.

That study also shows that it's less effective than a vaccine. Furthermore, this would have been before the even more infectious, and vaccine evasive Delta variant.

Set spoilers as they're long tweets with images in.

As for the 1% figure:

Spoiler

Show

He's getting the data from the NHS admission figures.

He did one showing child admissions for the first wave too:

Spoiler

Show

Thanks Raggs

[Ovals]

Guys, what are the positivity rate and the case rate per 100k in your area or county ?

35 in the country :) only 3 départements are over 50

Guyane is a concern though

numbers are still dropping so looks like summer will be OK and vaccination still going high. (hopefully by september we will be back to normal).

37 in Hampshire Up from around 10, 23 in my Borough up from 8, 72 in Southampton - up 600% in the last week. No doubt there will be a spread outwards from the Southampton area. The whole area was pretty much suppressed 3 weeks ago.

[Saint]

Guys, what are the positivity rate and the case rate per 100k in your area or county ?

35 in the country :) only 3 départements are over 50

Guyane is a concern though

numbers are still dropping so looks like summer will be OK and vaccination still going high. (hopefully by september we will be back to normal).

ECDC is reporting France at 110 per 100,000?

[Calculon]

Seems that is more children who have tested positive rather than being admitted to hospital because of covid19



Doesn't seem all that risky tbh

Spoiler

Show

And

[laurent]

Guys, what are the positivity rate and the case rate per 100k in your area or county ?

35 in the country :) only 3 départements are over 50

Guyane is a concern though

numbers are still dropping so looks like summer will be OK and vaccination still going high. (hopefully by september we will be back to normal).

ECDC is reporting France at 110 per 100,000?

nope
https://covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-france/
https://covidtracker.fr/
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/ar ... 55770.html
only 3 departement (Not overseas) and 5 counting overseas are over 50

[Dinsdale Piranha]

35 in the country :) only 3 départements are over 50

Guyane is a concern though

numbers are still dropping so looks like summer will be OK and vaccination still going high. (hopefully by september we will be back to normal).

ECDC is reporting France at 110 per 100,000?

nope
https://covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-france/
https://covidtracker.fr/
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/ar ... 55770.html
only 3 departement (Not overseas) and 5 counting overseas are over 50

ECDC is using 14 day average which is why the numbers are higher. Rates in France have been dropping fast.

[Saint]

ECDC is reporting France at 110 per 100,000?

nope
https://covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-france/
https://covidtracker.fr/
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/ar ... 55770.html
only 3 departement (Not overseas) and 5 counting overseas are over 50

ECDC is using 14 day average which is why the numbers are higher. Rates in France have been dropping fast.

Fair enough

[Ovals]

ECDC is reporting France at 110 per 100,000?

nope
https://covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-france/
https://covidtracker.fr/
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/ar ... 55770.html
only 3 departement (Not overseas) and 5 counting overseas are over 50

ECDC is using 14 day average which is why the numbers are higher. Rates in France have been dropping fast.

Has the Delta variant go a hold yet ? We'd all but cracked it until they let that in.

[Marylandolorian]

Interesting seeing how the NPR crowd is doing versus the numbers we see in the news. Beside Edinburg, things are looking good .
They did an awesome job with the Covidtrader.fr
As I mentioned before Maryland (pop 6 millions) has the 2nd lowest positivity rate at 0.75% and the case rate is 15/100k , we are also 2nd in vax and people still wearing masks even though it’s not mandatory anymore.

[mat the expat]

Australia is cooked as we've bet on AZ and now it's been restricted to over-60s

We keep getting spot-outbreaks for stupid reasons. The latest superspreader is a Limo driver who transports Aircrew to quarantine. He wasn't vaccinated...........

I'm relatively lucky, get my second Pfizer Jab next week but we're <4% vaccinated

[laurent]

nope
https://covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-france/
https://covidtracker.fr/
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/ar ... 55770.html
only 3 departement (Not overseas) and 5 counting overseas are over 50

ECDC is using 14 day average which is why the numbers are higher. Rates in France have been dropping fast.

Has the Delta variant go a hold yet ? We'd all but cracked it until they let that in.

Not really the English one is still the most common there has been some cases but apparently contained.
With the number of cases this low i hope they are tracking all the contact.

[Raggs]

So delta is apparently twice as infectious as original covid ( Kent was about 50% more). It's also 4x more likely to hospitalise by the looks of it.

Long Twitter thread on it.

Spoiler

Show

[Calculon]

As for the 1% figure:

Spoiler

Show

He's getting the data from the NHS admission figures.

He did one showing child admissions for the first wave too:

Spoiler

Show

So apart from the fact that this show children who tested positive with covid (after admission for non related issues and many of them asymptomatic for covid) rather than “admitted with covid", it also ignores the massive increase in testing in hospitals for covid which is bound to increase the overall number of positive cases.

Meanwhile, if you're a child your chance of dying of covid is less than 1 in a million, and if you're a child who is not immunocompromised, for all practical purposes you have zero risk of dying

[Calculon]

Fortunately the vaccine is extremely effective against the delta variant and children are largely unaffected by it

[Sandstorm]

Jesus wept! Just come off a conference call with a dozen Indian-based colleagues and they are all saying the Covid vaccines cause diabetes, so don't want to get their jabs.

[Slick]

Slightly unpleasant 2nd jag experience this morning.

I had to rebook last week when my appointment came through as I'm away. Eventually got one through in Glasgow and was up early this morning and drove over. Queue moved quick, all very well organised, sat down with my jagger who looked me up and said sorry, we can't do you here. He said that since I was from Lothian health board Glasgow wouldn't do it and I shouldn't be there. Showed him my booking from the NHS and he went away, came back 15 minutes later and asked me to leave!

I then spoke with the head nurse who said no as well, then changed her mind, but gave me a big lecture. Went back to the guy who then spent 5 minutes telling me that Glasgow was well ahead of anywhere else in Scotland so why should they be helping out other NHS boards....

Anyway, got it eventually.