Saffers

[handyman]

Your posting is so predictable, pretty much just go against anything I post. Im just glad I live rent free in your head, it brings loads of joy

It's difficult to agree with you, because you get it wrong so often. As a good human being and an elite poster, I have to correct you. Have to say that my patience is wearing thin, I don't see any progress with your development.

[Rinkals]

They trashed my brothers small solar operations office in Pinetown. The painted Free Zuma with black spray paint in 2 places, a window and a desk. I have the pictures.

Just been into Nottingham Road to the butchery which was trashed last week. As might be expected, the looters removed all meat and carcasses, but they destroyed the (empty) tills, demolished the cold rooms and took hammers and axes to the fridges.

If anyone says that this was not political and merely the understandable need of the poor to feed themselves, I'm inclined to call bullshit.

Quite clearly the motive behind it is to create enough political instability to replace Ramaphosa with someone who will give Zuma, Ace and others who might be implicated in corruption a free pass.

[handyman]

They trashed my brothers small solar operations office in Pinetown. The painted Free Zuma with black spray paint in 2 places, a window and a desk. I have the pictures.

Just been into Nottingham Road to the butchery which was trashed last week. As might be expected, the looters removed all meat and carcasses, but they destroyed the (empty) tills, demolished the cold rooms and took hammers and axes to the fridges.

If anyone says that this was not political and merely the understandable need of the poor to feed themselves, I'm inclined to call bullshit.

Quite clearly the motive behind it is to create enough political instability to replace Ramaphosa with someone who will give Zuma, Ace and others who might be implicated in corruption a free pass.

Must be heart breaking and soul destroying for the owners and employees.

[Big Nipper]

Your posting is so predictable, pretty much just go against anything I post. Im just glad I live rent free in your head, it brings loads of joy

It's difficult to agree with you, because you get it wrong so often. As a good human being and an elite poster, I have to correct you. Have to say that my patience is wearing thin, I don't see any progress with your development.

Please add some facts to the current debate to sway the general consensus that the DA is heading for a considerable loss of votes in the next election.

Thanks in advance

[Sards]

Ugh.....



Give it a vokken break dude. Handyman don't lower yourself

[handyman]

Ugh.....



Give it a vokken break dude. Handyman don't lower yourself

I won't. I hate bullies tho.

[Rinkals]

They trashed my brothers small solar operations office in Pinetown. The painted Free Zuma with black spray paint in 2 places, a window and a desk. I have the pictures.

Just been into Nottingham Road to the butchery which was trashed last week. As might be expected, the looters removed all meat and carcasses, but they destroyed the (empty) tills, demolished the cold rooms and took hammers and axes to the fridges.

If anyone says that this was not political and merely the understandable need of the poor to feed themselves, I'm inclined to call bullshit.

Quite clearly the motive behind it is to create enough political instability to replace Ramaphosa with someone who will give Zuma, Ace and others who might be implicated in corruption a free pass.

Must be heart breaking and soul destroying for the owners and employees.

The butchery only changed hands a couple of weeks ago.

The two young guys who bought it were pretty resigned about it.

[Big Nipper]

Ugh.....



Give it a vokken break dude. Handyman don't lower yourself

I won't. I hate bullies tho.

Cool, so you won't add any substance to the DA debate? You are too easy

[handyman]

Ugh.....



Give it a vokken break dude. Handyman don't lower yourself

I won't. I hate bullies tho.

Cool, so you won't add any substance to the DA debate? You are too easy

Sniping from the side, that's your playbook.

[Big Nipper]

Come now Handy, gives us your reasons why the DA are growing instead of shrinking? Seems like you have the facts

[OomStruisbaai]

The DA is kak, the ANC kakker and the EFF is kakste.

[Blake]

The DA is kak, the ANC kakker and the EFF is kakste.

The DA are, generally speaking, in a better position when it comes to political principles and policy than they have been for the past 6 years.

They will no doubt lose votes again this election, but At least their platforms are more consistent with their historic classical liberal values. They lost a lot of direction and focus trying to “appeal to new voters”.

Some will say that is a pragmatic thing to do. Without votes, you can’t enact you policies, so you should be as flexible as possible to grow your base and win. But when you inevitably gain power, you’ve made so many deals with so many devils you don’t know who to try and please anymore. And then everybody is unhappy.

I’d rather vote for a party that might only get 10% of the vote, but represents 90% of my principles and beliefs, than a party that wins 35% of the vote and only represents 50% of my principles.

[_Os_]

DA, natuurlik. Wanneer is die verkiesing?

Dink Os woon in die VK

I've probably voted more than most South Africans. In 2019 17.5 million voted, 26.7 million were registered voters, 37.2 million were eligible to register and vote. So if you voted last time you did more than most.

I may become a DA member again.

Yes, sitting on mud Island he will have lots of exposure to South Africans. And be able to talk to the average man in the street to hear what they think and believe.
You know it is a pity that those of us actually living here don't ever speak to our fellow citizens of all races to fi d out what they think about the political parties.

I am sure that Ox knows what Xola, my Sous Chef, and Brandon the sculler thinks about the DA. Ox probably listens in the the conversations between your colleagues Nips, and thus has the knowledge that they all will vote for the Zille lead DA .

Ox knows

Some of you really struggle with the idea that people can move about. Covid has been super kak, because it basically made that true.

But lets take on your general point. It's the old Saucer one "you need to speak to the man at the robot to know what's going on with the Springboks".

Maybe in some countries that are frankly very boring where everyone is from a very similar background and has a similar life experience, where everything is an average of everywhere else, maybe that's true in Ireland or Korea or somewhere. But South Africa isn't that place and never will be. There is no such thing as an average South African. An average Zulu person from northern KZN and an average coloured person from the Flats and an average middle class white English speaking person from Joburg's northern suburbs, may as well all be from different continents never mind countries. You could spend your entire life living in the Northern Cape/Freestate area, talking to all the sous chefs available. Yet feel very out of place in the entire provinces of Limpopo/Mpumalanga/KZN, if your English wasn't that good you could feel just as out of place in the southern suburbs of CT as in any of those provinces too.

So unless you're prepared to do a lot of reading and plow through the data, you end up not knowing much. By elections have a lower turnout compared to other elections, to attempt to get an accurate read on support you need to focus on by elections where every party competed (the lower turnout is magnified if the by election wasn't competitive). You then need to compare the by election to past elections in same place, in terms of the actual votes (not the percentage). So lets say a by election result was ANC: 800 DA: 360 EFF: 180, and the previous election there was ANC: 1000 DA: 400 EFF: 200. The ANC has lost 20% of its vote, the DA 10%, the EFF 10%. So the general outlook is a 10% lower turnout (by elections have a lower turnout), which means the DA and EFF held their vote, but the ANC took an additional hit of 10%. When I did the numbers on the last super round of be elections, focusing on those contested by the ANC/DA/EFF, the numbers in that example are what it looked like overall. To find more trends you need to overlay it with demographic data, there's no evidence the DA is losing the black supporters it has, and other than some realignment among a minority of Afrikaner voters towards the FF+ to match the 2019 election none that it's losing the white voters it has either. But I'm repeating myself now.

But back to the sous chefs and the opinions on Zille etc. The obvious point is, you can't lose the support of someone that never supported you. There's no organisation in SA that has done more polling of South African opinions over a prolonged period of time than the DA. The DA has decades of the stuff. Zille didn't actually have much power in the DA whilst Maimane was leader (she was the elected Premier of the Western Cape, but held no paid party position, she wasn't a staffer), her opponents in the Maimane camp wanted to get rid of her, so they used her tweet that "colonialism wasn't all bad" (the logic of which presupposes that it was bad, in other words she's saying it was mostly bad) to try and get rid of her and used the DA's polling machine to gauge public sentiment on her statement. They found that 57% of black South Africans agreed with her. There were even more extreme versions of her statement that they polled at the same time, and those also got very high positive responses from black South Africans. 38% of black voters said Zille's tweets made them more likely to vote DA. They then hid all of that because they wanted to get rid of her, they only released it when lawyers became involved.

The DA is kak, the ANC kakker and the EFF is kakste.

The DA are, generally speaking, in a better position when it comes to political principles and policy than they have been for the past 6 years.

They will no doubt lose votes again this election, but At least their platforms are more consistent with their historic classical liberal values. They lost a lot of direction and focus trying to “appeal to new voters”.

Some will say that is a pragmatic thing to do. Without votes, you can’t enact you policies, so you should be as flexible as possible to grow your base and win. But when you inevitably gain power, you’ve made so many deals with so many devils you don’t know who to try and please anymore. And then everybody is unhappy.

I’d rather vote for a party that might only get 10% of the vote, but represents 90% of my principles and beliefs, than a party that wins 35% of the vote and only represents 50% of my principles.

Oom does make a good point. The best way to vote, is to vote for the least worst, if you're in doubt always do that. Someone making a voting choice based on "best" (which ends up being the pursuit of something "perfect", which can never exist) is likely to stop voting eventually. The problem with the DA in recent years, was it started thinking it could rely on "least worst" and not itself aim for "best". For some people it then stopped being the least worst through the process you describe.

In the type of electoral system SA has 20% is a very large party that will end up in coalitions, a 30% party is massive. A party the size of the ANC isn't normal in the type of electoral system SA has, I doubt there'll ever be a party that size again in SA the history that produced it will never be repeated, even the ANC itself will not be the size it is now. Once the ANC goes below 50% no party is ever getting above 50% again. In the type of electoral system SA has, the crucial thing is that a party isn't a big tent mess (this only works for the ANC because of history) but instead clearly one thing only. The deals with the devils then get made in the coalitions.

[_Os_]

Haven't really asked but it was a clear and deliberate attack i.e. not looting. Not targeting him as all the other businesses in the small centrally based complex were targetted.

EDIT: Notice how the rollup door was cut open.

Looks like he's going to be okay if it wasn't burned down and nothing was looted. I feel bad for the guys that lost everything or nearly everything, and hope he's okay.

Devil's advocate. There's organised criminals fully capable of using an oxy acetylene cutter, they cut open all the units without knowing if there's anything loot. Because they're able to and no one is enforcing the law. Zuma was the pretext so they then spray that (I've seen it elsewhere too).

The alternative explanation is this was all masterminded by Zuma's camp. They have many organised/armed/professional units, and can do this when they want. The spray paint was their calling card/threat type thing.

I'm still going with the former as more likely. A lot of crime in SA is senseless with nothing much taken. In my post about it I said in Waterfall self storage units were attacked, including malicious damage of sentimental items, I struggle to understand what shitting on a family photo album has to do with anything.

The dregs of SA society got let loose (that doesn't mean poor and hungry people, someone rocking up in a Merc isn't that) and they did their thing. Hopefully there's a big DA vote and low ANC vote coming in Durban/PMB, we're potentially looking at a Detroit type death of a city in the not too distant future if something doesn't change in Durban's politics.

[Chilli]

At no stage did I say that they ever supported the DA. They won't support the DA while Kommandant Zille is pulling the strings.
A lot of middle class and upper working class people are fed up with the ANC and see the EFF for what it is.
If there was a party that offered an alternative they would probably vote for it.
That party is not the DA under Fuhrer Helen.

[_Os_]

At no stage did I say that they ever supported the DA. They won't support the DA while Kommandant Zille is pulling the strings.
A lot of middle class and upper working class people are fed up with the ANC and see the EFF for what it is.
If there was a party that offered an alternative they would probably vote for it.
That party is not the DA under Fuhrer Helen.

So the sous chefs have never supported the DA, so therefore the DA cannot lose their support. The DA is supposed to listen to them, when quite a lot of what they're saying is nonsense? How about something different, how about for once they listen to what the DA is saying.

The DA isn't for everyone. The issue a lot of black people have with the DA is that most whites support it and it's a party where it's possible for people who are not black to attain leadership positions. That is the long and the short of it. If Helen Zille isn't good enough, then basically no white person is. Black people that actually support and vote for the DA, overwhelmingly do not care about all this shit, those are the people the DA should listen more to.

If someone doesn't want to vote DA they shouldn't, they must instead get on with hating Zille and claiming there's no alternative party to vote for. People seem to think it's possible for the DA to win most votes, so the DA has to listen to all sorts of people that don't want to vote DA. But that's not the case in SA's electoral system, even the ANC is struggling for majorities now.

Nice touch calling Zille "Fuhrer" by the way, Zille had family members gassed in the Holocaust. It just shows how determined some are to misrepresent her.

[Chilli]

At no stage did I say that they ever supported the DA. They won't support the DA while Kommandant Zille is pulling the strings.
A lot of middle class and upper working class people are fed up with the ANC and see the EFF for what it is.
If there was a party that offered an alternative they would probably vote for it.
That party is not the DA under Fuhrer Helen.

So the sous chefs have never supported the DA, so therefore the DA cannot lose their support. The DA is supposed to listen to them, when quite a lot of what they're saying is nonsense? How about something different, how about for once they listen to what the DA is saying.

The DA isn't for everyone. The issue a lot of black people have with the DA is that most whites support it and it's a party where it's possible for people who are not black to attain leadership positions. That is the long and the short of it. If Helen Zille isn't good enough, then basically no white person is. Black people that actually support and vote for the DA, overwhelmingly do not care about all this shit, those are the people the DA should listen more to.

If someone doesn't want to vote DA they shouldn't, they must instead get on with hating Zille and claiming there's no alternative party to vote for. People seem to think it's possible for the DA to win most votes, so the DA has to listen to all sorts of people that don't want to vote DA. But that's not the case in SA's electoral system, even the ANC is struggling for majorities now.

Nice touch calling Zille "Fuhrer" by the way, Zille had family members gassed in the Holocaust. It just shows how determined some are to misrepresent her.

So the DA should not try to attract more voters by adapting certain of their policies etc?

That is a great strategy for them to grow

[Rinkals]

Haven't really asked but it was a clear and deliberate attack i.e. not looting. Not targeting him as all the other businesses in the small centrally based complex were targetted.

EDIT: Notice how the rollup door was cut open.

Spoiler

Show

Looks like he's going to be okay if it wasn't burned down and nothing was looted. I feel bad for the guys that lost everything or nearly everything, and hope he's okay.

Devil's advocate. There's organised criminals fully capable of using an oxy acetylene cutter, they cut open all the units without knowing if there's anything loot. Because they're able to and no one is enforcing the law. Zuma was the pretext so they then spray that (I've seen it elsewhere too).

The alternative explanation is this was all masterminded by Zuma's camp. They have many organised/armed/professional units, and can do this when they want. The spray paint was their calling card/threat type thing.

I'm still going with the former as more likely. A lot of crime in SA is senseless with nothing much taken. In my post about it I said in Waterfall self storage units were attacked, including malicious damage of sentimental items, I struggle to understand what shitting on a family photo album has to do with anything.

The dregs of SA society got let loose (that doesn't mean poor and hungry people, someone rocking up in a Merc isn't that) and they did their thing. Hopefully there's a big DA vote and low ANC vote coming in Durban/PMB, we're potentially looking at a Detroit type death of a city in the not too distant future if something doesn't change in Durban's politics.

I think you are way off.

Sure, looters can use cutting equipment, but to go to all that trouble when the prospects of financial or material reward is minimal leads one to the inevitable conclusion that the purpose was not about robbery, but about destroying businesses.

Similarly, our butcher in Nottingham Road not only had his produce stolen (to be expected), but had his fridges and cold room attacked with pick axes.

"Malicious damage of sentimental property" is one thing, but this is a systemic destruction of business equipment requiring a lot of effort.

While you are right in that your average Zuma supporter will probably eschew the hard work required in favour of something a little easier like graffiti, this coordinated action does imply a level of organisation you would probably find in the SSA many of whom are fiercely loyal to Zuma and have a lot to lose.

To me, it's obvious that the purpose is to undermine Ramaphosa and install someone like NDZ in the hope of stalling accountability (glacial, though that process may be).

[Rinkals]

At no stage did I say that they ever supported the DA. They won't support the DA while Kommandant Zille is pulling the strings.
A lot of middle class and upper working class people are fed up with the ANC and see the EFF for what it is.
If there was a party that offered an alternative they would probably vote for it.
That party is not the DA under Fuhrer Helen.

So the sous chefs have never supported the DA, so therefore the DA cannot lose their support. The DA is supposed to listen to them, when quite a lot of what they're saying is nonsense? How about something different, how about for once they listen to what the DA is saying.

The DA isn't for everyone. The issue a lot of black people have with the DA is that most whites support it and it's a party where it's possible for people who are not black to attain leadership positions. That is the long and the short of it. If Helen Zille isn't good enough, then basically no white person is. Black people that actually support and vote for the DA, overwhelmingly do not care about all this shit, those are the people the DA should listen more to.

If someone doesn't want to vote DA they shouldn't, they must instead get on with hating Zille and claiming there's no alternative party to vote for. People seem to think it's possible for the DA to win most votes, so the DA has to listen to all sorts of people that don't want to vote DA. But that's not the case in SA's electoral system, even the ANC is struggling for majorities now.

Nice touch calling Zille "Fuhrer" by the way, Zille had family members gassed in the Holocaust. It just shows how determined some are to misrepresent her.

So the DA should not try to attract more voters by adapting certain of their policies etc?

That is a great strategy for them to grow

100%

If their purpose is to represent whites only, then they are going to have to concede to the FF+.

If they are serious about Governing, then they cannot do it without attracting a large proportion of the black vote.

I would have thought this would be obvious.

[Chilli]

So the sous chefs have never supported the DA, so therefore the DA cannot lose their support. The DA is supposed to listen to them, when quite a lot of what they're saying is nonsense? How about something different, how about for once they listen to what the DA is saying.

The DA isn't for everyone. The issue a lot of black people have with the DA is that most whites support it and it's a party where it's possible for people who are not black to attain leadership positions. That is the long and the short of it. If Helen Zille isn't good enough, then basically no white person is. Black people that actually support and vote for the DA, overwhelmingly do not care about all this shit, those are the people the DA should listen more to.

If someone doesn't want to vote DA they shouldn't, they must instead get on with hating Zille and claiming there's no alternative party to vote for. People seem to think it's possible for the DA to win most votes, so the DA has to listen to all sorts of people that don't want to vote DA. But that's not the case in SA's electoral system, even the ANC is struggling for majorities now.

Nice touch calling Zille "Fuhrer" by the way, Zille had family members gassed in the Holocaust. It just shows how determined some are to misrepresent her.

So the DA should not try to attract more voters by adapting certain of their policies etc?

That is a great strategy for them to grow

100%

If their purpose is to represent whites only, then they are going to have to concede to the FF+.

If they are serious about Governing, then they cannot do it without attracting a large proportion of the black vote.

I would have thought this would be obvious.

We may have stumbled onto the reason why he is the Ox wagon......

[_Os_]

So the DA should not try to attract more voters by adapting certain of their policies etc?

That is a great strategy for them to grow

100%

If their purpose is to represent whites only, then they are going to have to concede to the FF+.

If they are serious about Governing, then they cannot do it without attracting a large proportion of the black vote.

I would have thought this would be obvious.

Oh jeez. It's never been a white party. Tony Leon was winning 5% of black (narrow definition not including coloured and Indian people) voters in elections in the early 2000s already. Most DA voters and members aren't white.

The purpose of a political party, isn't only about winning power (and especially when that's not possible), it's also about representing your constituents and expressing a clear defined viewpoint.

Trying to fudge issues and making compromises didn't work. 7 years were wasted. The DA tried that and didn't grow even whilst the ANC was wrecking everything.

There's no middle ground on something like BEE, most DA supporters and voters oppose it. Most of the DA membership opposes it. This is a hard position held by all actual DA supporters fairly overwhelmingly regardless of their identity. The same goes for whole range of issues, everything from merit, to property ownership, to free speech, to the rule of law.

So if someone doesn't agree with any of this. They're just not a DA supporter and they're probably never voting DA.

[Sandstorm]

Ox - what single issue do you think the DA should push to attract new supporters at the next election?

[_Os_]

Ox - what single issue do you think the DA should push to attract new supporters at the next election?

It's a municipal election so local government issues. DA has a strong record there where it has a majorities. I think they're going to aim to just the vote out, which will be enough probably because it looks like the ANC's vote is collapsing everywhere.

The coalitions in Joburg and Tshwane ended up in a mess, didn't have someone as strong as Zille to boss the coalition like she did in CT back in the day, Mashaba is a terrible politician whatever he's done in business hasn't translated into political nous he got controlled by the EFF. It's going to be more difficult there than it could've been. Job looks easier in Tshwane than Joburg, reasonable chance of getting the vote out and adding some there enough to have a DA controlled majority coalition with some minnows (FF+/ACDP/Cope, all got some seats there last time). Joburg is more difficult because out of all the SA cities it's the one with capacity to be much more than it is currently, there was a lot of expectation when the ANC were removed and it didn't translate into results (instead Mashaba in sourced workers at the behest of the EFF, salaries increased, performance didn't). Ekurhuleni (East Rand) also pushed the ANC below 50% last time, but the ANC still run it through a coalition with some minnows (AIC/PAC/PA/Independent Rate Payers), easy way to grow there is target any area that voted for the minnows with "you voted against the ANC, still got ANC, only a vote for the DA is a true anti-ANC vote", small parties so not many votes to be taken but better than nothing.

Durban/PMB will be an easy sell now. Just a straight boot the ANC out ticket, should be enough to get the vote out and grow the party. The DA has been growing strongly in KZN for quite awhile.

I lost track of all the PE stuff a bit, basically the ANC/EFF/UDM have played a spoiler role at the expense of the city to stop the DA getting anywhere. The DA was very close to an outright majority there in 2016 (only a few seats short of an outright majority), ANC vote was weak in that area in 2019. The target there will be UDM voters, they vote against the ANC but the UDM clearly played a load of games in PE and sided with the ANC. UDM vote was destroyed in 2019 (lost more than 50% of their 2014 total), because it went from being a moderate DA aligned type party to being unhinged. If the DA takes some of the UDM vote in PE it'll probably be enough.

... If you meant how do they win more votes in a national election. They just need to be honest (eg "Stop Zuma!") call out all the terrible ANC policies (BEE, cadre deployment and the rest), state their alternative policies, and point out the places they've governed well. They'll be heavily attacked for doing this because the zeitgeist is you must agree with the ANC on basically everything. But that'll also win them votes, it's the only way the DA has ever grown.

Long term the ANC is clearly dying. The direction looks to be no party above 50%, and a showdown between the DA and EFF in the late 2020s or early 2030s. No time for a load of fudged bullshit and losing voters now.

[Rinkals]

So the DA should not try to attract more voters by adapting certain of their policies etc?

That is a great strategy for them to grow

100%

If their purpose is to represent whites only, then they are going to have to concede to the FF+.

If they are serious about Governing, then they cannot do it without attracting a large proportion of the black vote.

I would have thought this would be obvious.

Oh jeez. It's never been a white party. Tony Leon was winning 5% of black (narrow definition not including coloured and Indian people) voters in elections in the early 2000s already. Most DA voters and members aren't white.

The purpose of a political party, isn't only about winning power (and especially when that's not possible), it's also about representing your constituents and expressing a clear defined viewpoint.

Trying to fudge issues and making compromises didn't work. 7 years were wasted. The DA tried that and didn't grow even whilst the ANC was wrecking everything.

There's no middle ground on something like BEE, most DA supporters and voters oppose it. Most of the DA membership opposes it. This is a hard position held by all actual DA supporters fairly overwhelmingly regardless of their identity. The same goes for whole range of issues, everything from merit, to property ownership, to free speech, to the rule of law.

So if someone doesn't agree with any of this. They're just not a DA supporter and they're probably never voting DA.

Again, I disagree.

I don't think BEE is something the DA should be pinning their colours to.

Most whites might not agree with it, but they accept that it's the way it is. For blacks, it's different: it's an important tool to give them a chance to get an equal footing in the economy.

By focussing on something which is not particularly important to whites, but very important to blacks, you are effectively alienating a good proportion of your voters for something that gains you nothing but loses you support from a substantial portion of the electorate.

I don't think anybody thinks that the BEE is perfect and shouldn't be overhauled, but, by making the removal of BEE a cornerstone of their political objectives, they've managed to lose the trust of the black vote on this.

[Rinkals]

Ox - what single issue do you think the DA should push to attract new supporters at the next election?

It's a municipal election so local government issues. DA has a strong record there where it has a majorities. I think they're going to aim to just the vote out, which will be enough probably because it looks like the ANC's vote is collapsing everywhere.

The coalitions in Joburg and Tshwane ended up in a mess, didn't have someone as strong as Zille to boss the coalition like she did in CT back in the day, Mashaba is a terrible politician whatever he's done in business hasn't translated into political nous he got controlled by the EFF. It's going to be more difficult there than it could've been. Job looks easier in Tshwane than Joburg, reasonable chance of getting the vote out and adding some there enough to have a DA controlled majority coalition with some minnows (FF+/ACDP/Cope, all got some seats there last time). Joburg is more difficult because out of all the SA cities it's the one with capacity to be much more than it is currently, there was a lot of expectation when the ANC were removed and it didn't translate into results (instead Mashaba in sourced workers at the behest of the EFF, salaries increased, performance didn't). Ekurhuleni (East Rand) also pushed the ANC below 50% last time, but the ANC still run it through a coalition with some minnows (AIC/PAC/PA/Independent Rate Payers), easy way to grow there is target any area that voted for the minnows with "you voted against the ANC, still got ANC, only a vote for the DA is a true anti-ANC vote", small parties so not many votes to be taken but better than nothing.

Durban/PMB will be an easy sell now. Just a straight boot the ANC out ticket, should be enough to get the vote out and grow the party. The DA has been growing strongly in KZN for quite awhile.

I lost track of all the PE stuff a bit, basically the ANC/EFF/UDM have played a spoiler role at the expense of the city to stop the DA getting anywhere. The DA was very close to an outright majority there in 2016 (only a few seats short of an outright majority), ANC vote was weak in that area in 2019. The target there will be UDM voters, they vote against the ANC but the UDM clearly played a load of games in PE and sided with the ANC. UDM vote was destroyed in 2019 (lost more than 50% of their 2014 total), because it went from being a moderate DA aligned type party to being unhinged. If the DA takes some of the UDM vote in PE it'll probably be enough.

... If you meant how do they win more votes in a national election. They just need to be honest (eg "Stop Zuma!") call out all the terrible ANC policies (BEE, cadre deployment and the rest), state their alternative policies, and point out the places they've governed well. They'll be heavily attacked for doing this because the zeitgeist is you must agree with the ANC on basically everything. But that'll also win them votes, it's the only way the DA has ever grown.

Long term the ANC is clearly dying. The direction looks to be no party above 50%, and a showdown between the DA and EFF in the late 2020s or early 2030s. No time for a load of fudged bullshit and losing voters now.

Fuck me, Ox, that is deluded!

"didn't have someone as strong as Zille to boss the coalition"

[Big Nipper]

I swear I have never seen someone simp as hard for Helen Zille as Ox. I am still convinced he is related to Gareth van Onselen.

[_Os_]

Fuck me, Ox, that is deluded!

"didn't have someone as strong as Zille to boss the coalition"

It's common knowledge Mashaba got steamrollered by the EFF in Joburg, Mashaba ended up doing what he was told by the EFF. The EFF ended up dictating appointments. The EFF was much smaller than the DA in Joburg.

Zille successfully led a coalition of eight parties, that implemented almost the entire DA programme in CT after 2006. She even immediately starting removing ANC cadres from the city administration going to court to do it.

Of course Joburg would've been better off with someone like Zille. Instead they got an EFF lackey.

[_Os_]

I swear I have never seen someone simp as hard for Helen Zille as Ox. I am still convinced he is related to Gareth van Onselen.

You've haven't spoken to many DA people if you think I'm her biggest fan. There's people that literally love her. I've just stated her record is good.

As for the G. If you support a political party, then of course there's going to be agreement on a lot of issues. That's the point.

[_Os_]

Again, I disagree.

I don't think BEE is something the DA should be pinning their colours to.

Most whites might not agree with it, but they accept that it's the way it is. For blacks, it's different: it's an important tool to give them a chance to get an equal footing in the economy.

By focussing on something which is not particularly important to whites, but very important to blacks, you are effectively alienating a good proportion of your voters for something that gains you nothing but loses you support from a substantial portion of the electorate.

I don't think anybody thinks that the BEE is perfect and shouldn't be overhauled, but, by making the removal of BEE a cornerstone of their political objectives, they've managed to lose the trust of the black vote on this.

So your plan is say nothing about BEE. That plan lasts as long as it takes for a party that supports it to ask what the DA's position is, and if the DA refuses to answer, then they just get asked over and over again.

Most DA members/supporters/voters do not support BEE. Most of these people are not white. It's a failure RInkals, if BEE worked inequality wouldn't have increased since 1994, all it has become is a cover for corruption.

I mean what to make of this? Your position say nothing about BEE, it's actually a good thing, and it needs to be totally overhauled?! You've picked every option, this crazy fence sitting is why the DA got nowhere for years. No one can trust it.

There's no such thing as the "black vote" Rinkals, every black person doesn't get one single vote shared between millions of people.

If someone agrees with ANC policies and thinks they all work just fine. They should vote ANC, not demand the DA adopts every single (unworkable and failed) ANC policy in some hope they can make them work (they can't make them work, no one can).

[Blake]

Oom does make a good point. The best way to vote, is to vote for the least worst, if you're in doubt always do that. Someone making a voting choice based on "best" (which ends up being the pursuit of something "perfect", which can never exist) is likely to stop voting eventually. The problem with the DA in recent years, was it started thinking it could rely on "least worst" and not itself aim for "best". For some people it then stopped being the least worst through the process you describe.

In the type of electoral system SA has 20% is a very large party that will end up in coalitions, a 30% party is massive. A party the size of the ANC isn't normal in the type of electoral system SA has, I doubt there'll ever be a party that size again in SA the history that produced it will never be repeated, even the ANC itself will not be the size it is now. Once the ANC goes below 50% no party is ever getting above 50% again. In the type of electoral system SA has, the crucial thing is that a party isn't a big tent mess (this only works for the ANC because of history) but instead clearly one thing only. The deals with the devils then get made in the coalitions.

I think we are in agreement here. Voters should always choose the "least worst" solution, but political parties shouldn't try to appeal to other voters by being the least worst.
They should be grounded in policy and political theory. As soon as they start straying from that, like the DA did for the last 8-10 years, it causes other problems.
By drifting from some of their core tenets in order to try and lure over disgruntled ANC voters, and appeal to young black voters' outrage over lack of progress, they changed their position on that spectrum for a lot of their base, which voted for the FF+ and ACDP in protest.

I long for the day were the compromises will be made in coalitions.
Where the DA can vote with the ANC and against the ACDP on social issues like abortion and the death penalty and same-sex marriage rights, but against the ANC and with the ACDP and FF+ against things like land EWC, the current BBE implentation etc.

The ANC fracturing into 3x 20% parties is taking a lot longer than I hoped it would, and the failure of attempted breakaways like the EFF, UDM and COPE has probably served as a very effective warning. Like they often like to say "It's cold outside of the ANC". Maybe this time it will be diffirent; with the Cyril vs Zuma/Ace camps. They are in reality on the verge of spilling the ANC down the middle, and are just fighting for who gets to retain the branding as that alone is worth 20% of the national vote, regardless of who is on the ballot.

[Rinkals]

Again, I disagree.

I don't think BEE is something the DA should be pinning their colours to.

Most whites might not agree with it, but they accept that it's the way it is. For blacks, it's different: it's an important tool to give them a chance to get an equal footing in the economy.

By focussing on something which is not particularly important to whites, but very important to blacks, you are effectively alienating a good proportion of your voters for something that gains you nothing but loses you support from a substantial portion of the electorate.

I don't think anybody thinks that the BEE is perfect and shouldn't be overhauled, but, by making the removal of BEE a cornerstone of their political objectives, they've managed to lose the trust of the black vote on this.

So your plan is say nothing about BEE. That plan lasts as long as it takes for a party that supports it to ask what the DA's position is, and if the DA refuses to answer, then they just get asked over and over again.

Most DA members/supporters/voters do not support BEE. Most of these people are not white. It's a failure RInkals, if BEE worked inequality wouldn't have increased since 1994, all it has become is a cover for corruption.

I mean what to make of this? Your position say nothing about BEE, it's actually a good thing, and it needs to be totally overhauled?! You've picked every option, this crazy fence sitting is why the DA got nowhere for years. No one can trust it.

There's no such thing as the "black vote" Rinkals, every black person doesn't get one single vote shared between millions of people.

If someone agrees with ANC policies and thinks they all work just fine. They should vote ANC, not demand the DA adopts every single (unworkable and failed) ANC policy in some hope they can make them work (they can't make them work, no one can).

Yes: they should keep quiet about BEE, if they can. It's an area that, primarily because of Zille's comments in the past (and some of the leadership) , the DA can be easily attacked.

I say again, in case you missed it: whites generally don't care about BEE, so even if the DA were to commit to abolishing it, I doubt they would pick up a single vote.

On the other hand, blacks would leave in droves (if they haven't already left).

If the DA's purpose is to just harvest the white vote, then they are going to have a hard time competing with parties like FF+ et al who are a lot more vocal on racial issues and protecting white minorities.

The DA needs to attract a bigger portion of the black vote (ignoring your contention that it doesn't exist) to remain relevant, and attacking BEE is not going to do it.

I say again that BEE i not a perfect system, and, if the DA could propose a workable replacement that could be seen as valuable for the black communities, they may have a chance, but opening the system up to market forces won't cut it, I'm afraid.

[Rinkals]

Fuck me, Ox, that is deluded!

"didn't have someone as strong as Zille to boss the coalition"

It's common knowledge Mashaba got steamrollered by the EFF in Joburg, Mashaba ended up doing what he was told by the EFF. The EFF ended up dictating appointments. The EFF was much smaller than the DA in Joburg.

Zille successfully led a coalition of eight parties, that implemented almost the entire DA programme in CT after 2006. She even immediately starting removing ANC cadres from the city administration going to court to do it.

Of course Joburg would've been better off with someone like Zille. Instead they got an EFF lackey.

Absolutely deluded.

Zille would have polarised the coalition to the point where it would have ground to a halt. What do you think happened to Trollip in PE?

Zille was only able to control Cape Town because she had the numbers to do it and the cooperation of de Lille.

Your comparisons don't make any sense.

[Blake]

This narrative that a political party has to taylor their political positions and policies around voting block A or voting block B to “remain relevant” is a tricky one.

It’s a slippery slope in my opinion and part of the problem with politics in general.

I realise it is naive and idealistic, but if we are ever going to achieve a proper meritocracy our politics have to be grounded in set of core principles and political theory.

It is then the job of each political party to express how they are going to address problems within their framework and why their solution is better.

The DA used to do this and drifted with Mmaimane at the helm, trying to “appeal to black voters” while completely abandoning some of their core political principles. It lead to infighting in the party and a lot of bad press. Many voters just felt that “something was off” and were put off by noise and took their votes elsewhere.

I’m glad the DA are getting their “soul” back. Even if it does mean losing some votes in the short term. Their real challenge is going to be expressing their position on the thorny issues that plague SA politics. They need to get better at communicating that that are not apposed to BEE in principle, but want to plug the holes being exploited by fronting and by connected businessmen. They are not opposed to land redistribution, they just don’t think EWC will work as the skills shortage and results in those farms being run into the ground. The data proves this. Public-private partnerships are more effective and sustainable.

The positions are nuanced and difficult to promote on an election poster or Twitter post. Voters prefer an entire policy position to be summarised in am acronym.

[Rinkals]

My point is simple.

Either they continue to focus on a small section the electorate or they attempt to grow their appeal so that they are a valid opposition and can realistically challenge for government.

If they go the former route, they risk falling between 2 stools and losing voters to the parties which seek to advance white minority interests on the one side and alienating black voters on the other.

Focussing on BEE is a loser on both counts.

The DA should present itself as a non-racial party with the emphasis on good governance. Unfortunately, Zille has made sure that this will be impossible to do convincingly.

[Blake]

That is a false dichotomy.

There is also the option of having a consistent set of principles and political philosophy and growing your voter base by proving that it is superior to the alternatives.

No grandstanding, no political stunts, no trying to leverage wedge issues and crowbar yourself into political discourse.

It’s not flashy, it takes time and effort, but it’s the only way to gain credibility. It served the DA well under Leon and grew it to a formidable opposition under initially. But as soon as they abandoned their principles to chase votes they became an easy target.

The DA should be happy to shed their white voters to the FF+. It gives them a scapegoat when they have to fend off lazy “party of whites” attacks. “No, no, no…the whites are over there in the FF+. We are the non-racial party that’s good at hovering”.

Fact is, they are aligned with the FF+ on enough issues (free speech, minority rights, economic policy etc) that they can form a voting block there, and for more progressive issues they can vote with the ANC when needed.

Right now their biggest challenge will be shaking off the party of whites tag while their top leadership is white. The answer is not to instill a puppet leader like Mazibuko, or Mmaimane or Ramphele. All of those were missteps “in order to appeal to black voters”. They should just go about their business, govern cleanly, frame every issue around their policy positions and platforms, and let results speak for themselves while talent bubbles up to the top and try their damndest to get some black talent to buy into their political philosophy.

[Rinkals]

Seriously?

If the DA attack a measure which is seen as beneficial to blacks, I don't see how they can expect blacks to support them. Conversely, I don't think BEE is sufficiently important for white voters to make it worthwhile.

If they haemorrhage black voters, then they risk losing their status as the official opposition to the EFF. And losing voters to the FF+doesn't help.

As I said, they should avoid this and concentrate on promoting themselves as the party of good governance. However, it's probably too late for that: the DA will probably still be seen amongst black voters as the party of Zille. Much as one might appreciate Zille's contribution to the anti-Apartheid struggle, her continued mis-steps, her praise of Collonialism and her divisive personality do a lot of damage to the DA's reputation, particularly among the black middle classes which they need if they want to govern.

I will continue to vote DA, but it's a little like farting against thunder.

[Rinkals]

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... as-release

Their lack of original content, high tweet volume, their constant engagement with the RET forces network and the use of sophisticated tactics to produce and distribute content in a strategic manner suggests a high level of organisation and social media expertise.

Maybe Sards is right and the reds really are under the bed.

In any case, the notion that the drivers behind this were poverty and general discontent is undermined by the level of organisation employed. This was an attempt to ignite a rebellion.

[Chilli]

Seriously?

If the DA attack a measure which is seen as beneficial to blacks, I don't see how they can expect blacks to support them. Conversely, I don't think BEE is sufficiently important for white voters to make it worthwhile.

If they haemorrhage black voters, then they risk losing their status as the official opposition to the EFF. And losing voters to the FF+doesn't help.

As I said, they should avoid this and concentrate on promoting themselves as the party of good governance. However, it's probably too late for that: the DA will probably still be seen amongst black voters as the party of Zille. Much as one might appreciate Zille's contribution to the anti-Apartheid struggle, her continued mis-steps, her praise of Collonialism and her divisive personality do a lot of damage to the DA's reputation, particularly among the black middle classes which they need if they want to govern.

I will continue to vote DA, but it's a little like farting against thunder.

I agree with you Rinky
I'll probably vote DA in these elections. Our ANC Councilor really does a good job, but in general Gqeberha is run very poorly. If we could vote for a candidate and not a party I might vote for him.
Having said that the DA candidate is working very hard to keep the Councilor on his toes.

If this was a National election I don't think I'd vote DA.

[Chilli]

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... as-release

Their lack of original content, high tweet volume, their constant engagement with the RET forces network and the use of sophisticated tactics to produce and distribute content in a strategic manner suggests a high level of organisation and social media expertise.

Maybe Sards is right and the reds really are under the bed.

In any case, the notion that the drivers behind this were poverty and general discontent is undermined by the level of organisation employed. This was an attempt to ignite a rebellion.

✔

[Blake]

If the DA attack a measure which is seen as beneficial to blacks, I don't see how they can expect blacks to support them. Conversely, I don't think BEE is sufficiently important for white voters to make it worthwhile.

Your entire position is predicated on this statement, when nobody said anything about "attacking" policies.
It's all about framing the DA's position for or against any policy correctly and concisely and being able to communicate that position to the voters, in among all the noise generated by social and traditional media.
Not all of their positions are going to be popular, they need to be okay with that, and find a way to frame their position that polls better.

If they engage with the ANC and EFF trolls and try their luck at being populist demagogues, they will lose the game and their voters.
As with most things deciding what NOT to do is just as important as deciding what you are going to do.