Kicking off in Israel

[Tichtheid]

Regarding the question on whether there is something from Norn Irn that can be applied to “the Middle East”, I caught the very end of an interview on C4 news last night where the question was asked if there was an honest broker, universally accepted that could mediate, the depressing answer was no, there isn’t any country, organisation or person who fits that description.

[Hugo]

What do you mean by "with some legitimacy attached to their grievances?"

https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/28/wes ... n-children

^ From over a month ago. 2023 has been the deadliest year for Palestinian children being killed by Israeli military/police. Most parents and communities are going to respond when their kids are being killed by the state.

It's a sad loss of life but if it was my 17 year old "child" I'd make sure they weren't attacking military personnel, knowing that those military personnel could potentially open fire.

They weren't all throwing rocks, one lad was minding his own business en route to school. Others were shot in the back as they fled, posing no threat to the military.

[Hugo]

Does the peace work that was undertaken in Northern Ireland provide any sort of template that can be used in the Middle East?

Or is the Israel/Palestine conflict a significantly more complicated situation where no comparison could possibly apply?

At the risk of being accused of minimising The Troubles, more people have probably died in Israel/Palestine since Saturday than did over c.30 years in NI. The IRA never massacred 200+ people in cold blood in a morning and the RAF never carpet bombed Derry.

This is before you look at the much lower levels of cultural ties, the fact Hamas etc have more significant foreign backing and that both sides have a much more justified feeling of existential threat. I’m not convinced there’s much to copy over.

Sadly the model over a longer span for resolving ethnic conflicts like this does IMO generally end with one side being kicked out the area/forcibly assimilated. Hamas are pretty explicit about this, mainstream Israeli opinion is more circumspect on this point but I can’t imagine behind closed doors they’d be the same.

Fair enough. I suppose that geography is another key distinction. Northern Ireland is relatively isolated whereas Israel is surrounded by many different countries all with their own goals & objectives which complicates matters.

[Hugo]

Regarding the question on whether there is something from Norn Irn that can be applied to “the Middle East”, I caught the very end of an interview on C4 news last night where the question was asked if there was an honest broker, universally accepted that could mediate, the depressing answer was no, there isn’t any country, organisation or person who fits that description.

Interesting and sad. Im assuming the contention was that the US fit that bill for the troubles?

The book Taming American power makes the argument that Americas geographical isolation from the rest of the world (Mexico, Canada aside) give it extraordinary mediating capabilities. Alas, the full fledged support of Israel negates that here.

However, there was a time that the US was more neutral, I don't recall when.

[Line6 HXFX]

This Israel has a right to defend themselves, seems to ignore the minor fact that it is an illegal occupation, Israel in the eyes of the whole world, are illegal occupiers..against all internatiinal law..and the fact that settlements have been going up, illegally, against international law at an austounding rate seems to be just ignored.
Israel doesn't want peace or a two state solution, never did and seemed intent on provoking palistinians, so they can just obliterate palistinians off the face of the earth and steal their land.

if we are not enforcing international law, it shouldn't come as a massive shock when people take it into their own hands.

This could happen to you. If you are Scottish or Welsh, were you ever to be independent..illegal English land grabs..illegal English settlements.. could easily be your future. This exact scenario, being played out in the desert.

It was certainly in your past.

What, you honestly think the "Wales is not a country, the Celts are not a race" thing is just banter?

[Tichtheid]

Regarding the question on whether there is something from Norn Irn that can be applied to “the Middle East”, I caught the very end of an interview on C4 news last night where the question was asked if there was an honest broker, universally accepted that could mediate, the depressing answer was no, there isn’t any country, organisation or person who fits that description.

Interesting and sad. Im assuming the contention was that the US fit that bill for the troubles?

The book Taming American power makes the argument that Americas geographical isolation from the rest of the world (Mexico, Canada aside) give it extraordinary mediating capabilities. Alas, the full fledged support of Israel negates that here.

However, there was a time that the US was more neutral, I don't recall when.

That was my contention, yes.

On your last sentence, wasn’t it Kissinger who said “ America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests”

[C69]

Random question here, but why does the British news not just call HAMAS Err just HAMAS.

Every time I was a report it's the "militant group HAMAS" or HAMAS militants It's just bizzare.

I'm not going to even enter discussion on the conflict.
It's going to get very bloody and scenes from Gazza are going to be horrific and thousands of civilians on both sides are going to be slaughtered.

How the fuck did the IDF intelligence not act on Egyptian concerns?

[Raggs]

Random question here, but why does the British news not just call HAMAS Err just HAMAS.

Every time I was a report it's the "militant group HAMAS" or HAMAS militants It's just bizzare.

I'm not going to even enter discussion on the conflict.
It's going to get very bloody and scenes from Gazza are going to be horrific and thousands of civilians on both sides are going to be slaughtered.

How the fuck did the IDF intelligence not act on Egyptian concerns?

Calling them militants rather undermines the fact that they're the governing body of Gaza doesn't it. Makes it seem more like a small group that aren't officially in charge.

[Hugo]

Regarding the question on whether there is something from Norn Irn that can be applied to “the Middle East”, I caught the very end of an interview on C4 news last night where the question was asked if there was an honest broker, universally accepted that could mediate, the depressing answer was no, there isn’t any country, organisation or person who fits that description.

Interesting and sad. Im assuming the contention was that the US fit that bill for the troubles?

The book Taming American power makes the argument that Americas geographical isolation from the rest of the world (Mexico, Canada aside) give it extraordinary mediating capabilities. Alas, the full fledged support of Israel negates that here.

However, there was a time that the US was more neutral, I don't recall when.

That was my contention, yes.

On your last sentence, wasn’t it Kissinger who said “ America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests”

Yes, although there's a school of thought that US support of Israel is counterproductive and a function of a powerful lobby. That was either IR professor Mearsheimer or Jimmy Carter who articulated that pov.

[Guy Smiley]

How the fuck did the IDF intelligence not act on Egyptian concerns?

Bibi said 'bring it'?

[Sandstorm]

How the fuck did the IDF intelligence not act on Egyptian concerns?

Too bust in-fighting about elections. Probably exactly why (militant group) Hamas attacked them last week.

[Hugo]

On your last sentence, wasn’t it Kissinger who said “ America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests”

Looking it up Truman's recognition of Israel in 48 was said to be a consequence of his solidarity with the suffering of Jewish people in WWII. US support of Israel didn't become an article of faith in US foreign policy until JFK and it was to counterbalance the influence the Soviets had with Arab states in the ME. Tidbit - Stalin was massively pro Israel in the 40s. He thought the formation of Israel would diminish British influence in the ME.

[David in Gwent]

https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/28/wes ... n-children

^ From over a month ago. 2023 has been the deadliest year for Palestinian children being killed by Israeli military/police. Most parents and communities are going to respond when their kids are being killed by the state.

It's a sad loss of life but if it was my 17 year old "child" I'd make sure they weren't attacking military personnel, knowing that those military personnel could potentially open fire.

They weren't all throwing rocks, one lad was minding his own business en route to school. Others were shot in the back as they fled, posing no threat to the military.

the youths threw rocks or Molotov cocktails at the vehicle

- which one was it?

I think it's pretty pointless to discuss flashpoints in the run up to this weekends events, if you think the flashpoints lend credence to the attacks on civilians then that's up to you.

[Hugo]

It's a sad loss of life but if it was my 17 year old "child" I'd make sure they weren't attacking military personnel, knowing that those military personnel could potentially open fire.

They weren't all throwing rocks, one lad was minding his own business en route to school. Others were shot in the back as they fled, posing no threat to the military.

the youths threw rocks or Molotov cocktails at the vehicle

- which one was it?

I think it's pretty pointless to discuss flashpoints in the run up to this weekends events, if you think the flashpoints lend credence to the attacks on civilians then that's up to you.

The lad who dropped his siblings off at primary school then was killed walking to school himself. Its in the article.


Its not at all pointless, if 30+ kids were killed in your neck of the woods by the police locals would be bloodthirsty.

30 kids = 60 parents, 120 grandparents, dozens of siblings, aunts, uncles and cousins for whom Israeli aggression is not an abstraction but a very tangible thing.

[Line6 HXFX]

O.k., I'll ask it, did Netenyahoo allow Hamas to attack?
He did absolutely fuck all to stop them massing, people are gobsmacked that this "invasion" happenned, apparently unknown to the super paranoid Israeli security services, that probably want me arrested for even suggesting such a thing.Their security services were on holiday for 3 years.. whilst rockets were stockpiled, Hamas troops mobilised.etc .

He apparently (as you all know) had warning after warning and completely ignored them.

Why would you do that?

It seems letting things play out, whilst being 100% aware, and using the carnage to your advantage..is a common tactic of right wing authoritain assholes.

[David in Gwent]

They weren't all throwing rocks, one lad was minding his own business en route to school. Others were shot in the back as they fled, posing no threat to the military.

the youths threw rocks or Molotov cocktails at the vehicle

- which one was it?

I think it's pretty pointless to discuss flashpoints in the run up to this weekends events, if you think the flashpoints lend credence to the attacks on civilians then that's up to you.

The lad who dropped his siblings off at primary school then was killed walking to school himself. Its in the article.


Its not at all pointless, if 30+ kids were killed in your neck of the woods by the police locals would be bloodthirsty.

30 kids = 60 parents, 120 grandparents, dozens of siblings, aunts, uncles and cousins for whom Israeli aggression is not an abstraction but a very tangible thing.

When the parents in Gaza love their children more than they hate the Jews then this conflict has a chance of ending.

[Hugo]

- which one was it?

I think it's pretty pointless to discuss flashpoints in the run up to this weekends events, if you think the flashpoints lend credence to the attacks on civilians then that's up to you.

The lad who dropped his siblings off at primary school then was killed walking to school himself. Its in the article.


Its not at all pointless, if 30+ kids were killed in your neck of the woods by the police locals would be bloodthirsty.

30 kids = 60 parents, 120 grandparents, dozens of siblings, aunts, uncles and cousins for whom Israeli aggression is not an abstraction but a very tangible thing.

When the parents in Gaza love their children more than they hate the Jews then this conflict has a chance of ending.

I assume Gazan mothers love their kids like women throughout the world do.

In that vein if 30+ kids were killed in any city or region in the world over the course of a year there would be a major backlash.

[Muttonbird]

Nah, when Israel stops building settlements on occupied land this conflict has a chance of ending.

[laurent]

@Hugo Please stop responding to the potato peeling idiot

it will be better for your sanity (and ours)

[David in Gwent]

The lad who dropped his siblings off at primary school then was killed walking to school himself. Its in the article.


Its not at all pointless, if 30+ kids were killed in your neck of the woods by the police locals would be bloodthirsty.

30 kids = 60 parents, 120 grandparents, dozens of siblings, aunts, uncles and cousins for whom Israeli aggression is not an abstraction but a very tangible thing.

When the parents in Gaza love their children more than they hate the Jews then this conflict has a chance of ending.

I assume Gazan mothers love their kids like women throughout the world do.

In that vein if 30+ kids were killed in any city or region in the world over the course of a year there would be a major backlash.

I don't agree, otherwise they wouldn't let them potentially harass people carrying several magazines of 7.62 ammunition.

Whilst no doubt some poor teenagers have lost their lives in a dreadful way I wouldn't trust everything HRW reports as a fact.

The truth is, Hamas needs those kids to harass Israeli patrols, Hamas needs those young men to die. Their mothers must know this.

[Sandstorm]

@Hugo Please stop responding to the potato peeling idiot

it will be better for your sanity (and ours)

This. Please stop quoting DAC, I have him on Ignore and don't want to see his dribblings.

[Raggs]

Nah, when Israel stops building settlements on occupied land this conflict has a chance of ending.

You do realise that Gaza and the West bank are at this time, pretty much entirely separate entities right? Different governments etc.

Peace with the West bank would certainly be more possible if the government stopped the settler dicks. But that would solve nothing of the Gazan, and more significantly Hamas, issue.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

How the fuck did the IDF intelligence not act on Egyptian concerns?

Too bust in-fighting about elections. Probably exactly why (militant group) Hamas attacked them last week.

There is too the warnings come every week, probably every day. So for someone in Egypt to say we passed on concerns is true but...

Which isn't to absolve a failure of intelligence, just perhaps it's not quite as obvious as here are next weekend's winning lottery numbers

[Hugo]

@Hugo Please stop responding to the potato peeling idiot

it will be better for your sanity (and ours)

[Raggs]

So far Israel is reporting 1500 Hamas killed in Israel. That's a hell of an invasion force really.

[C69]

How the fuck did the IDF intelligence not act on Egyptian concerns?

Too bust in-fighting about elections. Probably exactly why (militant group) Hamas attacked them last week.

There is too the warnings come every week, probably every day. So for someone in Egypt to say we passed on concerns is true but...

Which isn't to absolve a failure of intelligence, just perhaps it's not quite as obvious as here are next weekend's winning lottery numbers

From what I have read it was far more clear that the intelligence was way out of kilter than the usual intel.
Your lottery analogy is quite crass and childish.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Too bust in-fighting about elections. Probably exactly why (militant group) Hamas attacked them last week.

There is too the warnings come every week, probably every day. So for someone in Egypt to say we passed on concerns is true but...

Which isn't to absolve a failure of intelligence, just perhaps it's not quite as obvious as here are next weekend's winning lottery numbers

From what I have read it was far more clear that the intelligence was way out of kilter than the usual intel.
Your lottery analogy is quite crass and childish.

At best I aim for crass and childish. Even with that I don't know where one would go for what one would hope passes for high level security information in all this.

Again not to absolve anyone, but also perhaps we can hold off on the finger pointing

[Line6 HXFX]

On hearing the warnings, nettenyahoo also moved all his security forces from the gaza strip to the west bank.


And the conspiracy theory circle is complete.

You have warnings, legit warnings....that no one would ever ignore warnings....you have ignoring of said warnings and inaction and then finally the removal of and standing down of defence forces, that would have been rather effective in stopping the enemy in their tracks.


Classic.
I'm calling it..

It's a conspiracy!!!!!!

[C69]

There is too the warnings come every week, probably every day. So for someone in Egypt to say we passed on concerns is true but...

Which isn't to absolve a failure of intelligence, just perhaps it's not quite as obvious as here are next weekend's winning lottery numbers

From what I have read it was far more clear that the intelligence was way out of kilter than the usual intel.
Your lottery analogy is quite crass and childish.

At best I aim for crass and childish. Even with that I don't know where one would go for what one would hope passes for high level security information in all this.

Again not to absolve anyone, but also perhaps we can hold off on the finger pointing

I made the analogy earlier with the resignation of Golda Meir and the military failings of the Yom Kippur War. The leader of the country should take responsibility for such failings as Meir did.
Even though she was exonerated by the Agranat Commission.

[Rhubarb & Custard]

From what I have read it was far more clear that the intelligence was way out of kilter than the usual intel.
Your lottery analogy is quite crass and childish.

At best I aim for crass and childish. Even with that I don't know where one would go for what one would hope passes for high level security information in all this.

Again not to absolve anyone, but also perhaps we can hold off on the finger pointing

I made the analogy earlier with the resignation of Golda Meir and the military failings of the Yom Kippur War. The leader of the country should take responsibility for such failings as Meir did.
Even though she was exonerated by the Agranat Commission.

I actually chortled a little at the idea Bibi might do a decent thing

[C69]

At best I aim for crass and childish. Even with that I don't know where one would go for what one would hope passes for high level security information in all this.

Again not to absolve anyone, but also perhaps we can hold off on the finger pointing

I made the analogy earlier with the resignation of Golda Meir and the military failings of the Yom Kippur War. The leader of the country should take responsibility for such failings as Meir did.
Even though she was exonerated by the Agranat Commission.

I actually chortled a little at the idea Bibi might do a decent thing

No chance.
However I am quite looking forward to watching Mirren's portrayal of Meir in the eponymous film Golda.
Always had a soft spot for her and some of her ideals.

[David in Gwent]

You learn something new every day. Hamas is an acronym for Ḥarakah al-Muqāwamah al-ʾIslāmiyyah, the "Islamic Resistance Movement"

[Fonz]

Formal war declared. I am still not sure what Hamas were at. Derail the Israeli Saudi detente? Try and spark a full war? Why would they feel now is the time for that. The Republican posturing is predictable but Christ its unfortunate for Biden the year before an election. Support for Israel is a bit more fragmented in the states than it was before but in the round they lean heavily that way: 55% to 26% support Palestine. Granted that's a high for the latter. Also that 26% is pre dead hippy girl being sat and spat on. That's so bad all the Palestinian leadership can do is pretend it wasn't them. Say it's a false flag or some Russkie type bollox. The dead granny's they can explain away but that's violently toxic. To be honest it's an image I will never have leave me. I am more nuanced than our David from.Gwent or De Santis but fuck me it's horrific

That really is startling for someone who grew up here. I actually remember the first pro-Palestinian guy I ever met — which was in college, naturally, circa 2010 — and it was like meeting a Martian. It literally did not exist when I was growing up, the only question was essentially “how pro-Israeli are you?” Perhaps another manifestation of how a shared media has bled its viewpoints to this side of the Atlantic.

As to the point of your post though, I don’t think this must necessarily have been timed with some sort of greater strategic objective in mind. It may simply have been, Israelis aren’t looking, let’s roll. Less 4D chess, more tic-tac-toe, I reckon.

Moreover, I’m fairly confident that anything that’s happening is most assuredly NOT done with American/Western opinion in mind. Maybe still foolish on their part at this particular juncture, even though our influence and power lessens (ever so slightly) by the day. Disseminating videos like that one with the girl are ultimately more about rallying the target audience, and it’s probably more likely to do that than bring about serious consequences from us. But again that’s attributing some sort of coherent logic to the actions undertaken by these elements, which…may not be warranted.

I’d rather not wade in much more deeply here, but this does tickle my geopolitical gspot so we’ll see…

[C69]

You learn something new every day. Hamas is an acronym for Ḥarakah al-Muqāwamah al-ʾIslāmiyyah, the "Islamic Resistance Movement"

I wonder if Israel realised that when they helped create and repeatedly support the murderous bastards?

[Simian]

And as usual it's the ordinary people who suffer, while Hamas will no doubt have their coffers topped up by the usual suspects

I'm not buying that line. The people of Gaza knew something like this would happen. It's not as though Hamas didn't operate from people's homes, garages, hospitals and schools.

A page before you posted this you went on a rant about how extremism can flourish and operate without the support of the masses. Now you’re saying the opposite.

You’re an incredibly offensive loon who consistently acts in bad faith.

[David in Gwent]

And as usual it's the ordinary people who suffer, while Hamas will no doubt have their coffers topped up by the usual suspects

I'm not buying that line. The people of Gaza knew something like this would happen. It's not as though Hamas didn't operate from people's homes, garages, hospitals and schools.

A page before you posted this you went on a rant about how extremism can flourish and operate without the support of the masses. Now you’re saying the opposite.

You’re an incredibly offensive loon who consistently acts in bad faith.

I think you're a bit dull. It's obvious to anyone with half a brain that extremism can do both; with the support of the masses and without, there was a whole conversation about it. I'm not the one acting in bad faith here, you are.

[goeagles]

Formal war declared. I am still not sure what Hamas were at. Derail the Israeli Saudi detente? Try and spark a full war? Why would they feel now is the time for that. The Republican posturing is predictable but Christ its unfortunate for Biden the year before an election. Support for Israel is a bit more fragmented in the states than it was before but in the round they lean heavily that way: 55% to 26% support Palestine. Granted that's a high for the latter. Also that 26% is pre dead hippy girl being sat and spat on. That's so bad all the Palestinian leadership can do is pretend it wasn't them. Say it's a false flag or some Russkie type bollox. The dead granny's they can explain away but that's violently toxic. To be honest it's an image I will never have leave me. I am more nuanced than our David from.Gwent or De Santis but fuck me it's horrific

That really is startling for someone who grew up here. I actually remember the first pro-Palestinian guy I ever met — which was in college, naturally, circa 2010 — and it was like meeting a Martian. It literally did not exist when I was growing up, the only question was essentially “how pro-Israeli are you?” Perhaps another manifestation of how a shared media has bled its viewpoints to this side of the Atlantic.

As to the point of your post though, I don’t think this must necessarily have been timed with some sort of greater strategic objective in mind. It may simply have been, Israelis aren’t looking, let’s roll. Less 4D chess, more tic-tac-toe, I reckon.

Moreover, I’m fairly confident that anything that’s happening is most assuredly NOT done with American/Western opinion in mind. Maybe still foolish on their part at this particular juncture, even though our influence and power lessens (ever so slightly) by the day. Disseminating videos like that one with the girl are ultimately more about rallying the target audience, and it’s probably more likely to do that than bring about serious consequences from us. But again that’s attributing some sort of coherent logic to the actions undertaken by these elements, which…may not be warranted.

I’d rather not wade in much more deeply here, but this does tickle my geopolitical gspot so we’ll see…

Tic tac toe indeed. There are a lot of people out there saying they don't understand the attack because what purpose does it serve Hamas? They fundamentally lack the understanding that a) Hamas will take glee in any opportunity they can to murder Jews and b) Hamas and most pro-Palestinian Arab thought is that the Jews are inherently weak and will fold under the smallest bit of pressure. These people trying to understand this conflict from a Western lens are understandably constantly confused by actions in this conflict.

[Simian]

I'm not buying that line. The people of Gaza knew something like this would happen. It's not as though Hamas didn't operate from people's homes, garages, hospitals and schools.

A page before you posted this you went on a rant about how extremism can flourish and operate without the support of the masses. Now you’re saying the opposite.

You’re an incredibly offensive loon who consistently acts in bad faith.

I think you're a bit dull. It's obvious to anyone with half a brain that extremism can do both; with the support of the masses and without, there was a whole conversation about it. I'm not the one acting in bad faith here, you are.

Can you explain what you meant in your ‘not buying it’ comment then? Specifically your assertion that the people of Gaza are complicit?

[David in Gwent]

b) Hamas and most pro-Palestinian Arab thought is that the Jews are inherently weak and will fold under the smallest bit of pressure.

That I don't understand. Literally no evidence for that line of thought.

[Line6 HXFX]

Interesting interview with the Palestinian ambassador, (not sure if posted) about how he is never invited on when Israelies kill Palestinians (200 over the last couple of months) when they wanted him to denounce Palestinians... That important israelies are never on TV to denounce themselves and their actions.

He even made the point that Israel has been holding 2 million Palestinian people hostage for 16 years.
There is a better video of this somewhere, where you can hear the awful questioning.. not just his response.