So, coronavirus...

[Jb1981]

One of the reasons for the higher toll from Covid of course.

What do you mean? That’s the higher end WHO flu estimate isn’t it and up from prior year estimates.

Is it a high or a low number historically?

High from what I can gather. The WHO revised its annual estimates up a few years ago and last year’s number is at the top end of that estimate.

[mat the expat]

One of the reasons for the higher toll from Covid of course.

What? The reason for a million covid deaths is because last year there were 500,000 flu deaths.

explain please.

You don’t want a good faith conversation.

[Mahoney]

Found this article interesting:
https://unherd.com/2020/09/has-covid-be ... dangerous/

[Biffer]

Annual estimate of global flu deaths from National Institute of Health in the US is 389,000.

Preliminary data for 19-20 flu season in the USA is that it was broadly in line with average numbers.

In the UK excess deaths were just above long term averages in December and broadly in line for January and February.

[Ovals]

Found this article interesting:
https://unherd.com/2020/09/has-covid-be ... dangerous/

Very good article.

[Saint]

Found this article interesting:
https://unherd.com/2020/09/has-covid-be ... dangerous/

Didn't tell me anything new, but it explains it better than I could

[Insane_Homer]

PHE reported deaths - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

20/09/2020 18
21/09/2020 11
22/09/2020 37
23/09/2020 37
24/09/2020 40
25/09/2020 35
26/09/2020 34
27/09/2020 17
28/09/2020 13
29/09/2020 71

Quite the jump to go with the huge recent climbing spike in positive test results, peaking @ 7,143 yesterday.

no correlation, as there's no second wave

[Blackrock Bullet]

I see you're doing that weird daily count thing.

[Biffer]

PHE reported deaths - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

20/09/2020 18
21/09/2020 11
22/09/2020 37
23/09/2020 37
24/09/2020 40
25/09/2020 35
26/09/2020 34
27/09/2020 17
28/09/2020 13
29/09/2020 71

Quite the jump to go with the huge recent climbing spike in positive test results, peaking @ 7,143 yesterday.

no correlation, as there's no second wave

To be fair here, it’s always been acknowledged that there’s under reporting at the weekends and a jump on The Tuesday (reporting for the Monday). It flattens out at thirty something looked at that way. Still an increase week to week though, and an accompanying increase in hospitalisations. Hospital admissions in Scotland up 60% in the last week.

[Openside]

what's IH's Agenda here? I am somewhat mystified why he seems to have a chubby for all this stuff.

We need to shield the infirm and the elderly and everyone else needs to get on with it. Anything else will create an even bigger problem than the virus is anyway!!

[Bimbowomxn]

PHE reported deaths - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

20/09/2020 18
21/09/2020 11
22/09/2020 37
23/09/2020 37
24/09/2020 40
25/09/2020 35
26/09/2020 34
27/09/2020 17
28/09/2020 13
29/09/2020 71

Quite the jump to go with the huge recent climbing spike in positive test results, peaking @ 7,143 yesterday.

no correlation, as there's no second wave

There’s no second wave on the figures you’ve produced .....

You not understanding and misrepresenting figures won’t change that. This will be your third or fourth attempt at a second wave having been wrong previously.

When you’re wrong again is there a chance you’ll post sensibly or is this just your thing?

[Saint]

PHE reported deaths - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

20/09/2020 18
21/09/2020 11
22/09/2020 37
23/09/2020 37
24/09/2020 40
25/09/2020 35
26/09/2020 34
27/09/2020 17
28/09/2020 13
29/09/2020 71

Quite the jump to go with the huge recent climbing spike in positive test results, peaking @ 7,143 yesterday.

no correlation, as there's no second wave

To be fair here, it’s always been acknowledged that there’s under reporting at the weekends and a jump on The Tuesday (reporting for the Monday). It flattens out at thirty something looked at that way. Still an increase week to week though, and an accompanying increase in hospitalisations. Hospital admissions in Scotland up 60% in the last week.

There's a definite increase in deaths and hospitalisations at the moment. On the 7 day rolling average, we bottomed out at 7 per day in mid August. We're now at 35. Currently the exponential curve is nowhere near as bad as mid March; the death rate is doubling every 10-14 days at the moment, whereas it was every 2-3 days back in March.

To a very large extent, that's to be expected with the second wave gieven the mitigations in place. Even before the rule of 6 and the latest measures, we now have social distancing, facemasks, sanitisation of public areas, better home hygiene, and better treatment methodology - dexamethasone, the use of mechanical intubation as a last resort rather than first, lying patients prone, etc. We also have an attempt and a track and trace scheme with much larger scale testing to support that and identify and quarantine infected people earlier.

You would be seriously worried if mortality rates were similar to mid March, when we already have these preventative, diagnostic, and treatment mitigations in place this time round - it would imply that we had completely misunderstood the way the virus works. However, despite ALL of that, deaths are still increasing, hospitalisations are increasing, etc. This is not something that's going away, and if we're getting these increases now, you can only imagine what would happen if we just lifted all the restrictions and let things go

[Un Pilier]

Some good points there Saint.

It’s obvious that numbers are rising against relevant indicators and it’s also clear that there are large numbers of people who could make more of an effort to help suppress the otherwise inevitable growth this next week or three. Some might respond to the clearly worsening situation. Others won’t.

I’m tracking the figures locally in an area that’s been doing reasonably well in the scheme of things. In some localities infections have increased more than tenfold in the past month from a low base. I see too many people not giving a bugger about their fellow citizens.

[Bimbowomxn]

Some good news.

[fishfoodie]

Some good news.

That's really, really good news, if it stands up to scrutiny. The Deep cleans etc, & PPE situation becomes less complex, if the way the virus gets transmitted, can be reduced down to one vector; aerosol droplets. We have had previous studies that showed that the virus doesn't survive will on surfaces, but this new study takes that even further.

[Fangle]

From Moderna on CNBC.

“November 25 is the time we will have enough safety data to be able to put into an EUA [emergency use authorisation] file that we would send to the FDA — assuming that the safety data is good, ie a vaccine is deemed to be safe,” Bancel told the international news publication.

[Sandstorm]

Some good points there Saint.

It’s obvious that numbers are rising against relevant indicators and it’s also clear that there are large numbers of people who could make more of an effort to help suppress the otherwise inevitable growth this next week or three. Some might respond to the clearly worsening situation. Others won’t.

I’m tracking the figures locally in an area that’s been doing reasonably well in the scheme of things. In some localities infections have increased more than tenfold in the past month from a low base. I see too many people not giving a bugger about their fellow citizens.

Many people are struggling financially at the moment, their lives are crap and listening to the wankers in the Cabinet talking shit every day is driving them to rebel.

I don’t like it, but I understand it.

[Saint]

From Moderna on CNBC.

“November 25 is the time we will have enough safety data to be able to put into an EUA [emergency use authorisation] file that we would send to the FDA — assuming that the safety data is good, ie a vaccine is deemed to be safe,” Bancel told the international news publication.

That's concerning. He shouldn't actually know when they will have enough data - only the independent observers should know that. In theory they could announce tomorrow that they're unblinfinding the study and he should be none the wiser

[Un Pilier]

Some good points there Saint.

It’s obvious that numbers are rising against relevant indicators and it’s also clear that there are large numbers of people who could make more of an effort to help suppress the otherwise inevitable growth this next week or three. Some might respond to the clearly worsening situation. Others won’t.

I’m tracking the figures locally in an area that’s been doing reasonably well in the scheme of things. In some localities infections have increased more than tenfold in the past month from a low base. I see too many people not giving a bugger about their fellow citizens.

Many people are struggling financially at the moment, their lives are crap and listening to the wankers in the Cabinet talking shit every day is driving them to rebel.

I don’t like it, but I understand it.

That’s true of some people, perhaps. But it doesn’t explain the contrary wankers who wear it like a badge and behave like complete knobheads. And it doesn’t explain the people flying in from infected areas and failing to self-quarantine. Etc. Etc.

[Enzedder]

"self-quarantine" just doesn't work. Hell, even managed quarantine is bloody difficult to get people to adhere to.

[Ovals]

"self-quarantine" just doesn't work. Hell, even managed quarantine is bloody difficult to get people to adhere to.

Not sure we have any other choice - simply too many people to do otherwise. Maybe a bigger enforcement squad, to make it much riskier for people flouting the rules - but even that would be like catching people speeding - it doesn't stop it.

[Saint]

"self-quarantine" just doesn't work. Hell, even managed quarantine is bloody difficult to get people to adhere to.

At scale, self quarantine is the only possible option. It's one thing to lock up a couple of hundred people in a hotel, but a couple of thousand? Or 30,000?

[Enzedder]

This is for our UK friends

"It’s with great sadness I have to inform all my family n friends that in the early hours of this morning my much loved turkey has passed away.
Due to the coronavirus situation the funeral will be at mine around 12.30 /1pm on the 25th December .
As we have a limit of 30 at present including the turkey so please let me know ASAP. Obviously Covid-19 restrictions will apply.
No flowers please if you would like to make a contribution things like potatoes,carrots,green veg and aunt bessie’s Yorkshire puddings will do, but if you bring alcohol that would be better.
Please note starters and puddings are already sorted xx"

[fishfoodie]

"self-quarantine" just doesn't work. Hell, even managed quarantine is bloody difficult to get people to adhere to.

Not sure we have any other choice - simply too many people to do otherwise. Maybe a bigger enforcement squad, to make it much riskier for people flouting the rules - but even that would be like catching people speeding - it doesn't stop it.

It's more that just this.

The continued idea that vulnerable people can be, "cocooned", or whatever; is transparent horseshit at this stage.

I haven't seen a single country that hasn't had devastating death tolls in these groups; & in the UKs case; the knowing transfer of untested, or worse yet; positive cases out from primary care facilities to these, "cocooned", communities; bordered on negligent manslaughter.

I can give a pass to Politicians, & Officials on a lot of things; because they were behind the learning curve as well as everyone else; but when elderly patients that they knew were Covid positive were sent back to these settings; they knew exactly what would happen.

Trying to sell this lie again now; months on; & with no significant change to the processes; isn't just negligence any more.

[Enzedder]

"self-quarantine" just doesn't work. Hell, even managed quarantine is bloody difficult to get people to adhere to.

At scale, self quarantine is the only possible option. It's one thing to lock up a couple of hundred people in a hotel, but a couple of thousand? Or 30,000?

We have built up a capacity of 3500 per week - so our Government got the airlines to reduce the number of flights per week to match this number. Oz charge their quarantinees, we charge a small number and the rest are covered.

Couldn't you guys manage ten times that number?

[Ovals]

"self-quarantine" just doesn't work. Hell, even managed quarantine is bloody difficult to get people to adhere to.

At scale, self quarantine is the only possible option. It's one thing to lock up a couple of hundred people in a hotel, but a couple of thousand? Or 30,000?

We have built up a capacity of 3500 per week - so our Government got the airlines to reduce the number of flights per week to match this number. Oz charge their quarantinees, we charge a small number and the rest are covered.

Couldn't you guys manage ten times that number?

I don't think you undersatnd the scale of it up here.

On 23 March, when the lockdown began, the government advised all British travellers to return to the UK. To get a sense of the scale of that undertaking, the average number of UK residents on overnight stays abroad on any given day was about 1.6 million (based on the latest data from January to March 2018).

And that wasn't even in the holiday season !!

[Saint]

"self-quarantine" just doesn't work. Hell, even managed quarantine is bloody difficult to get people to adhere to.

At scale, self quarantine is the only possible option. It's one thing to lock up a couple of hundred people in a hotel, but a couple of thousand? Or 30,000?

We have built up a capacity of 3500 per week - so our Government got the airlines to reduce the number of flights per week to match this number. Oz charge their quarantinees, we charge a small number and the rest are covered.

Couldn't you guys manage ten times that number?

So in April, when passenger traffic had dropped 97% at Heathrow, that number would still have required Heathrow traffic to halve again. And that was just Heathrow - not including any other airports at all, nor any cross channel ferries or Eurotunnel etc.

[Enzedder]

It would have dropped to almost zero (the short trips) if 2 weeks managed isolation followed.

Suddenly Zoom becomes far more appealing. (Bet they are all Boris voters though)

[Clogs]

what's IH's Agenda here? I am somewhat mystified why he seems to have a chubby for all this stuff.

We need to shield the infirm and the elderly and everyone else needs to get on with it. Anything else will create an even bigger problem than the virus is anyway!!

Oh fvck, you went there. Carter/Ali's Choice will be on here frothing and buzzing so hard in 3....2.....1......

[Enzedder]

We need to shield the infirm and the elderly

Seriously - how do you do that when their carers are members of the community at large?

[Bimbowomxn]

We need to shield the infirm and the elderly

Seriously - how do you do that when their carers are members of the community at large?

You pay extra money to the carers to shield as well. It costs money but can be done easily enough. We have had 6 months to organise this stuff.

[Insane_Homer]

To be fair here, it’s always been acknowledged that there’s under reporting at the weekends and a jump on The Tuesday (reporting for the Monday). It flattens out at thirty something looked at that way. Still an increase week to week though, and an accompanying increase in hospitalisations. Hospital admissions in Scotland up 60% in the last week.

Yup week to week for Tuesday's in not looking to grand.



OS - you don't like reporting of the Governments facts that MSN is ignoring? you in "It's just fearmongering corner?

[Enzedder]

We need to shield the infirm and the elderly

Seriously - how do you do that when their carers are members of the community at large?

You pay extra money to the carers to shield as well. It costs money but can be done easily enough. We have had 6 months to organise this stuff.

I reckon 95% of the carers have families and want to go home to them though.

[Northern Lights]

Found this article interesting:
https://unherd.com/2020/09/has-covid-be ... dangerous/

Very good article.

Yeah, i liked that article, very well written. The one area i would like more detail on is the "long-Covid" that unfortunately again does not have the same statistical analysis as the rest of the article and just goes for very broad generalisations:

Second, death isn’t the only negative outcome. So while death is very rare among younger people, severe disease isn’t; I personally know four people under 40 (two under 30) who got Covid and suffered for months afterward. “If you spend three weeks in ICU, you’re not going to be too happy about it even if you do survive,” says Beale. “It’s possible that you’ll make a full recovery, but a lot of people don’t. And it’s fine telling people that you’re a fit and healthy 30-year-old so you’ve got a 0.01% chance of dying, but your chance of ending up in hospital is much higher, and people don’t fancy spending a week in hospital, frightened and short of breath.”

We shouldn’t downplay the seriousness of this disease even for many people who don’t die of it. The measures and changes we’ve discussed here will reduce the number of severely affected people, as well as deaths, but to what extent is not clear.

The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up, i have though heard that others that havent gone to hospital still struggle with shortness of breath etc but it only seems to be anecdotal stuff, are there better numbers on this?

[Insane_Homer]

no correlation, as there's no second wave

There’s no second wave on the figures you’ve produced .....

[JM2K6]

I'm getting 403 Forbidden when trying to post some info for Northern Lights. Ugh.

[Slick]

Found this article interesting:
https://unherd.com/2020/09/has-covid-be ... dangerous/

Very good article.

Yeah, i liked that article, very well written. The one area i would like more detail on is the "long-Covid" that unfortunately again does not have the same statistical analysis as the rest of the article and just goes for very broad generalisations:

Second, death isn’t the only negative outcome. So while death is very rare among younger people, severe disease isn’t; I personally know four people under 40 (two under 30) who got Covid and suffered for months afterward. “If you spend three weeks in ICU, you’re not going to be too happy about it even if you do survive,” says Beale. “It’s possible that you’ll make a full recovery, but a lot of people don’t. And it’s fine telling people that you’re a fit and healthy 30-year-old so you’ve got a 0.01% chance of dying, but your chance of ending up in hospital is much higher, and people don’t fancy spending a week in hospital, frightened and short of breath.”

We shouldn’t downplay the seriousness of this disease even for many people who don’t die of it. The measures and changes we’ve discussed here will reduce the number of severely affected people, as well as deaths, but to what extent is not clear.

The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up, i have though heard that others that havent gone to hospital still struggle with shortness of breath etc but it only seems to be anecdotal stuff, are there better numbers on this?

I know 2 folk in Edinburgh, under 40, that still can't walk out the house 5 months on. That doesn't help your analysis, but it is real.

[dpedin]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

[Margin__Walker]

no correlation, as there's no second wave

There’s no second wave on the figures you’ve produced .....

That's a bloody stupid graph with no context tbf

[JM2K6]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

It's 10% of those NOT hospitalised having month+ of symptoms according to the Govt, but additionally a number of hospitalised have post-hospitalisation issues for 2 months or more following discharge from hospital.

So it's two things, really:

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time
2) People who were sick enough to go to hospital can get serious complications lasting a long time

We don't yet know what the real scale of this is, because, well, time.

Here's some more info of various sorts with some interesting numbers in there

https://patient.info/news-and-features/ ... oronavirus
https://time.com/5878448/longterm-covid ... -research/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 93848.html