_Os_ wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 9:28 pm
From memory 3rd quarter 2024 election was the longest odds at the bookies. No one was picking this date.
Going asap means the Tories lose less seats, but that's been true since they got rid of Big Dog, more true since Truss, and more true for the last year of failure. On the other hand, if they were going to go in July why not May during the council elections? That would've probably helped their council vote, people don't need to use it as a protest if there's a general election to vote in, more Tories coming out to vote for a general election too and voting in a local election who wouldn't have. As it is the Tories were nuked in local elections, and now the remaining Tory activists will have to come out and do it all over again two months later.
Reports are even some cabinet ministers were not told and learned about it the same way as everyone else.
Looks like Sunak has decided "fuck this, I'm done".
They had three indicators they were watching to go positive to tell them it was time; Inflation, Interest Rates, & Rwanda.
The Tories only control one of them, & even with inflation, they wanted it <2%, & the latest numbers aren't that good, but hey, they're "Good Enough !"
All the time the Party are looking at the polls, & the trend, & then they take a shufty at their majority .....
As you say, they should have gone in May, but they didn't have Rwanda or Inflation to pitch to their supporters then, so instead they waited, & lost another few percent to Reform, & are now praying that they can claw back some of that over the next few weeks.