The one and only UK 2024 election thread - July 4

[Sandstorm]

I think simply ousting Sunak wouldn't be enough, they would have to go thorough the process of electing a new leader, Sunak then has to go to the King to resign (and I'm sure he'll be taking the scenic route to the Palace if this happens) new pm needs to be sworn in and then finally they can ask his madge if he wouldn't mind kindly cancelling the election he just granted the day before.

So not only do they not have much time to get all this organised, it would be unprecedented in modern history and would be pretty humiliating for the king. I do hope they try it, such a stunt could give us that Canada style wipeout some of us are hoping for

No shit those shithouse Tory MPs haven’t thought this through and are just talking shit.

[assfly]

Nobody does political tragi-comedy quite like the Brits.

The press conference with him in the rain and the music in the background is straight out of The Thick Of It.

[Blackmac]

Scots calling a July election disrespectful

First week of school holidays up here, a lot of people booked on holiday. So it’s not unreasonable for people to be a bit pissed about it.

I wouldn’t say disrespectful, just another demonstration that the Tories really don’t give a fuck about Scotland.

Edit - also makes it a bit difficult as some of the buildings normally used will be understaffed and a lot of election officials, polling station staff and counters will be on holiday, so might be some problems there too.

Considering the amount of notice required, if they were to avoid school holidays that would mean we couldn't have an 'early' election until we were just about into October anyway.

[C T]

Quite amazing really that the Tories still have 20-25% of the vote, and wouldn't be at all surprised if it's more come the actual day. Who are these people?

- People who just generally like good ol fashion Tory policies. They support shrinking the state and lowering tax.
- Tory till I die. They treat politics a bit like football. Tribal. Labour have these people too of course.
- The last 14 years would have been worse under Labour! I hear this a fair bit, but never really anything to explain the statement. I've seen some graphs which I can't be bother to dig out, showing that some services got better almost year of year under Labour, and took a turn once the Tories got it. So I guess what I'm asking here is what is the reason/s would it have been worse under Labour?
- Affluent people who vote Tory because they think that's what they should do from a social standing perspective.
- Affluent people who vote Tory because their policies make them personally better off.
- Pensioners who think they will be looked after better by a Tory government.
- Military people, or people who love the military/work in defence type roles who think the Tory government looks after defence budgets better.

[Paddington Bear]

The tories are going to win around 30% of the vote. Reform isn’t real and won’t stand everywhere.

[Margin__Walker]

The tories are going to win around 30% of the vote. Reform isn’t real and won’t stand everywhere.

Yep. They'll get 30 odd % when push comes to shove. The reform number will melt away.

Labour still have a job to do here to deliver a landslide. Will be interesting to see how many LD/Green voters are prepared to vote tactically

[petej]

The tories are going to win around 30% of the vote. Reform isn’t real and won’t stand everywhere.

I'm not convinced the majority of the reform vote goes to the tories if they do stand down. Plenty just won't vote and some will go to other parties.

[Paddington Bear]

The tories are going to win around 30% of the vote. Reform isn’t real and won’t stand everywhere.

I'm not convinced the majority of the reform vote goes to the tories if they do stand down. Plenty just won't vote and some will go to other parties.

The FT was suggesting that there’s likely to be a low turnout across the board, which has very unpredictable consequences.

[Slick]

Scots calling a July election disrespectful

First week of school holidays up here, a lot of people booked on holiday. So it’s not unreasonable for people to be a bit pissed about it.

I wouldn’t say disrespectful, just another demonstration that the Tories really don’t give a fuck about Scotland.

Edit - also makes it a bit difficult as some of the buildings normally used will be understaffed and a lot of election officials, polling station staff and counters will be on holiday, so might be some problems there too.

There is also the fact that the SNP are completely skint and god knows where they are going to get campaign funds from. Also that they just made a fairly major statement yesterday that the SG are going to have to decimate public service funding, so that timing isn't great, and that the new FM was due to make a big "State of the Country" address in a couple of weeks which will now be rather overshadowed. Not to mention that he has only been in post for a couple of weeks.

Either way, it's an unfortunate use of language, just sounds like the same old moaning about everything.

[sockwithaticket]

Even if they wanted to stand everywhere I doubt Reform have a candidate for each seat.

[Slick]

Even if they wanted to stand everywhere I doubt Reform have a candidate for each seat.

I read this morning that there are 150 constituencies where the Tories haven't even selected a candidate yet!

[sockwithaticket]

Even if they wanted to stand everywhere I doubt Reform have a candidate for each seat.

I read this morning that there are 150 constituencies where the Tories haven't even selected a candidate yet!

I hadn't seen a number put on it yet, but there was definitely a lot of chatter yesterday about how unprepared they are and lack of candidates being a big component of that.

It's pretty understandable, who would want to to stand for the Tories at this election? Even long time incumbants are likely to lose their seats. That's before considering the state of the party - for literally years now we've been privy to them infighting and scrabbling with each other for positions and power. Somehow managing to get elected would reward you with being a new MP in a deeply dysfunctional opposition party.

[sturginho]

Even if they wanted to stand everywhere I doubt Reform have a candidate for each seat.

There must be a large pool of retired England cricketers who have never voted but could be convinced to stand

[tc27]

Scots calling a July election disrespectful

First week of school holidays up here, a lot of people booked on holiday. So it’s not unreasonable for people to be a bit pissed about it.

I wouldn’t say disrespectful, just another demonstration that the Tories really don’t give a fuck about Scotland.

Edit - also makes it a bit difficult as some of the buildings normally used will be understaffed and a lot of election officials, polling station staff and counters will be on holiday, so might be some problems there too.

Theres a kernel of truth in this but to be fair it should be noted the SNPs proposed date for Indyref 2 was in the school holidays too.

As we are talking about the Scottish aspect of the GE...Is the SNPs positition still that any kind of majority for the SNP will see them open Independence negotiations?

[sturginho]

No Rwanda flights before the election....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... e793aa0498

[Slick]

Scots calling a July election disrespectful

First week of school holidays up here, a lot of people booked on holiday. So it’s not unreasonable for people to be a bit pissed about it.

I wouldn’t say disrespectful, just another demonstration that the Tories really don’t give a fuck about Scotland.

Edit - also makes it a bit difficult as some of the buildings normally used will be understaffed and a lot of election officials, polling station staff and counters will be on holiday, so might be some problems there too.

Theres a kernel of truth in this but to be fair it should be noted the SNPs proposed date for Indyref 2 was in the school holidays too.

As we are talking about the Scottish aspect of the GE...Is the SNPs positition still that any kind of majority for the SNP will see them open Independence negotiations?

I think that was Humza's position but not sure Swinney has made a declaration as yet

[petej]

The tories are going to win around 30% of the vote. Reform isn’t real and won’t stand everywhere.

I'm not convinced the majority of the reform vote goes to the tories if they do stand down. Plenty just won't vote and some will go to other parties.

The FT was suggesting that there’s likely to be a low turnout across the board, which has very unpredictable consequences.

Who turns up on polling day will be important. I could easily see sunak running a similarly piss poor campaign to Theresa May.

[_Os_]

The tories are going to win around 30% of the vote. Reform isn’t real and won’t stand everywhere.

I'm not convinced the majority of the reform vote goes to the tories if they do stand down. Plenty just won't vote and some will go to other parties.

My take as well. Reform are polling where an average UKIP were, which was weak. There's not many of them to win. Polling on voter intention shows about half Reform's support will never back the Tories, they're people who always go right of the Tories or don't vote, the other half didn't all come from the Tory party. Max the Tories can get out of Reform is an additional 5%, which would get them up to 25%-ish. Given their situation this would be useful to them, huge difference between 20% and 25%.

The Tories real problem isn't Reform. It's people switching directly from them to Labour, which is where most of their lost support has gone. I would've expected the Lib Dems to be higher when Labour have a leader not seen as a threat and the Tories are seen as awful, but they haven't benefitted. If Sunak wanted to win them back he needed to focus on the economy exclusively and ignore immigration, he almost did the opposite.

[C69]

The tories are going to win around 30% of the vote. Reform isn’t real and won’t stand everywhere.

Reform has 500 candidates lined up and will hopefully split the rights vote.

[sockwithaticket]

I'm not convinced the majority of the reform vote goes to the tories if they do stand down. Plenty just won't vote and some will go to other parties.

The FT was suggesting that there’s likely to be a low turnout across the board, which has very unpredictable consequences.

Who turns up on polling day will be important. I could easily see sunak running a similarly piss poor campaign to Theresa May.

Especially if he's called the election because, as speculated, he's gone "fuck this, I'm off to California". Even fully committed he'd probably be a crap campaigner, but when his heart's not really in it?

[dpedin]

Given far too much coverage: Reform

I quite deliberately left them out. Other than providing a second right wing option to split the vote they will be an electoral irrelevance. They haven't performed in the by-elections, they didn't perform in the locals, they are a nothing protest party given a disgraceful amount of attention by right wing UK press (which is most of it).

Yeah, ultimately whilst they poll well, when push comes to shove at a GE, you'd expect a decent chunk of their support will be voting Tory.

They are not a party ... they are a limited company with 4 Directors - Farage, Tice, Oakenden and A'Zami - funded mainly by dodgy overseas donors such as Harborne. To compare them to the other political parties is erroneous, they are in effect a money laundering scheme for right wing donors to get airtime and influence, allegedly!

[Insane_Homer]

We've been in power for a long time.. We represent the change.. Labour represent more of the same.. They would carry on the failed British state which has caused so many problems.

[petej]

We've been in power for a long time.. We represent the change.. Labour represent more of the same.. They would carry on the failed British state which has caused so many problems.

Probably not wise to call something failed when you have been in charge of it for the vast majority of the previous 50 years.

[sockwithaticket]

The tories are going to win around 30% of the vote. Reform isn’t real and won’t stand everywhere.

I'm not convinced the majority of the reform vote goes to the tories if they do stand down. Plenty just won't vote and some will go to other parties.

My take as well. Reform are polling where an average UKIP were, which was weak. There's not many of them to win. Polling on voter intention shows about half Reform's support will never back the Tories, they're people who always go right of the Tories or don't vote, the other half didn't all come from the Tory party. Max the Tories can get out of Reform is an additional 5%, which would get them up to 25%-ish. Given their situation this would be useful to them, huge difference between 20% and 25%.

The Tories real problem isn't Reform. It's people switching directly from them to Labour, which is where most of their lost support has gone. I would've expected the Lib Dems to be higher when Labour have a leader not seen as a threat and the Tories are seen as awful, but they haven't benefitted. If Sunak wanted to win them back he needed to focus on the economy exclusively and ignore immigration, he almost did the opposite.

The Lib Dems have had a string of nothing leaders and struggle for media attention at the best of times, at the moment they've not really got anything of note to say. Jo Swinson was briefly interesting because of her delusional commitment to saying that the Lib Dems could win the 2019 general outright and pledging a second EU referendum. Since then? Meh. Their current 'Our Vision' section of the website is policy free and just bland positive platitudes. They also remain completely toxic to a massive chunk of millenial voters thanks to Clegg's u-turn on student fees. That's probably not really fair considering how much stuff the parties those millenials will likely end up voting for have put forward as pledges and policies only to discard them, but it's definitely a factor.

In my new boundary constituency, they're projected as the best bet to prevent a Tory from getting in, so they'll have my vote.

[Sandstorm]

The Lib Dems .......

In my new boundary constituency, they're projected as the best bet to prevent a Tory from getting in, so they'll have my vote.

Ditto

[petej]

I'm not convinced the majority of the reform vote goes to the tories if they do stand down. Plenty just won't vote and some will go to other parties.

My take as well. Reform are polling where an average UKIP were, which was weak. There's not many of them to win. Polling on voter intention shows about half Reform's support will never back the Tories, they're people who always go right of the Tories or don't vote, the other half didn't all come from the Tory party. Max the Tories can get out of Reform is an additional 5%, which would get them up to 25%-ish. Given their situation this would be useful to them, huge difference between 20% and 25%.

The Tories real problem isn't Reform. It's people switching directly from them to Labour, which is where most of their lost support has gone. I would've expected the Lib Dems to be higher when Labour have a leader not seen as a threat and the Tories are seen as awful, but they haven't benefitted. If Sunak wanted to win them back he needed to focus on the economy exclusively and ignore immigration, he almost did the opposite.

The Lib Dems have had a string of nothing leaders and struggle for media attention at the best of times, at the moment they've not really got anything of note to say. Jo Swinson was briefly interesting because of her delusional commitment to saying that the Lib Dems could win the 2019 general outright and pledging a second EU referendum. Since then? Meh. Their current 'Our Vision' section of the website is policy free and just bland positive platitudes. They also remain completely toxic to a massive chunk of millenial voters thanks to Clegg's u-turn on student fees. That's probably not really fair considering how much stuff the parties those millenials will likely end up voting for have put forward as pledges and policies only to discard them, but it's definitely a factor.

In my new boundary constituency, they're projected as the best bet to prevent a Tory from getting in, so they'll have my vote.

For the middle class millenial I suspect that the tuitions fees are now minor compared with the dislike of brexit.

[tc27]

This could well be the election that returns the LDs to having the third place in Parliament and having those two questions at PMQs. Also they will probaly be best placed to draw of disaffected Labour voters over time.

[Biffer]

Scots calling a July election disrespectful

First week of school holidays up here, a lot of people booked on holiday. So it’s not unreasonable for people to be a bit pissed about it.

I wouldn’t say disrespectful, just another demonstration that the Tories really don’t give a fuck about Scotland.

Edit - also makes it a bit difficult as some of the buildings normally used will be understaffed and a lot of election officials, polling station staff and counters will be on holiday, so might be some problems there too.

Theres a kernel of truth in this but to be fair it should be noted the SNPs proposed date for Indyref 2 was in the school holidays too.

As we are talking about the Scottish aspect of the GE...Is the SNPs positition still that any kind of majority for the SNP will see them open Independence negotiations?

I wouldn't say I absolutely agree with the point of view, but to pick the only two weeks where it's a problem in Scotland and not the rest of the country is only giving free fuel to some of the more googly eyed indy supporters to chuck on whatever bonfire they see fit.

[Biffer]

Scots calling a July election disrespectful

First week of school holidays up here, a lot of people booked on holiday. So it’s not unreasonable for people to be a bit pissed about it.

I wouldn’t say disrespectful, just another demonstration that the Tories really don’t give a fuck about Scotland.

Edit - also makes it a bit difficult as some of the buildings normally used will be understaffed and a lot of election officials, polling station staff and counters will be on holiday, so might be some problems there too.

Considering the amount of notice required, if they were to avoid school holidays that would mean we couldn't have an 'early' election until we were just about into October anyway.

Yeah, but that's the thing people can complain about - they're fine with it being a problem in Scotland but not in England.

[Biffer]

This could well be the election that returns the LDs to having the third place in Parliament and having those two questions at PMQs. Also they will probaly be best placed to draw of disaffected Labour voters over time.

Some of the wilder projections on polls had the Lib Dems as the official opposition and SNP as third biggest party. Which would mean no automatic questions for the Tory leader at PMQs

It's not going to happen but that would be hilarious

[tabascoboy]

Has to have been one of the factors in calling the GE yesterday. They can now probably rely on the cancellation of the scheme promised by Labour as one of their (and the press of course) attack lines post election. Hundreds of millions of £ well spent!

Rishi Sunak has said that no asylum seekers will be sent to Rwanda before the election under the government's deportation scheme.

It had been thought ministers would try to get the first flight off before polling day, to showcase their flagship policy on countering illegal migration.

But the PM has now said they will go "if I'm re-elected" on 4 July.

[tc27]

This could well be the election that returns the LDs to having the third place in Parliament and having those two questions at PMQs. Also they will probaly be best placed to draw of disaffected Labour voters over time.

Some of the wilder projections on polls had the Lib Dems as the official opposition and SNP as third biggest party. Which would mean no automatic questions for the Tory leader at PMQs

It's not going to happen but that would be hilarious

The Tory vote will be better than the polls IMO.

The LDs getting back to no3 will mainly be due the the number of Labour/SNP marginals in Scotland not them doing particularly well.

[Waudbee]

The Lib Dems .......

In my new boundary constituency, they're projected as the best bet to prevent a Tory from getting in, so they'll have my vote.

Ditto

Ditto.

Not a even a labour candidate standing in my constituency.

[Biffer]

This could well be the election that returns the LDs to having the third place in Parliament and having those two questions at PMQs. Also they will probaly be best placed to draw of disaffected Labour voters over time.

Some of the wilder projections on polls had the Lib Dems as the official opposition and SNP as third biggest party. Which would mean no automatic questions for the Tory leader at PMQs

It's not going to happen but that would be hilarious

The Tory vote will be better than the polls IMO.

The LDs getting back to no3 will mainly be due the the number of Labour/SNP marginals in Scotland not them doing particularly well.

Yeah, many of the drunk the US-style kool-aid and are embedded in the durrsocialismbad thinking will jump back from Reform at the last minute.

[epwc]

This is my constituency:
2019 election results

Tories 72%
Labour 12.4%
Lib Dem 11.9%
Green 3.7%

I've got a feeling it'll still be Tory

[_Os_]

The tuition fees thing was always stupid, they were brought in by Labour and increased by the Tories, and the Lib Dems ended up being blamed for all of it. The Lib Dems didn't have the media firepower the Tories have and couldn't influence any of the narrative about the coalition.

What I really meant is there's hardcore Tories, "I'll never vote Labour for any reason" types. Who when Labour have a leader not seen as a threat whilst the Tories are seen as awful and something it's hard to vote for, would normally vote Lib Dem. These aren't people who care about tuition fees. They probably don't even care about the Lib Dems or their leader. Their calculation is more "I cannot vote Tory now, if I vote Lib Dem I still haven't voted Labour and if Labour win I don't mind". Basically the classic Tory/Lib Dem swing voter.

But this time they're moving directly to Labour. Possible it goes back to the coalition and voters see the minor party in a coalition as pointless, when they can vote for the main party and not have a coalition. A lot of these voters would've voted Lib Dem in 2010 and followed it up by voting Tory in 2015.

Looks like they're now becoming Tory/Lib Dem/Labour swing voters, which is a bit mad. If Sunak wanted to win he needed to convince these people, they're mostly in the South of England and aren't voting for anyone they even slightly suspect may do anything radical with the economy (which they interpret as blowing it up). They basically do not care about immigration and culture wars and all the other stuff the Tories drone on about, they care far more about Brexit and Truss.

[S/Lt_Phillips]

First week of school holidays up here, a lot of people booked on holiday. So it’s not unreasonable for people to be a bit pissed about it.

I wouldn’t say disrespectful, just another demonstration that the Tories really don’t give a fuck about Scotland.

Edit - also makes it a bit difficult as some of the buildings normally used will be understaffed and a lot of election officials, polling station staff and counters will be on holiday, so might be some problems there too.

Considering the amount of notice required, if they were to avoid school holidays that would mean we couldn't have an 'early' election until we were just about into October anyway.

Yeah, but that's the thing people can complain about - they're fine with it being a problem in Scotland but not in England.

I suspect the Tories just didn't know the Scottish school holidays would have already started. Not so much deliberate, just ignorant.

[tabascoboy]

This is my constituency:
2019 election results

Tories 72%
Labour 12.4%
Lib Dem 11.9%
Green 3.7%

I've got a feeling it'll still be Tory

Not too different here, and since the boundary of the constituency has changed since 2019 with some exchanges of wards even harder to know which party might (very remotely) conceivably unseat the Tories for tactical voting. Will just have to go with a vote for whichever party is the most appealing in the run up, accept the Tory will retain the seat and suck it down...

CON 62%
LBD 16%
LAB 15%
GRN 7%

[Sandstorm]

Whatever happens, PLEASE NO FUCKING COALITION AGAIN!!!!

[I like neeps]

I'll be voting Lib Dem as ever as I'm a Tory Lib Dem marginal. Quite depressing as my local MP Layla Moran is a huge NIMBY but hopefully Starmer stays true to his YIMBY words and makes Moran's NIMBYism howls into the void... I'm not holding my breath of course.