So, coronavirus...

[Insane_Homer]

Clearly explain what a false positive rate of 1% would mean for test results in the UK ?

How many of the 6,000 positives from 175,000 would be indicated as wrong ?

Yup, as I suspected, Tory MP level of thickery.

If there are 6,000 positives, that number includes the false-positives, so a 1% error is 60 cases that could have been positive tests that were... false, meaning 5,940 were correct and 60 were... false-positives.

False-negatives however, can be attributed to the testing pool of 175,000, so 1% a false-negative could mean the positives could under reported and be as high as 7750.

[Bimbowomxn]

Clearly explain what a false positive rate of 1% would mean for test results in the UK ?

How many of the 6,000 positives from 175,000 would be indicated as wrong ?

Yup, as I suspected, Tory MP level of thickery.

If there are 6,000 positives, that number includes the false-positives, so a 1% error is 60 cases that could have been positive tests that were... false, meaning 5,940 were correct and 60 were... false-positives.

False-negatives however, can be attributed to the testing pool of 175,000, so 1% a false-negative could mean the positives could under reported and be as high as 7750.

Oh dear.

This is quoted for posterity, and for everyone reading posts from you in future so they can dismiss you completely.

The false positive rate is a % of the total tests not the positives.

It also cannot be offset in anyway by false negatives.



Oh dear IH , stop now.

[fishfoodie]

How did she get too and from the stations, hope she didn't take the tube.

Selfishness and stupidity is off the scale.

The worst part was getting the train home again after testing positive. Should have hired a fcuking car.

That is appalling. Total Fuckwit.

If she doesn't resign; someone needs to start a recall petition in her constituency.

[.OverThere]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

Given that the very vast majority of people who caught covid have never been tested, it means your 10% is very suspect.
The known number of people who have tested positive were largely those who were already hospitalised, so their is a probable correlation between hospitalisation and long covid. For the non hospitalised, you are left largely with untested anecdotal noise.

[Saint]

How did she get too and from the stations, hope she didn't take the tube.

Selfishness and stupidity is off the scale.

The worst part was getting the train home again after testing positive. Should have hired a fcuking car.

That is appalling. Total Fuckwit.

If she doesn't resign; someone needs to start a recall petition in her constituency.

Yeah. Getting the train down was poor, but could (of you were to be very generous) be attributed to misunderstanding. Getting the train back is beyond inexcusable. She has to resign, and the book should be thrown at her as well for breaching self quarantine.

[Slick]

It's about as irresponsible as it gets from an MP in the current climate.

Some batshit decision making.

You'd think Sturgeon would probably feel she can't let it slide with just a telling off, given criticism directed at Johnson for keeping Cummings on.

She’s had the whip removed by Blackford and Nicola has said she is very angry...

She can’t possibly stay after her rants about Cummings although the loonier SNP twitterati are trying their best to justify it

[C69]

Starting to feel pretty grim up North, some of the ICUs have half of their beds used up with Covid patients. Schools being closed for a couple of weeks because of Covid and loads of parents having to take a couple of weeks off to lool after the kids if they are sent home.

They’re lying to us about child spreading the virus.

Not a clue wtf relevance that response means in relation to my post
However I know of patients who have had tests every day for 5 days and different results every day.

[dpedin]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

Given that the very vast majority of people who caught covid have never been tested, it means your 10% is very suspect.
The known number of people who have tested positive were largely those who were already hospitalised, so their is a probable correlation between hospitalisation and long covid. For the non hospitalised, you are left largely with untested anecdotal noise.

Wasn't 'my 10%' - actually found the figure in the UK Gov Guidance published in 7 Sept which states, 'Around 10% of mild coronavirus cases who were not admitted to hospital have reported symptoms lasting more than 4 weeks'. It is not clear if this is just those who have been tested as positive or the whole population who have had the virus but I agree this might be overstating the number, who knows, but the research by Spector seems to suggest this figure isn't too far off? Whatever the true % it is a fairly significant chunk of folk and will place a burden on the NHS and the economy for quite a while over and above the more acute hospitalised cases,

[Bimbowomxn]

Starting to feel pretty grim up North, some of the ICUs have half of their beds used up with Covid patients. Schools being closed for a couple of weeks because of Covid and loads of parents having to take a couple of weeks off to lool after the kids if they are sent home.

They’re lying to us about child spreading the virus.

Not a clue wtf relevance that response means in relation to my post
However I know of patients who have had tests every day for 5 days and different results every day.

Chris Whitty stated yesterday that rates of infection in children wasn’t rising. Closing schools would imply otherwise (unless it’s teachers not social distancing).

Good to see the tests don’t work.

[Bimbowomxn]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

Given that the very vast majority of people who caught covid have never been tested, it means your 10% is very suspect.
The known number of people who have tested positive were largely those who were already hospitalised, so their is a probable correlation between hospitalisation and long covid. For the non hospitalised, you are left largely with untested anecdotal noise.

Wasn't 'my 10%' - actually found the figure in the UK Gov Guidance published in 7 Sept which states, 'Around 10% of mild coronavirus cases who were not admitted to hospital have reported symptoms lasting more than 4 weeks'. It is not clear if this is just those who have been tested as positive or the whole population who have had the virus but I agree this might be overstating the number, who knows, but the research by Spector seems to suggest this figure isn't too far off? Whatever the true % it is a fairly significant chunk of folk and will place a burden on the NHS and the economy for quite a while over and above the more acute hospitalised cases,

What ? They’re not hospitalising but placing a burden in the NHS (after 4 weeks). ?

All very dramatic.

[Slick]

I see we have the unpleasant Bimbo version this evening

[Bimbowomxn]

I see we have the unpleasant Bimbo version this evening

What’s unpleasant ? False positive rates ? Or the idea that self reported 4 week issues are somehow something to be worried about when appears cancer waiting lists are over flowing and people are dying of the lockdown? Also Chris Whitty did yesterday say child infections weren’t rising, facts seem other wise.

[MungoMan]

Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

Given that the very vast majority of people who caught covid have never been tested, it means your 10% is very suspect.
The known number of people who have tested positive were largely those who were already hospitalised, so their is a probable correlation between hospitalisation and long covid. For the non hospitalised, you are left largely with untested anecdotal noise.

? ONS reporting shows cumulative total of 141,964 hospitalised at 27/9 and 460,179 people who had lab-confirmed positive test at 1/10.

[C69]

They’re lying to us about child spreading the virus.

Not a clue wtf relevance that response means in relation to my post
However I know of patients who have had tests every day for 5 days and different results every day.

Chris Whitty stated yesterday that rates of infection in children wasn’t rising. Closing schools would imply otherwise (unless it’s teachers not social distancing).

Good to see the tests don’t work.

You think it is good that tests don't work.
Wtaf?

Seriously man take a look at yourself.

[Ovals]

I see that Mr and Mrs Trump have both tested positive and have gone into quarantine.

[Bimbowomxn]

Not a clue wtf relevance that response means in relation to my post
However I know of patients who have had tests every day for 5 days and different results every day.

Chris Whitty stated yesterday that rates of infection in children wasn’t rising. Closing schools would imply otherwise (unless it’s teachers not social distancing).

Good to see the tests don’t work.

You think it is good that tests don't work.
Wtaf?

Seriously man take a look at yourself.

You’ve had patients who have had tests for 5 days with different results every day.... that’s an accurate test ? If there’s no issue with the test You’ve discovered that the virus can come and go over night repeatedly, which would be ground breaking.

Seriously your post more than indicates there’s an issue with the test.

[Saint]

I see that Mr and Mrs Trump have both tested positive and have gone into quarantine.

So that Hydroxoclorinique really did the job then?

Seriously, what;s the bets that this is his staff conspiring to stop him from doing the next debates?

[Northern Lights]

It's about as irresponsible as it gets from an MP in the current climate.

Some batshit decision making.

You'd think Sturgeon would probably feel she can't let it slide with just a telling off, given criticism directed at Johnson for keeping Cummings on.

She’s had the whip removed by Blackford and Nicola has said she is very angry...

She can’t possibly stay after her rants about Cummings although the loonier SNP twitterati are trying their best to justify it

As one of Sturgeon's biggest critics i have a lot sympathy for her on this one, i certainly dont doubt she is trying her best to contain the virus, the SNP are going to get pelters for this idiot of an MP. She has to resign, position completely untenable and she should be whacked with an enormous fine.

[Slick]

It's about as irresponsible as it gets from an MP in the current climate.

Some batshit decision making.

You'd think Sturgeon would probably feel she can't let it slide with just a telling off, given criticism directed at Johnson for keeping Cummings on.

She’s had the whip removed by Blackford and Nicola has said she is very angry...

She can’t possibly stay after her rants about Cummings although the loonier SNP twitterati are trying their best to justify it

As one of Sturgeon's biggest critics i have a lot sympathy for her on this one, i certainly dont doubt she is trying her best to contain the virus, the SNP are going to get pelters for this idiot of an MP. She has to resign, position completely untenable and she should be whacked with an enormous fine.

Agree, Sturgeon has been nothing if not consistant on this. From what I hear the MP in question is as thick as pig shit.

[dpedin]

Given that the very vast majority of people who caught covid have never been tested, it means your 10% is very suspect.
The known number of people who have tested positive were largely those who were already hospitalised, so their is a probable correlation between hospitalisation and long covid. For the non hospitalised, you are left largely with untested anecdotal noise.

Wasn't 'my 10%' - actually found the figure in the UK Gov Guidance published in 7 Sept which states, 'Around 10% of mild coronavirus cases who were not admitted to hospital have reported symptoms lasting more than 4 weeks'. It is not clear if this is just those who have been tested as positive or the whole population who have had the virus but I agree this might be overstating the number, who knows, but the research by Spector seems to suggest this figure isn't too far off? Whatever the true % it is a fairly significant chunk of folk and will place a burden on the NHS and the economy for quite a while over and above the more acute hospitalised cases,

What ? They’re not hospitalising but placing a burden in the NHS (after 4 weeks). ?

All very dramatic.

GPs apps, diagnostic testing, medication, out patient apps, AHP support, lab time for test results, etc etc all cost money and represent a burden on the NHS. NHS is more than hospital inpatient activity but I suspect Bimbo knows this?

[dpedin]

She’s had the whip removed by Blackford and Nicola has said she is very angry...

She can’t possibly stay after her rants about Cummings although the loonier SNP twitterati are trying their best to justify it

As one of Sturgeon's biggest critics i have a lot sympathy for her on this one, i certainly dont doubt she is trying her best to contain the virus, the SNP are going to get pelters for this idiot of an MP. She has to resign, position completely untenable and she should be whacked with an enormous fine.

Agree, Sturgeon has been nothing if not consistant on this. From what I hear the MP in question is as thick as pig shit.

Lots of folk making comparisons between Ferrier twat and Cummings twat, etc. They are all twats but the difference has been in the follow up by their party leaders - Wee Nic fairly consistent and clear and Ferrier will go whereas Bumblecunt let the twat Cummings lie about his actions, helped in the cover up and left him in post and unpunished. This is what sticks in the craw!

[Un Pilier]

I see that Mr and Mrs Trump have both tested positive and have gone into quarantine.

So that Hydroxoclorinique really did the job then?

Seriously, what;s the bets that this is his staff conspiring to stop him from doing the next debates?

Well that would spare the world untold amounts of despair. I have to confess I have been unable to summon even a smidgeon of sympathy.

[dpedin]

Give this guy a follow on Twitter, he knows what he is talking about - Eric Feigl-Ding! Reports on research that shows covid19 is 2.9 times more fatal than flu in 30 year olds, 8.6 times at age 50 and 14.4 times at age 70. It is more than a bad flu!

He also refers to this article which reports on the long term impact covid19 in a sizeable chunk, again the 10% figure is quoted, of those who have had the virus and the ongoing impact on healthcare system.

https://khn.org/news/post-covid-clinics ... ronavirus/

[Biffer]

As one of Sturgeon's biggest critics i have a lot sympathy for her on this one, i certainly dont doubt she is trying her best to contain the virus, the SNP are going to get pelters for this idiot of an MP. She has to resign, position completely untenable and she should be whacked with an enormous fine.

Agree, Sturgeon has been nothing if not consistant on this. From what I hear the MP in question is as thick as pig shit.

Lots of folk making comparisons between Ferrier twat and Cummings twat, etc. They are all twats but the difference has been in the follow up by their party leaders - Wee Nic fairly consistent and clear and Ferrier will go whereas Bumblecunt let the twat Cummings lie about his actions, helped in the cover up and left him in post and unpunished. This is what sticks in the craw!

Yeah, lots of equivalency being made, although she was probably worse, travelling on public transport with a positive test and he was more hypocritical by drawing up the rules then flouting them, but the reaction by leadership is the more long term story to me.

[tc27]

Ferrier used public transport and attended work and knowingly put people at risk - Cummings drove around in his 4x4 .

I think the moral and possibly criminal liability between these two cases is quite distinct.

And of course withdrawing the whip from a nobody (and it looks like widely despised even by her own party) back bencher is quite different from sacking the principal advisor in stake terms (though I think both should be sacked). Also remember Sturgeon did not sack her CMO for breaking the rules (she did end up resigning though as I am sure Ferrier will)

Also a question of when SNP whips and the speaker knew - appears to be some discrepancy.

[SaintK]

Ferrier used public transport and attended work and knowingly put people at risk - Cummings drove around in his 4x4 .

I think the moral and possibly criminal liability between these two cases is quite distinct.

And of course withdrawing the whip from a nobody (and it looks like widely despised even by her own party) back bencher is quite different from sacking the principal advisor in stake terms (though I think both should be sacked). Also remember Sturgeon did not sack her CMO for breaking the rules (she did end up resigning though as I am sure Ferrier will)

Also a question of when SNP whips and the speaker knew - appears to be some discrepancy.

Ruth Davidson and Ian Murray gunning for that one!
Should imagine she'll be gone before the end of the day

[Sandstorm]

I see that Mr and Mrs Trump have both tested positive and have gone into quarantine.

Together? Poor woman.

[Jock42]

Ferrier used public transport and attended work and knowingly put people at risk - Cummings drove around in his 4x4 .

I think the moral and possibly criminal liability between these two cases is quite distinct.

And of course withdrawing the whip from a nobody (and it looks like widely despised even by her own party) back bencher is quite different from sacking the principal advisor in stake terms (though I think both should be sacked). Also remember Sturgeon did not sack her CMO for breaking the rules (she did end up resigning though as I am sure Ferrier will)

Also a question of when SNP whips and the speaker knew - appears to be some discrepancy.

She also said there was no reason for her to resign despite breaking the rules twice which a lot of SNP supporters seem to forget mentioning.

[SaintK]

Ferrier used public transport and attended work and knowingly put people at risk - Cummings drove around in his 4x4 .

I think the moral and possibly criminal liability between these two cases is quite distinct.

And of course withdrawing the whip from a nobody (and it looks like widely despised even by her own party) back bencher is quite different from sacking the principal advisor in stake terms (though I think both should be sacked). Also remember Sturgeon did not sack her CMO for breaking the rules (she did end up resigning though as I am sure Ferrier will)

Also a question of when SNP whips and the speaker knew - appears to be some discrepancy.

She also said there was no reason for her to resign despite breaking the rules twice which a lot of SNP supporters seem to forget mentioning.

Sturgeon pushing

I’ve spoken to Margaret Ferrier and made clear my view that she should step down as an MP. I did so with a heavy heart - she is a friend & colleague - but her actions were dangerous & indefensible. I have no power to force an MP to resign but I hope she will do the right thing.

[Jock42]

Ferrier used public transport and attended work and knowingly put people at risk - Cummings drove around in his 4x4 .

I think the moral and possibly criminal liability between these two cases is quite distinct.

And of course withdrawing the whip from a nobody (and it looks like widely despised even by her own party) back bencher is quite different from sacking the principal advisor in stake terms (though I think both should be sacked). Also remember Sturgeon did not sack her CMO for breaking the rules (she did end up resigning though as I am sure Ferrier will)

Also a question of when SNP whips and the speaker knew - appears to be some discrepancy.

She also said there was no reason for her to resign despite breaking the rules twice which a lot of SNP supporters seem to forget mentioning.

Sturgeon pushing

I’ve spoken to Margaret Ferrier and made clear my view that she should step down as an MP. I did so with a heavy heart - she is a friend & colleague - but her actions were dangerous & indefensible. I have no power to force an MP to resign but I hope she will do the right thing.

I'm talking about Calderwood. She came out in support of her in the briefings before she noticed even her more sensible fans wanted her gone.

[tc27]

Also when considering Nicola's supposed moral ascendancy over Boris remember her presumptive heir and former finance minister is still drawing a full MSP's salary despite being forced to resign as a minister for trying to groom a 16 year old boy.

[Jock42]

Also when considering Nicola's supposed moral ascendancy over Boris remember her presumptive heir and former finance minister is still drawing a full MSP's salary despite being forced to resign as a minister for trying to groom a 16 year old boy.

Thats only bad if you're a Tory though

[tc27]

[Biffer]

Also when considering Nicola's supposed moral ascendancy over Boris remember her presumptive heir and former finance minister is still drawing a full MSP's salary despite being forced to resign as a minister for trying to groom a 16 year old boy.

She can't force him to resign. It'd be a bad place to be if a prime minister or first minister could force an MP to leave their seat. There is a mechanism for constituents to do it.

[Northern Lights]

Ferrier used public transport and attended work and knowingly put people at risk - Cummings drove around in his 4x4 .

I think the moral and possibly criminal liability between these two cases is quite distinct.

And of course withdrawing the whip from a nobody (and it looks like widely despised even by her own party) back bencher is quite different from sacking the principal advisor in stake terms (though I think both should be sacked). Also remember Sturgeon did not sack her CMO for breaking the rules (she did end up resigning though as I am sure Ferrier will)

Also a question of when SNP whips and the speaker knew - appears to be some discrepancy.

Was Cummings Covid positive at the time, i didnt think he was? Thought it was more he drove north when he shouldnt have with some bullshit about eyesight.

[tc27]

Also when considering Nicola's supposed moral ascendancy over Boris remember her presumptive heir and former finance minister is still drawing a full MSP's salary despite being forced to resign as a minister for trying to groom a 16 year old boy.

She can't force him to resign. It'd be a bad place to be if a prime minister or first minister could force an MP to leave their seat. There is a mechanism for constituents to do it.

She can express an opinion that he should resign as she's done in the case of her own MP.

Instead he gets paid for months for essentially doing nothing (he no longer attends) and a nice golden goodbye next spring.

[Sandstorm]

Ferrier used public transport and attended work and knowingly put people at risk - Cummings drove around in his 4x4 .

I think the moral and possibly criminal liability between these two cases is quite distinct.

And of course withdrawing the whip from a nobody (and it looks like widely despised even by her own party) back bencher is quite different from sacking the principal advisor in stake terms (though I think both should be sacked). Also remember Sturgeon did not sack her CMO for breaking the rules (she did end up resigning though as I am sure Ferrier will)

Also a question of when SNP whips and the speaker knew - appears to be some discrepancy.

Was Cummings Covid positive at the time, i didnt think he was? Thought it was more he drove north when he shouldnt have with some bullshit about eyesight.

Good point. Cummings broke lockdown rules only at that time. He never had Covid19 (unfortunately).

[MSG#]

Ferrier used public transport and attended work and knowingly put people at risk - Cummings drove around in his 4x4 .

I think the moral and possibly criminal liability between these two cases is quite distinct.

And of course withdrawing the whip from a nobody (and it looks like widely despised even by her own party) back bencher is quite different from sacking the principal advisor in stake terms (though I think both should be sacked). Also remember Sturgeon did not sack her CMO for breaking the rules (she did end up resigning though as I am sure Ferrier will)

Also a question of when SNP whips and the speaker knew - appears to be some discrepancy.

She also said there was no reason for her to resign despite breaking the rules twice which a lot of SNP supporters seem to forget mentioning.

Sturgeon pushing

I’ve spoken to Margaret Ferrier and made clear my view that she should step down as an MP. I did so with a heavy heart - she is a friend & colleague - but her actions were dangerous & indefensible. I have no power to force an MP to resign but I hope she will do the right thing.

Blackford drove all the way to Skye before self isolating, what has she got against Ferrier?

[Bimbowomxn]

Give this guy a follow on Twitter, he knows what he is talking about - Eric Feigl-Ding! Reports on research that shows covid19 is 2.9 times more fatal than flu in 30 year olds, 8.6 times at age 50 and 14.4 times at age 70. It is more than a bad flu!

He also refers to this article which reports on the long term impact covid19 in a sizeable chunk, again the 10% figure is quoted, of those who have had the virus and the ongoing impact on healthcare system.

https://khn.org/news/post-covid-clinics ... ronavirus/

The fatality figures for 30 year olds is nonsense if you look at European statistics.

[Slick]

Also when considering Nicola's supposed moral ascendancy over Boris remember her presumptive heir and former finance minister is still drawing a full MSP's salary despite being forced to resign as a minister for trying to groom a 16 year old boy.

She can't force him to resign. It'd be a bad place to be if a prime minister or first minister could force an MP to leave their seat. There is a mechanism for constituents to do it.

She can express an opinion that he should resign as she's done in the case of her own MP.

Instead he gets paid for months for essentially doing nothing (he no longer attends) and a nice golden goodbye next spring.

Also came out yesterday that he was drawing expenses for his Edinburgh flat and cleaning bills. Good lad....