Saffers

[Sards]

Congratulations Bulls on South African Shield. Great growth this year.

[_Os_]

I don’t think Ramaphosa wants door #2, but it will possibly be the least “painful” option for him politically.

Partnering with the DA will cost what remains of the ANC too many votes that will go directly to MK.

And MK will demand Ramaphosa’s head as the first condition of any coalition.

So I think EFF and PA is most likely. The EFF is weakened and on the back foot. They will not be in a strong bargaining position and Malema and Ramaphosa will see the Zulu threat for both their parties and need to take action. PA will be hangers-on and get something to enrich themselves in the process.

Very bad for SA in the short term. Nothing will get fixed and the markets will punish the decision, but it’s part of the growing pains we have to go through unfortunately.

You are probably correct.

Door one is risky, impossible to know how much support could be lost it's a hard choice. This is the difference between a good leader and a rubbish one. If the ANC sheds supporters who don't want to work with the DA and it still has something capable of forming a government in coalition (would need 25%), then that could work out better for them long term. Basically they get rid of their loonies, and are then forced to actually try and make things work with the DA. It would be a long term thing, maybe for decades.

Door two is the easier choice and seems lower risk. But there's a risk of the opposite, they lose their more clued up supporters in urban areas and go further under than had they picked door one. The SA electorate is reacting to failing governance. EFF, MK, apathy, it's all about ANC failure. They're hardly going to add support by going with the EFF and PA (what I see as the most likely). Instead it's a mess and they end up back at this choice but in a worse position.

They really should go door one, but as you say it seems unlikely. We'll go round this loop until they're serious about door one. Big risks for the DA too, but if the DA is serious about fixing this mess the electorate hasn't given them a better option.

[Monk]

i believe they will go with the DA. The economic benefits are immediate and should translate to citizens being less stressed.

The other option has them involved in personality politics and they simply don't have the personalities.

[Sards]

Whatever happens needs to happen soon. The economy is in neutral currently

[_Os_]

i believe they will go with the DA. The economic benefits are immediate and should translate to citizens being less stressed.

The other option has them involved in personality politics and they simply don't have the personalities.

The DA discussion (the mostly public one, no clue about the private one among leaders) has progressed to what type of deal would be best and have a chance of working. It seems entirely possible the DA will do it, probably with a minimal deal.

The problem is the ANC is very messy. There's people in the ANC working with the EFF/Malema seeking to benefit from an ANC-EFF coalition.

As Sardy says the markets/economy is another factor. They don't want the EFF/Malema.

It's a massive moment. The best choice for the country is obvious. Pick the wrong one and at least all the stuff about the ANC being part of the solution not the problem can finally end.

[Sards]

I would expect the end of cadre deployment to be the sticky part of any deal they hope to make. Let's be honest. You can't run a country successfully unless you have competent people in decision making roles.BEEE is far less important. It can work if run properly with proper checks and balances and it must create employment

[Blake]

i believe they will go with the DA. The economic benefits are immediate and should translate to citizens being less stressed.

The other option has them involved in personality politics and they simply don't have the personalities.

When presented with 2 options the ANC of the last 2 decades has had a pretty solid track record of choosing the bad one.

I hope you are right, but I have zero confidence in them swallowing their pride and having any political courage.

[_Os_]

I have stumbled across an old friend whilst following the most complicated period in the politics of post-94 SA. I have discovered Rubber Stamp's Twitter account.

20k Tweets since November 2022, 115 followers. It's quite mad. Seems to be on the MK train and supporting Russia, but it's hard to tell. He always was a JZ fan.

[Sandstorm]

I have stumbled across an old friend whilst following the most complicated period in the politics of post-94 SA. I have discovered Rubber Stamp's Twitter account.

20k Tweets since November 2022, 115 followers. It's quite mad. Seems to be on the MK train and supporting Russia, but it's hard to tell. He always was a JZ fan.

[OomStruisbaai]

Rubbertjie.

[assfly]

What a bonkers few days. I spent the best part of Sunday reading newspapers about the results, and I still can't get my head around it.

I really hope it's a DA ANC coalition, surely they must know it's the best option for them. Surely!

[Blake]

What a bonkers few days. I spent the best part of Sunday reading newspapers about the results, and I still can't get my head around it.

I really hope it's a DA ANC coalition, surely they must know it's the best option for them. Surely!

One has to wonder how aggressive the DAs terms are going to be and the ANC will be willing to stomach them…

Unfortunately my gut feeling is that they won’t and are going to gamble with the EFF.

[LoveOfTheGame]

What a bonkers few days. I spent the best part of Sunday reading newspapers about the results, and I still can't get my head around it.

I really hope it's a DA ANC coalition, surely they must know it's the best option for them. Surely!

One has to wonder how aggressive the DAs terms are going to be and the ANC will be willing to stomach them…

Unfortunately my gut feeling is that they won’t and are going to gamble with the EFF.

I'm afraid you are spot on Blakey. How does it work though, even combined the ANC and EFF won't have enough to get over the 50% mark? I take it another smaller party will also join the coalition? An ANC/EFF coalition probably means I need to seriously consider me and my family's future in this country. Pretty grim prospects for everybody concerned.

[Blake]

What a bonkers few days. I spent the best part of Sunday reading newspapers about the results, and I still can't get my head around it.

I really hope it's a DA ANC coalition, surely they must know it's the best option for them. Surely!

One has to wonder how aggressive the DAs terms are going to be and the ANC will be willing to stomach them…

Unfortunately my gut feeling is that they won’t and are going to gamble with the EFF.

I'm afraid you are spot on Blakey. How does it work though, even combined the ANC and EFF won't have enough to get over the 50% mark? I take it another smaller party will also join the coalition? An ANC/EFF coalition probably means I need to seriously consider me and my family's future in this country. Pretty grim prospects for everybody concerned.

I think Ox had it spot on. The ANC will likely form a coalitions with the EFF and Patriotic Alliance.

ANC + EFF + PA = 40% + 9.5% +2% = 51.5%

EFF will probably insist on Malema being Vice-President, and the PA will extract a one or two Ministerial positions in the negotiations.

[assfly]

I think CR would probably prefer the DA, but I guess it comes down to how much (or little) leverage he has in the decision.

I wonder if an ANC+DA+IFP coalition could work. That way they would have some clout to counter the MK in KZN.

[bok_viking]

For me if it ends up with an ANC/EFF coalition I think my return to SA will be short lived. I will head back to Asia or maybe Costa Rica. That coalition will be disastrous and I can see our economy finally collapsing in a Zimbabwe fashion under that coalition. The EFF will definitely want to have the permission to take farms/property/businesses any way they can as part of the agreement to join such a coalition apart from Malema being made Vice president. Not to mention that the EFF likes Soviet era economic practices. The EFF is just the back version of the AWB.

[average joe]

It's not possible for the DA to go into an official coalition with the ANC. The DA's policies are the polar opposite of the ANC's. They will bicker and fight over everything and nothing will get done. The NHI will be the first major point of contention and will probably break any coalition between the two.

For me this election was not about getting the ANC out completely. I felt it was important for the DA to get key provinces. If at least they can take Gauteng, it will be something.
The ANC can take any coalition with EFF or MK, add in the PA ex-con gangsters and the DA is shut out completely except for in the WC. The DA's potential coalition partners are pissant parties who won't be enough the get them over the threshold.

The PA said that they only want the position of home affairs and the rest they don't care about. Chasing out foreigners was a big part of their manifesto.

The EFF wants Ramaphosa out, Malema as the vice president and Shivambu as the minister of finance. The reserve bank will become the next VSB.

Zuma won't work with Ramaphosa. He would want to be president, so he can finish what he started before he dies.

[bok_viking]

I saw statistics that showed that 17% of the population pays 90% of the income tax in SA. I can imagine if the ANC/EFF/MK parties do form a coalition, that that 17% will reduce quite a bit over the next 5 years, As those are the people that can emigrate a lot easier due to their skills and/or funds.

[_Os_]

It's not possible for the DA to go into an official coalition with the ANC. The DA's policies are the polar opposite of the ANC's. They will bicker and fight over everything and nothing will get done. The NHI will be the first major point of contention and will probably break any coalition between the two.

The parties being very different can work out well too. They won't be taking voters from each other because they're not in competition. Fucking no one voting DA is ever going to vote ANC, no matter what happens. This is the main problem with the ANC-EFF-MK coalitions, they're fishing in the same pond.

DA people have been talking about a confidence and supply arrangement, in support of an ANC minority government. This is not a full formal coalition, the DA would remain the official opposition and would control no ministries. The DA would agree to vote with the minority ANC government on motions of no confidence in Ramaphosa/the government (the confidence), they would also agree to vote in support of the government's budget (the supply). This is the minimum needed to sustain any government. For this they would want something in return, lets say a full turning back on EWC and NHI. Everything else gets done on a case by case basis. The ANC could try and use other parties to get legislation over the line, but those smaller parties are less reliable than the DA (maybe EFF or MK says they'll give confidence and supply but then refuse to), if they keep doing that on things they agreed with the DA they wouldn't then they risk collapsing the deal.

There are downsides. Less stable government, especially if the minority government are morons and not careful in how they act. Both sides may not feel they're getting what they really want. Most DA supporters just want to see the end of BEE and all the other racism, cadre deployment, and their taxes actually helping the country develop. This will be well short of that, could see some movement on less waste of taxes though, the ANC is now in a competitive situation they'll be more motivated.

The EFF wants Ramaphosa out, Malema as the vice president and Shivambu as the minister of finance. The reserve bank will become the next VSB.

Malema has said he will work with Ramaphosa, he's done that to differentiate himself from MK to stand a better chance of forming a coalition with the ANC.

[_Os_]

For me if it ends up with an ANC/EFF coalition I think my return to SA will be short lived. I will head back to Asia or maybe Costa Rica. That coalition will be disastrous and I can see our economy finally collapsing in a Zimbabwe fashion under that coalition. The EFF will definitely want to have the permission to take farms/property/businesses any way they can as part of the agreement to join such a coalition apart from Malema being made Vice president. Not to mention that the EFF likes Soviet era economic practices. The EFF is just the back version of the AWB.

Open question how long any version of ANC-EFF-MK could survive. It's not a minor thing that they're directly competing for the same voters and will seek to outbid eachother. We're not talking about people with excellent career prospects, we're talking about people who when the EFf and MK take their seats have a family they can no longer support because there's no income.

The ANC is in this situation because they failed, the economic performance of SA is well below potential. The ANC know it too, years ago people wondered if they would try to fight their way out of losing an election, as in a military coup. They graciously accepted their fate (I always thought that route was more likely).

If a version of ANC-EFF-MK happens and the outbidding starts. The economy is going to be hit hard by the markets. At that point many in the ANC will say "we're in this situation because we failed on the economy, now the economy is really fucked, the DA offered us a better deal than this". As soon as ANC-EFF-MK hits a bump in the road, there'll be people in the ANC demanding an ANC-DA deal.

[Blake]

The EFF wants Ramaphosa out, Malema as the vice president...

Prior to the rise of MK I would've agreed with you. But I think both of them are suddenly acutely aware of how powerful the Zulu voting block is when it is mobilized against their respective organizations. MK ate ANC and EFF votes.

MK is a such a big threat (at least until it implodes) that I think they will be willing to put their animosity towards one another to the side for a political win. They both need one, and if the ANC can remain in power and if Malema can get the VP seat, they can both claim a win.

Bad for SA, but I can see it happening unfortunately.

But maybe the DA can manage something akin to what Ox suggested, agreeing to shield the Ramaphosa and the ANC from votes of no confidence, and push through some budget votes, but other than that we will have a lame duck government for the election cycle without the votes to do anything major. Given the situation, and how unlikely a proper ANC-DA coalition would be, this might be the best outcome for now.

[Sandstorm]

Vice President Julius Malema. Try saying that 3 times without puking in your mouth

[_Os_]

This is a must read, Coetzee is on the DA's negotiating team.

To me reading between the lines he wants a full coalition with the ANC, where he extracts massive concessions from the ANC and locks them into a deal. Two things to know about Coetzee's CV:

1. He was involved with taking the DA into a coalition with the NNP (for obvious reasons no one shouts about this much now). It was that deal which destroyed the Nats and made things much easier for the DA (they eliminated a competent rival). It wasn't the end of apartheid or the ANC which destroyed the Nats.

2. He joined the Lib Dems in the UK, after they had made their coalition deal with the Tories. He had no input into the deal, but ended up the main Lib Dem brain. He saw what happens when a party fails to extract concessions from the other side, the Lib Dems were destroyed by their own voters at the next election.

RYAN COETZEE: Parties in centrist coalition will have to swallow policies they detest
International experience worth taking into account if ANC and DA agree to share power
03 JUNE 2024 - 05:00
by RYAN COETZEE

Thirty years from the dawn of democracy, SA finds itself facing an existential choice once more. One path leads to disaster. The other might — just might — provide the country with the Better Life for All it voted for three decades ago.

That we face a choice at all is cause for hope. So accustomed are we to expecting the worst that we fail, sometimes, to celebrate the best.

Consider this: after 30 years, the ANC has lost its majority and responded maturely. Yes, it is surprised — indeed shocked — but it has accepted the results without hesitation. From the military we have not heard a peep. There are no protests on the streets.

Meanwhile, having positioned itself as the ANC’s most intractable opposition for three decades, the DA has responded to the new reality with openness and pragmatism, declaring its willingness to consider a future in which it and others share power with the ANC. Things could be very much worse.

But before discussions with the DA and other constitutionalists can begin in earnest, the ANC must choose to reject a future that involves the EFF and MK.


The choice is existential, for itself and the country. And it is a choice only the national executive committee (NEC) can make. While it deliberates, SA waits, and hopes.

It is critical to understand just how existential the moment is. What the EFF plans to do with SA is well known: it has a populist agenda that will destroy the economy. MK, by contrast, has behaved with all the hallmarks of a party inspired by Vladimir Putin or as Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla put it in a tweet, “President Putin, ♥ ♥ ♥”. When asked what MK’s plan for the country was, she said, “The same kind of government that we had under president Zuma — those nine amazing years. Very similar.” Or put another way: a country run by kleptocratic ethnic chauvinists. A disaster for everyone except those with access to public money.

For the DA, the conundrum is different but equally existential: on the one hand, it feels it cannot stand by and watch as SA slides ever deeper into poverty, unemployment, crime and corruption. And it would indeed be a gross betrayal of its own supporters to campaign to “Rescue SA” and then, when given a chance to do so, turn tail and run.

Plausible deniability

On the other hand, entering a power-sharing arrangement with the ANC is fraught with risk. Will it be lashing itself to an organisation that can’t — or won’t — do what it takes to turn SA around, and thus expose itself to electoral devastation at the hands of those who keep their distance, but with nothing to show for it? What it will seek to do is find a way to protect SA from MK and the EFF while protecting itself from an electoral savaging. It won’t be easy. But it must try.

There is more than one way to proceed for the DA. It could stay out of government while offering parliamentary support for Cyril Ramaphosa as president and voting his government a budget, in exchange for specific policy concessions. Whether this approach would be acceptable to the ANC is unknown, and whether it would give the DA the plausible deniability it seeks if things go badly is doubtful. But it is an option.

Another is a full coalition, in which the DA and some other opposition parties take seats in the cabinet and agree a foundational policy agenda with the ANC. It would mean taking responsibility for the performance of at least some parts of government, and given the circumstances it might be extremely difficult to succeed. But it, too, is an option.

Whatever transpires, if the DA and the ANC do find themselves in a power-sharing arrangement, there is international experience worth taking into account.

I took up a post as director of strategy to the UK’s deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, in October 2012. Clegg had led the Liberal Democrats into government in 2010 as the smaller partner in a coalition with Britain’s Conservatives. He had learnt a lot about the challenges of coalition government by the time I arrived, and I quickly caught up. Of course, SA is not Britain, and the protagonists are nothing like each other, despite some superficial similarities, but the dynamics of sharing power are in many respects the same.

Red lines

Power-sharing is hard. It requires more skill, effort and resilience than single-party governments, and not just for leaders and their parties. It demands a lot of citizens too. Certainly, it’s hard not getting everything you want. Much more painfully, it also requires parties and their supporters to accept policies they deeply detest. If they are not prepared to, they will either “red line” themselves out of sharing power before it even begins, or the agreement they reach will disintegrate in acrimony.

Some lines are indeed red, and cannot be crossed. There is no point making an agreement that cannot deliver a positive outcome for the country. But party leaders should be honest with their troops, many of whom will be asked to do something very difficult: learn to work with the enemy.

Success depends largely on ensuring the public has adequate sight of the give and take that goes on behind the scenes. Party supporters will only accept the things that feel like betrayal if they experience the things that feel like triumph. And some will never accept any of it at all. Leading in this environment requires exceptional communication skills and an acceptance on both sides of government that the other party has a constituency it needs to take along. If there is a coalition, both Ramaphosa and leader of the opposition, John Steenhuisen, will have their work cut out.

So, can SA be governed from the centre by parties that represent a majority of black, white, coloured and Indian South Africans, or will the forces of racial and ethnic nationalism always win out in the end?

Can the dream of 1994 and the constitutional dispensation that underpins it become a sustainable reality for South Africans, or are we destined always to compete as groups in a zero-sum game that no-one ever wins? Perhaps the next two weeks will give us an answer.

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opini ... ey-detest/

[Blake]

For me if it ends up with an ANC/EFF coalition I think my return to SA will be short lived. I will head back to Asia or maybe Costa Rica. That coalition will be disastrous and I can see our economy finally collapsing in a Zimbabwe fashion under that coalition. The EFF will definitely want to have the permission to take farms/property/businesses any way they can as part of the agreement to join such a coalition apart from Malema being made Vice president. Not to mention that the EFF likes Soviet era economic practices. The EFF is just the back version of the AWB.

Open question how long any version of ANC-EFF-MK could survive. It's not a minor thing that they're directly competing for the same voters and will seek to outbid eachother. We're not talking about people with excellent career prospects, we're talking about people who when the EFf and MK take their seats have a family they can no longer support because there's no income.

The ANC is in this situation because they failed, the economic performance of SA is well below potential. The ANC know it too, years ago people wondered if they would try to fight their way out of losing an election, as in a military coup. They graciously accepted their fate (I always thought that route was more likely).

If a version of ANC-EFF-MK happens and the outbidding starts. The economy is going to be hit hard by the markets. At that point many in the ANC will say "we're in this situation because we failed on the economy, now the economy is really fucked, the DA offered us a better deal than this". As soon as ANC-EFF-MK hits a bump in the road, there'll be people in the ANC demanding an ANC-DA deal.

It will be interesting to see if there are any high profile defectors from the ANC to MK in the coming weeks. The ANC has lost so many seats, and are so broke, that those that were at the bottom of the lists will not be able to sustain their lifestyles.

The MK meanwhile has no experience, and probably have more seats than they have qualified people to fill them. It will be interesting to see which of the rats are going to jump.

[Sandstorm]

No chance the ANC will make the right choice of partner now after 30 years of making the wrong one.

[_Os_]

Another is a full coalition, in which the DA and some other opposition parties

This is the critical line which gives the DA strategy away. He didn't need to include this, it is odd to say other parties would be in a coalition between the ANC and DA.

What the DA aims to do is this. They want competent potential opponents in the deal with them. Parties who are fishing for the same voters as the DA. They do not want the FF+ popping up in 2029 saying "these people are in bed with the ANC!", whilst the FF+ stayed out of the deal and didn't try to avoid the disaster of ANC-EFF-MK.

So we're actually looking at something like ANC-DA-FF+-ACDP-IFP. As the DA's preferred option, probably BOSA and Rise too, anything which could be a threat to the DA.

Of course, SA is not Britain, and the protagonists are nothing like each other, despite some superficial similarities

Classic bit of trolling here. Coetzee is known to think the Tories and ANC are similar organisations.

[_Os_]

It will be interesting to see if there are any high profile defectors from the ANC to MK in the coming weeks. The ANC has lost so many seats, and are so broke, that those that were at the bottom of the lists will not be able to sustain their lifestyles.

The MK meanwhile has no experience, and probably have more seats than they have qualified people to fill them. It will be interesting to see which of the rats are going to jump.

Like I posted, it'll definitely happen. There'll be violence too.

I doubt the ANC has come to terms with it yet. But if MK holds together the ANC will hardly exist in KZN, southern Mpumalanga, and parts of Gauteng. The DA will be larger than the ANC there.

That's the limit to MK's growth. It's a Zulu nationalist party so it is capped at 20%-30%. But the immediate scale of the party in under a year shows they're capable of taking that. Once all the obvious moves play out, ANC rats joining MK as the ship sinks, some violence, the ANC are at 35%-ish and totally removed from a second province. They'll be extinct in WC and KZN.

I've been watching some SABC, don't rate any of the analysts just want to see what they're saying. Stone cold facts like KZN is the most anti-ANC province now, more than the WC ... have not sunk in. Some interviews with random guys speaking isiZulu on a taxi rank in Durban are pretty much saying that. Then the analysts back in the studio ignore what they're saying.

[Blake]

Stone cold facts like KZN is the most anti-ANC province now, more than the WC ... have not sunk in. Some interviews with random guys speaking isiZulu on a taxi rank in Durban are pretty much saying that. Then the analysts back in the studio ignore what they're saying.

Things have pretty much reset back to 1994 in a sense:


The parties have changed names, or fractured, but:
ANC still very strong in Limpopo and Eastern Cape, solid in Freestate and North West, and just holding on in the Northern Cape.
All the Zulu voters that Zuma brought to the ANC have followed him away, bit didn't go back to the IFP. And the ANC lost a bunch of others as well.
Western Cape votes went from NP to DA.

Gauteng is the big mover where the ANC's 57% in 1994 has eroded to 34.5%...which has mostly gone to EFF and MK.

So ja, 30 years later and not much has really changed. The ANC has just splintered into 3 factions. Quite depressing actually.

[bok_viking]

Stone cold facts like KZN is the most anti-ANC province now, more than the WC ... have not sunk in. Some interviews with random guys speaking isiZulu on a taxi rank in Durban are pretty much saying that. Then the analysts back in the studio ignore what they're saying.

Things have pretty much reset back to 1994 in a sense:


The parties have changed names, or fractured, but:
ANC still very strong in Limpopo and Eastern Cape, solid in Freestate and North West, and just holding on in the Northern Cape.
All the Zulu voters that Zuma brought to the ANC have followed him away, bit didn't go back to the IFP. And the ANC lost a bunch of others as well.
Western Cape votes went from NP to DA.

Gauteng is the big mover where the ANC's 57% in 1994 has eroded to 34.5%...which has mostly gone to EFF and MK.

So ja, 30 years later and not much has really changed. The ANC has just splintered into 3 factions. Quite depressing actually.

The problem for the DA is that many black voters still see them as a pro-white party that is only interested in what is good for the white people of SA. You just have to look at all the comments on the internet related to a possible coalition between the ANC and DA and you can see that a lot of people think if it happens, the ANC will sell out the country to white domination. Unfortunately people like Steenhuisen are not that good in eroding those fears in the way they bring their message across. They also seem to think that the DA will sell out to the USA and Israel (the oppressors) if they get more power.

[_Os_]

That's some terrible analysis there Blakey!

It's a very different set of voters now compared to 1994. People die and young people start voting. Because of voter apathy it's much harder to get votes now than in '94, everyone able voted back then, it's still the biggest turnout despite the population being smaller then.

NP back in '94: NP had the white voters other than the 420k who voted FF and the 340k who voted DP, about half the coloured voters, no Indian voters, no black voters. It was also the fucking NP, sending them into the dustbin was something white and coloured voters should get some credit for.

DA in 2024: The coalition of voters backing the DA is much larger than the one which backed the NP in '94, despite the percentage of the vote and some of the geography being similar. DA support is split roughly into thirds white/coloured/black, with Indians in there too. Some apathy among white/coloured/Indian voters is hidden by the DA's growth among black voters. Far more black people voted DA than the parties trying to be a "black DA" put together (Rise, BOSA, ASA, UIM). 1999 was the breakthrough elections, DA voters deserve some credit for sticking with it through a quarter of a century of voting without a hope of being in government. That's next level stubborn. In a lot of countries those voters give up well before now and the country ends up worse off.

ANC back in '94: People actually believed in them. The only people who didn't voted FF or DP.

ANC in 2024: No one believes in them now, even the ANC itself seems tired of it all. 2 million less people are voting ANC-EFF-MK than voted ANC alone in '94. Basically no way they can avoid shedding more voters whatever they do, smaller more narrow coalition of voters than in '94.

[Sards]

The best thing is that there are suddenly a lot of Indian refugees flooding into the Cape from Durban. Nothing better than a proper Durban curry

[_Os_]

The problem for the DA is that many black voters still see them as a pro-white party that is only interested in what is good for the white people of SA. You just have to look at all the comments on the internet related to a possible coalition between the ANC and DA and you can see that a lot of people think if it happens, the ANC will sell out the country to white domination. Unfortunately people like Steenhuisen are not that good in eroding those fears in the way they bring their message across. They also seem to think that the DA will sell out to the USA and Israel (the oppressors) if they get more power.

No party can win every voter. You have to focus on the voters you can win and only them.

The haters are going to hate. Those people are really just saying they're never going to vote DA and will always find a reason not to do so. I've been hearing this stuff about "tone" regarding the DA my entire life. The tone police could've voted for Cope, or Maimane when he was DA leader in 2019, or Rise/BOSA/ASA this time around, but they refused to do so ... maybe they're not being entirely honest about tone. What it's really about is people disliking being told the truth about the ANC, because they take it as a personal attack on their identity which is tied up with the ANC and their race. Rather than questioning if that's a healthy identity to have, they attack the DA for giving them the straight truth. "Fight Back!" against the ANC the 1999 DP election campaign, was said to be the wrong tone. "Stop Zuma!" the 2009 DA election campaign, was said to be the wrong tone. It was all just fucking correct. The people that moan are never voting DA.

The racists are crying because they genuinely think the EFF or MK or whoever else are automatically entitled to be larger than the DA, because in their minds the DA is white and should be small and defeated. They also cannot get their heads around the idea that there could be a government of SA that isn't 100% African nationalist. It actually enrages them.

The voters the DA can win are the urban middle classes and particularly racial minorities. As we're seeing in a PR electoral system 20% is not small. The massive size of the ANC up until now has obscured that in most PR systems 20% is a big player. The DA will soon be the only party that's a player in all the large urban centres and all the important provinces, other parties will do well in some but not all. I've seen the DA's data on membership and support, it added most of its black support under Tony Leon and early on under Helen Zille. When the DA started doing what the haters wanted it stopped gaining black supporters, Maimane added zero black support.

[_Os_]

The racists are crying because they genuinely think the EFF or MK or whoever else are automatically entitled to be larger than the DA, because in their minds the DA is white and should be small and defeated. They also cannot get their heads around the idea that there could be a government of SA that isn't 100% African nationalist. It actually enrages them.

This is a good example of what I'm talking about, he looks like he's about to start crying. Hilarious.



For those that don't know who this EFF "fighter" is, he started out as one of the student protestors in 2015. He is bastard who gets his way by intimidation and bullying. His expectation is that no "white party" (there's no such thing, but in his mind there is) should get over 20% of the vote. He expects the EFF to be the official opposition and a big deal, not to be shrinking and potentially irrelevant to the future. He never saw any chance of this coming.

The voters are saying nothing he thought would happen is going to happen, and he's enraged by it. The DA got the same voters it has in recent elections, there's no conspiracy. DA voters voted DA. Definitely in Durban Muslim voters all vote DA. It's probably a bit different in Cape Town, but none of them are ever going to vote EFF. Because the EFF are clowns.

Meanwhile this guy has invested his whole life and identity into the EFF, he's now unemployable outside of radical left wing politics. Any SA corporate will Google his name and say "fuck that!".

I suspect the next chapter in his story and the EFF's story will be trying to bully MK or IFP when they come to take more EFF votes, the same way he's built a career doing that to whites. Lets just say that's not going to work so well ...

I'm loving it.

[_Os_]

Johnson is worth a listen here don't always agree with him but this all sounds correct, a lot of the points he makes I've made on the thread. If you're from KZN and interested in politics a lot of this stuff isn't hard to see. Johnson is from the UK but moved to Durban when he was young, oddly he was a childhood friend of JZ (can't recall the circumstances, something like JZ's mother was a domestic for Johnson's mother), he can basically rock up at Nkandla and have lunch with JZ if he wants.

[Blake]

That's some terrible analysis there Blakey!

It's a very different set of voters now compared to 1994. People die and young people start voting. Because of voter apathy it's much harder to get votes now than in '94, everyone able voted back then, it's still the biggest turnout despite the population being smaller then.

NP back in '94: NP had the white voters other than the 420k who voted FF and the 340k who voted DP, about half the coloured voters, no Indian voters, no black voters. It was also the fucking NP, sending them into the dustbin was something white and coloured voters should get some credit for.

DA in 2024: The coalition of voters backing the DA is much larger than the one which backed the NP in '94, despite the percentage of the vote and some of the geography being similar. DA support is split roughly into thirds white/coloured/black, with Indians in there too. Some apathy among white/coloured/Indian voters is hidden by the DA's growth among black voters. Far more black people voted DA than the parties trying to be a "black DA" put together (Rise, BOSA, ASA, UIM). 1999 was the breakthrough elections, DA voters deserve some credit for sticking with it through a quarter of a century of voting without a hope of being in government. That's next level stubborn. In a lot of countries those voters give up well before now and the country ends up worse off.

ANC back in '94: People actually believed in them. The only people who didn't voted FF or DP.

ANC in 2024: No one believes in them now, even the ANC itself seems tired of it all. 2 million less people are voting ANC-EFF-MK than voted ANC alone in '94. Basically no way they can avoid shedding more voters whatever they do, smaller more narrow coalition of voters than in '94.

I know there have been demographic shifts between 1994 and 2024, and different voter turnout, but just on high level numbers, the maps and numbers look eerily and depressingly similar.

While the DA has managed to appeal more to other minority groups, it's just disheartening that they have been unable to grow to 30-35%. The ANC was just such a juggernaut, and it's depressing that so many their votes just moved to MK or EFF are stayed away.

I agree with your statement that its impossible for a party to appeal to every voter, and that some people will never vote DA regardless of what they do or say or what their policies are. It's just disheartening that they can see the proof, and yet still won't change their views.

[Blake]

Johnson is worth a listen here don't always agree with him but this all sounds correct, a lot of the points he makes I've made on the thread. If you're from KZN and interested in politics a lot of this stuff isn't hard to see. Johnson is from the UK but moved to Durban when he was young, oddly he was a childhood friend of JZ (can't recall the circumstances, something like JZ's mother was a domestic for Johnson's mother), he can basically rock up at Nkandla and have lunch with JZ if he wants.

Interesting video thanks. Looks like his call on KZN was a bit off, but probably becaus the final results were not yet in when the interview was conducted.

Looks like IFP (15 seats) + DA (14 seats) + ANC (11 seats) are going to be able to control KZN with a razor-thin 40 out of 80 provincial seats to block MK and EFF from power in the province. Maybe NFP will add their 1 seat to the mix to just get them over the line.

[Sards]

There is some movement in the markets. Just a trickle but I expect it to start opening up. With the Western Cape secured there is more optimistic investment.

In my industry the Hospitality industry there have been a lot of restaurants, convention venues and hotels going into auction.

[_Os_]

The SACP has said it wants a minority ANC government supported by elements of GNU but excluding the DA and MK.

That is a very round about way of saying they want the ANC to govern without a coalition through the support of the EFF.

The SACP is very important in the internal workings of the ANC. What they say is often what happens.

Chances of a good outcome are now hugely reduced.

ANC minority government that depends on the EFF, would be a kak outcome. It's the ANC's funeral if they go with that. Will deliver fokkol and mean even less votes for them.

[assfly]

There is some movement in the markets. Just a trickle but I expect it to start opening up. With the Western Cape secured there is more optimistic investment.

In my industry the Hospitality industry there have been a lot of restaurants, convention venues and hotels going into auction.

At this rate, there could be quite an influx of people moving to the Western Cap.

[Blake]

There is some movement in the markets. Just a trickle but I expect it to start opening up. With the Western Cape secured there is more optimistic investment.

In my industry the Hospitality industry there have been a lot of restaurants, convention venues and hotels going into auction.

At this rate, there could be quite an influx of people moving to the Western Cap.

There already is, but yes. It's likely to only get "worse". It's already the province with the second highest net-migration internally.



House prices here are skyrocketing (and have been for the last decade), schools are over capacity and traffic is a shitshow (not helped by PRASA fucking up the commuter rail system which was closed in 2019. Luckily PRASA managed to reopen the central like in March last year albeit with limited service. Let's hope that continues.

Luckily the City and Western Cape government are aware of the challenges and trying their best to expand capacity. They've realised that truth that cities actually compete against one another for people. The more high income people move here, the higher the local tax base and the more capital and investment they bring to create more local jobs. It's a flywheel.

The challenge is obvious though and expanding services to the poorer communities that are also growing at a crazy rate with people moving from the Eastern Cape is still very challenging.