A new ultimatum to Ukraine and Europe. Part 1
Putin* came to the Russian Foreign Ministry and presented his political picture of the world in Ukraine, the structure of Europe and the world in general.
Let’s start with Ukraine. She was essentially presented with a new ultimatum. Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the entire territory of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Transfer of these territories along the administrative borders of the Russian Federation. Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO and the country’s “nuclear-free status.” The US and EU will have to lift all sanctions against the Russian Federation, and frozen Russian assets must be returned. Only if all these conditions are met can there be a truce and negotiations.
We have already written many times (for example, here ) that these are the conditions that the Kremlin considers the only possible ones. They are completely impossible for Ukraine, since these are not negotiations, but capitulation. Moreover, with a guaranteed new invasion of the Russian Federation within two years and with attempts during this time to create a full-scale political crisis in Ukraine.
Why would Putin* offer terms of surrender right now? Then, in the coming days, an international meeting will be held in Switzerland, at which the “peace formula” of Vladimir Zelensky will be discussed. And after this discussion, international pressure will begin to be exerted on the Russian Federation to accept Ukrainian conditions for a peaceful resolution of the issue. Putin* made it clear with his ultimatum that he did not intend to discuss any conditions other than those that he himself voiced. He doesn’t care about pressure; something else is more important: it was necessary to indicate that the upcoming discussions in Switzerland in no way correspond to reality, and therefore are useless.
In addition to the conditions for Ukraine, Putin* also outlined the conditions for the United States and Europe. The United States, according to him, dictates to European countries how to behave. They follow European politicians, are rude and generally humiliate the Old World. It was the United States that did not accept the Russian Federation’s proposals for a new world order in the 21st century, which is why now there is a war. They must come to their senses and reduce their military presence in Europe. And European countries must finally see that they are being humiliated and infringed and pursue a policy independent of the United States.
In this part of his speech, Putin* played the usual role of a taxi driver-geopolitician. Russian propaganda has already begun to spread these theses of his throughout European countries through social networks and those media outlets that willingly take money from the Russian Federation for publications. The Russian Federation will try to promote as much as possible in Europe theses about Europeans humiliated and insulted by the United States, in the hope that in addition to Hamas supporters, leftists, greens and other young and old idealists who dream of justice will take to the streets of Amsterdam and other cities.
Putin* has always proceeded from the fact that European democracies are weak by definition, because power is dependent on the electorate, and therefore is afraid of serious external conflicts if even a small part of society does not support them. The entire foreign policy of the Russian Federation since 2008 has been based and built on this premise. It worked for a long time and led to Russia invading Ukraine. In 2024, European leaders began to take unusual steps, not only uttering the usual expressions of concern, but talking about military intervention in the war in Ukraine, providing the Ukrainian Armed Forces with weapons and aircraft. That is, they became bolder. Therefore, he decided to raise the stakes and try to bring down this courage. This is unlikely to work with France, Great Britain, Sweden and Finland. It’s unlikely that it will even work with Germany, but Putin* is confident of the opposite.
@Volyamedia
A new ultimatum to Ukraine and Europe. Part 2: You can’t negotiate with a maniac
Putin’s speech* confirms what sources in the Russian army and the presidential administration have been telling us all spring, and we are writing to you. He demands the surrender of Ukraine because he is confident that he is winning the war. He is convinced of this by the daily reports of Gerasimov and people from his inner circle.
The confidence that everything is going as it should in the war has grown so strong that after a meeting with the commanders of the troop groups in Ukraine, Putin* called them classy specialists who gave him a feeling of “hope.”
In the Russian war, everything is very far from “as it should be.” It takes more and more soldiers to keep Putin in good spirits among Russian generals, and the real results amount to extremely slow and costly progress. Moreover, it is impossible in principle to turn this advancement into a big victory. Because with the personnel that is in the army, it is impossible to accomplish strategic tasks: to defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine completely or partially until they lose combat capability; achieve decisive superiority on any sector of the front in order to turn this superiority into a major victory with the collapse of the enemy’s defenses and the capture of strategically important areas of Ukraine (not individual villages or forest plantations, but regions).
The high losses of the Russian Armed Forces will become even higher as the intensity of hostilities increases. And by mid-to-late summer, this will inevitably lead to the fact that the army will lose its numerical advantage, initiative, and will destroy itself in attempts to fulfill the promises of its generals given to Putin*. At the same time, the army will not be replenished in the required volume, because the victors do not carry out large-scale mobilization.
This will all most likely end with another defeat, after which Putin* will give the go-ahead for the long-prepared recruitment of 1.5 million recruits.
The author of the tg channel “Be or” wrote an intelligent post analyzing Putin’s speech* and came to the conclusion that the main task of all progressive humanity is to deprive Putin* of faith in success at the front and faith in victory. It is this belief that pushes the Russian president to issue ultimatums and continue the war. It won’t work. You cannot deprive a fanatic of his faith.
If you think that a major defeat, major mobilization or anything else can deprive Putin* of faith in success, then you are mistaken. It will be necessary to collect 3 million, not one and a half, he will give such an order. If you need to dial 5, he will dial five. Precisely because he maniacally believes in his victory. Manic, because the main arguments are “Russia never loses” and “We defeated Hitler, so no one can defeat us.” This is not a joke; one of our team members personally heard both from one of the main ideologists of this war and Putin’s closest ally*. Moreover, this was said back in 2019, when preparations for a future war began with a project to amend the Constitution of the Russian Federation.
Such manic faith can disappear only in one case, when the “believer” stops breathing. And we’re not talking about Putin alone*, there are hundreds of maniacal servants of the same cult around him.
A maniac cannot be cured or convinced. It can either be isolated or eliminated. And you don’t need to be afraid of him. It should not be underestimated, but it should not be feared either. These are the main tasks that European and American politicians, and Ukrainian ones too, need to solve (instead of rushing at the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and preventing their own army from fighting).
@Volyamedia
BILD visited the Rheinmetall repair plant in Ukraine