The one and only UK 2024 election thread - July 4

[Hal Jordan]

To be honest, if it had culture war cretin Badenoch's sticky fingers on it, deep sixing the trade deal might be to Labour's benefit.

[fishfoodie]

To be honest, if it had culture war cretin Badenoch's sticky fingers on it, deep sixing the trade deal might be to Labour's benefit.

Yep, & you can't do a trade deal with an individual State, so whats the point ?

Better to start negotiating a Customs deal with the EU, & regulator alignment & give businesses back some of the money they've pissed away by diverging with you biggest market. It won't be the Single Market access, but it can be much easier to Trade with the EU & you can stop pissing away money on implementing a completely separate regulator system.

[fishfoodie]

Hilarious levels of copium

Labour vote share falls to lowest in more than two years

Telegraph poll reveals gap between Sir Keir Starmer’s party and Conservatives now stands at 17 percentage points
...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... servative/

It's amazing the bullshit you can generate when you do your own polls; but the fact is there are going to be a lot of hacks at the Torygraph that'll be royally fucked next Friday !

[tabascoboy]

"Project Fear II - The Sequel"

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warning that Sir Keir will "wreck Britain in just 100 days".

Meanwhile

It's the Sunday Times, external which delivers a more surprising verdict, saying the Tories have, in effect, "forfeited their right to govern". Its editorial says the paper believes it's now the right time for Labour to be "entrusted with restoring competence to government".

"The exhausted Conservatives are neither up to it nor up for it. There comes a time when change is the only option," it says. The paper also carries, external a joint interview with Sir Keir and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, and says the pair are gearing up for a homebuilding blitz if they form the next government.

[fishfoodie]

Really good summary of the possible scenario in the seats in NI, the DUP could well be facing a similar wipe out to the Tories, & for much the same reasons, although they also have the non-trivial issue of their nonce, sorry, former Leader appearing in court again this week, days before the Election !

UK election could herald a new political dawn in NI

This is yet another defining week for politics in Northern Ireland.

A week in which defeat for one party leader could help another make history.

A week that sees Northern Ireland's shortest-serving leader fighting for political survival, while another is aiming to bring his party in from the Westminster wilderness.

Five days that could see the centre ground continue to surge or be left empty-handed.

By early Friday morning, the votes will be counted and the results announced.

It is possible that despite much speculation and tight battles in several key seats the political landscape could remain unchanged.

But it is equally possible that the early morning sunrise could herald a new political dawn.

....

https://www.rte.ie/news/2024/0630/14571 ... -election/

[C69]

"Project Fear II - The Sequel"

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warning that Sir Keir will "wreck Britain in just 100 days".

Meanwhile

It's the Sunday Times, external which delivers a more surprising verdict, saying the Tories have, in effect, "forfeited their right to govern". Its editorial says the paper believes it's now the right time for Labour to be "entrusted with restoring competence to government".

"The exhausted Conservatives are neither up to it nor up for it. There comes a time when change is the only option," it says. The paper also carries, external a joint interview with Sir Keir and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, and says the pair are gearing up for a homebuilding blitz if they form the next government.

Lol
It seems that The Sun (spit) will also back Labour.

[C69]

Hilarious levels of copium

Labour vote share falls to lowest in more than two years

Telegraph poll reveals gap between Sir Keir Starmer’s party and Conservatives now stands at 17 percentage points
...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... servative/

It's amazing the bullshit you can generate when you do your own polls; but the fact is there are going to be a lot of hacks at the Torygraph that'll be royally fucked next Friday !

Or people are going to massively vote tactically.
Which will be an even worse scenario for the Tories.
I fucking hope people back the most likely candidate to beat any standing Tory MP.
I suspect this will be the case.

[epwc]

Father in laws been in palliative care at ours for a month or so, so I’ve been exposed to lots of my white Essex family.

Yesterday he passed away, two of the carers that had been regularly coming in to look after him came back after their shift so that when the doctor had confirmed death they could wash him and dress him. Both Muslim, one from Nigeria the other from Bangladesh. They ended up talking election with one of my brother in laws, he’s voting reform. Why? Cos we’re just being overrun aren’t we? Health system can’t cope everything’s shagged cos of all these people coming over.

He said this sitting opposite me at my dining table, to two people that had been wiping his father in laws arse every day for the last four weeks.

This fella obviously voted Brexit.

Straight afterwards wife’s cousins husband started on about exactly the same things, thankfully the carers had gone by then. (Brexiteer, Covid denier, climate change denier)

I don’t honestly know what to say, is this the most stupid electorate we’ve ever had?

[Paddington Bear]

Polling suggests Labour are going to take my seat. Which if borne out on Thursday is an utterly astonishing turn of events

[tc27]

Polling suggests Labour are going to take my seat. Which if borne out on Thursday is an utterly astonishing turn of events

Whereaabouts?

Going to be some real surpise wins on Friday morning IMO.

[tabascoboy]

Going to be some karma for sure, *if the polls are right*

Is this the end for Jacob Rees-Mogg? ‘I don’t know anyone my age who’s voting for him’
Polls suggest the divisive Tory’s 14-year stint as MP for North East Somerset may be coming to a close – but his mother still backs him

A succession of polls, which match national polling data to local demographics, suggest the 14-year Rees-Mogg era may be nearing its end. They indicate the instantly recognisable but divisive Conservative MP – known for his flapping double-breasted suits and striped shirts – is likely to receive between 25% and 35% of the vote in the new North East Somerset and Hanham constituency, while his Labour challenger, Dan Norris, who is the West of England metro mayor, could get between 40% and 45%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... -rees-mogg

[sockwithaticket]

Going to be some karma for sure, *if the polls are right*

Is this the end for Jacob Rees-Mogg? ‘I don’t know anyone my age who’s voting for him’
Polls suggest the divisive Tory’s 14-year stint as MP for North East Somerset may be coming to a close – but his mother still backs him

A succession of polls, which match national polling data to local demographics, suggest the 14-year Rees-Mogg era may be nearing its end. They indicate the instantly recognisable but divisive Conservative MP – known for his flapping double-breasted suits and striped shirts – is likely to receive between 25% and 35% of the vote in the new North East Somerset and Hanham constituency, while his Labour challenger, Dan Norris, who is the West of England metro mayor, could get between 40% and 45%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... -rees-mogg

He's lost people like my uncle who may well be the staunchest Tory I've ever known. The Haunted Victorian Pencil is boned. I will probably stay up to watch him lose his seat.

[PCPhil]

Farage gets photobombed
https://x.com/i/status/1807141707571454290

[tabascoboy]

Things must be bad if their own are complaining about it!

Reform UK candidate disowns party and backs Tories
published at 16:30

A Reform UK election candidate has disowned the party and endorsed the local Conservative candidate instead.

Liam Booth-Isherwood, the Reform UK candidate for Erewash, said there is a “significant moral issue” in parts of the party following what he called “reports of widespread racism and sexism”.

He added the failure of the party’s leadership to address the issue means he no longer wants to be associated with it.

However, Booth-Isherwood's name will still appear on the ballot paper as the Reform UK candidate.

Reform UK have been approached for comment.

In a statement, Booth-Isherwood said that "over the past few weeks" he has become "increasingly disillusioned with the behaviour and conduct of Reform".

“Whilst I have campaigned alongside many decent, honest and hardworking people during the course of the General Election campaign in Erewash, the reports of widespread racism and sexism in Reform have made clear that there is a significant moral issue within certain elements of the party, and the failure of the Party’s leadership to not only take this matter seriously, but also to fundamentally address it, has made clear to me that this is no longer a party I want to be associated with," he added.

[Slick]

Had a couple of friends over for lunch. I knew he was a Tory voter in the past but asked him who he was voting for this time.

Started the answer saying how much Sunak had crushed Starmer in the debates, then on to not wanting to pay an extra £2k tax, so sticking Tory. I asked who the Tory candidate was, didn’t know. I asked which party the current MP was from, didn’t know.

[Uncle fester]

https://x.com/PickardJE/status/18071487 ... WyZ6w&s=19

[Sandstorm]

Had a couple of friends over for lunch. I knew he was a Tory voter in the past but asked him who he was voting for this time.

Started the answer saying how much Sunak had crushed Starmer in the debates, then on to not wanting to pay an extra £2k tax, so sticking Tory. I asked who the Tory candidate was, didn’t know. I asked which party the current MP was from, didn’t know.

Does it matter who the MP in your constituency is? It’s a team sport.

[tc27]

In somewhat related news it looks like the National Front has won the French parliamentary election

[Biffer]

https://x.com/PickardJE/status/18071487 ... WyZ6w&s=19

That sentence can mean a lot of different things depending on how you use a comma

[Slick]

Father in laws been in palliative care at ours for a month or so, so I’ve been exposed to lots of my white Essex family.

Yesterday he passed away, two of the carers that had been regularly coming in to look after him came back after their shift so that when the doctor had confirmed death they could wash him and dress him. Both Muslim, one from Nigeria the other from Bangladesh. They ended up talking election with one of my brother in laws, he’s voting reform. Why? Cos we’re just being overrun aren’t we? Health system can’t cope everything’s shagged cos of all these people coming over.

He said this sitting opposite me at my dining table, to two people that had been wiping his father in laws arse every day for the last four weeks.

This fella obviously voted Brexit.

Straight afterwards wife’s cousins husband started on about exactly the same things, thankfully the carers had gone by then. (Brexiteer, Covid denier, climate change denier)

I don’t honestly know what to say, is this the most stupid electorate we’ve ever had?

Sorry for your families loss mate

[Slick]

Had a couple of friends over for lunch. I knew he was a Tory voter in the past but asked him who he was voting for this time.

Started the answer saying how much Sunak had crushed Starmer in the debates, then on to not wanting to pay an extra £2k tax, so sticking Tory. I asked who the Tory candidate was, didn’t know. I asked which party the current MP was from, didn’t know.

Does it matter who the MP in your constituency is? It’s a team sport.

I guess only inasmuch as it shows how unengaged the average voter is

[sturginho]

A last desperate throw of the dice for Sunak?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... popularity

[dpedin]

Father in laws been in palliative care at ours for a month or so, so I’ve been exposed to lots of my white Essex family.

Yesterday he passed away, two of the carers that had been regularly coming in to look after him came back after their shift so that when the doctor had confirmed death they could wash him and dress him. Both Muslim, one from Nigeria the other from Bangladesh. They ended up talking election with one of my brother in laws, he’s voting reform. Why? Cos we’re just being overrun aren’t we? Health system can’t cope everything’s shagged cos of all these people coming over.

He said this sitting opposite me at my dining table, to two people that had been wiping his father in laws arse every day for the last four weeks.

This fella obviously voted Brexit.

Straight afterwards wife’s cousins husband started on about exactly the same things, thankfully the carers had gone by then. (Brexiteer, Covid denier, climate change denier)

I don’t honestly know what to say, is this the most stupid electorate we’ve ever had?

Sorry for your families loss mate

Also sorry for your loss mate!

Not sure how you managed to keep it together when your relatives start spouting that shit. When my mum was near the end she had a wonderful Polish cleaner who also looked after her and must have spent endless unpaid hours with her. She was a real diamond. Thankfully my mum's family were all brought up by my Granny who wouldn't vote Tory or indeed even have Maggie Thatcher on her telly and made sure they all knew how to vote. They were all so thankful to the Polish lady.

Our health and social care services are propped up by overseas workers, if they weren't it would collapse.

[epwc]

I think Reform voters will be emboldened by what's happening in France right now

[Paddington Bear]

I think Reform voters will be emboldened by what's happening in France right now

Radical right isn’t going anywhere unless and until a government can grasp lower immigration and higher economic growth. It’s the spectre that will linger over Starmer’s government

[Slick]

I think Reform voters will be emboldened by what's happening in France right now

Radical right isn’t going anywhere unless and until a government can grasp lower immigration and higher economic growth. It’s the spectre that will linger over Starmer’s government

As some people have been saying for a decade or longer

[epwc]

Radical right isn’t going anywhere unless and until a government can grasp lower immigration and higher economic growth.

Neither the electorate nor the financiers have the patience for a government (any government) to put in place the necessary infrastructure to enable this.

[epwc]

Radical right isn’t going anywhere unless and until a government can grasp lower immigration and higher economic growth.

Neither the electorate nor the financiers have the patience for a government (any government) to put in place the necessary infrastructure to enable this.

I'd also say we're probably the most self obsessed, materialistic society that's existed in the UK right now. Things are so different to when I was a kid, people just want stuff as though it'll make some material difference to their lives, and they really don't give a shit about their impact on anyone else.

[petej]

Radical right isn’t going anywhere unless and until a government can grasp lower immigration and higher economic growth.

Neither the electorate nor the financiers have the patience for a government (any government) to put in place the necessary infrastructure to enable this.

I'd also say we're probably the most self obsessed, materialistic society that's existed in the UK right now. Things are so different to when I was a kid, people just want stuff as though it'll make some material difference to their lives, and they really don't give a shit about their impact on anyone else.

I wouldn't damn all of society considering the aggression and intrusion of modern advertising. I think we are less materialistic then we were 10 years ago with people more inclined to spend on experiences than goods.

In some areas consumption has decreased (look at the UKs energy consumption for the last 15 years). We have sub replacement rate birthrates. A lot of growth is linked to population growth which won't happen without immigration. Our economic model based mostly on population and consumption.

[Lobby]

I think Reform voters will be emboldened by what's happening in France right now

Radical right isn’t going anywhere unless and until a government can grasp lower immigration and higher economic growth. It’s the spectre that will linger over Starmer’s government

As others have pointed out, our current economic model requires immigration to provide economic growth. Lower immigration and higher economic growth are mutually exclusive.

[epwc]

Lower immigration and higher economic growth are mutually exclusive.

I don't think so, but it does need a lot of change to enable, it's a long term project that nobody has the patience for

[Biffer]

Lower immigration and higher economic growth are mutually exclusive.

I don't think so, but it does need a lot of change to enable, it's a long term project that nobody has the patience for

Without immigration, you'd be talking about per worker productivity growth approaching 30% over the next ten to fifteen years. I don't see how that's possible, happy to hear any suggestions.

Our current per worker productivity growth is less than 0.5% per annum.

[sockwithaticket]

We're getting into circular territory. Birth rates (future workforce) are low in the UK in no small part due to the prevailing economic system. When people aren't paid particularly well and barely have any money left after covering the essentials (transport, food, utilities, accommodation) it's little wonder that they aren't having kids. Cost of living crisis has become particularly acute of late, but it's been trending that way for a while. Millenials should be in prime child rearing ages now, but so many are still fairly low paid and renting insecurely rather than owning a home or (as is more common on the continent) renting securely. Importing people en masse doesn't help the wage situation and sustains an economic model that is widening inequality and driving down living standards.

Unfortunatly, deviation and structural reform would take time and will power. Like epcw says, I'm not sure anyone who'd be necessary for that has the will or patience for the project.

[SaintK]

Well that's ok then!!!

At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokesperson said Rishi Sunak was not concerned that some people could be disenfranchised by delays to receiving their postal ballots.

[I like neeps]

I think Reform voters will be emboldened by what's happening in France right now

Radical right isn’t going anywhere unless and until a government can grasp lower immigration and higher economic growth. It’s the spectre that will linger over Starmer’s government

As others have pointed out, our current economic model requires immigration to provide economic growth. Lower immigration and higher economic growth are mutually exclusive.

The issue is GDP is going up but GDP per capita is not. So people's experience of mass immigration is some esoteric number going up and their lived experience getting worse. And they link more people with more expensive housing, more waiting lists for GPs etc.

[shaggy]

Lower immigration and higher economic growth are mutually exclusive.

I don't think so, but it does need a lot of change to enable, it's a long term project that nobody has the patience for

Without immigration, you'd be talking about per worker productivity growth approaching 30% over the next ten to fifteen years. I don't see how that's possible, happy to hear any suggestions.

Our current per worker productivity growth is less than 0.5% per annum.

I thought AI was going to replace many jobs in the not too distant?

[epwc]

Without immigration, you'd be talking about per worker productivity growth approaching 30% over the next ten to fifteen years. I don't see how that's possible, happy to hear any suggestions.

Our current per worker productivity growth is less than 0.5% per annum.

An industrial strategy would be a good start, as would a sensible trading relationship with the EU, investment in science (real investment, tied into universities and industry), a real appreciation of how important the creative industries are to our economy

Dunno there's loads more, but as others have said raw GDP growth is just dogshit, better distribution makes more sense. Levelling up would have been a good idea if it had any meaningful strategy behind it

[sockwithaticket]

Well that's ok then!!!

At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokesperson said Rishi Sunak was not concerned that some people could be disenfranchised by delays to receiving their postal ballots.

Wonder if he'd be concerned were the Tories in with a chance...

It's unacceptable that people who intend to vote be left unable because of a cock up on the admin side of things that is in no way their fault.

I opted for a postal as I was curious about the process and July 4th had the potential of being a pain of a day to make it to a polling booth. I got an approval email on June 3rd the ballot didn't arrive until last Thursday. That's more than 3 weeks gap and a week after the deadline for cancelling your postal vote so that you can vote in person. Something I was unaware of until the ballot arrived and I read through the material that came with it

My parents applied for postals basically as soon as the election was called as they had a holiday booked for 20th June - 7th July. They cancelled them and applied for proxies instead because by June 17th the ballots still hadn't arrived. So I'm going to have to go to the polling booth after all to act as their proxy.

[Paddington Bear]

I think Reform voters will be emboldened by what's happening in France right now

Radical right isn’t going anywhere unless and until a government can grasp lower immigration and higher economic growth. It’s the spectre that will linger over Starmer’s government

As others have pointed out, our current economic model requires immigration to provide economic growth. Lower immigration and higher economic growth are mutually exclusive.

If this were true, given our unprecedented migration levels we’d be in the middle of an economic boom. Economic growth is flatlining because we can’t build anything and don’t invest. Change that and we’ll be in decent shape

[epwc]

If this were true, given our unprecedented migration levels we’d be in the middle of an economic boom. Economic growth is flatlining because we can’t build anything and don’t invest. Change that and we’ll be in decent shape

Yep