The one and only UK 2024 election thread - July 4

[tc27]

Mrs Starmer is an absolute fox

[sturginho]

Mrs Starmer is an absolute fox

"Sun readers don't care who runs the country, as long as they've got big tits" - Bernard Woolley

[sturginho]

When you lay out the numbers like this, it really looks ridiculous:

Labour: 9,634,399 (410)

Conservative: 6,756,134 (119)

Reform UK: 4,073,607 (4)

Lib Dems: 3,487,604 (71)

Green: 1,931,887 (4)

SNP: 685,405 (9)

Plaid Cymru: 194,811 (4)

circa 3 million more for "progressive" parties than the right wing parties, but of course the narrative will be all about the right wing "surge"

[Raggs]

When you lay out the numbers like this, it really looks ridiculous:

Labour: 9,634,399 (410)

Conservative: 6,756,134 (119)

Reform UK: 4,073,607 (4)

Lib Dems: 3,487,604 (71)

Green: 1,931,887 (4)

SNP: 685,405 (9)

Plaid Cymru: 194,811 (4)

circa 3 million more for "progressive" parties than the right wing parties, but of course the narrative will be all about the right wing "surge"

Was more thinking that reform are close to having half the votes of labour, but have 1% of the seats.

[tc27]

Anyway no more ERG court intrigue or having to care what Steve Baker or Rees Mogg thinks about things. Liss Truss goooooone.

[JM2K6]

When you lay out the numbers like this, it really looks ridiculous:

Labour: 9,634,399 (410)

Conservative: 6,756,134 (119)

Reform UK: 4,073,607 (4)

Lib Dems: 3,487,604 (71)

Green: 1,931,887 (4)

SNP: 685,405 (9)

Plaid Cymru: 194,811 (4)

circa 3 million more for "progressive" parties than the right wing parties, but of course the narrative will be all about the right wing "surge"

Was more thinking that reform are close to having half the votes of labour, but have 1% of the seats.

It's pointless trying to equate the two in the context of a non FPTP system. In an alternative system the numbers would look completely different.

Having 1% of the seats because you're able to get lots of votes across the country while putting up candidates who are not serious options for power, with almost no constituency willing to give you more votes than the other options, simply shows the limitations of protest votes in this environment. They have no appeal outside an energised one-issue base.

[JM2K6]

Anyway no more ERG court intrigue or having to care what Steve Baker or Rees Mogg thinks about things. Liss Truss goooooone.

Oh don't worry, we're in for a few years of hearing from the remaining Tory psychos and the Reform arseholes at every possible opportunity

[Raggs]

circa 3 million more for "progressive" parties than the right wing parties, but of course the narrative will be all about the right wing "surge"

Was more thinking that reform are close to having half the votes of labour, but have 1% of the seats.

It's pointless trying to equate the two in the context of a non FPTP system. In an alternative system the numbers would look completely different.

Having 1% of the seats because you're able to get lots of votes across the country while putting up candidates who are not serious options for power, with almost no constituency willing to give you more votes than the other options, simply shows the limitations of protest votes in this environment. They have no appeal outside an energised one-issue base.

Oh I know, it just highlights the ridiculousness of the system, as well as the advantage.

[Biffer]

When you lay out the numbers like this, it really looks ridiculous:

Labour: 9,634,399 (410)

Conservative: 6,756,134 (119)

Reform UK: 4,073,607 (4)

Lib Dems: 3,487,604 (71)

Green: 1,931,887 (4)

SNP: 685,405 (9)

Plaid Cymru: 194,811 (4)

circa 3 million more for "progressive" parties than the right wing parties, but of course the narrative will be all about the right wing "surge"

Was more thinking that reform are close to having half the votes of labour, but have 1% of the seats.

Yeah, but you either have it or you don’t. There wouldn’t have been a right wing majority for decades on past election percentages.

[sockwithaticket]

Found this in the wilds of social media

Jacob Rees Mogg can now return to his other job, as a sleep paralysis demon at an all boys boarding school.

[tc27]

Anyway no more ERG court intrigue or having to care what Steve Baker or Rees Mogg thinks about things. Liss Truss goooooone.

Oh don't worry, we're in for a few years of hearing from the remaining Tory psychos and the Reform arseholes at every possible opportunity

Yeah but they can't write letters to bring down the prime minister.

It's a good bet one or two reform MPs will have to resign at some point.

[tabascoboy]

When you lay out the numbers like this, it really looks ridiculous:

Labour: 9,634,399 (410)

Conservative: 6,756,134 (119)

Reform UK: 4,073,607 (4)

Lib Dems: 3,487,604 (71)

Green: 1,931,887 (4)

SNP: 685,405 (9)

Plaid Cymru: 194,811 (4)

circa 3 million more for "progressive" parties than the right wing parties, but of course the narrative will be all about the right wing "surge"

Was more thinking that reform are close to having half the votes of labour, but have 1% of the seats.

One of very few fantasy island commitments in the Deform "manifesto" was for replacement of FPTP with same kind of PR. Can be sure they'll be beefing about this!

[tabascoboy]

Didn't take long for the Torygraph to try and start undermining the new government!

(Paywalled)

Overjoyed migrants in France vow to make crossing ‘as soon as possible’ after Labour victory
Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide win prompts new hope in refugees, following new Prime Minister’s pledge to scrap Rwanda plan

5 July 2024 • 12:56pm

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... le-labour/

We need a "Stop voting for fucking Labour!" topic

[Hugo]

Hopefully that's the last we ever hear of Truss. An absolute flyweight in every conceivable way.

[epwc]

I think the single issue MPs that stood on the Gaza issue will last just this cycle, I don't know what they think they'll achieve but it'll probably be the square root of fuck all

Reform is a bigger issue, loads of boys (interestingly not girls) that went to school with my daughters (they're 20, 21, 24) have voted for Reform as has at least one of their (white) cousins, he's 26 so it's not just angry old men.

These are all people that have no real interest in world affairs but can be riled up on single issues, like obviously migrants....

Now how the fuck do you solve the migrant issue?

1. Decent foreign policy
2. Decent climate policy
3. Reinstating the foreign aid budget
4. Investing in border control (systemically)
5. Ensuring that asylum applicants are processed quickly
6. Ensuring that failed applicants are deported swiftly

I don't think Reform are going to do that, will Labour?

[epwc]

Found this in the wilds of social media

Jacob Rees Mogg can now return to his other job, as a sleep paralysis demon at an all boys boarding school.

or Mutant Harry Potter.

[epwc]

And I'm truly shocked that enough people thought Suella Braverman was worth voting for to get her back in. Absolutely fucking mental

[I like neeps]

We have recalled Agent Truss from the field, her work is complete.

Great tweet from Tim Farron tbf

[SaintK]

Four of nastiest pieces of work you could wish for. I'm sure the voters knew what they were doing!!!

[SaintK]

Hopefully that's the last we ever hear of Truss. An absolute flyweight in every conceivable way.

From John Crace earlier.

Meanwhile, Liz Truss departed this political life in a flurry of indifference towards her constituents. The feeling was mutual. She was slow hand-clapped at her count. A dismal end to a dismal prime minister. But I’ll miss her nonetheless. Where will Popular Conservatism be without the woman who made it so Unpopular? Her unknowing sense of the absurd was comedy gold.

[Biffer]

The Tories left with 121 MPs.

So under their rules it only takes 19 letters from MPs to trigger a leadership election.

However, also under their rules, in order for a candidate to be nominated to run for leader, they need to be nominated by 100MPs

1. Do we think that shower of infighting self serving pricks can agree enough to even nominate anyone?
2. They can’t nominate 2 so the leadership will never go to the membership for an election. That’ll go down well in the county set.

[Slick]

Starmer isnt going to announce a senior cabinet without a Scottish Minister is he?

[Biffer]

Starmer isnt going to announce a senior cabinet without a Scottish Minister is he?

Why would he appoint anyone from a branch office?

[Margin__Walker]

Who are the options outside of the newly elected Scottish MPs?

[Biffer]

Who are the options outside of the newly elected Scottish MPs?

Well, for example Douglas Alexander has previous experience in cabinet.

[tabascoboy]

Four of nastiest pieces of work you could wish for. I'm sure the voters knew what they were doing!!!

Don't know who the one furthest to the right is, but he looks like a flasher

I'm sure they'll make a right thorough nuisance of themselves at PMQs

[Margin__Walker]

Who are the options outside of the newly elected Scottish MPs?

Well, for example Douglas Alexander has previous experience in cabinet.

[tabascoboy]

Ah shite, they got another one

Reform UK wins fifth seat in Basildon South and East Thurrock
published at 17:25
17:25
BREAKING
Reform UK have won in Basildon South and East Thurrock after a recount - gaining the new seat from a notional Conservative candidate.
McMurdock won the seat with a majority of just 98 votes from Labour candidate Jack Ferguson.

[Slick]

Starmer isnt going to announce a senior cabinet without a Scottish Minister is he?

Why would he appoint anyone from a branch office?

Now now.

It would be an early own goal I feel.

[Paddington Bear]

Starmer isnt going to announce a senior cabinet without a Scottish Minister is he?

Why would he appoint anyone from a branch office?

Now now.

It would be an early own goal I feel.

Mandelson was asked about this last night. He suggested that essentially Starmer has had a very close knit top team for some time and intends to translate that directly into government. Clearly two vacancies opened up last night but the principle was sound.

On the point about young men and Reform, young men live in an increasingly female coded society in ways that I don’t think are immediately obvious to people who are older. They also tend to react against whatever the establishment view they are presented with, as just about every generation has. To them, the establishment presentation from teachers/media (they don’t read the Sun, come in) has always been really quite left/liberal, in a way that wasn’t true even for someone like myself that’s a decade older or so (we got similar talks at school but it was always clear that the older teachers didn’t have their hearts in it). It isn’t/shouldn’t be a shock to see them react against it

[sockwithaticket]

Ah shite, they got another one

Reform UK wins fifth seat in Basildon South and East Thurrock
published at 17:25
17:25
BREAKING
Reform UK have won in Basildon South and East Thurrock after a recount - gaining the new seat from a notional Conservative candidate.
McMurdock won the seat with a majority of just 98 votes from Labour candidate Jack Ferguson.

Worth a recount?

[Paddington Bear]

Ah shite, they got another one

Reform UK wins fifth seat in Basildon South and East Thurrock
published at 17:25
17:25
BREAKING
Reform UK have won in Basildon South and East Thurrock after a recount - gaining the new seat from a notional Conservative candidate.
McMurdock won the seat with a majority of just 98 votes from Labour candidate Jack Ferguson.

Worth a recount?

Already done twice I believe

[SaintK]

Four of nastiest pieces of work you could wish for. I'm sure the voters knew what they were doing!!!

Don't know who the one furthest to the right is, but he looks like a flasher

I'm sure they'll make a right thorough nuisance of themselves at PMQs

Ignore.

[fishfoodie]

The Tories left with 121 MPs.

So under their rules it only takes 19 letters from MPs to trigger a leadership election.

However, also under their rules, in order for a candidate to be nominated to run for leader, they need to be nominated by 100MPs

1. Do we think that shower of infighting self serving pricks can agree enough to even nominate anyone?
2. They can’t nominate 2 so the leadership will never go to the membership for an election. That’ll go down well in the county set.

I'm sure they'll just change the rules to reduce the numbers for a nomination to ~40, so they can at least get a couple of candidates.

I'm a little surprised that the Head boy didn't have a private jet waiting for him this morning to just jet off immediately, but I suppose he can just send off the family, & follow himself at the end of the leadership contest, & then we'll see who gets the nomination to stand in his constituency !

[tabascoboy]

Starmer isnt going to announce a senior cabinet without a Scottish Minister is he?

Ian Murray

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxe ... 's%20party.

[Biffer]

The Tories left with 121 MPs.

So under their rules it only takes 19 letters from MPs to trigger a leadership election.

However, also under their rules, in order for a candidate to be nominated to run for leader, they need to be nominated by 100MPs

1. Do we think that shower of infighting self serving pricks can agree enough to even nominate anyone?
2. They can’t nominate 2 so the leadership will never go to the membership for an election. That’ll go down well in the county set.

I'm sure they'll just change the rules to reduce the numbers for a nomination to ~40, so they can at least get a couple of candidates.

I'm a little surprised that the Head boy didn't have a private jet waiting for him this morning to just jet off immediately, but I suppose he can just send off the family, & follow himself at the end of the leadership contest, & then we'll see who gets the nomination to stand in his constituency !

I’m not sure they can change those rules outside of party conference.

[Paddington Bear]

The Tories left with 121 MPs.

So under their rules it only takes 19 letters from MPs to trigger a leadership election.

However, also under their rules, in order for a candidate to be nominated to run for leader, they need to be nominated by 100MPs

1. Do we think that shower of infighting self serving pricks can agree enough to even nominate anyone?
2. They can’t nominate 2 so the leadership will never go to the membership for an election. That’ll go down well in the county set.

I'm sure they'll just change the rules to reduce the numbers for a nomination to ~40, so they can at least get a couple of candidates.

I'm a little surprised that the Head boy didn't have a private jet waiting for him this morning to just jet off immediately, but I suppose he can just send off the family, & follow himself at the end of the leadership contest, & then we'll see who gets the nomination to stand in his constituency !

I’m not sure they can change those rules outside of party conference.

I think that’s true for Labour, but the 1922 committee is essentially a members club (with a rapidly declining membership)

[sockwithaticket]

Ah shite, they got another one

Worth a recount?

Already done twice I believe

Bugger. Same number of MPs as the Greens would've been palatable and a useful slap down going forward, even just the one more makes that attack line less easy to work.

[_Os_]

I have absolutely no doubt that if Scotland had the same experience of immigration as various places in England do then you would find Reform doing even better.

The places where Reform has done best, don't have much to do with immigration on account of the lack of immigrants in those places.

The common features are: white English, Tory voting in recent elections, poorer, older, less well educated. It's basically desperate people in shit holes who have swallowed a nationalist hill of beans. Reform is about English nationalism like the iterations of the same thing which came before it, how well it does is mostly about how poor and English a place is.

If Farage ever did get power, it would be a total shit show (witness his many different Brexit positions), he would be all about cutting taxes, helping corporates/big business, and the usual libertarian stuff. Another Truss but much worse. Would probably mean hyper immigration too. People forget before the EU referendum he was saying he wanted Commonwealth immigrants and not Europeans.


Clacton
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... at=Clacton
Party Elected: Tory 2019, Tory 2017, UKIP 2015
% Voted Leave: 75%
Average Age: 57
Good Education (guessing this means uni?): 33% (national average 49%)
Employed: 43% (national average 58%)
Ethnic White: 96%
Gross Household Income: £33k (national average £42k)
Average House Price: £258k (national average £313k)

Boston and Skegness
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... d+Skegness
Party Elected: Tory 2019, Tory 2017, Tory 2015
% Voted Leave: 77%
Average Age: 53
Good Education: 32%
Employed: 52%
Ethnic White: 96%
Gross Household Income: £33.5k
Average House Price: £181k

Ashfield
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... t=Ashfield
Party Elected: Tory 2019, Labour 2017, Labour 2015
% Voted Leave: 71%
Average Age: 51
Good Education: 38%
Employed: 56%
Ethnic White: 96%
Gross Household Income: £35k
Average House Price: £159k

Great Yarmouth
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... t+Yarmouth
Party Elected: Tory 2019, Tory 2017, Tory 2015
% Voted Leave: 72%
Average Age: 53
Good Education: 34%
Employed: 50%
Ethnic White: 95%
Gross Household Income: £35.5k
Average House Price: £200k

[Biffer]

Angela Rayners responsibilities include housing. So a housing minister who has actually lived in social housing.