President Trump and US politics catchall

[Kiwias]

it's not very typical !

Definitely no cardboard used in its construction.

I presume there is a minimum crew requirement.

At least one, or so I’ve heard

[Slick]

Seen his latest Tweet about Marc Cuban, whoever he is.

Genuinely could come straight out of the mouth of an 8 year old

[fishfoodie]

Seen his latest Tweet about Marc Cuban, whoever he is.

Genuinely could come straight out of the mouth of an 8 year old

Someone who manages to combine so many things the Traitor hates into a single person, it must raise his blood pressure to stratospheric levels

[Rhubarb & Custard]

Definitely no cardboard used in its construction.

I presume there is a minimum crew requirement.

At least one, or so I’ve heard

One big strong beautiful captain, he came up to Trump, tears in his eyes...

[epwc]

One big strong beautiful captain, he came up to Trump, tears in his eyes...

Paper cut?

[TedMaul]

I fear that we might look back at this election and see that Karmala lost it the day she announced the tax on capital gains, thus lining all the super rich up behind Trump.

https://apple.news/AHhrPREI8Q22aQQ7GKnmiEA

[TB63]

[Uncle fester]

Just want this to be over already.

[sefton]

He’s not even subtle in his dog whistles.

[epwc]

What a cunt

[fishfoodie]

The Great Hannibal Lecter told him that, when he gave him the lotion & told him that; "It rubs its lotion on its skin, it does this whenever its told"

[Hal Jordan]

The election is essentially primed as follows.

Trump calls victory way before the dust is settles.

He wins, we hear nothing more about the process, the GOP ratfucks America into the ground, accelerating China's dominance of the 21st century (it's their turn after us and then America) and God help us all.

He loses, months and months of bullshit, legal challenges and at least one serious incident of civil unrest, and God help us all.

[fishfoodie]

The election is essentially primed as follows.

Trump calls victory way before the dust is settles.

He wins, we hear nothing more about the process, the GOP ratfucks America into the ground, accelerating China's dominance of the 21st century (it's their turn after us and then America) and God help us all.

He loses, months and months of bullshit, legal challenges and at least one serious incident of civil unrest, and God help us all.

Except !!!!!

... Joe Biden is President until a new one is confirmed, & as the Traitor Appointed SCOTUS has confirmed; if Joe sends a SEAL Team, or just a bunch of pissed off, "cat ladies", with tyre irons, & castrating irons after the Traitor; then it's all legal & above board ....

[Gumboot]

Not counting chickens, but this new poll showing Harris ahead of Trump by 3 points in Iowa could signal a sea change in the final days of the election...

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 354033007/

Fingers crossed!

[Kiwias]

Alan Lichtman has correctly predicted almost every president in the last 40 years, including some hard-core Republicans such as W and Drumpf. He has never faced any public criticism or attacks. Not this time, after he predicted Harris.

[Flockwitt]

Not counting chickens, but this new poll showing Harris ahead of Trump by 3 points in Iowa could signal a sea change in the final days of the election...

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 354033007/

Fingers crossed!

To borrow something from the other place one of the best pollsters in the business now has Harris winning Iowa.

Very reliable pollster has Harris ahead in Iowa: 47 - 44

https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/18528486 ... s1igZokqEQ

Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

About as good as any pollster gets.

Certainly significant - Iowa was basically on nobody's swing state list.

[Enzedder]

Only 6 electoral votes but they all count

[Flockwitt]

Early indicators that Trump is in trouble in PA. Fingers-crossed it holds.

[Jethro]

The Great Hannibal Lecter told him that, when he gave him the lotion & told him that; "It rubs its lotion on its skin, it does this whenever its told"

Not to be pedantic but you may be confusing Buffalo Bill with Hannibal there dude.

[Biffer]

Recordings now released of Epstein saying he was Trump’s best friend for ten years, that Trump likes to fuck his friends wives, and the first time he fucked Melanie was on the Lolita Express.

[sockwithaticket]

Not a surprise to anyone paying attention really and it's not going to matter.

The cult have their handwave excuses - it's either fake news or he's the imperfect vessel through which they can enact Gilead - and this will be ignored just like the hundreds of other things that would previously have been enough to kill a candidacy.

[fishfoodie]

Not to be pedantic but you may be confusing Buffalo Bill with Hannibal there dude.

I was just channeling the demented ramblings of the orange turd

[Paddington Bear]

These polls are all over the place, I’ve seen some suggesting Trump ahead in New Hampshire etc. How reliable they are is anyone’s guess, but it certainly rolls the wicket for him claiming the election was stolen unless he wins. Dangerous times ahead

[fishfoodie]

Iowa ... Iowa

If that sticks it'll be seismic; Iowa might be a small State, but its a deep Red State, & it voting for* a Democrat President would be incredible.

* Or maybe more accurately, not voting for a MAGA Candidate.

[sockwithaticket]

A lot of red states aren't actually that red. Gerry-mandering, electoral roll purges, general intimidation by both civillian and local government actors etc. creates an impression that they're more red than they are.


Texas for example has become increasingly purple, only 600k votes separated Biden and Trump in 2020 with turnout only being 52% of voting age people. Motivate a bit more turnout and closing the gap is not unthinkable for the Dems. Of course some of the non-voters could also turn out for the Republicans, but it's a huge number of untapped voters and Texas has been particularly guilty of dirty tricks that benefit the Republican establishment like the roll purges, not allowing people to have water in voting lines, reducing the number of polling stations in areas more likely to vote Democrat and so on.

[Uncle fester]

A lot of red states aren't actually that red. Gerry-mandering, electoral roll purges, general intimidation by both civillian and local government actors etc. creates an impression that they're more red than they are.


Texas for example has become increasingly purple, only 600k votes separated Biden and Trump in 2020 with turnout only being 52% of voting age people. Motivate a bit more turnout and closing the gap is not unthinkable for the Dems. Of course some of the non-voters could also turn out for the Republicans, but it's a huge number of untapped voters and Texas has been particularly guilty of dirty tricks that benefit the Republican establishment like the roll purges, not allowing people to have water in voting lines, reducing the number of polling stations in areas more likely to vote Democrat and so on.

The divide is essentially rural/urban.

Was chatting to a friend of mine in Minnesota last time round and congratulating him on St Cloud voting blue but he took me on a trip around the individual counties voting and the decent sized university town of St Cloud was a dot of blue in a sea of red.

[Calculon]

Iowa ... Iowa

If that sticks it'll be seismic; Iowa might be a small State, but its a deep Red State, & it voting for* a Democrat President would be incredible.

* Or maybe more accurately, not voting for a MAGA Candidate.

voted twice for Obama, and also twice for Bill Clinton

[Flockwitt]

Iowa ... Iowa

If that sticks it'll be seismic; Iowa might be a small State, but its a deep Red State, & it voting for* a Democrat President would be incredible.

* Or maybe more accurately, not voting for a MAGA Candidate.

voted twice for Obama, and also twice for Bill Clinton

This. But the fact that Iowa is even in play is a positive for Harris at this stage. According to all the 'experts' it's not supposed to be. Still it's not over till it's over.

[fishfoodie]

Iowa ... Iowa

If that sticks it'll be seismic; Iowa might be a small State, but its a deep Red State, & it voting for* a Democrat President would be incredible.

* Or maybe more accurately, not voting for a MAGA Candidate.

voted twice for Obama, and also twice for Bill Clinton

And the Traitor won by 9.5% in 2016, & 8% in 2020, so Harris +3% would be an 11 point swing !

[Paddington Bear]

Iowa ... Iowa

If that sticks it'll be seismic; Iowa might be a small State, but its a deep Red State, & it voting for* a Democrat President would be incredible.

* Or maybe more accurately, not voting for a MAGA Candidate.

voted twice for Obama, and also twice for Bill Clinton

This. But the fact that Iowa is even in play is a positive for Harris at this stage. According to all the 'experts' it's not supposed to be. Still it's not over till it's over.

Similarly there’s a fair number suggesting places like Virginia are in play for Trump and that he’s ahead in Michigan. Truth is it’s clearly close but beyond that we can have no real idea, and unless something remarkable happens either Trump wins or he declares the election stolen

[fishfoodie]

voted twice for Obama, and also twice for Bill Clinton

This. But the fact that Iowa is even in play is a positive for Harris at this stage. According to all the 'experts' it's not supposed to be. Still it's not over till it's over.

Similarly there’s a fair number suggesting places like Virginia are in play for Trump and that he’s ahead in Michigan. Truth is it’s clearly close but beyond that we can have no real idea, and unless something remarkable happens either Trump wins or he declares the election stolen

and that's probably why there are so many Polls showing conflicting information, like Iowa, where there was another poll showing the Traitor in the lead by ~8%, so if Harris wins Iowa by the 3% in the other poll, he & his minions will say there was obviously fraud because look at this other poll .....

The tactic this time seems to be to block enough State results to deny Harris the votes she needs to get a clear election, & then this kicks things over to a vote where each State gets one vote, & surprise surprise the GOP controls more than 50% of the States.

[Paddington Bear]

This. But the fact that Iowa is even in play is a positive for Harris at this stage. According to all the 'experts' it's not supposed to be. Still it's not over till it's over.

Similarly there’s a fair number suggesting places like Virginia are in play for Trump and that he’s ahead in Michigan. Truth is it’s clearly close but beyond that we can have no real idea, and unless something remarkable happens either Trump wins or he declares the election stolen

and that's probably why there are so many Polls showing conflicting information, like Iowa, where there was another poll showing the Traitor in the lead by ~8%, so if Harris wins Iowa by the 3% in the other poll, he & his minions will say there was obviously fraud because look at this other poll .....

The tactic this time seems to be to block enough State results to deny Harris the votes she needs to get a clear election, & then this kicks things over to a vote where each State gets one vote, & surprise surprise the GOP controls more than 50% of the States.

Yep agreed. He’s even referenced it obliquely recently.

[Fonz]

These polls are all over the place, I’ve seen some suggesting Trump ahead in New Hampshire etc. How reliable they are is anyone’s guess, but it certainly rolls the wicket for him claiming the election was stolen unless he wins. Dangerous times ahead

NH is one of the few swing states not among the designated seven that I think could be a surprise flip. The place has basically become a refugee camp for Bostoners that don’t like the direction the city has taken politically/culturally/etc. That group tilts red.

Some people are trying to say Virginia or Minnesota could be in play but I don’t buy it. I would have definitely put MN in the NH category if Walz wasn’t on the ticket, but he is. That should see her through up there.

Relatedly….

Dude when Florida is in play, have that from a Republican worker, the party is in real trouble.

I live in Florida. I am telling you, unequivocally, it is not in play. I will be astonished if she gets within 5 points.

[Jethro]

Only 6 electoral votes but they all count

The lesson here is Iowa has been solidly behind Trump, the Blue wave is about to happen. Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida also now in play.

[Flockwitt]

voted twice for Obama, and also twice for Bill Clinton

This. But the fact that Iowa is even in play is a positive for Harris at this stage. According to all the 'experts' it's not supposed to be. Still it's not over till it's over.

Similarly there’s a fair number suggesting places like Virginia are in play for Trump and that he’s ahead in Michigan. Truth is it’s clearly close but beyond that we can have no real idea, and unless something remarkable happens either Trump wins or he declares the election stolen

There have been a huge number of polls, many bogus - the point is that the adage that the only polls that matter are those within a week of the election is true enough, and in this case the poll referenced is the gold standard in pollsters who one month ago declared Iowa for Trump. This hasn't moved without good reason which is a positive for Harris. If she's managed to tap the voters who put Clinton and Obama into power she's done well which will have implications elsewhere - we're beyond the point of smoke and mirrors now.

[fishfoodie]

I'm just hoping that the margin of victory for Harris is enough that most of the rest of the GOP looks at the result & tells him that if he wants to challenge the result he is Shit.Out.Of.Luck, because they aren't going to follow him. I don't expect them to do it in any principle, but just from an animal survival instinct that these wankers always have.

They've been on a losing streak for years now because they've just done whatever dumb shit this deranged, rapist, felon wanted, & expecting things to get better without changing that is nuts

[Paddington Bear]

This. But the fact that Iowa is even in play is a positive for Harris at this stage. According to all the 'experts' it's not supposed to be. Still it's not over till it's over.

Similarly there’s a fair number suggesting places like Virginia are in play for Trump and that he’s ahead in Michigan. Truth is it’s clearly close but beyond that we can have no real idea, and unless something remarkable happens either Trump wins or he declares the election stolen

There have been a huge number of polls, many bogus - the point is that the adage that the only polls that matter are those within a week of the election is true enough, and in this case the poll referenced is the gold standard in pollsters who one month ago declared Iowa for Trump. This hasn't moved without good reason which is a positive for Harris. If she's managed to tap the voters who put Clinton and Obama into power she's done well which will have implications elsewhere - we're beyond the point of smoke and mirrors now.

I think that outcome is just as likely as Trump having energised lots of white working class people who don’t normally vote - which is something we’re told by his outriders is happening as well. Must admit I think a Harris landslide is very very unlikely. These gold standard polls should still be taken with a massive pinch of salt.

[Enzedder]

House of Cards was real??

[Flockwitt]

Similarly there’s a fair number suggesting places like Virginia are in play for Trump and that he’s ahead in Michigan. Truth is it’s clearly close but beyond that we can have no real idea, and unless something remarkable happens either Trump wins or he declares the election stolen

There have been a huge number of polls, many bogus - the point is that the adage that the only polls that matter are those within a week of the election is true enough, and in this case the poll referenced is the gold standard in pollsters who one month ago declared Iowa for Trump. This hasn't moved without good reason which is a positive for Harris. If she's managed to tap the voters who put Clinton and Obama into power she's done well which will have implications elsewhere - we're beyond the point of smoke and mirrors now.

I think that outcome is just as likely as Trump having energised lots of white working class people who don’t normally vote - which is something we’re told by his outriders is happening as well. Must admit I think a Harris landslide is very very unlikely. These gold standard polls should still be taken with a massive pinch of salt.

Not really. There is a difference between throwing a blanket opinion over something and selecting specific bits of information. This pollster got the 2016 election right when everybody else didn’t. She understands Trumpism. For her to make the readjustment she has a few days out from the election says something. Which doesn’t have to be a confident indication of a blue wave, far from it, but rather there are factors at play here contrary to the general vibe. US politics is complex and does vary from location to location.

Let’s see. Trump is certainly spouting plenty of hot air over the subject. He doesn’t like it one bit.

[Niegs]

One factor discussed re: Iowa is how badly Trump's last tariff battle with China affected farmers there. "We're not going back" might just speak to them.