Starmergeddon: They Came And Ate Us

[Paddington Bear]

Well different numbers, net migration is mostly legal. But yes agree there's no good options but crackdowns do just play to Reform who will promise to crackdown harder.

Voters who have immigration as a top concern won't vote Labour so they're really just boosting Farage.

Think this sort of debate is 10 years out of date and does not reflect just how out of hand legal migration has got, particularly in SE England.

Thank the Tories for that one - Brexit and uncontrolled legal immigration! London and the SE have the highest levels of immigrants in the UK but this is a reflection of it having a growing economy, one of the highest population growth rates, highest cost of living and where demand for workers is high.

However the NHS, social care and many other services/industries in the SE would completely collapse without immigrants filling poorly paid jobs and those highly specialist jobs where there are national shortages ie NHS Consultants. In all seriousness it is a difficult choice ie no immigrants = even worse NHS services, no one to look after your Grannie in her care home or feed her at home, no barrista to pour your coffee and less workers in the factories. Your call!

No argument as to the Tories being the primary culprits.

Disagree with just about everything else unfortunately - London’s economy has been pretty stagnant for a while now, a quick scan of grad job wages shows they are basically exactly where they were a decade ago when I was looking for them. London’s productivity has cratered since covid with little sign of recovery. London’s high population growth is entirely due to migration, which contributes to the high cost of living as you’re adding millions of people over 5 years to an already oversubscribed rental market. So that problem becomes circular.

Something like 1% of all visas issued last year related to work in the NHS - no one is suggesting a highly qualified consultant surgeon should struggle getting a visa if there’s a need and a vacancy. You could drastically reduce migration without ever touching an NHS worker. It is however a fact that as part of the Boris era relaxation of visas that there are significant numbers of people in the NHS who cannot speak English and are deeply under qualified. Check the medical disciplinary reports if you don’t believe this, or chat to NHS staff off the clock. The NHS sees fewer patients, dramatically fewer, than pre-covid despite having a dramatically higher operational budget. Part of this is due to low quality staff, a larger factor is admittedly a lack of capital investment.

So no immigrants (no one is suggesting this anyway) does not equal shit NHS. If someone comes in on a health and social care visa with 5 dependents as they could do until last year, they are taking far more out of the health and social care system than they could ever put in.

I get my coffee from a machine at work where I press a button or from a cafe on my local high street that employs local kids with learning difficulties. In any event this idea that service jobs can only be done by migrants is total bollocks as shown by any trip outside central London where the service staff are largely Brits. Brits don’t take these jobs in central because 1) they don’t live in the area and 2) the wages don’t justify the effort. Low wages in low skilled jobs are in large part a factor of supply and demand - we have a visa policy that gives businesses an almost inexhaustible supply of cheap labour, so these jobs will continue to be uneconomic for anyone who wants a quality of life with any dignity.

The social care sector is an interesting one - broadly the new arrivals have replaced Brits leaving the sector, suggesting that a government scheme to give them a pay rise may have had a better impact on retention.

All of this is slightly beside the point - well over 50% of post-2020 arrivals don’t work, in the NHS, a coffee shop or otherwise. It’s an utterly mad state of affairs, particularly when you see the hoops you need to jump through to try and bring in someone skilled who will work at a salary threshold where they would be economically beneficial. And we haven’t even begun talking about integration/social cohesion etc

[Slick]

Labour have announced people who arrive in the UK via "irregular crossings" will be unable to claim British citizenship.

Maybe a good deterrent, but Labour are falling into the same trap as the Tories did. By talking about immigration you play into Reforms hands. You can't out Reform Reform. And they have little policy leavers to stop the numbers going up.

I'm not sure that keeping quiet about immigration while overseeing record-breaking net migration figures would go any better.

I wouldn’t be focussing on it too much. Let Farage wank himself into a fury then ignore him completely. It only bites with a certain amount of people and I think that’s maxed out more or less. Press your air time on hi tech growth, education and investment in infrastructure.

I think that's bollocks to be honest.

How anyone can sit here now after Brexit and the rise and rise of Farage and say it's not really a big issue, is completely beyond me.

[Yeeb]

I'm not sure that keeping quiet about immigration while overseeing record-breaking net migration figures would go any better.

I wouldn’t be focussing on it too much. Let Farage wank himself into a fury then ignore him completely. It only bites with a certain amount of people and I think that’s maxed out more or less. Press your air time on hi tech growth, education and investment in infrastructure.

I think that's bollocks to be honest.

How anyone can sit here now after Brexit and the rise and rise of Farage and say it's not really a big issue, is completely beyond me.

Yep, he is bizarre - must be isolated where he lives as immigration and all things related has been by far the biggest single voter concern in the last decade , not bendy bananas or side of bus propaganda or any rubbish about sovereignty. Concerns on Murdered / raped children & poolshitters >>>>>>>> “hi tech growth, education and investment in infrastructure”



I think it’s now a question of when not if Farage & reform get into power, the world in many ways feels like Germany 100 years ago

[Paddington Bear]

I wouldn’t be focussing on it too much. Let Farage wank himself into a fury then ignore him completely. It only bites with a certain amount of people and I think that’s maxed out more or less. Press your air time on hi tech growth, education and investment in infrastructure.

I think that's bollocks to be honest.

How anyone can sit here now after Brexit and the rise and rise of Farage and say it's not really a big issue, is completely beyond me.

Yep, he is bizarre - must be isolated where he lives as immigration and all things related has been by far the biggest single voter concern in the last decade ,

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

[Yeeb]

I think that's bollocks to be honest.

How anyone can sit here now after Brexit and the rise and rise of Farage and say it's not really a big issue, is completely beyond me.

Yep, he is bizarre - must be isolated where he lives as immigration and all things related has been by far the biggest single voter concern in the last decade ,

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

You saying there is truth in that a poster moved there so that he didn’t have to live next to Pakistani origin family & was worried about the world his kids would grow up in ?
I had heard this but hadn’t believed it

[Raggs]

Labour are never going to out reform, reform though. Especially as they can spout any bollocks they like with no fear of actually getting elected, and if they are, they simply sink the country as we can see the orange one doing across the pond.

It's not that immigration issues aren't important, it's just there's no electoral reason to try and do performative nonsense with it.

[dpedin]

There will inevitably be a % of lazy or money grabbers in both GP and dentistry, as there is in every industry, however the accusation of laziness isn't really one borne out by the facts I'm afraid.

Interesting stats, thank-you.

However my point still stands: I see lazy GPs at my surgery (my boss's wife is the practice manager and she wants to throttle all 11 GPs where she works because they're "workshy cnuts"), plus my dentist has been taken over by 5 Thai women who spend 14 secs looking in your mouth and insisting you pay before you even turn up for the appointment. I have to fight to get an x-ray every 2 years!

My local NHS Authority is fucking shite and everyone round here bitches about "the immigrants taking all our appointments" incessantly.

Problem is over-generalising and extrapolating from personal experiences which are strongly influenced by ones own prejudices, biases and lack of knowledge/understanding of the full situation. I suspect a good chunk of the GPs and dentists appointments are delivered by immigrants? The data would suggest this is highly likely - I don't suppose there is much bitching about all these immigrants delivering our GP and dental services then or does everyone wait longer to see a 'non immigrant' dentist or doctor?

PS Given the views you say are prevalent then if I was an immigrant Thai woman, which I presume you mean dentist, then I would also demand payment up front for any services I am going to deliver! I would also suggest that regular x-rays which may not be required isn't a good idea, unless that is there is good clinical reason?

[dpedin]

I think that's bollocks to be honest.

How anyone can sit here now after Brexit and the rise and rise of Farage and say it's not really a big issue, is completely beyond me.

Yep, he is bizarre - must be isolated where he lives as immigration and all things related has been by far the biggest single voter concern in the last decade ,

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

[Yeeb]

Yep, he is bizarre - must be isolated where he lives as immigration and all things related has been by far the biggest single voter concern in the last decade ,

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

No country needs more immigration , Scotland has 150k unemployed & inactive for a start you could perhaps make qualified ?
There is a obsession for maintaining growth rates around the world , would ease housing costs for one of total pop decreases locally

[Raggs]

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

No country needs more immigration , Scotland has 150k unemployed & inactive for a start you could perhaps make qualified ?
There is a obsession for maintaining growth rates around the world , would ease housing costs for one of total pop decreases locally

As long as you kill off the ever growing proportion that makes up the elderly, that could work.

[C T]

Yep, he is bizarre - must be isolated where he lives as immigration and all things related has been by far the biggest single voter concern in the last decade ,

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

Slight de-railing, hoping you can fill an ignorance gap I have. I've never quite understood the 2.1 figure. Is that not essentially the number to ensure population growth? Feels like population growth is not what the world needs.

[Raggs]

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

Slight de-railing, hoping you can fill an ignorance gap I have. I've never quite understood the 2.1 figure. Is that not essentially the number to ensure population growth? Feels like population growth is not what the world needs.

The 0.1 is to take into account those who die before having children themselves.

[Paddington Bear]

Yep, he is bizarre - must be isolated where he lives as immigration and all things related has been by far the biggest single voter concern in the last decade ,

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

No real disagreement, as I say my issue is around quality and quantity not the principle of migration.

I quite genuinely think there is a very broad consensus across the country in favour of limited high skilled immigration, visas available for young people to experience our country and culture for a couple of years, and a fair and compassionate humanitarian system.

Getting there requires torching a system that delivers very very unfavourable outcomes and encourages bad actors whilst pissing off good ones.

[C T]

Immigration must be pretty damn close to the top of this list of peoples concerns, if not the top.

The problem is that it's almost impossible to debate the topic. People on the anti side of the argument can stray into the "well, they're just a bit different to us" side of things, while people on the pro (of which I am one) want to scream "Racist" at every opportunity.

I'm not convinced that it is immigration in itself that's the problem.

For example, I presume that most people don't have a problem with people coming here and working/paying tax? Contributing I guess is a better term. And that in itself would perhaps indicate that they are needed.

Is the issue more freeloading? In which case I agree, but I also have a problem with freeloading born and bred, bonified Brits.

[Raggs]

Immigration must be pretty damn close to the top of this list of peoples concerns, if not the top.

The problem is that it's almost impossible to debate the topic. People on the anti side of the argument can stray into the "well, they're just a bit different to us" side of things, while people on the pro (of which I am one) want to scream "Racist" at every opportunity.

I'm not convinced that it is immigration in itself that's the problem.

For example, I presume that most people don't have a problem with people coming here and working/paying tax? Contributing I guess is a better term. And that in itself would perhaps indicate that they are needed.

Is the issue more freeloading? In which case I agree, but I also have a problem with freeloading born and bred, bonified Brits.

It's not top of my list...

I don't think it's top of a lot of peoples, it's just it's top of some very noisy people, which means everyone ends up discussing it, whether pro/anti etc.

[I like neeps]

Immigration must be pretty damn close to the top of this list of peoples concerns, if not the top.

The problem is that it's almost impossible to debate the topic. People on the anti side of the argument can stray into the "well, they're just a bit different to us" side of things, while people on the pro (of which I am one) want to scream "Racist" at every opportunity.

I'm not convinced that it is immigration in itself that's the problem.

For example, I presume that most people don't have a problem with people coming here and working/paying tax? Contributing I guess is a better term. And that in itself would perhaps indicate that they are needed.

Is the issue more freeloading? In which case I agree, but I also have a problem with freeloading born and bred, bonified Brits.

It's not type of my list...

I don't think it's top of a lot of peoples, it's just it's top of some very noisy people, which means everyone ends up discussing it, whether pro/anti etc.

This discussion started as I said strategically it was an error for Labour to take on Reform on small boats policy because as the Tories found out they will lose. People who rate small boats and immigration as their top issue won't vote Labour anyway. So giving Farage an open platform to tee off about how much more tough than Labour is just politically is a misstep.

Not that immigration isn't an issue. Labour should focus on legal migration as politically illegal migration is caused by geopolitical factors they nor the Tories can control. So all they do is play into Farage's hands. How does that end? Look at the Tories.

[SaintK]

Just who the fuck does this twat think he is?

[Tichtheid]

Just who the fuck does this twat think he is?

Their beer's shite too


plus, he does seem to be a publicity-hungry tosser

"punk" my arse

[Slick]

Yep, he is bizarre - must be isolated where he lives as immigration and all things related has been by far the biggest single voter concern in the last decade ,

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

As usual you give a rather sanitised view of Scotland. How would you explain the rise of Reform here which has pretty much zero party machinery?

And like Scottish government, statements such as “we would welcome more immigration” is just fluffy nonsense. I’m sure if you walked around any city in Scotland you would get plenty of objection to immigration.

Do we need it? Yes. But do we need it at the relative scale and unmanaged way as parts of England, no.

[Yeeb]

Just who the fuck does this twat think he is?

Somebody who is very adept at gaining disruptive marketing and media coverage . I admire how he manages to create so much noise so cheaply, it’s almost as if he wants extra awareness for his brand …

[Tichtheid]

There are few terms more vomit-inducing than the self-regarding "disruptor"

The vanity involved is off the scale.

[Yeeb]

There are few terms more vomit-inducing than the self-regarding "disruptor"

The vanity involved is off the scale.

100% agree
He will have been coached about this or paid to go on a course or read some books or blogs on how to do this & leverage social media . He will be lapping up every Trump and musk activity and see if he can copy it. He is kind of a opposite to Gary linekar

[I like neeps]

Just who the fuck does this twat think he is?

Shadow Doge is so cringe, embarrassing even for him.

The Spectator has launched Spectator Project Against Frivolous Funding (Spaff) in homage to Musk. At least Spaff has some British humour.

[SaintK]

Just who the fuck does this twat think he is?

Somebody who is very adept at gaining disruptive marketing and media coverage . I admire how he manages to create so much noise so cheaply, it’s almost as if he wants extra awareness for his brand …

He is also an utter cunt who happens to be a major shareholder in a company where managers have been instructed not to leave him alone with young female members of staff.
I'm sure you do admire him.

[Yeeb]

Just who the fuck does this twat think he is?

Somebody who is very adept at gaining disruptive marketing and media coverage . I admire how he manages to create so much noise so cheaply, it’s almost as if he wants extra awareness for his brand …

He is also an utter cunt who happens to be a major shareholder in a company where managers have been instructed not to leave him alone with young female members of staff.
I'm sure you do admire him.

Don’t be a dick now , I’m kind of on your side , and it’s people like you that would drink his beer as well as quote him on forums and giving him more exposure

[SaintK]

Don’t be a dick now , I’m kind of on your side , and it’s people like you that would drink his beer as well as quote him on forums and giving him more exposure

Nope don't drink the piss he produces and I'm not sure quoting him to 20 or so posters on a small rugby forum will give him much more exposure than he has brought on himself with his aggressive and boorish behaviour to young female staff

[dpedin]

It’s notable it is *often* Scottish posters leading the way on migration talking points, Scotland has not had any meaningful migration and there’s areas that could really use it. Entirely different kettle of fish to England. Glasgow has a smaller % Asian population than the small town I grew up in!

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

As usual you give a rather sanitised view of Scotland. How would you explain the rise of Reform here which has pretty much zero party machinery?

And like Scottish government, statements such as “we would welcome more immigration” is just fluffy nonsense. I’m sure if you walked around any city in Scotland you would get plenty of objection to immigration.

Do we need it? Yes. But do we need it at the relative scale and unmanaged way as parts of England, no.

I dont think I mentioned levels of immigration in my post nor suggested it should be 'at the relative scale and unmanaged way as parts of England'. I am not sure how my post was sanitized when all I did was present some facts & figures and suggested that if we dont have immigration then given our fertility rate we run short of working age population and we suffer economically as a result.

I deliberately made no reference to the politics of the issue, nor of Reform. I agree there are different views of immigration in Scotland and we have our fair share of xenophobic, bigoted twats but I also remember Farage was run out of town when last in Scotland.

Businesses in Scotland are crying out for more staff, many have suffered markedly, such as hospitality, because of Brexit and the loss of EU workers coming here under FoM. The NHS and social care are also desperate for staff and are actively trying to recruit staff from abroad to fill the gaps in their workforces. It is not fluffy nonsense, it is basic economics!

[dpedin]

There will inevitably be a % of lazy or money grabbers in both GP and dentistry, as there is in every industry, however the accusation of laziness isn't really one borne out by the facts I'm afraid.

Interesting stats, thank-you.

However my point still stands: I see lazy GPs at my surgery (my boss's wife is the practice manager and she wants to throttle all 11 GPs where she works because they're "workshy cnuts"), plus my dentist has been taken over by 5 Thai women who spend 14 secs looking in your mouth and insisting you pay before you even turn up for the appointment. I have to fight to get an x-ray every 2 years!

My local NHS Authority is fucking shite and everyone round here bitches about "the immigrants taking all our appointments" incessantly.

Problem is over-generalising and extrapolating from personal experiences which are strongly influenced by ones own prejudices, biases and lack of knowledge/understanding of the full situation. I suspect a good chunk of the GPs and dentists appointments are delivered by immigrants? The data would suggest this is highly likely - I don't suppose there is much bitching about all these immigrants delivering our GP and dental services then or does everyone wait longer to see a 'non immigrant' dentist or doctor?

PS Given the views you say are prevalent then if I was an immigrant Thai woman, which I presume you mean dentist, then I would also demand payment up front for any services I am going to deliver! I would also suggest that regular x-rays which may not be required isn't a good idea, unless that is there is good clinical reason?

As it happens there is an article about dentistry in the Guardian today!

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... xodus-fees

[dpedin]

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

Slight de-railing, hoping you can fill an ignorance gap I have. I've never quite understood the 2.1 figure. Is that not essentially the number to ensure population growth? Feels like population growth is not what the world needs.

The 0.1 is to take into account those who die before having children themselves.

Or who cannot or voluntary decide for whatever reason not to have children.

A fertility rate of 2.1 will sustain the population size, rate of less than 2.1 will result in populations getting smaller. In Scotland and the UK more generally a falling fertility rate will skew the population demographics so that the ratio of working age to retired folk changes ie fewer working age folk sustaining more retired folk. This quickly becomes economically unsustainable. The UK Gov attempted to address this by increasing retiral age to 68 by 2044 but this in itself won't address the issue. Some would argue this is why the last Gov had an 'open door' immigration policy - immigrants, who tend to be younger, come to the UK mostly for work. However as others have argued this has a wide range of other societal impacts if not managed properly, and it wasnt!

[Slick]

Scotland has 10% of folk born outside UK compared with 16% UK average. However the reality for Scotland is that we actually need and would welcome higher levels of immigration - our fertility rate is currently 1.3 births way below the 2.1 required to sustain our working population. Brexit hit Scotland hard with EU FoM providing a good source of young qualified workers. They have all but disappeared now. Our problem is the negative view of immigration in the rest of the UK presents us with a major economic issue for the future! We need more immigration.

As usual you give a rather sanitised view of Scotland. How would you explain the rise of Reform here which has pretty much zero party machinery?

And like Scottish government, statements such as “we would welcome more immigration” is just fluffy nonsense. I’m sure if you walked around any city in Scotland you would get plenty of objection to immigration.

Do we need it? Yes. But do we need it at the relative scale and unmanaged way as parts of England, no.

I dont think I mentioned levels of immigration in my post nor suggested it should be 'at the relative scale and unmanaged way as parts of England'. I am not sure how my post was sanitized when all I did was present some facts & figures and suggested that if we dont have immigration then given our fertility rate we run short of working age population and we suffer economically as a result.

I deliberately made no reference to the politics of the issue, nor of Reform. I agree there are different views of immigration in Scotland and we have our fair share of xenophobic, bigoted twats but I also remember Farage was run out of town when last in Scotland.

Businesses in Scotland are crying out for more staff, many have suffered markedly, such as hospitality, because of Brexit and the loss of EU workers coming here under FoM. The NHS and social care are also desperate for staff and are actively trying to recruit staff from abroad to fill the gaps in their workforces. It is not fluffy nonsense, it is basic economics!

I agree with pretty much everything in this updated version.

[Yeeb]

Was in a meeting yesterday and the topic of Uk tax came up, my lefty scouse boss mentioned how people were being taxed more so had less avail to buy our lovely products , and then the chief finance nerd said actually overall tax burden had changed little but tax harvests had grown so in fact that’s why our premium products are doing well when our value products have done less well. (Not sole reasons of course)

A little digging found this so they were both correct:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... l-bulletin

Tax as a % rate has gone up but not by very much , but tax harvests seem to have risen a lot since Brexit and Covid , which is somewhat surprising - I hadn’t realised Starmer had inherited such a rosy financial picture as this . Labour do seem to get these comfy armchairs historically , certainly the general current mood does not feel comfortable according to any source.

The breakdown of the taxes is also interesting (at least to an Economist such as myself) - those harvests seem to be rising nicely except for tobacco duties (whose taxation is meant as a deterrent for health externalities) and fuel duty (which just seems a bit of a needless cost then if the harvests are not growing)

[JM2K6]

Immigration must be pretty damn close to the top of this list of peoples concerns, if not the top.

The problem is that it's almost impossible to debate the topic. People on the anti side of the argument can stray into the "well, they're just a bit different to us" side of things, while people on the pro (of which I am one) want to scream "Racist" at every opportunity.

I'm not convinced that it is immigration in itself that's the problem.

For example, I presume that most people don't have a problem with people coming here and working/paying tax? Contributing I guess is a better term. And that in itself would perhaps indicate that they are needed.

Is the issue more freeloading? In which case I agree, but I also have a problem with freeloading born and bred, bonified Brits.

It's not type of my list...

I don't think it's top of a lot of peoples, it's just it's top of some very noisy people, which means everyone ends up discussing it, whether pro/anti etc.

This discussion started as I said strategically it was an error for Labour to take on Reform on small boats policy because as the Tories found out they will lose. People who rate small boats and immigration as their top issue won't vote Labour anyway. So giving Farage an open platform to tee off about how much more tough than Labour is just politically is a misstep.

Not that immigration isn't an issue. Labour should focus on legal migration as politically illegal migration is caused by geopolitical factors they nor the Tories can control. So all they do is play into Farage's hands. How does that end? Look at the Tories.

You're being very kind to Labour here. They're running the Tory playbook on Tory policies while making the same mistakes as the Tories. It's grim stuff.

There's no real intent to produce a long term solution (it would at least involve opening safe routes) and they are consistently campaigning and fighting their image problems. The prevailing right wingers in power in Labour are doing one thing extremely well, and that's abandoning most of their base in order to chase the people who will find Reform more to their tastes in any event. Reeves, McSweeney, Streeting, and Starmer are dipshits.

Even the arguably good things they're trying to do are being couched in hostile terms. It's exhausting and combative and ultimately self defeating. It's not going to convince headbangers to trust them and it definitely will make regular Labour voters lose trust in them.

[I like neeps]

It's not type of my list...

I don't think it's top of a lot of peoples, it's just it's top of some very noisy people, which means everyone ends up discussing it, whether pro/anti etc.

This discussion started as I said strategically it was an error for Labour to take on Reform on small boats policy because as the Tories found out they will lose. People who rate small boats and immigration as their top issue won't vote Labour anyway. So giving Farage an open platform to tee off about how much more tough than Labour is just politically is a misstep.

Not that immigration isn't an issue. Labour should focus on legal migration as politically illegal migration is caused by geopolitical factors they nor the Tories can control. So all they do is play into Farage's hands. How does that end? Look at the Tories.

You're being very kind to Labour here. They're running the Tory playbook on Tory policies while making the same mistakes as the Tories. It's grim stuff.

There's no real intent to produce a long term solution (it would at least involve opening safe routes) and they are consistently campaigning and fighting their image problems. The prevailing right wingers in power in Labour are doing one thing extremely well, and that's abandoning most of their base in order to chase the people who will find Reform more to their tastes in any event. Reeves, McSweeney, Streeting, and Starmer are dipshits.

Even the arguably good things they're trying to do are being couched in hostile terms. It's exhausting and combative and ultimately self defeating. It's not going to convince headbangers to trust them and it definitely will make regular Labour voters lose trust in them.

Couldn't agree more JMK ... but it's unusual I get called kind to Labour .

[dpedin]

As usual you give a rather sanitised view of Scotland. How would you explain the rise of Reform here which has pretty much zero party machinery?

And like Scottish government, statements such as “we would welcome more immigration” is just fluffy nonsense. I’m sure if you walked around any city in Scotland you would get plenty of objection to immigration.

Do we need it? Yes. But do we need it at the relative scale and unmanaged way as parts of England, no.

I dont think I mentioned levels of immigration in my post nor suggested it should be 'at the relative scale and unmanaged way as parts of England'. I am not sure how my post was sanitized when all I did was present some facts & figures and suggested that if we dont have immigration then given our fertility rate we run short of working age population and we suffer economically as a result.

I deliberately made no reference to the politics of the issue, nor of Reform. I agree there are different views of immigration in Scotland and we have our fair share of xenophobic, bigoted twats but I also remember Farage was run out of town when last in Scotland.

Businesses in Scotland are crying out for more staff, many have suffered markedly, such as hospitality, because of Brexit and the loss of EU workers coming here under FoM. The NHS and social care are also desperate for staff and are actively trying to recruit staff from abroad to fill the gaps in their workforces. It is not fluffy nonsense, it is basic economics!

I agree with pretty much everything in this updated version.

Interesting article on BBC about falling school rolls in Scotland, ties in with discussions above.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx9n14wgr0o

[Raggs]

Several of the primary schools near me are due to close soon. There's just not the numbers. Quite a few have already combined years 1 and 2 where possible.

[sockwithaticket]

There's no silver bullet to birth rates, but it's quite clear that the socio-economic conditions that have been allowed to prevail are doing them no favours whatsoever.

The genie is out of the bottle on not having children, it's clearly more normalised than it once was and plenty are happy to relax into that new normal and be dual income no kids or single income no kids. That said there are plenty of people who, however much they might want children, don't feel able to get started or will have fewer children than they might have done because they can't afford otherwise.

If rent, sustenance, utilities and transportation are claiming basically everything the government doesn't take, where are people going to find the money for kids? I've a friend who planned for one and ended up pregnant with twins. Threw all their financial planning out of the window. Another friend would like 3 or 4, but got the snip after 2 because he just can't see a route to an income that would sustain the additional children any time soon.

[Slick]

There's no silver bullet to birth rates, but it's quite clear that the socio-economic conditions that have been allowed to prevail are doing them no favours whatsoever.

The genie is out of the bottle on not having children, it's clearly more normalised than it once was and plenty are happy to relax into that new normal and be dual income no kids or single income no kids. That said there are plenty of people who, however much they might want children, don't feel able to get started or will have fewer children than they might have done because they can't afford otherwise.

If rent, sustenance, utilities and transportation are claiming basically everything the government doesn't take, where are people going to find the money for kids? I've a friend who planned for one and ended up pregnant with twins. Threw all their financial planning out of the window. Another friend would like 3 or 4, but got the snip after 2 because he just can't see a route to an income that would sustain the additional children any time soon.

You just kind of get on with it to be honest

[dpedin]

There's no silver bullet to birth rates, but it's quite clear that the socio-economic conditions that have been allowed to prevail are doing them no favours whatsoever.

The genie is out of the bottle on not having children, it's clearly more normalised than it once was and plenty are happy to relax into that new normal and be dual income no kids or single income no kids. That said there are plenty of people who, however much they might want children, don't feel able to get started or will have fewer children than they might have done because they can't afford otherwise.

If rent, sustenance, utilities and transportation are claiming basically everything the government doesn't take, where are people going to find the money for kids? I've a friend who planned for one and ended up pregnant with twins. Threw all their financial planning out of the window. Another friend would like 3 or 4, but got the snip after 2 because he just can't see a route to an income that would sustain the additional children any time soon.

You just kind of get on with it to be honest

The issue is that for the short to medium term at least the demographics are baked in and we need a Gov that actually acknowledges it and develops policies to address it. However with the historical birth rates and increasing number of 'baby boomers' reaching their 70s and 80s it is going to be very, very difficult for the Gov and the economy to sustain and pay for services like the NHS, Social care, pensions, infrastructure, etc from a shrinking working population and increasing numbers and levels of dependency of the old. Even if we could afford the services we won't be able to staff them! Hence the need for immigration.

We have a number of options, not mutually exclusive, I suppose?

First, we could try and increase the Fertility Rate and encourage more folk to have more babies - as others have pointed out this is very difficult and many other countries have tried and failed to do this. Having babies is expensive and increasingly so given issues such as increasing housing prices. It will also take a long time, a generation, to shift attitudes and behaviors and for an increase in babies to feed through into the workforce.. It would require a pretty radical shift in thinking which I cant see any of the parties making.

Secondly we can turn off immigration, aim for net zero levels, and begin to redesign our economy and services around an increasingly elderly population for the next 20+ years. This would require even more radical thinking and changes to how we all work and live and none of the political parties are going to suggest we plan for potential of a managed decline in GDP and static or falling living standards at best for a few decades

Thirdly we import workers to fill the gaps in the workforce that we cant fill from within our population. This is our current solution to tackling the issue ut does mean increasing population as we bring in those of a working age in order to balance out, look after and pay for the growth in our older population. Problem is many, for a range of reasonable but for some very dodgy reasons, see immigration or how it has been done, as a 'bad thing' The focus on the 'small boats', which are a very minor contributor to immigration numbers, being a focus for all the bad actors to hang their prejudices on. We of course shot ourselves in both feet with Brexit which stupidly cut off a supply of young, educated and flexible workers overnight. No government, apart from the Scottish Government, have actually tried to have a sensible discussion about immigration being not just a good thing but a necessary thing. The rest are all fighting amongst themselves to try and make themselves look 'hard' on immigration in order to fight off the populist Farage racists come the next election. Setting targets in the 10,000s is just infantile and to completely ignore the economic realities! JD Vance didnt help the debate yesterday but with a fertility rate of 1.66 in the US they too will realize they need immigration to sustain and grow their economy, as they always have done! However there is a lot to be done around how we manage immigration better after the 'open door' policy of the last Gov but changing the tone of the debate is going to very challenging!

There is not going to be a sensible debate about the impact of falling fertility rates in the UK and the options above. We will continue to pick the easiest option which will be high levels of immigration but with ad nauseam debates and changes about who, where they come from, how useful they are to the economy, what colour is their skin, which religion are they, etc. Bottom line - immigration is here to stay and for short to medium term in fairly large numbers!

[Paddington Bear]

Again though, the migration we are actually experiencing *exacerbates* our dependency ratio, and so much of this analysis rests on the idea that immigrants don’t age and get ill

[Slick]

Quite, if we just carry on as we are we just shoving an even bigger problem further down the line. In things like care and the NHS we are already in a never ending cycle of bringing in people to fill the poorly paid positions who either leave when something better comes up or stop working when their dependents follow and we have to start again.

Just with reference to SG and their stance, as has been said before it’s easy to be so positive about all aspects of immigration if you don’t really have any. Is there actually any country in the world that has successfully integrated a large number of immigrants? I’m really struggling to think of any and it’s what slightly infuriates me about the SG propaganda, let’s have lots of immigration and everything will be brilliant, but with evidence in just about every country pointing to it not being. We will be different of course