Sheesh, it's going to to be tough to respond to that post because there's a bunch of interesting ideas going to various directions. All interesting discussions in their own right and all valid points, but each almost justifies and post or even thread of their own.
_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 10:24 am
SA is heading towards 40% unemployment, already above that on the expanded definition, some provinces are pushing past 60% unemployment. It isn't a remotely sustainable economic position, most countries would've blown up already if they had SA's economic numbers. It's frankly completely remarkable the country functions as well as it does.
If the ANC end up in a position where they lose face then it's on them, it's entirely avoidable. What is your scenario where no reforms ever happen?
It's a shitshow. Reforms are needed. The staus quo is not sustainable and the fact the finance minister was even considering increasing VAT to try and fill the hole in the budget just shows how desperate things are. Growth is too slow, the tax base is shrinking and unemployment keeps rising and 15 years in load shedding is still stifling business. We need foreign investment badly and the ANC's BEE policies and land reform policies are just scaring away the little capital that is floating around in these uncertain times.
But the USA cutting off USAID and threatening AGOA and causing a global recessing isn't going to help change this. It just gives the ANC a scapegoat.
_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 10:24 amSome of that is true, but there's limits to how far China can go. The US$ isn't going to be replaced as the reserve currency for example, because whatever people think of Uncle Sam they do all trust him. There's a reason Chinese elites store their wealth offshore mostly in US$ and hard assets (property) in Western countries. There's a reason Russia resorted to literally flying gold bars around in planes to conduct international trade after they were sanctioned. But lets imagine China does challenge more, the US can blockade them quite far out, the Chinese navy is built to invade Taiwan not break through the Strait of Malacca against US air/sea/land assets.
The use of the USD as the global reserve currency was based on the assumption that the USA is a rational actor and would never default on their debt obligations. That assumption is out the window under Trump and many countries are trying to dump their US Bonds. If Trump is willing to tear up treaties left, right and center, who is going to stop him if the serial business failure who has undergone multiple bankruptcies just decides not to pay? Which global institution do Japan and China and other holders of US Bonds appeal to? The whole system was built on trust and the reputation of the USA as a global leader and they are actively antogonising and pushing away all their followers. China will happily fill the power vaccuum.
Could the US Navy crush China's? Almost definitely, but then what? Invade China? Blockade their ports and start WW3? What's the end game here?
_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 10:24 amThat's true and what I expect. But there are contradictions in their position. Why do they want to be in a coalition with the DA then? Why is Malema unsuccessful? Why is Zuma hated if he loves Putin so much? South Africans aren't anti-Western they idolise it if anything.
Some in the ANC think they can add Malema and Zuma back into the ANC and get more votes, but Malema and Zuma are both electoral toxic waste (both smaller than the DA). Add them into the ANC and you only get people prepared to vote for Malema and Zuma, likely you make the ANC significantly smaller.[/quote]
There are always contradictions in everything the ANC says or does. The GNU with the DA was an arranged marriage because Malema and Zuma were too toxic politically. Nothing more, nothing less. Those who think letting Zuma and Malema back into the ANC will work are crazy.
_Os_ wrote: Thu May 22, 2025 10:24 amThey're down to 6.5m voters (DA on 4m) out of an adult population of around 40m. Polling is showing about 25% of that 6.5m is starting to float away. Granted most South Africans don't vote, but they're on their last legs if they don't reform.
Not disagreeing with you. Just saying they won't reform and the quicker we get them to fade into obscurity the better. The stunt by Trump, and the coverage it has generated locally, will, in my estimation at least, prolong that inevitable outcome. Many of those voters how have disengaged previously and don't really follow politics just see Trump attacking SA and Cyril not backing down and that will be enough to get them to participate in the next election.