So, coronavirus...

Where goats go to escape
User avatar
tabascoboy
Posts: 6474
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:22 am
Location: 曇りの街

tc27 wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:46 am Just in case UK posters are not aware anyone over 60 should now be able to get an appointment and you don't need to wait to be asked:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/
Over 55's soon I hope!
tc27
Posts: 2532
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:18 pm

tabascoboy wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:43 am
tc27 wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:46 am Just in case UK posters are not aware anyone over 60 should now be able to get an appointment and you don't need to wait to be asked:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/
Over 55's soon I hope!
Very soon - government sources saying they expect the rate to double in March!
Biffer
Posts: 9142
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

tc27 wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:50 am
tabascoboy wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:43 am
tc27 wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:46 am Just in case UK posters are not aware anyone over 60 should now be able to get an appointment and you don't need to wait to be asked:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/
Over 55's soon I hope!
Very soon - government sources saying they expect the rate to double in March!
and to be clear, that's double the rate we were going earlier, not the reduced rate of the last week or two.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
walletoraccess
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:26 am

at the grand old age of 63 I had my first AZ injection yesterday late afternoon
Other than a sore are around the injection site , no side effects
The last 24 hour numbers they use - up to what time do they include?
Ovals
Posts: 1491
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:52 pm

walletoraccess wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:21 pm at the grand old age of 63 I had my first AZ injection yesterday late afternoon
Other than a sore are around the injection site , no side effects
The last 24 hour numbers they use - up to what time do they include?
I had mine 20 days ago - so just coming up to the point where it becomes very effective. :cool: Mrs Ovals is a week behind.

Hope they can get the vax rate up - they'll need to start doing mass 2nd jabs soon - so we'll need to double the rate to continue the brilliant progress of getting the next groups vaxxed - and those groups are probably more likely spread the virus than the older groups.
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

Only 205K doses yesterday, but that's actually an increase on last week
dpedin
Posts: 2975
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

SaintK wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:32 am
Sandstorm wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:13 am
tc27 wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:53 am Brazil variant is here just in time for the first lockdown easing.



Obviously the need to allow people to fly in from Brazil in February was more important than attempting to keep the variant out.
Some people have also avoided being "tagged as flying in from Brazil" by going Rio - JFK - Heathrow. They bragged about it on Twitter.
Someone else suspected they had Covid, travelled anyway, landed in UK, had a test and then gave false address info, so UK Police can't find them.

The border control in the UK is a fucking farce!
So who is correct?
The politicians
Zahawi rejected claims the government had dithered when it came to imposing hotel quarantine for arrivals from high-risk countries. He said:
I would say to you that the border controls that we have are pretty stringent. Even countries that had hotel quarantine, like Australia, still have to deal with the variants actually challenging them in the same way they challenge us.
Or the scientists?
Dr Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London, told BBC Breakfast this morning that the discovery of the P1 Brazil variant in England highlighted the “failures in quarantine policy”. She said:
Sage has advised that, unless we had a comprehensive, managed quarantine policy at our borders, something like this would happen. But unfortunately it’s something that we’ve been quite complacent about; now we’re just seeing the consequences of that.
Only 1% of everyone who flies into the UK are put into a Quarantine Hotel, the rest 99%, are free to travel by public transport to wherever they are going. They are all supposed to self isolate but who knows if they do, many are not checked on. Watch the Home Affairs Committee session chaired by Yvette Cooper, it is very illuminating and somewhat worrying.
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

Empirical data continues to flow in from the UK. By definition, this does almost exclusively from the highest at risk groups, so far and it's very encouraging. A single shot of either AZ or PF reduces Covid hospitalisation by 80% in over 80s

A single shot of PF reduces deaths from Covid in over 80s by 83% (not enough data yet from AZ as it started a month later)

In over 70s, a single shot reduces symptomatic Covid by over 60%

Within a percentage point or 2, both vaccines appear to perform the same - and ahead of the trial results.
dpedin
Posts: 2975
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Saint wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:31 pm Empirical data continues to flow in from the UK. By definition, this does almost exclusively from the highest at risk groups, so far and it's very encouraging. A single shot of either AZ or PF reduces Covid hospitalisation by 80% in over 80s

A single shot of PF reduces deaths from Covid in over 80s by 83% (not enough data yet from AZ as it started a month later)

In over 70s, a single shot reduces symptomatic Covid by over 60%

Within a percentage point or 2, both vaccines appear to perform the same - and ahead of the trial results.
Excellent news!
dkm57
Posts: 606
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:08 pm

Got my appointment for 1st jab on Friday
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 10884
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:05 pm
Location: England

dkm57 wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:24 pm Got my appointment for 1st jab on Friday
:clap:
User avatar
Denny Crane
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:29 pm

Ex BBC & ITV reporter Anna Brees talking to Daily Mail Journalist David Rose about breaking the media protocols of silence on Ivermectin. With Dr Tess Lawrie and Dr Pierre Kory

As a rule we disbelieve all the facts and theories for which we have no use.”
― William James
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

dpedin wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:58 pm
Saint wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:31 pm Empirical data continues to flow in from the UK. By definition, this does almost exclusively from the highest at risk groups, so far and it's very encouraging. A single shot of either AZ or PF reduces Covid hospitalisation by 80% in over 80s

A single shot of PF reduces deaths from Covid in over 80s by 83% (not enough data yet from AZ as it started a month later)

In over 70s, a single shot reduces symptomatic Covid by over 60%

Within a percentage point or 2, both vaccines appear to perform the same - and ahead of the trial results.
Excellent news!
It;s all highly suggestive that the J&J vaccine probably needs to be delivered as a double dose as well for long term efficacy. J&J are still running trials as to the efficacy on a double dose regime
User avatar
Insane_Homer
Posts: 5389
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:14 pm
Location: Leafy Surrey

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Image
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
tc27
Posts: 2532
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:18 pm

Seems little justification for not approving AZ for over 65s now surely? The mass data from the UK now surely answering any concerns over the lack of data from the trials?

France has in fact just approved it.
Last edited by tc27 on Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
tc27
Posts: 2532
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:18 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:14 am Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Image
Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:14 am Seems little justification for not approving AZ for over 65s now surely? The mass data from the UK now surely answering any concerns over the lack of data from the trials?

France has in fact just approved it.
No peer review yet - so form a German or French perspective it's not really changed until they analyse the data fully. They're being ultra-cautious, and have made a bit of a rod for their own back now - even if they were to approve I think it likely many people will actually refuse an AZ jab
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:16 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:14 am Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Image
Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable
Agreed. The appearance and spread of the Kent variant caught everyone out a bit and certainly impact that graph, although the Christmas plans were optimistic regardless
User avatar
Insane_Homer
Posts: 5389
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:14 pm
Location: Leafy Surrey

tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:16 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:14 am Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...
Spoiler
Show
Image
Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable
The H69/V70 started detectable growth in Aug 2020. Strangely Demark seemed to get it under control in Nov, we didn't.
uk variant.JPG
uk variant.JPG (37.27 KiB) Viewed 936 times
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
Dogbert
Posts: 703
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:32 am

tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:16 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:14 am Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Image
Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable
Scotland reaps dividend of Covid response that diverged from England’s
Imposing a winter lockdown earlier and prioritising care home vaccinations have kept death rate lower

https://www.ft.com/content/e1eddd2f-cb0 ... 83810fae8d
Lager & Lime - we don't do cocktails
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:28 am
tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:16 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:14 am Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...
Spoiler
Show
Image
Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable
The H69/V70 started detectable growth in Aug 2020. Strangely Demark seemed to get it under control in Nov, we didn't.
uk variant.JPG
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf
We were in lockdown 2 when it became very apparent what this was - as while Covid numbers were dropping everywhere else, they didn't drop in Kent. I don;t think continuing lockdown 2 would have been all that viable as people would have simply ignored it. It was already falling apart as it was
dpedin
Posts: 2975
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

Saint wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:24 am
tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:16 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:14 am Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Image
Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable
Agreed. The appearance and spread of the Kent variant caught everyone out a bit and certainly impact that graph, although the Christmas plans were optimistic regardless
They knew about the Kent variant in early/mid December and the modelling had been done to show the impact of it by then but the Blonde Bumblecunt delayed changing the Xmas message until the last minute and by that time it was too late. Folk had booked their train tickets and ordered the large turkey, and went ahead with their plans anyway. To compound matters he then decided to have a Gov sponsored super spreader event by getting kids to go back to school for a single day in early January. The more cynical of us would suggest that this was driven more by political motivation, to keep to their commitment to get kids back to school, than it was to prevent the spread of the virus. This was over a month after they knew about the Kent variant. By the end of January the death rate in England (20 per million) was double that in Wales, NI and Scotland. Despite all the new info and experience built up since March and the modelling that clearly demonstrated there would be a significant peak in January the BB still managed to feck it up and preside over a disastrous winter death toll.
tc27
Posts: 2532
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:18 pm

Dogbert wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:05 am
tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:16 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:14 am Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Image
Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable
Scotland reaps dividend of Covid response that diverged from England’s
Imposing a winter lockdown earlier and prioritising care home vaccinations have kept death rate lower

https://www.ft.com/content/e1eddd2f-cb0 ... 83810fae8d
Cant get through the FT paywall but have read that a few days ago.

Not sure really - difference between England and Scotland less than variation between worst and best English region with same or greater pops - to put it another way if Scotland was recorded as an English region it would be a well performing (2nd best) but not exceptional one. The second point is the new variant (which is thought to have come from a single person) really hammered England in particular. Anyway NI appears to be the best performing UK nation so thats surely the model?

My basic analysis is their is a fag paper between policy in different parts of the UK but that the timing was better for Scotland and NI (earlier in the cycle).

Secondly seems to be repeating the error Devi Shridar et al made in the summer in claiming the virus was eliminated in the summer which was based on ignoring deaths recorded every day by NRS. It clear (and has being admitted) that the SGs epidemiological modelling was significantly underestimated the prevalence of COVID-19 in Scotland over the summer.

Prof Woolhouse had some interesting thoughts on this : https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/scotl ... ser-887986
Top
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1783
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:28 am
tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:16 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:14 am Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...
Spoiler
Show
Image
Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable
The H69/V70 started detectable growth in Aug 2020. Strangely Demark seemed to get it under control in Nov, we didn't.
uk variant.JPG
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf
From that article it looks like the so called “UK or Kent” variant independently arose in many different countries, some countries had it before the UK. Which does lead to the question: why did it become the dominant variant in the UK but not the other countries?
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 3698
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:51 pm

Calculon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:06 pm
Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:28 am
tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 10:16 am

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable
The H69/V70 started detectable growth in Aug 2020. Strangely Demark seemed to get it under control in Nov, we didn't.
uk variant.JPG
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf
From that article it looks like the so called “UK or Kent” variant independently arose in many different countries, some countries had it before the UK. Which does lead to the question: why did it become the dominant variant in the UK but not the other countries?
It may have done. Many countries don't have anywhere near the sequencing rates of the UK.
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1783
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

may have done what?
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 3698
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:51 pm

Calculon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:10 pm may have done what?
May have become the dominant strain in other countries. The table in the results gives the raw numbers, but doesn't seem to say how many sequences were run. The fewer sequences you run, the less accurate the data will be on which is the dominant strain.
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1783
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

Oh, I guess, if that is the case then clearly the reasoning behind the UK’s worse infection rate isn’t due to having a more transmissible variant.
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 3698
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:51 pm

Calculon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:26 pm Oh, I guess, if that is the case then clearly the reasoning behind the UK’s worse infection rate isn’t due to having a more transmissible variant.
What? No. Sequencing is not testing. Testing is just a yes/no. Sequencing then determines which variant. It was in the news a while ago, that the UK sequences far far more than any other european country, and that there's a chance the the UK variant didn't start in the UK, it was simply where it was first detected (though I think now they may have found patient zero for it).
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1783
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

From my partial reading of the article posted by ih: The "UK" variant wasn't first detected in the uk. it has arisen independently several times so there is in a way several patient zeros
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

Raggs wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:28 pm
Calculon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:26 pm Oh, I guess, if that is the case then clearly the reasoning behind the UK’s worse infection rate isn’t due to having a more transmissible variant.
What? No. Sequencing is not testing. Testing is just a yes/no. Sequencing then determines which variant. It was in the news a while ago, that the UK sequences far far more than any other european country, and that there's a chance the the UK variant didn't start in the UK, it was simply where it was first detected (though I think now they may have found patient zero for it).
I believe that the UK has performed almost half the total global Coronavirus sequencing performed since the start of the pandemic - I saw a figure of 44% somewhere
User avatar
Calculon
Posts: 1783
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 pm

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited sequencing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.
Last edited by Calculon on Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Biffer
Posts: 9142
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

Calculon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:27 pm That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited testing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.
And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
User avatar
JM2K6
Posts: 9797
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:43 am

This is a really good article on the practicalities of transmission in schools

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ation.html
User avatar
FalseBayFC
Posts: 3554
Joined: Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:19 pm

Biffer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:29 pm
Calculon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:27 pm That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited testing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.
And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.
You'd have to analyse age factors as well as the co-morbidity prevalence in the population. UK has high levels of lifestyle diseases like obesity and diabetes and a fairly mature population.
dpedin
Posts: 2975
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:35 am

FalseBayFC wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:05 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:29 pm
Calculon wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:27 pm That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited testing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.
And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.
You'd have to analyse age factors as well as the co-morbidity prevalence in the population. UK has high levels of lifestyle diseases like obesity and diabetes and a fairly mature population.
This is not correct!

Analysis of nations performance in managing covid19 have shown that none of these factors influence a countries outcomes - Japan has a more aged population, NZ has a higher % of obesity, Germany has a higher level of diabetes in their pop, etc. These factors along with pop size, pop density, etc cannot be used to explain nor excuse the poor performance of the UK in terms of case numbers and deaths per million. In every case a country can be identified with the same or 'worse' issues yet have performed much better than the UK. Researchers tend to suggest it has been the individual countries' Governments PH preparedness, PH policies, speed of response and how they have implemented their PH policies on the ground that have made the difference.
tc27
Posts: 2532
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:18 pm

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?
User avatar
Marylandolorian
Posts: 1247
Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:47 pm
Location: Amerikanuak

Good to see and hoping that others do the same

REUTERS-
Merck & Co Inc will help make rival Johnson & Johnson's single-shot COVID-19 vaccine in a partnership set to be announced on Tuesday by U.S. President Joe Biden, a White House official said.
User avatar
FalseBayFC
Posts: 3554
Joined: Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:19 pm

dpedin wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:58 pm
FalseBayFC wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 3:05 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:29 pm

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.
You'd have to analyse age factors as well as the co-morbidity prevalence in the population. UK has high levels of lifestyle diseases like obesity and diabetes and a fairly mature population.
This is not correct!

Analysis of nations performance in managing covid19 have shown that none of these factors influence a countries outcomes - Japan has a more aged population, NZ has a higher % of obesity, Germany has a higher level of diabetes in their pop, etc. These factors along with pop size, pop density, etc cannot be used to explain nor excuse the poor performance of the UK in terms of case numbers and deaths per million. In every case a country can be identified with the same or 'worse' issues yet have performed much better than the UK. Researchers tend to suggest it has been the individual countries' Governments PH preparedness, PH policies, speed of response and how they have implemented their PH policies on the ground that have made the difference.
UK has almost the highest level of obesity in Europe. Here in SA, patients with covid and obesity had a very grim outlook.
Who knows what would have happened if Covid had run through the PI and Maori communities in NZ. Japan also has a life expectancy way above that of the UK so its safe to say that their oldies are in better shape.
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

tc27 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:08 pm If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?
This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet
Post Reply