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.OverThere
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Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:27 pm

Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:21 pm Which leads to the question why ?

If the virus is in the wild in Ireland, which it is, have those susceptible to its worst effects mostly got it already; or has the virus subtly changed so that it doesn't affect people so badly ?
A bit of both, but I suspect the most vulnerable are keeping well out of danger. Masks, no pubs/restaurants, and definitely no meat factories.
I suspect too that like my dad they are steering well clear of care homes.
Duff Paddy
Posts: 289
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:55 am

Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:21 pm Which leads to the question why ?

If the virus is in the wild in Ireland, which it is, have those susceptible to its worst effects mostly got it already; or has the virus subtly changed so that it doesn't affect people so badly ?
Yep it just doesn’t add up
Duff Paddy
Posts: 289
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:55 am

.OverThere wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pm
Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:21 pm Which leads to the question why ?

If the virus is in the wild in Ireland, which it is, have those susceptible to its worst effects mostly got it already; or has the virus subtly changed so that it doesn't affect people so badly ?
A bit of both, but I suspect the most vulnerable are keeping well out of danger. Masks, no pubs/restaurants, and definitely no meat factories.
I suspect too that like my dad they are steering well clear of care homes.
They’re not though. We saw this go through the over 60’s in Milan for a shortcut. I for most over 60’s are not taking this that seriously for the past couple of months - they were are the start - so where are the hospital admissions?
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iarmhí
Posts: 376
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Location: Dublin

CM11 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pm
Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:21 pm Which leads to the question why ?

If the virus is in the wild in Ireland, which it is, have those susceptible to its worst effects mostly got it already; or has the virus subtly changed so that it doesn't affect people so badly ?
Infection control for the most vulnerable has possibly worked as intended?

Meanwhile everyone else has relaxed to the extent that it's slowly spreading through the healthy population.

In related news, our youngest has cold symptoms and mild fever. :shock:

Our first illness in the house since Jan. Just before returning to school. :mad:

Not having the GP consultation until tomorrow lunchtime so if they send him for test, won't be until the weekend before we know. Fun.
Your youngest should be grand.

Just keep the distance from your folks
ticketlessinseattle
Posts: 63
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:00 pm

bored experts ; anyone taken an inter city train recently ? may have to take a few trips via taxi and train in the coming weeks ; (Dublin to Kilkenny so about 1.5 hours on train each way) ; assuming I;m wearing a mask I;m guessing its minimal risk in both forms of transport ? how risky it is once I get to Kilkenny is a different issue
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CM11
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iarmhí wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:41 pm
CM11 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pm
Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:21 pm Which leads to the question why ?

If the virus is in the wild in Ireland, which it is, have those susceptible to its worst effects mostly got it already; or has the virus subtly changed so that it doesn't affect people so badly ?
Infection control for the most vulnerable has possibly worked as intended?

Meanwhile everyone else has relaxed to the extent that it's slowly spreading through the healthy population.

In related news, our youngest has cold symptoms and mild fever. :shock:

Our first illness in the house since Jan. Just before returning to school. :mad:

Not having the GP consultation until tomorrow lunchtime so if they send him for test, won't be until the weekend before we know. Fun.
Your youngest should be grand.

Just keep the distance from your folks
Ah, I'm not worried from his perspective but if he has it everyone else misses the start of school. And he's starting primary so will miss out on an already stressful start.
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Leinsterman
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My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
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Gav
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Leinsterman wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
Murderer! Resign from whatever it is you do immediately!
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CM11
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Leinsterman wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
Hopefully. He's not very sick and without the mild fever would have met the recent guidance to attend school. Friend of the daughter had a cold recently, tested negative, so it could just be something doing the rounds. We've no idea where from though, slight chance it was the daughter's friend, I suppose, but they had minimal contact.
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Leinsterman
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Gav wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:58 pm
Leinsterman wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
Murderer! Resign from whatever it is you do immediately!
It's alright. We didn't go to Kildare :lol:
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Leinsterman
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CM11 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:00 pm
Leinsterman wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
Hopefully. He's not very sick and without the mild fever would have met the recent guidance to attend school. Friend of the daughter had a cold recently, tested negative, so it could just be something doing the rounds. We've no idea where from though, slight chance it was the daughter's friend, I suppose, but they had minimal contact.
What the last few months have shown me is how possible it is to stay free from colds etc when you have minimal contact with other families. The minute the kids go near each other though - you're fucked!!!! From March until the beginning of August, not one of us had so much as a sniffle.
Covid seems bizare though because they don't seem to be spreaders of it. Can't say you blame the experts back in March for saying kids were mini Typhoid Marys - they pretty much spread everything else remarkably effectively.
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CM11
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Leinsterman wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:04 pm
CM11 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:00 pm
Leinsterman wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
Hopefully. He's not very sick and without the mild fever would have met the recent guidance to attend school. Friend of the daughter had a cold recently, tested negative, so it could just be something doing the rounds. We've no idea where from though, slight chance it was the daughter's friend, I suppose, but they had minimal contact.
What the last few months have shown me is how possible it is to stay free from colds etc when you have minimal contact with other families. The minute the kids go near each other though - you're fucked!!!! From March until the beginning of August, not one of us had so much as a sniffle.
Covid seems bizare though because they don't seem to be spreaders of it. Can't say you blame the experts back in March for saying kids were mini Typhoid Marys - they pretty much spread everything else remarkably effectively.
Very true!
Blackrock Bullet
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Duff Paddy wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:09 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:55 pm I don't see what's bizarre about it.

The cases have been rising for around 3 weeks, increased deaths should only really be started to be seen right now. The cases remain amongst the young and this is reflected in the hospital figures.

We have to stop comparing to March time when we were miles behind the tracking of this virus.

The death rate will likely be down a bit generally because of some better treatments but I don't share Cam's optimism on it being less virulent, we are just seeing closer to reality on how fatal this is.
Where is the corresponding increase in hospitalisations or ICU admissions? It most certainly is bizarre
1.7% of cases until August ended up in ICU.

With significantly more testing (finding say 5 times as many cases as before) and a younger profile of cases, say it’s 0.2% in reality.

2k-3k cases in the last months might only end up with a handful in ICU.
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Camroc2
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Blackrock Bullet wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:18 pm
Duff Paddy wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:09 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:55 pm I don't see what's bizarre about it.

The cases have been rising for around 3 weeks, increased deaths should only really be started to be seen right now. The cases remain amongst the young and this is reflected in the hospital figures.

We have to stop comparing to March time when we were miles behind the tracking of this virus.

The death rate will likely be down a bit generally because of some better treatments but I don't share Cam's optimism on it being less virulent, we are just seeing closer to reality on how fatal this is.
Where is the corresponding increase in hospitalisations or ICU admissions? It most certainly is bizarre
1.7% of cases until August ended up in ICU.

With significantly more testing (finding say 5 times as many cases as before) and a younger profile of cases, say it’s 0.2% in reality.

2k-3k cases in the last months might only end up with a handful in ICU.
So why are we not opening up ?
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iarmhí
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Government still going after Hogan.

Saying he clearly breached the guidelines.
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Camroc2
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iarmhí wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:27 pm Government still going after Hogan.

Saying he clearly breached the guidelines.
I'm not sure Ursula will like individual governments trying to control whether her Commisioners stay or go.
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iarmhí
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Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:31 pm
iarmhí wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:27 pm Government still going after Hogan.

Saying he clearly breached the guidelines.
I'm not sure Ursula will like individual governments trying to control whether her Commisioners stay or go.
She should tell the Irish government to stay out of EU Commission business.

Imagine the fuel this can of worms would give cunts like Orban
Blackrock Bullet
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Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:26 pm
Blackrock Bullet wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:18 pm
Duff Paddy wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:09 pm

Where is the corresponding increase in hospitalisations or ICU admissions? It most certainly is bizarre
1.7% of cases until August ended up in ICU.

With significantly more testing (finding say 5 times as many cases as before) and a younger profile of cases, say it’s 0.2% in reality.

2k-3k cases in the last months might only end up with a handful in ICU.
So why are we not opening up ?
The country?

Because they are still scared of losing control of the virus and another repeat of March...? You don’t need to ask me my opinion of their cautious approach. :smile:

I pointed out the realities of the case numbers for a few months. We were always talking about the reported numbers early on being wildly distorted and the danger of football style reporting of them.

I’m not discounting that the virus might not be as virulent as before, but I still think we need to see more evidence.
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EnergiseR
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Shit buzz Stats. We are pretty attuned to the various viruses each year due to our young fella and we have a window from June to August when he is grand. The colds and temps always kick off towards the end of August until about April/May. The thing that they kick off in October/November is inaccurate in that they absolutely take off then and calm down towards March/April. Multiple versions of colds and flus give kids a temp which is going to fück things up royally. I reckon we bin the thermometers
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EnergiseR
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Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:31 pm
iarmhí wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:27 pm Government still going after Hogan.

Saying he clearly breached the guidelines.
I'm not sure Ursula will like individual governments trying to control whether her Commisioners stay or go.
It's astonishing what Leo and Micheál are doing. I'm voting for Jim Corr next time out
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CM11
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EnergiseR wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:34 pm Shit buzz Stats. We are pretty attuned to the various viruses each year due to our young fella and we have a window from June to August when he is grand. The colds and temps always kick off towards the end of August until about April/May. The thing that they kick off in October/November is inaccurate in that they absolutely take off then and calm down towards March/April. Multiple versions of colds and flus give kids a temp which is going to fück things up royally. I reckon we bin the thermometers
👍

Interesting on it all kicking off again in August. Hopefully nothing.
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EnergiseR
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CM11 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:44 pm
EnergiseR wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:34 pm Shit buzz Stats. We are pretty attuned to the various viruses each year due to our young fella and we have a window from June to August when he is grand. The colds and temps always kick off towards the end of August until about April/May. The thing that they kick off in October/November is inaccurate in that they absolutely take off then and calm down towards March/April. Multiple versions of colds and flus give kids a temp which is going to fück things up royally. I reckon we bin the thermometers
👍

Interesting on it all kicking off again in August. Hopefully nothing.
Presumably school related usually
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Risteard
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Norma Foley needs to find alternatives to "in the first instance".
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Camroc2
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23 in hospital, 4 in ICU, 3 on ventilators.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/ne ... t-2020.pdf
HGMTSP
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Hogan is toast.
Botha Boy
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CM11 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pm
Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:21 pm Which leads to the question why ?

If the virus is in the wild in Ireland, which it is, have those susceptible to its worst effects mostly got it already; or has the virus subtly changed so that it doesn't affect people so badly ?
Infection control for the most vulnerable has possibly worked as intended?

Meanwhile everyone else has relaxed to the extent that it's slowly spreading through the healthy population.

In related news, our youngest has cold symptoms and mild fever. :shock:

Our first illness in the house since Jan. Just before returning to school. :mad:

Not having the GP consultation until tomorrow lunchtime so if they send him for test, won't be until the weekend before we know. Fun.
The virus arrived in Spring and has cut a swath thru Europe. A huge spike in additional deaths in March/April/May. The median age of death in Ireland was 84, 90% had existing illnesses of various kinds, ~60% passed away in old folks care homes and only 88 died in ICUs ... they never got that far.

So the virus took the most infirm in our society and at 84 already above the average life expectancy in Ireland of 82 years.

Social distancing certainly should have impacted the rate of transmission of the virus but all in all very few folks are dying of Covid since the start of June.

Once the highly susceptible have been impacted (and many susceptible will still remain in society if they were properly cocooned), there are other factors such as seasonality rise in Vitamin D, sunshine, etc) that mean the impact of certain respiratory viruses is less in dry, warm conditions.

This pattern is mimicked across all of Western Europe and the temperate climates of the US. Once the initial wave of infection passes thru, the level of sickness and pathology is hugely reduced.


So how do we explain the rise in positive Covid test results across Europe in July/August but with no associated jump in sickness, hospitalisation and fatality?

The RT-PCR test recognises sequences of the RNA from the SARS-CoV-2 virus and translates it into DNA using Reverse Transcriptase (RT). That DNA is massively amplified by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) which allows us to measure the DNA signal and decide whether the virus is present. This is an immensely powerful analytical tool but they always come with a downside. In this case, you are typically infectious with Covid19 for 7-10 days, but the PCR test will give you a positive result over 20-30 days. This means you will test positive for a lot of folks who are not infectious ie, capable of spreading the disease.

We have already seen that around 85% of folks are "asymptomatic" ... a new word that many have learned this year. It means that they are testing positive, but are not showing any symptoms. Now the jury seems to out whether the asymptomatic can or cannot spread the virus, but lets just note that China will not count a positive test result as a Covid case unless they are showing symptoms of the disease. And since yesterday, the CDC in the US have advised that those who are not showing symptoms of Covid19 infection (cough, temperature, loss of hearing/taste, etc) should not be send for a PCR test.

These RT-PCR diagnostic kits have been rolled out amazingly quickly, but there is a problem with that. Materials, kits and reagents are coming from various sources. Nevermind that there will variation in competency , method transfer and training between different labs. So the use case data is likely to have a lot of measurement variation associated with it, especially if we compared where positive and negative results are coming from and whether they are associated with a specific lab. I am not arguing that the Covid rise is false; just that there is likely to be a lot of measurement noise which will make it hard to discern what is really happening. It would be good to know the level of false positives and negatives by test sites and see what the inter-lab variance was in that regard.

As communities opened up in June/July/Aug across Europe, we expected to see a rise in positive test results. This is also coincidental with a huge rise in testing capacity. As you test more, you will find more (validating somewhat the Donald in this regard ... :lol: ) , but we are not seeing a corresponding rise in sickness, pathology and death. The current public health advice in Ireland is that we need to hold firm to avoid a dangerous second wave, but there is barely a tick-up in hospitalisation across Europe as the number of positive PCR test results increases. The level of Excess Deaths (we saw a huge spike in such deaths in Mar-May this year assumed to be Covid related) is now identical to 2017, 2018 and 2019, which suggests that the pandemic wave associated with Covid 19 has passed.

The virus is still in the community so we still need to protect the vulnerable - the aged, those with co-morbidities (diabetes, chronic respiratory conditions, etc) - but the young and fit should be allowed to back about their business as long as we continue to maintain physical distancing and good personal hygiene. The young are generally unimpacted by Covid19 unless they have a pre-existing condition and allowing the rest of the community to be exposed to the virus will ultimately protect the remaining vulnerable in our society until a vaccine is available. Then we vaccinate the vulnerable as the rest do not appear to need it.

This pattern of infection followed by a complete reduction in pathology is consistent around the world, except there are differences in the profiles whether you are in the northern or Southern Hemispheres. With New Zealand for example, they have done a great job to protect their society so far. But those who are susceptible to the virus are still there and at risk if the virus now takes hold in the same way it has in less isolatable countries around the world.


This should come as good news as most of us in Ireland have kids returning to school this week. The young are more likely to be struck by lightning than to die to Covid19. But we still need to worry about kids, teachers and relatives with co-morbidities so that they are protected appropriately.
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EnergiseR
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HGMTSP wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:06 pmHogan is toast.
It beggars belief what they have done here. This will go down in European Commission history as one of the stupidest things a member state has ever done.
Duff Paddy
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EnergiseR wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:55 am
HGMTSP wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:06 pmHogan is toast.
It beggars belief what they have done here. This will go down in European Commission history as one of the stupidest things a member state has ever done.
It is complete madness. When Leo piled in the writing was on the wall.
Duff Paddy
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Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:36 pm 23 in hospital, 4 in ICU, 3 on ventilators.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/ne ... t-2020.pdf
Serve the fucking coffee already
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EnergiseR
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Duff Paddy wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:02 am
EnergiseR wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:55 am
HGMTSP wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:06 pmHogan is toast.
It beggars belief what they have done here. This will go down in European Commission history as one of the stupidest things a member state has ever done.
It is complete madness. When Leo piled in the writing was on the wall.
I've given him the benefit of the doubt but he is a populist idiot. They all are these days. We live in a mega Jon Ronson world of You Have Been Publicly Shamed where every transgression is gleefully jumped on. Though some are more guilty than others but the reasons for this are all wrapped up in hard left ideas of power and patriarchal structures. Hence look at the amount of attention given to Mary Lou and her no mask terror fest v Phil's collecting documents ramble.
Botha Boy
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EnergiseR wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:28 am
Duff Paddy wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:02 am
EnergiseR wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:55 am

It beggars belief what they have done here. This will go down in European Commission history as one of the stupidest things a member state has ever done.
It is complete madness. When Leo piled in the writing was on the wall.
I've given him the benefit of the doubt but he is a populist idiot. They all are these days. We live in a mega Jon Ronson world of You Have Been Publicly Shamed where every transgression is gleefully jumped on. Though some are more guilty than others but the reasons for this are all wrapped up in hard left ideas of power and patriarchal structures. Hence look at the amount of attention given to Mary Lou and her no mask terror fest v Phil's collecting documents ramble.
In Europe, you can travel the Schengen area, go on holiday to foreign countries and countries like Germany have lower per capita Covid deaths than we do. They may deem this to be a minor sin and that Phil’s bluster is better employed countering post-Brexit Britain.
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Hobo Hooker
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Botha Boy wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:47 pm
CM11 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pm
Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:21 pm Which leads to the question why ?

If the virus is in the wild in Ireland, which it is, have those susceptible to its worst effects mostly got it already; or has the virus subtly changed so that it doesn't affect people so badly ?
Infection control for the most vulnerable has possibly worked as intended?

Meanwhile everyone else has relaxed to the extent that it's slowly spreading through the healthy population.

In related news, our youngest has cold symptoms and mild fever. :shock:

Our first illness in the house since Jan. Just before returning to school. :mad:

Not having the GP consultation until tomorrow lunchtime so if they send him for test, won't be until the weekend before we know. Fun.
The virus arrived in Spring and has cut a swath thru Europe. A huge spike in additional deaths in March/April/May. The median age of death in Ireland was 84, 90% had existing illnesses of various kinds, ~60% passed away in old folks care homes and only 88 died in ICUs ... they never got that far.

So the virus took the most infirm in our society and at 84 already above the average life expectancy in Ireland of 82 years.

Social distancing certainly should have impacted the rate of transmission of the virus but all in all very few folks are dying of Covid since the start of June.

Once the highly susceptible have been impacted (and many susceptible will still remain in society if they were properly cocooned), there are other factors such as seasonality rise in Vitamin D, sunshine, etc) that mean the impact of certain respiratory viruses is less in dry, warm conditions.

This pattern is mimicked across all of Western Europe and the temperate climates of the US. Once the initial wave of infection passes thru, the level of sickness and pathology is hugely reduced.


So how do we explain the rise in positive Covid test results across Europe in July/August but with no associated jump in sickness, hospitalisation and fatality?

The RT-PCR test recognises sequences of the RNA from the SARS-CoV-2 virus and translates it into DNA using Reverse Transcriptase (RT). That DNA is massively amplified by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) which allows us to measure the DNA signal and decide whether the virus is present. This is an immensely powerful analytical tool but they always come with a downside. In this case, you are typically infectious with Covid19 for 7-10 days, but the PCR test will give you a positive result over 20-30 days. This means you will test positive for a lot of folks who are not infectious ie, capable of spreading the disease.

We have already seen that around 85% of folks are "asymptomatic" ... a new word that many have learned this year. It means that they are testing positive, but are not showing any symptoms. Now the jury seems to out whether the asymptomatic can or cannot spread the virus, but lets just note that China will not count a positive test result as a Covid case unless they are showing symptoms of the disease. And since yesterday, the CDC in the US have advised that those who are not showing symptoms of Covid19 infection (cough, temperature, loss of hearing/taste, etc) should not be send for a PCR test.

These RT-PCR diagnostic kits have been rolled out amazingly quickly, but there is a problem with that. Materials, kits and reagents are coming from various sources. Nevermind that there will variation in competency , method transfer and training between different labs. So the use case data is likely to have a lot of measurement variation associated with it, especially if we compared where positive and negative results are coming from and whether they are associated with a specific lab. I am not arguing that the Covid rise is false; just that there is likely to be a lot of measurement noise which will make it hard to discern what is really happening. It would be good to know the level of false positives and negatives by test sites and see what the inter-lab variance was in that regard.

As communities opened up in June/July/Aug across Europe, we expected to see a rise in positive test results. This is also coincidental with a huge rise in testing capacity. As you test more, you will find more (validating somewhat the Donald in this regard ... :lol: ) , but we are not seeing a corresponding rise in sickness, pathology and death. The current public health advice in Ireland is that we need to hold firm to avoid a dangerous second wave, but there is barely a tick-up in hospitalisation across Europe as the number of positive PCR test results increases. The level of Excess Deaths (we saw a huge spike in such deaths in Mar-May this year assumed to be Covid related) is now identical to 2017, 2018 and 2019, which suggests that the pandemic wave associated with Covid 19 has passed.

The virus is still in the community so we still need to protect the vulnerable - the aged, those with co-morbidities (diabetes, chronic respiratory conditions, etc) - but the young and fit should be allowed to back about their business as long as we continue to maintain physical distancing and good personal hygiene. The young are generally unimpacted by Covid19 unless they have a pre-existing condition and allowing the rest of the community to be exposed to the virus will ultimately protect the remaining vulnerable in our society until a vaccine is available. Then we vaccinate the vulnerable as the rest do not appear to need it.

This pattern of infection followed by a complete reduction in pathology is consistent around the world, except there are differences in the profiles whether you are in the northern or Southern Hemispheres. With New Zealand for example, they have done a great job to protect their society so far. But those who are susceptible to the virus are still there and at risk if the virus now takes hold in the same way it has in less isolatable countries around the world.


This should come as good news as most of us in Ireland have kids returning to school this week. The young are more likely to be struck by lightning than to die to Covid19. But we still need to worry about kids, teachers and relatives with co-morbidities so that they are protected appropriately.
good post :thumbup:
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Hobo Hooker
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EnergiseR wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:28 am
Duff Paddy wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:02 am
EnergiseR wrote: Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:55 am

It beggars belief what they have done here. This will go down in European Commission history as one of the stupidest things a member state has ever done.
It is complete madness. When Leo piled in the writing was on the wall.
I've given him the benefit of the doubt but he is a populist idiot. They all are these days. We live in a mega Jon Ronson world of You Have Been Publicly Shamed where every transgression is gleefully jumped on. Though some are more guilty than others but the reasons for this are all wrapped up in hard left ideas of power and patriarchal structures. Hence look at the amount of attention given to Mary Lou and her no mask terror fest v Phil's collecting documents ramble.
meanwhile, whilst we all clutch our pearls and tut at Hogan for being such a brazen murderer, SF are once again showing why they are the party of the people in NI https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.4339151
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Leinsterman
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.OverThere wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pm
Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:21 pm Which leads to the question why ?

If the virus is in the wild in Ireland, which it is, have those susceptible to its worst effects mostly got it already; or has the virus subtly changed so that it doesn't affect people so badly ?
A bit of both, but I suspect the most vulnerable are keeping well out of danger. Masks, no pubs/restaurants, and definitely no meat factories.
I suspect too that like my dad they are steering well clear of care homes.
That's what the RCSI experts are reckoning. Social distancing, procedures to protect the vulnerable in care homes, increased hygiene, concerts and theatres etc closed. It's all having an effect to limit the spread through older groups of people.
However, they're still concerned about how it affects younger people, even those who are asymptomatic and are seeing increased cases of myocarditis etc among this cohort.
ticketlessinseattle
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iarmhí wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:33 pm
Camroc2 wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:31 pm
iarmhí wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:27 pm Government still going after Hogan.

Saying he clearly breached the guidelines.
I'm not sure Ursula will like individual governments trying to control whether her Commisioners stay or go.
She should tell the Irish government to stay out of EU Commission business.

Imagine the fuel this can of worms would give cunts like Orban
its an Irish citizen breaking every Covid ....and a few other rules/laws on Irish soil in a global pandemic where citizens are being asked and obliged to take serious hits ; the government are supposed to turn a blind eye ? its not like they're telling her to fire him, they're confirming that he breached guidelines
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Camroc2
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If you kept the hyperbole out of it, people might take you more seriously.
ticketlessinseattle
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hyperbole ? what have I said that isn't accurate ? - the fcuking ejit broke every rule out there, government called him on it - end of. you've lads on here saying its the worst move by a government in the history of the EU, that it gives the likes of Orban ammunition and assorted other outrage.....if you want to call out hyperbole maybe scroll back a few posts - and yeah, the Shinners can fcuk off because they're as bad attending funerals....happy ?
Duff Paddy
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I think Hogan has a point about the 14 quarantine. It’s pointless if the person has had their covid test and knows they are negative.
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Camroc2
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And this is exactly what a "witch hunt" atmosphere creates :
Over 70% of people across all socio-economic groups believed that someone who contracts Covid-19 has been careless or reckless in following public health advice, according to a survey carried out by the ESRI.

The research by the Economic and Social Research Institute found that fear of being blamed may be a barrier to arranging a test quickly when symptoms appear.
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/202 ... s-ireland/

Creating an atmosphere of fear means that people are afraid to come forward which means we have community outbreaks that no one is aware of. A virus is a virus, and doesn't know or care if you have been self isolating or not, or what exactly comprises "essential travel", or whether there were 50 people at the wedding you attended, or 80. And there should be no blame attached to catching covid - it is just unfortunate, it can and does happen to anyone.

Yet we are creating an atmosphere of blame and finger pointing, which does nothing in our fight against covid except undermine it.
ticketlessinseattle
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ffs - speaking of hyperbole ?! its got valid point about people being afraid to get tested ; come out that they're positive - Hogan was being an utter Cnut and giving 2 fingers to everyone else ; lets not conflate the 2
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