A bit of both, but I suspect the most vulnerable are keeping well out of danger. Masks, no pubs/restaurants, and definitely no meat factories.
I suspect too that like my dad they are steering well clear of care homes.
A bit of both, but I suspect the most vulnerable are keeping well out of danger. Masks, no pubs/restaurants, and definitely no meat factories.
They’re not though. We saw this go through the over 60’s in Milan for a shortcut. I for most over 60’s are not taking this that seriously for the past couple of months - they were are the start - so where are the hospital admissions?.OverThere wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pmA bit of both, but I suspect the most vulnerable are keeping well out of danger. Masks, no pubs/restaurants, and definitely no meat factories.
I suspect too that like my dad they are steering well clear of care homes.
Your youngest should be grand.CM11 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pmInfection control for the most vulnerable has possibly worked as intended?
Meanwhile everyone else has relaxed to the extent that it's slowly spreading through the healthy population.
In related news, our youngest has cold symptoms and mild fever.
Our first illness in the house since Jan. Just before returning to school.
Not having the GP consultation until tomorrow lunchtime so if they send him for test, won't be until the weekend before we know. Fun.
Ah, I'm not worried from his perspective but if he has it everyone else misses the start of school. And he's starting primary so will miss out on an already stressful start.iarmhí wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:41 pmYour youngest should be grand.CM11 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pmInfection control for the most vulnerable has possibly worked as intended?
Meanwhile everyone else has relaxed to the extent that it's slowly spreading through the healthy population.
In related news, our youngest has cold symptoms and mild fever.
Our first illness in the house since Jan. Just before returning to school.
Not having the GP consultation until tomorrow lunchtime so if they send him for test, won't be until the weekend before we know. Fun.
Just keep the distance from your folks
Murderer! Resign from whatever it is you do immediately!Leinsterman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
Hopefully. He's not very sick and without the mild fever would have met the recent guidance to attend school. Friend of the daughter had a cold recently, tested negative, so it could just be something doing the rounds. We've no idea where from though, slight chance it was the daughter's friend, I suppose, but they had minimal contact.Leinsterman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
It's alright. We didn't go to KildareGav wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:58 pmMurderer! Resign from whatever it is you do immediately!Leinsterman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
What the last few months have shown me is how possible it is to stay free from colds etc when you have minimal contact with other families. The minute the kids go near each other though - you're fucked!!!! From March until the beginning of August, not one of us had so much as a sniffle.CM11 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:00 pmHopefully. He's not very sick and without the mild fever would have met the recent guidance to attend school. Friend of the daughter had a cold recently, tested negative, so it could just be something doing the rounds. We've no idea where from though, slight chance it was the daughter's friend, I suppose, but they had minimal contact.Leinsterman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
Very true!Leinsterman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:04 pmWhat the last few months have shown me is how possible it is to stay free from colds etc when you have minimal contact with other families. The minute the kids go near each other though - you're fucked!!!! From March until the beginning of August, not one of us had so much as a sniffle.CM11 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:00 pmHopefully. He's not very sick and without the mild fever would have met the recent guidance to attend school. Friend of the daughter had a cold recently, tested negative, so it could just be something doing the rounds. We've no idea where from though, slight chance it was the daughter's friend, I suppose, but they had minimal contact.Leinsterman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:51 pm My two also have a bug and seem to have given it to me.
They must have picked it up from a friend at a play date last Thursday because that's their only real contact in the last week.
The kid they (probably) got it from had similar symptoms to your youngest and the parents had her tested for Covid because they thought she was showing symptoms. Results came back negative.
Covid seems bizare though because they don't seem to be spreaders of it. Can't say you blame the experts back in March for saying kids were mini Typhoid Marys - they pretty much spread everything else remarkably effectively.
1.7% of cases until August ended up in ICU.Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:09 pmWhere is the corresponding increase in hospitalisations or ICU admissions? It most certainly is bizarreBlackrock Bullet wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:55 pm I don't see what's bizarre about it.
The cases have been rising for around 3 weeks, increased deaths should only really be started to be seen right now. The cases remain amongst the young and this is reflected in the hospital figures.
We have to stop comparing to March time when we were miles behind the tracking of this virus.
The death rate will likely be down a bit generally because of some better treatments but I don't share Cam's optimism on it being less virulent, we are just seeing closer to reality on how fatal this is.
So why are we not opening up ?Blackrock Bullet wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:18 pm1.7% of cases until August ended up in ICU.Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:09 pmWhere is the corresponding increase in hospitalisations or ICU admissions? It most certainly is bizarreBlackrock Bullet wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:55 pm I don't see what's bizarre about it.
The cases have been rising for around 3 weeks, increased deaths should only really be started to be seen right now. The cases remain amongst the young and this is reflected in the hospital figures.
We have to stop comparing to March time when we were miles behind the tracking of this virus.
The death rate will likely be down a bit generally because of some better treatments but I don't share Cam's optimism on it being less virulent, we are just seeing closer to reality on how fatal this is.
With significantly more testing (finding say 5 times as many cases as before) and a younger profile of cases, say it’s 0.2% in reality.
2k-3k cases in the last months might only end up with a handful in ICU.
She should tell the Irish government to stay out of EU Commission business.
The country?Camroc2 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:26 pmSo why are we not opening up ?Blackrock Bullet wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:18 pm1.7% of cases until August ended up in ICU.Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:09 pm
Where is the corresponding increase in hospitalisations or ICU admissions? It most certainly is bizarre
With significantly more testing (finding say 5 times as many cases as before) and a younger profile of cases, say it’s 0.2% in reality.
2k-3k cases in the last months might only end up with a handful in ICU.
It's astonishing what Leo and Micheál are doing. I'm voting for Jim Corr next time out
EnergiseR wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:34 pm Shit buzz Stats. We are pretty attuned to the various viruses each year due to our young fella and we have a window from June to August when he is grand. The colds and temps always kick off towards the end of August until about April/May. The thing that they kick off in October/November is inaccurate in that they absolutely take off then and calm down towards March/April. Multiple versions of colds and flus give kids a temp which is going to fück things up royally. I reckon we bin the thermometers
Presumably school related usuallyCM11 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:44 pmEnergiseR wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:34 pm Shit buzz Stats. We are pretty attuned to the various viruses each year due to our young fella and we have a window from June to August when he is grand. The colds and temps always kick off towards the end of August until about April/May. The thing that they kick off in October/November is inaccurate in that they absolutely take off then and calm down towards March/April. Multiple versions of colds and flus give kids a temp which is going to fück things up royally. I reckon we bin the thermometers
Interesting on it all kicking off again in August. Hopefully nothing.
The virus arrived in Spring and has cut a swath thru Europe. A huge spike in additional deaths in March/April/May. The median age of death in Ireland was 84, 90% had existing illnesses of various kinds, ~60% passed away in old folks care homes and only 88 died in ICUs ... they never got that far.CM11 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pmInfection control for the most vulnerable has possibly worked as intended?
Meanwhile everyone else has relaxed to the extent that it's slowly spreading through the healthy population.
In related news, our youngest has cold symptoms and mild fever.
Our first illness in the house since Jan. Just before returning to school.
Not having the GP consultation until tomorrow lunchtime so if they send him for test, won't be until the weekend before we know. Fun.
It is complete madness. When Leo piled in the writing was on the wall.
Serve the fucking coffee alreadyCamroc2 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:36 pm 23 in hospital, 4 in ICU, 3 on ventilators.
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/ne ... t-2020.pdf
I've given him the benefit of the doubt but he is a populist idiot. They all are these days. We live in a mega Jon Ronson world of You Have Been Publicly Shamed where every transgression is gleefully jumped on. Though some are more guilty than others but the reasons for this are all wrapped up in hard left ideas of power and patriarchal structures. Hence look at the amount of attention given to Mary Lou and her no mask terror fest v Phil's collecting documents ramble.Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:02 amIt is complete madness. When Leo piled in the writing was on the wall.
In Europe, you can travel the Schengen area, go on holiday to foreign countries and countries like Germany have lower per capita Covid deaths than we do. They may deem this to be a minor sin and that Phil’s bluster is better employed countering post-Brexit Britain.EnergiseR wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:28 amI've given him the benefit of the doubt but he is a populist idiot. They all are these days. We live in a mega Jon Ronson world of You Have Been Publicly Shamed where every transgression is gleefully jumped on. Though some are more guilty than others but the reasons for this are all wrapped up in hard left ideas of power and patriarchal structures. Hence look at the amount of attention given to Mary Lou and her no mask terror fest v Phil's collecting documents ramble.Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:02 amIt is complete madness. When Leo piled in the writing was on the wall.
good postBotha Boy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:47 pmThe virus arrived in Spring and has cut a swath thru Europe. A huge spike in additional deaths in March/April/May. The median age of death in Ireland was 84, 90% had existing illnesses of various kinds, ~60% passed away in old folks care homes and only 88 died in ICUs ... they never got that far.CM11 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pmInfection control for the most vulnerable has possibly worked as intended?
Meanwhile everyone else has relaxed to the extent that it's slowly spreading through the healthy population.
In related news, our youngest has cold symptoms and mild fever.
Our first illness in the house since Jan. Just before returning to school.
Not having the GP consultation until tomorrow lunchtime so if they send him for test, won't be until the weekend before we know. Fun.
So the virus took the most infirm in our society and at 84 already above the average life expectancy in Ireland of 82 years.
Social distancing certainly should have impacted the rate of transmission of the virus but all in all very few folks are dying of Covid since the start of June.
Once the highly susceptible have been impacted (and many susceptible will still remain in society if they were properly cocooned), there are other factors such as seasonality rise in Vitamin D, sunshine, etc) that mean the impact of certain respiratory viruses is less in dry, warm conditions.
This pattern is mimicked across all of Western Europe and the temperate climates of the US. Once the initial wave of infection passes thru, the level of sickness and pathology is hugely reduced.
So how do we explain the rise in positive Covid test results across Europe in July/August but with no associated jump in sickness, hospitalisation and fatality?
The RT-PCR test recognises sequences of the RNA from the SARS-CoV-2 virus and translates it into DNA using Reverse Transcriptase (RT). That DNA is massively amplified by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) which allows us to measure the DNA signal and decide whether the virus is present. This is an immensely powerful analytical tool but they always come with a downside. In this case, you are typically infectious with Covid19 for 7-10 days, but the PCR test will give you a positive result over 20-30 days. This means you will test positive for a lot of folks who are not infectious ie, capable of spreading the disease.
We have already seen that around 85% of folks are "asymptomatic" ... a new word that many have learned this year. It means that they are testing positive, but are not showing any symptoms. Now the jury seems to out whether the asymptomatic can or cannot spread the virus, but lets just note that China will not count a positive test result as a Covid case unless they are showing symptoms of the disease. And since yesterday, the CDC in the US have advised that those who are not showing symptoms of Covid19 infection (cough, temperature, loss of hearing/taste, etc) should not be send for a PCR test.
These RT-PCR diagnostic kits have been rolled out amazingly quickly, but there is a problem with that. Materials, kits and reagents are coming from various sources. Nevermind that there will variation in competency , method transfer and training between different labs. So the use case data is likely to have a lot of measurement variation associated with it, especially if we compared where positive and negative results are coming from and whether they are associated with a specific lab. I am not arguing that the Covid rise is false; just that there is likely to be a lot of measurement noise which will make it hard to discern what is really happening. It would be good to know the level of false positives and negatives by test sites and see what the inter-lab variance was in that regard.
As communities opened up in June/July/Aug across Europe, we expected to see a rise in positive test results. This is also coincidental with a huge rise in testing capacity. As you test more, you will find more (validating somewhat the Donald in this regard ... ) , but we are not seeing a corresponding rise in sickness, pathology and death. The current public health advice in Ireland is that we need to hold firm to avoid a dangerous second wave, but there is barely a tick-up in hospitalisation across Europe as the number of positive PCR test results increases. The level of Excess Deaths (we saw a huge spike in such deaths in Mar-May this year assumed to be Covid related) is now identical to 2017, 2018 and 2019, which suggests that the pandemic wave associated with Covid 19 has passed.
The virus is still in the community so we still need to protect the vulnerable - the aged, those with co-morbidities (diabetes, chronic respiratory conditions, etc) - but the young and fit should be allowed to back about their business as long as we continue to maintain physical distancing and good personal hygiene. The young are generally unimpacted by Covid19 unless they have a pre-existing condition and allowing the rest of the community to be exposed to the virus will ultimately protect the remaining vulnerable in our society until a vaccine is available. Then we vaccinate the vulnerable as the rest do not appear to need it.
This pattern of infection followed by a complete reduction in pathology is consistent around the world, except there are differences in the profiles whether you are in the northern or Southern Hemispheres. With New Zealand for example, they have done a great job to protect their society so far. But those who are susceptible to the virus are still there and at risk if the virus now takes hold in the same way it has in less isolatable countries around the world.
This should come as good news as most of us in Ireland have kids returning to school this week. The young are more likely to be struck by lightning than to die to Covid19. But we still need to worry about kids, teachers and relatives with co-morbidities so that they are protected appropriately.
meanwhile, whilst we all clutch our pearls and tut at Hogan for being such a brazen murderer, SF are once again showing why they are the party of the people in NI https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.4339151EnergiseR wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:28 amI've given him the benefit of the doubt but he is a populist idiot. They all are these days. We live in a mega Jon Ronson world of You Have Been Publicly Shamed where every transgression is gleefully jumped on. Though some are more guilty than others but the reasons for this are all wrapped up in hard left ideas of power and patriarchal structures. Hence look at the amount of attention given to Mary Lou and her no mask terror fest v Phil's collecting documents ramble.Duff Paddy wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 7:02 amIt is complete madness. When Leo piled in the writing was on the wall.
That's what the RCSI experts are reckoning. Social distancing, procedures to protect the vulnerable in care homes, increased hygiene, concerts and theatres etc closed. It's all having an effect to limit the spread through older groups of people..OverThere wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:29 pmA bit of both, but I suspect the most vulnerable are keeping well out of danger. Masks, no pubs/restaurants, and definitely no meat factories.
I suspect too that like my dad they are steering well clear of care homes.
its an Irish citizen breaking every Covid ....and a few other rules/laws on Irish soil in a global pandemic where citizens are being asked and obliged to take serious hits ; the government are supposed to turn a blind eye ? its not like they're telling her to fire him, they're confirming that he breached guidelines
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/202 ... s-ireland/Over 70% of people across all socio-economic groups believed that someone who contracts Covid-19 has been careless or reckless in following public health advice, according to a survey carried out by the ESRI.
The research by the Economic and Social Research Institute found that fear of being blamed may be a barrier to arranging a test quickly when symptoms appear.